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Forexpeacearmy

Avoiding shorts by farMorning everybody, and Happy New Year, Last time we've discussed some fundamental issues that makes us to focus on higher target where the most reasonable by far our 35K and Bloomberg's 50K ones, but at the same time to not surprise if we get something greater in a longer-term. Because those who directly invests in BTC now, I mean Hedge and Pension funds, they forecast higher targets. Now we have only one driving factor on BTC - not the hash rate, not the mining or other crypto specific indicator but - only "how much big whales would like to invest in BTC". 1% of their assets - be prepared to double of the price, 2% - 4 times... etc. So, with this new reality and rapidly changing fundamentals of the market, we do not dare to sell the BTC because no signs of momentum exhausting stands on the market. In short-term trading, i.e. daily/intraday charts we're aimed on long entry, but intend to use bearish signals and patterns as indicators of retracement and target calculation. For instance - take a look at 4H chart. Here we do know that 24700 is strong daily K-support and daily oversold. Thus, if H&S starts to form here we just use it for target estimation and as indicator of retracement. It shows that H&S target stands accurately around daily support. It makes 24700 area interesting to consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
SHORT SELL OPPORTUNITY IN GBP/AUDREASONS- 1) Daily & weekly trend down as per 200 ema and ichimoku. 2) Upper trendline likely to act as resistance and many traders will book profits there and many will open short positions there. 3) Many newbies are likely to enter after seeing a upside breakout hence fueling the sell orders when they get stopped out. 4) We could have entered on the horizontal resistance but it's so obvious that stop hunting may occur. Kindly trade at your own risk. Good Luck ^_^
Short
by noobieYETpro
Breaking all limitationsMorning everybody, So, our last 1H chart analysis with the diamond has brought small loss to the bears and great result for the bulls probably. But, it is in the past and today we would like to say different things. Right now we only partially could use technical tools to explain BTC price action. It is driven right now mostly by easy money of Institutional investors. They just flood the market with the Trillions that they have. Technical factors doesn't work right now, at least on lower time frames. Our fundamental view that we've released recently sets minimal target for BTC around 50K with most probable target in 2021 around 100 - 150K per coin, but even 400K will not surprise me. Fed will print money actively and all of them gradually stand in pockets of banks and funds. The "institutional" flood just has started. They have invested tens billions, but it will be hundreds of billions (if not trillions) as 3-5% of total assets is absolutely probable level for global portfolio diversification. Technically, in a very short-term our monthly target stands at 30-35K where market is going right now. Based on price action that we see, we come to conclusion that we have volatility breakout pattern here. It has the following features - unstoppable rally that should finished somewhere naturally, we do not predict it, deep retracement then (usually 50-60%) that becomes the best level for BTC accumulation in long term and 3rd stage is final extension. Currently we stand in the first stage when volatility breakout is just forming. The safest way to act is to buy meaningful deeps, pullbacks to fib levels and out around the top, or, at least move stops to breakeven to keep position. Do not sell. For short entry wait for clear bearish reversal pattern on daily/weekly chart. This pattern has to be extended - something like H&S, as we're dealing with big picture. Until it will be formed, better to not struggle with the running train.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Diamonds are the best girls' friendsMorning everybody, Happy Xmas holidays to everybody, this time its three days, which is great (as well as on New Year's day, btw). Well, recent scalp setup to buy deep and out at top has worked nice, but it was rather short-term scenario. On Monday we intend to release Fundamental research on BTC market. As a hint on content - do you know that Grayscale temporary stops accept funds in their BTC Hedge fund? as JP Morgan suggests, it might be the sign of coming retracement. And now take a look at 1H chart that I've prepared. Diamond. If it works, price could re-test former ATH at least, around 20K, which is also 5/8 Fib support on daily chart. It doesn't mean that you have to sell, but this pattern is useful to everybody. Would like to buy? Great, but be aware of this pattern and wait when it works out or fails. If you want to sell - try to take position as close as possible to the trend line with stops above the top. Technically retracement is ripen already as BTC stands overbought at monthly and weekly charts, reaching major monthly 23K target. So, this pattern on 1H chart is worthy of attention, no matter of would you intend to trade it or not.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Safe way is to buy deepsMorning guys, The big monthly step is done on last week, when market hits important monthly 23K target. We understand that BTC is overbought at monthly and weekly chart as well and this fact significantly increases chances for meaningful downside reaction. But, to form the background for this reaction market needs time and prepare some bearish pattern on daily chart that we do not have right now. It means that bearish context on daily chart could appear in the future - right now it is not good idea to sell just because we at monthly strong resistance area. What is better way to act? We suggest that making scalp long trades on daily/intraday charts are safe way to act on coming week. The momentum on the market stands so strong that BTC probably not once, not twice will try to challenge the top. This creates good background to buy deeps on Fib levels. For example, on daily chart in case of pullback to 3/8 support we will get DiNapoli B&B "Buy" trade. Stop could be placed below daily oversold level (blue line), or below 5/8 Fib support. So, we call to not sell by far, waiting for clarity with bearish background (if it appears at all), but focus on momentum trades, buying at Fib levels and out at previous top or other targets stand around. Or, at least moving stops to b/e.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
The only chart that we needMorning folks, So, it seems that our suggestion on breakout was correct and now we need just one picture for discussion. All other near standing targets are completed, including our weekly ~21K target. Now the major picture is a monthly chart. Here we have strong target/resistance cluster, that includes 1.27 butterfly extension all time AB-CD target and monthly Overbought area. Strong acceleration here suggests that we should go higher, to the next targets, but later. At first touch odds suggests pullback. If it happens as usual - 3/8 pullback to broken ATH around 20K seems reasonable. Thus, if you've missed entry before the rally, it would be better to wait for 23K target and then consider long entry on a retracement. Now there are few things that you could do. We stand just 800$ till target, which is minor potential and we are at daily overbought. This combination hardly could be called as lucky. Still, as we have rally on 1H chart, it is possible consider catching of 3/8 pullbacks of the recent thrust for long entry with moving stops to b/e asap. It's a kind of DiNapoli B&B setup, those who 're familiar with it. But, if you're not brave and skilled enough (as me), it would be better to be patient and focus on 1st scenario...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Aiming on target this time?Morning everybody, So, it seems that we were correct, suggesting BTC preparation for upside action, as downside tendency had no common type of action with reversal. Currently we need to keep an eye on two things. First is, and the most important - market has to stay above broken flag pattern from our previous update. Back drop will be the sign of weakness, suggesting downside continuation. Second - we have the target range, starting from weekly 21070 till ~20.30K area of recent AB=CD pattern. This is probable because of 20K top breakout when more traders could step-in and some stops could be triggered. Thus, if you haven't taken long position inside the flag, you could consider some retracement from most recent swing up. For instance, it might be reverse H&S, (although I"m not sure) that you could use for position taking. Ultimate scenario that relates to D. Trump activity and his success also suggests significant rally well in excess of observed targets. It could happen, for example, if he launch Emergency regime in the US within 1-2 weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Market is building an energyMorning folks, So, BTC slightly has changed the shape of consolidation, turning from triangle to flag shape. But it doesn't change the core. While BTC stands above 16K lows - bullish context stands intact and price is building an energy for upside breakout. There are mostly two reasons for delay of breakout now. This is Overbought condition on higher time frames - monthly and weekly. Second - disappointment in stimulus promised to the market. No pack has followed from the Congress, and, as we suggest no stimulus will be from the Fed next week. But at the same time we see growing political risks and think that something is ripen there. Here is might be the first bell - This could become a catalysts of explosive rally as situation will become hot within next 2 weeks. Meantime, we suggest that current consolidation is good area for BTC accumulation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Context is the sameMorning folks, Market has not shown a lot of activity last week and mostly we keep our scenario valid. Price barely has tested previous ATH and it is correct to say that BTC mostly has touched the level rather than created the new ATH. It means that market's mission around ATH is not finished yet. IT has to either grab stops, wash them out and drop or show the real upside breakout. Keeping all this stuff in mind, as well as overall positive sentiment and expectations stimulus from the Fed - we suggest that last upward leg is yet to happen. Price behavior on 4H chart is not typical for bearish market. Reversal usually happens fast, while here BTC is forming triangle near the top. It looks like preparation for upside breakout. If it takes the shape of butterfly it mostly will be enough to complete our weekly XOP around 21K area. Thus, currently we do not see any reasons to go short by far. It would be better to wait either for XOP completion or real bearish signs with downside triangle breakout etc. Bullish positions could be opened with the stops below butterfly lows. This setup will be broken if BTC drops out of the triangle.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Consolidation before breakout?Morning folks, Last time we've talked that butterfly on daily chart will be the best choice for BTC to complete major 21070$ target. But, market has chosen worse scenario instead, trying to break the top immediately. As a result, it stuck with daily overbought area and stopped at the current levels. Still, current price action is not the fake breakout that suggests deeper downside action. Instead of that we see triangle consolidation right around previous top. It means that BTC is building an energy for breakout and once overbought pressure becomes weaker, we should see another leg up, despite whether it will be just wash&rinse of previous top and stop grabbing or real upside breakout. We suggest no meaningful retracement should happen until BTC hits our target. And the last one - keep an eye on US Presidency turmoil. It seems that something is going on under curtain as D. Trump contesting activity comes on new levels. We will not be surprised if he announces emergency regime. Just control this topic... BTC could be in the center of this event as in recent time it is more gravitated to safe haven features, rather then stock market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
BTC has to finalize major $21070 targetMorning folks, BTC has shown deeper retracement than we thought. Although it was ripening for some time and we even have talked about it earlier, but price has come so close to 20K top that it was seemed major retracement comes after its challenge. Anyway, we have few possible scenarios here, such as downside AB-CD, immediate upside breakout, butterfly and some others. But I talk only on the one that I think most probable. We need the pattern that makes price to stay flat for some time but then let price to finalize weekly 21070. Butterfly fits best for this. We expect that minor pullback should happen in the beginning of the week, somewhere to 17K area that will become the right wing of the butterfly, and then price should re-establish upside action, making challenge of 20K top and last effort to weekly 21070 XOP target. Strong deeper retracement is possible only after that.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
From 18600 to 21070Morning folks, So, in recent few days we've tried to catch at least some minor pullback but BTC erases all hints on retracement. This makes us think that we stand before last upside effort to our weekly 21068$ target. When price stands so close to destination - it is aimed on it, ignoring barriers and showing no meaningful pullbacks, tending directly to the target, like a magnet. This makes us think that BTC probably should stay inside the current range and upward action should be re-established either from 18600, as we hope, forming "222' Buy inside the channel, or, just keeping the same pattern, from the bottom of the channel. Anyway, it seems that we're before last jump to destination point...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback for long entryMorning everybody, Market is tending to nearest tactical target around 21070. Our general suggestion - minor pullback around current levels to ~ 16.70K then upside action to 21070$, grabbing stops around former 20K top and then deeper moderate retracement. The reason why we think that BTC probably should show tactic pause and pullback right now is overbought on weekly and daily chart, drop of hash rate and completion of AB-CD pattern on daily chart as well. This is not the background for short-entry definitely. But if you plan to buy - it would be better to wait for retracement. Besides, even from technical point of view - go long at overbought is not very good decision. The price shape on intraday chart tells me that we could get something of that sort - H&S pattern. It is interesting that its shape suggests target around 16.70K, which in turn is daily Oversold. That is good combination to possess for the last effort to weekly XOP target around 21 068$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Barriers are goneMorning folks, So, in recent 3-4 updates we 've warned on possible resistance areas that could become a reason, barrier for immediate upside continuation and trigger retracement. Now, as market has passed through all targets and levels this resistance cluster is broken and we could consider next upward destinations. On monthly chart this is 23-24K, on weekly chart, and our next target is 21-21.1K - challenge of previous top. Currently market stands at overbought on weekly and daily chart. It means that minor retracement could happen. But this time we focus on very small pullback. We use the same harmonic swing of touching overbought previously and use it in current situation. It suggests that BTC could pullback to 17K area, where is also 3/8 Fib level stands. At the same time, we do not consider levels below 15.4K, as all of them stands under oversold area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
We should not ignore potential bearish patternsMorning folks, Something stands in the air and despite recent rally, it seems that situation is becoming tricky. In a long-term yes - BTC perspective is cloudless, we wait for next $21K target etc. But here is what hesitate me a bit: we're at monthly COP target and Overbought area; Hash rate is dropping; recent jump was due Pfizer news that was strongly overreacted; Finally - D. Trump election contesting topic is becoming more popular and it means that something stands behind this. At least D. Trump presidency risk is still on the table. This makes me think that we should not ignore possible bearish patterns around monthly target. Second - I feel uncomfortable with longer-term investing in BTC right now. Scalp trade is OK, but to buy on longer-term perspective... I want to see healthy pullback, respect of monthly target, clear fundamental background and preferably some pattern that we do not have right now. Taking it all together makes me think that we have above zero chances to get 3-Drive "Sell" closer to the end of next week. Consequently, in the beginning of the next week, we consider a bit deeper retracement, somewhere to 15.5K (or even lower), and then another target around 17050K could be reached. Currently we have to acknowledge that we do not have clear reasons to suggest deep drop by far, as market doesn't show them.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Downside reaction still on the tableMorning folks, We still suggest that market should show reaction on few moments - reaching of monthly 15.5K target, monthly overbought level and dropping of the Hash rate. All these moments suggest at least minor technical response in a way of pullback from the top. Still, as we're dealing with long-term time frames - the range of reaction and timing could be wider than on daily and intraday charts. It lets price to fluctuate around before retracement could get started. This, in turn leads us to consideration of following scenarios. First one is butterfly "Sell", when reaction could start from a bit higher level - around 16.4K. But, we have some doubts because appearing of puny W&R (Wash & Rinse) that grabbed stops from previous top. This is usually bearish pattern, suggesting that downside action could start immediately. So how to place trades with this? If you would like to sell - there are two ways. Take more risk and sell right now we stops above W&R candle. This is risky, but entry price is perfect. And in a case of success - best result. Alternatively- wait for the patterns, either butterfly "Sell", or confirmation of DPRO "Sell" on daily chart that we've mentioned in last update. They are safer, but entry conditions will be different. For the bulls - it is not good time for buying on long-term perspective. For scalp traders, it is possible to consider using of Stop "Buy" order slightly above W&R top. In a case of breakout hardly we will get new W&R and BTC just breaks the top, going higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We would be happy with 13'600$ areaMorning folks, There are a lot of thinks that I would like to say concerning BTC situation, but the scale of update here doesn't let me to do this. Shortly speaking, we see few reasons for retracement on BTC. Our long-term view remains positive, next target, we suggest, stands at ~21070$, but now market needs to relief and take the breath. It was tough run in recent two weeks. Thus, we consider tactical pullback. At the same time we do not consider downside targets below 13600, because this is daily oversold level. Also we do not care much how the downside action happens, as we do not intend to take any short positions. The major thing to us is to see BTC around predefined target where we could buy. But how it will get there - we do not care too much. Approximately, we suggest the shape of price action that you see on the chart. If we will be 100% spot on, then price completes "222" Sell right at 5/8 Fib resistance and starts to form CD leg of larger AB-CD pattern. Take a look that AB=CD destination point stands precisely around 13600 that is 3/8 Fib support on daily chart. We could get some deviations from this shape - either higher ab=cd retracement of "222" Sell, or maybe even double top, but it doesn't change the core. In general we're watching for pullback and would be happy to see BTC around 13'600
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Not good moment for new longsMorning folks, Our 3-Drive pattern is done accurately and now we turn to larger scale - weekly BTC chart. We know that we also have all-time COP target around 15.5K on Monthly chart, but now we have a lot of doubts that price will get there. First is - if you take a look at US 10 year yield , you'll see that it has dropped ~ for 30% in recent two days. This confirms our worst scenario that elections will turn to mutual frauds, accusations, legal claims, social unrest and probes, involving Supreme Court. Difference between candidates are too narrow that makes victory of any candidate fragile and arguable. Other markets do not show yet the reaction and shows the visuality of upward action, especially stocks. But with yields' dropping, any rally are suspcious. Second - BTC hits long-term weekly target and hash rate starts to slow, showing miners capitulation, which also stands not in favor of immediate rally. That's why our conclusion - if you still keep longs, you could try to hold them with some trailing stop, hoping on luck that BTC somehow either spike or creep to 15.5K target. BUT, we do not support an idea of new longs taking right now. For shorts overall background is ripening but it is not ready yet...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC aimed on 14.5-15.5K targetGreetings everybody, So, it was tough week when market sentiment was changing day by day. Once in first three days there was explosive demand for US Bonds and dollar, so that yields has dropped 15% - next two days situation has become drastically different and yield only yesterday has jumped for 5+% indicating decreasing of the pressure on riskier assets and demand for US Dollar. This has let BTC to show another jump. In general, BTC shows better resistance to external pressure compares to other markets. This lets us to suggest that market is aimed on final target around 14.50K that should be hit on coming week. Technically, market has no significant barriers - last major 5/8 Fib level is broken, market is not at overbought. So, it is relatively easy to suggest, say, appearing of 3-Drive "Sell" that lets market to complete it. Potentially we have 15.5K all time target on monthly chart, but here could be different scenarios. 14.5 and 15.5 stands relatively close to each other so, 15.5K might be hit with the same upside swing through 14.5K or after 3-Drive completes the retracement. Unfortunately we're limited with forecasting as the action of this kind probably will be triggered by some breaking news, because it suggests fast action for 1.5K, which is not ordinary, even for BTC. In common situation, it should be some respect of 14.5 target and then upside continuation to 15.5K. But how this happens on a background of elections turmoil is difficult to say. Thus, overall situation suggests no shorts by far. 14.5K target looks as certain, while 15.5K is possible with friendly news background.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Not friendly environmentGreetings everybody, So, BTC almost has reached our daily 14K butterfly target (slightly missed) and then it has become the victim of global tendency - "run into the quality" Sell-off stands everywhere, as investors run into USD and US Bonds. The yields of 10-year Bonds has dropped for 15% just within 3 days. As elections still stand ahead, this process probably is not over yet. If our worst expectations become the reality - a lot of frauds will be with mailing voting, Biden/Tramp gap will be minimal and Supreme court will step in - this process could take longer and pressure on the markets will exacerbate. But this is ultimate scenario. Normally, pressure should start fading in the middle of next week. It means that although it is everything good with BTC and we think that 15K target we will see in perspective of 2-3 weeks, currently it would be better to not buy immediately and wait for deeper retracement. We think that either K-support around 12.20K or 11.35K levels stand among most probable where chance to buy will appear.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
12-12.3K area looks interesting to set the bet on BidenMorning folks, Coming week will be the last before elections turmoil and is promised to be relatively quiet. We treat chances to see stimulus pack as low and recent rally mostly is partial pricing-in of Biden's victory. If it is everything clear what will happen in a case of D.Trump victory, concerning Biden, it seems that 12K-12.3K area looks not bad for long position taking, if you anticipate his victory. Retracement probably will happen by few reasons. First is price has hit daily Oversold and butterfly target on daily chart, but we haven't got yet any meaningful reaction. Second - as we've said, week could be relatively quiet, only GDP release could shake it a bit. Finally, here on 4H chart we see DRPO "Sell" pattern and stop licking type of action on the top. They suggest deeper downside retracement. In a case of Biden win, our monthly COP 15.5K target probably will be reached.... If you believe that D. Trump will win - Sell it, using DRPO pattern that already stands in place.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2