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Short Term XAU Trading StrategyEarlier, gold fell sharply to hit a more than one-week low, pressured by a rebound in the dollar, while investors awaited US non-farm payrolls data to determine the size of the cuts at the US Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. The dollar hovered near a two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. The market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's next policy meeting scheduled for September 17-18, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
61-62K for short entryMorning folks, BTC was not able to escape mass revision of public opinion, concerning next Fed move. Not occasionally last time we've expressed doubts that BTC could reach 67K target. Here we will not speak about all bearish signs that we see. To keep it short we have big bearish engulfing on weekly chart which makes us think that H&S pattern on 4H chart is very likely. Thus, scalpers could watch for 55K area for potential long entry. While our base scenario stands for the daily chart and it is bearish. We intend to watch 61-62K area for potential short entry. Although pullback to 61K is possible, I mark this idea as "bearish" based on our primary object
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Is it really to 67K now?Morning folks, So, we've got what we wanted - BTC dropped and not only to 61K but slightly lower, to 59.5K. The major question now is whether we indeed will go to 67K or deeper retracement comes? In fact, riddle is relatively simple. BTC now stands at strong intraday Fib support area. To keep bullish context, it has to go up right from here. In this case 3-Drive "Sell" might be formed, but it starts right from 67K target. Yes, the big uncertainty exists, as recent drop was relatively fast. But at the same time, risk is not too high as market stands near the possible lows. IF, still downside drop will happen, it will mean that we get deeper downside retracement. Current setup is not perfect, but it has some attractive sides. To take part with it or not today is up to you. It has more uncertainty that our usual setups.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
XAU market awaits US CPI newsXAU Markets Await US CPI News The DXY Index rose 0.3%, reducing the appeal of holding the precious metal. The market is pricing in a 67% chance of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed and a 33% chance of a 50bps rate cut Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week backed the start of rate cuts next month, while expressing confidence that inflation could hit its 2% target. A report on Tuesday showed that while US consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in August, Americans were also growing more concerned about the labor market.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
World gold will reach 2,600 USD/ounce when the Fed cuts interestGeopolitical tensions continue to be a catalyst supporting the gold rally. In today's trading session, XAU/USD is expected to continue to maintain above the 2,500 zone and has the potential to increase further. However, investors should note that if the price closes below 2,499 on the H4 time frame, it could be a sign of a short-term correction. There is no news for gold today, the current trend is still sideways at 2482 and 2510, it can trade in this price range.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
Indecision situationMorning folks, So, pullback that we've discussed on Thu has happened. But now we have two equal patterns on daily chart but in opposite directions. Our elder bearish grabber and new one on the bullish side. If you conservative enough - it would be better to stay aside and wait for clarity. We suggest that bearish pattern looks a bit better, just because of intraday price shape. All upside swings look slow and choppy. At the same time, it doesn't mean that you can't try to trade bullish pattern. Take a look that here we also have reversal bar, suggesting that BTC could move slightly lower. If you want to buy, you could try to use it to open position as close to the grabber's lows as possible. Just to minimize potential risk. If, still, we will be correct concerning bearish domination, next downside target is 54.35$ Fib support.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
XAU Could Surpass All-Time HighThis gold buying trend is expected to remain unchanged in the coming period due to the impact of the current economic situation and geopolitical conflicts. At the same time, consumer prices have fallen after hitting a record high, easing pressure on the market. The focus of gold investors next week is the annual central bank conference at the Fed's Jackson Hole resort. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday, expected to share the prospect of an upcoming Fed rate cut. Positive US inflation data in July has paved the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The market predicts the Fed will cut by 0.25 percentage points at this meeting.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
Keeping the same scenarioMorning folks, Last time we said - no longs until bearish daily grabber is valid. So, it is still valid. But if you do not want to wait when situation will be resolved, or by any other reason you would like to buy - here is the life hack. ;) On 1H chart we have clear "222" buy shape with 56.70K target and strong K-support area. So you could try this strong area and try to take long position. Once minor bounce will happen - move stops to breakeven. So this strategy could let you to minimize risk or even to get some small profit if you're totally wrong. For taking the short position - it is necessary to wait for the bounce, because BTC right now is near strong support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
No longs until 63K is takenMorning folks, So, Thursday plan worked nice - market was around 63K. Now situation is a bit tricky. First is, geopolitical situation is coming to the boiling point. Any activation in Iran will make negative impact on BTC, besides [b ]we have bearish grabber on 10-year bonds , suggesting drop back to 3.65% level. So geopolitical worryings are not in vain. Gold is opened up today as well... Besides, on BTC itself we also have bearish grabber. Situation with sell-off in Japan is also not clear by far. And we get GDP numbers this week. So, BTC could become ones again the major sell-off victim. That's why, until market keeps daily grabber valid we stay aside from any long positions. This risk will be erased if price jumps back above 63K area again.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
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XAU Rising Strongly After Deep FallGold (XAU/USD) rose on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak, although it lacked momentum and remained below $2,400 heading into the European session. Investors remain concerned about the economic slowdown in China and the possibility of a US recession. This, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, should act as a supportive factor for gold. Moreover, expectations of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the US dollar on the defensive, confirming the positive outlook for the non-yielding precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU increased sharply in today's US sessionDespite a slight decline from the early morning, the yellow metal has pared its gains from the day amid selling pressure amid concerns that demand will be sluggish in the coming period. Investors’ concerns were heightened as the official report released on Wednesday showed that the People’s Bank of China continued to hold steady in July. Thus, the bank’s reported gold reserves have remained unchanged for the third consecutive month. According to Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst at the World Gold Council, China’s gold holdings remain at 2,264 tonnes and still account for about 5% of its total reserves.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Gold falls as investors sell offStock markets fell from Asia to North America as investors fled riskier assets while betting that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates quickly to boost US economic growth. "Stocks are falling as the US jobs report (on Friday) showed the US economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, while factories across the US, China and Europe are struggling with weak demand," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its main interest rate again last week and also said it would halve the amount of government bonds it buys. The news of the tightening sent the Japanese yen higher against the US dollar. Tighter monetary policy in Japan, combined with the prospect of an imminent US rate cut, has shifted global investment flows, including the unwinding of the yen yield spread trade.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
57-59K to sellMorning folks, Wow, we've talked about just 60-61K pullback, but BTC just collapsed and has become once again the victim of sell-off. Investors sell "bad assets" to plug holes in balances of "good assets". And from this point of view - BTC is a "Holy cow" of this process. Besides, when 30% of the market is controlled by ETF, I wouldn't be surprised by any action. D. Trump needs as many BTC as he could get and he needs it cheap, so... BlackRock&Co still has a lot of job to do... Obviously patterns that we've discussed last time - just have not been formed, market just dropped, no H&S. So, based on daily picture, BTC is oversold now, but in perspective it is aimed on next downside target at 43K area. Now we're watching for technical bounce, at least to 57-59K area, where we return back to discussion of short entry. Scalpers could try to buy this bounce, if any bullish patterns will be formed on 1H and below. I mark this idea as bullish, because we're watching for the bounce. But our major view is bearish in longer term. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 59-60K areaMorning folks, So, retracement that we've discussed on Mon is started, although we thought it will be from 71K area. But M. East escalation has triggered sell-off in risky assets, and even J. Powell comments was not able to support the market. Now, although our 3-Drive pattern still seems theoretical possible, chances stand in favor our 2nd pattern - H&S. So, if you trade on daily and above time frames, I wouldn't hurry up with entry right now. It seems BTC could drop more. At least we could consider next support of 59-60K area. Just keep an eye on H&S... If you're intraday trader - you could consider bullish setups around potential neckline with two upside targets - 66K and 65.7K . They are resistance on 1H chart: Later, it is possible to consider short position as well, with the H&S pattern. It's obvious.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
#XAUUSD/GOLD breaks out, is it a long-term buying opportunity?After breaking through the resistance zone of 2430-2433, the current gold price is forming a peak around 245x, with the breakout at 2386 giving gold an upward momentum again. The market is very difficult to trade, and the trading trend for the Europe - US session is BUY. Key price areas to watch are 2428-2432 and 2390-2400. If the price fills this liquidity area, it will be an opportunity for us to target the peak zone of 2480-2484. Recommended orders: Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 2429 - 2432 SL 2426 TP 2435 - 2450 - 2373. Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2390 - 2393 SL 2387 TP 2400 - 2430 - 2373. Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 2451-2453 SL 2457 TP 2448 - 2440 - 2432 (small volume).
FX:XAUUSDShort
by wetdyerap
71.65K is the next oneMorning folks, So, our daily bullish setup has worked perfect - grabber has been formed and everything has started. Now BTC in fact has a free space right up to the ATH. So, we suggest that it should be aiming to challenge it. Still, we have another tactic resistance area - trendline on daily chart, based on tops. If we take a look at 4H chart and suggest 3-Drive "Sell" pattern, then it perfectly agrees with the 3rd Drive level - ~71.65K IT doesn't mean that we expect reversal there, although pullback is possible. We just use these extensions to estimate next upside step that BTC could make. Suddenly US bonds yield has dropped sharply which is supportive factor for BTC. Currently we do not see any bearish signs and suggest that BTC will try to reach ATH, if of course coming Fed meeting will not break the game...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Setups for any tasteMorning folks, So, as we've said - don't upset if you missed long entry as we will get the chance later. Now retracement is under way. WE have a few different trading scenarios. First is, those who would like to buy - our B&B "Buy" trade stands very close. Today we could get bullish grabber on daily chart that will be quite welcome. On 4H chart the B&B could take the shape of H&S, or, better to say, its right arm. Thus, those who wants to Sell - keep an eye on 66.50-67K area, where potentially right arm should be formed. Scalp traders also could watch for the bounce from the neckline to the right arm's top, say on 5-15 min chart, patterns etc., as usual. It is the only tricky moment concerning the neck. And this concern is based on 1H downside AB-CD. The problems is CD leg acceleration. The 1.0 AB=CD target is done already, and BTC could try to turn up right from here. But, acceleration tells that 1.618 target might be reach, which is around 62.25$. So, the compromise decision might be is to split position in parts and take it gradually...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Gold prices went upstream, surpassing the 2,400 markGold prices (XAU/USD) continued their recent correction from record highs hit last week and fell to their lowest in more than a week on Monday. US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential election has increased the likelihood of Donald Trump becoming the next US President, increasing expectations of a looser regulatory environment. This, coupled with the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) surprise interest rate cut on Monday, has fueled investor appetite for riskier assets and put heavy pressure on gold - safe haven assets. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's second presidential term is expected to push long-term inflation expectations higher, leading to an increase in US government bond yields. This has had a positive impact on the USD and contributed to promoting money flow away from gold - a non-yielding asset. However, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September limited USD gains and supported XAU/USD in climbing back above the $2,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
Waiting for the deep to buyMorning folks, So, reaction on Biden's out is humble. Not only on BTC but across the board. Today it is a small update as nothing has changed significantly. Finally BTC has broken 66K resistance and now, officially, bearish weekly pattern is cancelled. At the same time, despite minor pullback, we haven't got clear H&S shape that we've counted on. Still, I prefer to wait for deep to buy rather than jump in running train. Previous bearish momentum is still here. Following this logic we could monitor intraday bearish patterns. Not for trading but to recognize starting point of retracement and estimate possible downside target. For now we could get either 3-Drive "Sell" or H&S, if BTC starts dropping right now. Other words speaking - context is bullish, we consider long entry, but watching for proper levels. Of course you could follow your own alternative strategy. Upside nearest target is the same - ATH.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
World gold recovered slightly and is fluctuating around 2406World gold prices tend to recover after plunging in the last trading session of last week. While investors are waiting for important reports at the end of the week, experts predict that the gold market may stabilize at the beginning of the week and will witness fluctuations after the inflation report. However, many opinions believe that the June core personal consumption expenditure index report may not create large price fluctuations. Although gold is likely to decline in the short term, some experts say that will not affect the medium-term prospects of this precious metal. Accordingly, optimistic opinions are that the decline will not last long and gold is still strongly supported by interest rate expectations, geopolitical situation along with uncertainties surrounding the elections.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster