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Forexpeacearmy

6500 or 4600$ ?Morning guys, It seems that our 3-Drive "sell" Setup works nice by far and market comes to the final target, which is lows between 2nd and 3rd drive. Daily grabbers that we've mentioned yesterday have the same destination point. But what will happen next? Well, since upside rally has not bad pace, it is logical to suggest deep retracement, which, in turn, leads us to possible H&S shape. And, as it always happens, the top of right arm is a key to next direction. If BTC market indeed is bullish, it should break 5500$ potential right arm top. In this case we expect failure of H&S and challenge of 6500 area Conversely, downside reversal around 5500$ will trigger H&S pattern, with downside AB=CD target around major daily 3/8 support of 4600-4700$ area. This is our short-term expectations. In nearest 2-3 session we're watching for final leg to 4900 lows and starting of deep upside bounce to 5500$, and then we'll see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Patterns suggest 4900$ areaMorning guys, BTC starts natural reaction on 4H 3-Drive sell pattern that we've discussed in our previous reports. As we mentioned already, depsite nice rally in April, it is long way to go, as market was falling too long and too deep. Thus, to break major downside tendency, BTC has to climb at least above 6500, but better above 8500$. Thus, any fluctuations below 6500$ will keep "222" Sell pattern valid. But this is too long-term discussion. In shorter-term, we've got two side by side bearish grabbers on top. As they coincide with 4H 3-Drive - all three patterns have the same target - 4900$ lows. Thus, if you have bullish view, then it would be better to wait either for upside breakout and erasing of all patterns, or, reaching of th target. Bears could keep positions that were opened with 4H 3-Drive "sell", I suppose, just do not forget to manage stops...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3-Drive buy is completedMorning guys, Recently we've suggested that BTC stands at the eve of strong action, but for upside breakout it needs external push as inner power exhaust. With recent spike up BTC has completed our 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. On a BTC it is always difficult to make long-term forecasts as this market is very thin and could be easily manipulated by holders of big wallets. Now odds suggest reasonable pullback. At least theoretically 3-Drive minimum target is the bottom between 2nd and 3rd drives. Thus, bulls should wait for reasonable pullback. Bears could try to sell, using this 3-Drive. Now we need to keep an eye on retracement how strong and deep it will be. This should let us to undertsand what to expect
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5500 keeps both ways openMorning guys, Until market stands below 5500 top, it keeps door open for both ways. Yes, recent rally looks impressive, and this was the first positivea action for long, long term. But, what technical picture tells us? On weekly/daily we still have bearish tendency and rally was an AB=CD retracement to major 5/8 Fib resistance, which actually gives us '222" Sell pattern. On intraday charts, after drop from the top, the whole upside action still stands inside the bearish swing and keeps chances on other bearish patterns as well. Upside action shows exhausting, which makes us suggest appearing of "222"Sell around 5416 area. This is 1.618 AB=CD target which agrees with deep 88% Fib resistance. Yes we have alternative scenario of 3-DRive pattern, but market is losing the pace. With this speed 3-Drive will be completed somewhere in June, this is too long for this pattern. And these thoughts lead us to conclusion. First is, if you're bearish, it will be the chance to sell with '222" Sell around 5416 area. Use breakeven stop as soon as possible. But this is just tactical conclusion. What is really interesting - it seems that BTC market should get some external push in nearest time. 3-Drive could be completed, only if BTC shows fast acceleration. But now it could happen only by some external driving factor. Technically recent upside action looks weak and slow. Otherwise we should be ready for collapse...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
3-Drive upside pattern is possibleMorning guys, yesterday we've talked about "222" Buy on 4H chart, as BTC stands at 5/8 Fib resistance and formed "222" Sell pattern. Now there are new moments exist here that mostly have relation to the price behavior around resistance. Take a look at now significant action has started, market is coiling around and price action mostly reminds a sideways action. Yes, minor 3-Drive "Sell" has been formed, but it is already completed. Sideways action around major resistance hints on some hidden strength. Now major breakout at any side has happened yet, but now we have to take in consideration possible upside action as well. As a result we could get 4H 3-Drive "sell" pattern with potential target around 5600 instead of "222" Buy. At the same time, as no direction has been chosen yet, it would be better to wait a bit and see. Upside continuation and breakout of 3-Drive top here will tell that BTC moves higher, while downside breakout turns us back to idea of 4H "222" Buy pattern. Alternitavely, it is possible to use stop entry orders on breakout of extreme points...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
DAX could reach 14500 levelMorning guys, Here we come again with extraodinary forecast, as usual. We update our long-term view on DAX 30 Index. Our last year suggestion was a large H&S pattern. But it had one weak moment - Dow Jones has not completed all time extension target, while all other major indexes, such as DAX, NASDAQ already have done it. We've made a forecast on DJIA few months ago that it should reach new highs before collapse. Now we see that DAX price behavior also has changed. Although our minor H&S pattern has worked perfet and DAX has completed it 1.618 ultimate target around 10300 lows, but price has not dropped more and not reached the neckline of large pattern, but turned up instead. This is irrational action for any H&S pattern and it makes us deny it. Another reason, DAX has climbed above the neckline of first, minor H&S, which is also not normal for bearish market. Combining DAX price action and DJIA forecast, it seems that we could get huge 3-Drive "Sell" with 14500 potential reversal point...
INDEX:DEU40Long
by Sive-Morten
2
H&S is possible on 1HMorning guys, BTC stands well with our trading plan, as response on strong daily resistsance starts to form and downside action finally has started. Shortly speaking, we expect at least 3/8 retracement somewhere to 4500-4600$ area and it could happen that market is forming 1.27 H&S pattern, which has the target right around major support. There are some issues around this pattern exist that we've discussed in daily video on our FPA site. Also we still have suspicouns concerning recent rally as it has no real positive background and now a lot of rumors that was a kind of Ddos action on BTC price but not real splash of demand... we'll see.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Moderate 30% retracement is still on the tableMorning guys, BTC is coiling around the top, and we still think that for any long position taking, it would be better to get two things on the back - strong support area and bullish pattern. Thus, on 4H chart we could wait for pullback to 4430-4580 area and it would be nice if we will get "222" Buy pattern. Meantime, market is forming wedge pattern, Wash & rinse of the top already has happened and price barely touches the upper border of the wedge. This is signs of weakness. Once rally has happened we've announced our suspicions concerning its durability, because as it was information in the net that it could be a kind of Ddos action among major BTC holders to shift price higher. As soon as attack was fininshed - market turnover has dropped miserably. BTC market has very low liquidity and it is easy to manipulate prices. This is the reason why we do not hurry to bet on upside continuation as we need to see clear signs of real money joining the rally. Thus we still think that chances on retracement down, at least 3/8 are high enough.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Retracement is still on the table as Double Top is possibleMorning guys, The whole last week we were watching for price action around major daily resistance that actually includes major 1.618 AB-CD daily target, major 5/8 Fib resistance and daily Overbought. Normally, such combination suggests at least some moderate pullback, say 3/8. It creates two different setups for bears and bulls. Those who wants to buy should wait - it is not good idea to jump in at daily resistance and overbought. Thus, wait for either some pullback, at least 3/8 or upside breakout. If BTC breaks strong daily resistance without response this shows some hidden strength and suggests upside continuation. Bears should be focused only on tactical, short-term trade in current circumstances. To take a position we need clear bearish pattern that we do not have yet. Last week we watched for H&S, but it was not formed as BTC has failed to form right arm of this pattern. But, while market stands below the top - it keeps chances on retracement. Another pattern that could be formed is Double Top. Right now we see puny wash & rinse of first top - this is very typical action for D. Top pattern. And this is the moment to make a decision on short entry against recent top, if you have bearish view on the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Reaction on daily resistance with 4400-4500$ bounceMorning guys, As BTC has hit strong resistance on daily chart and Overbought level, we're watching for normal technical reaction and expect at least 3/8 retracement to strong 4H 4400-4500 support area. On 1H chart the pattern that could become a background of this reaction is H&S. It is not completed totally yet and still stands underway, but, overall shape is recognizable already. Thus, bears could try to use this pattern for fast trade down, while bulls should wait when retracement will be over. 4400-4500 is the first level that is suitable for this purpose. Besides, we could get large "222" Buy there...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4340-4440 pullback?Greetings, So, yesterday we've mentioned strong daily resistance area that includes AB-CD target, Fib level and daily Overbought. Normally, market should react and show at least 3/8 pullback. It means that current area is not good point for taking long position immediately and bulls should wait a bit. Taking short position in current circumstances is a real challenge and could be expensive journey. Still, if you decide - wait for clear pattern on intraday chart and place stop somewhere above daily Fib resistance and overbought level. Right now we see only "222" Sell on 30-min chart. As a target you could use our 4340-4440 strong intraday support area. But, most interesting thing is a durability of this rally. Whether this is new bulltrend or occasional action that we saw previously many times. Time should answer on this question within 1-2 weeks probably.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Major Daily target is hit - at least 30% pullback should follow.Morning guys, So our yesterday suspiciouns and worries about preparing of upside breakout was not in vain. It has happened. Despite solid rally, it is not sufficient yet to change situation on weekly chart. Here, on daily our butterfly has been erased and BTC has completed H&S 1.618 AB-CD extension target. But, now price stands at major 5/8 resistsance, daily Oversold level and major AB-CD target, forming solid resistance cluster. Besides, we have "222" Sell pattern here, which suggests pullback at least to 30% Fib support. Finally, when such spikes happens, this is always a question of its durability. Last time, rally was short term and totally erased soon after few weeks of sideways action. Let's see what will happen this time. That's being said, we're watching for moderate pullback within few sessions, at least to 3/8 Fib support area around 4040$
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4200 challenge?Morning guys, Although market has completed our major target for the week and 4085 extension target has been hit - we haven't got downside retracement on Friday that we've counted on. This moment, but not only this one, makes us think that BTC indeed could take the attempt of 4200 daily tops breakout. We see behavior that is not typical for normal bearish market. Daily Sell-off was very strong, forming bearish reversal session. Upside action on BTC was rather deep with breaking all Fib levels on a way up. But what is more important is market reaction on double target - 1.618 AB-CD and AB=CD at 4085$. In fact, we have "222" Sell pattern here. Now we do not see any bearish reaction at all. Market just coiling around and we treat it as building an energy before attempt of upside breakout. Taking all this stuff in consideration, despite that market hits major target and forms "222" Sell - it would be better to not go short until we get clear bearish signs and clear reversal patterns on intraday charts. For taking part in upside breakout, well there are a lot of ways to do it. One of them is to use stop "buy" entry order slightly above the daily top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3950 is clue to short-term directionMorning guys, our H&S setup has done well and market has hit minimal AB=CD H&S target. Now, price stands at strong 4H support area and we expect upside bounce today. 3950 should become a signal area. Since this is neckline of H&S pattern - BTC could show upside retracement, forming AB-CD and "222" Sell pattern. But, to keep bearish sentiment valid it should not break above it. So this simultaneously entry point for bears and signal area for bulls. If, somehow BTC shows upside breakout of 3950 and keep going higher - it means that H&S is done and we are on the road to 4085$ target, which is still valid. If no surprises happen and BTC turns south around 3950 - watch for XOP target around 3770$
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC updateMorning guys, Market shows contraction type of action and previous week was standing in very tight range. Last week we've discussed 1H chart H&S pattern. Since we have 1.27 type of H&S we expect higher top of right arm. At first glance, H&S almost stands in place (just take a look at our Friday's post), but the price action of right arm shows too slow and too gradual action that is not typical for H&S. It makes us think that we still have chances to see BTC around 4000 area in a shape of upside AB-CD retracement. Thus, bears have to look at two levels - 3915 is neckline. Once it will be broken it means that downside action has started, and ~4000$ - AB-CD target and potential top of right arm of H&S pattern. What to do if 4000 level will be broken up? Recall 4H large AB=CD with 4085 target. In this case we should get upside butterfly and reversal down happens by not intraday but daily pattern around 4100 area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tricky H&S patternMorning guys, BTC was not able to reach our 4085 target (at least right now) and dropped. Recent plunge creates potentially tricky situation when BTC leaves behind uncompleted targets. This is additional risk factors for bears as market could return and hit targets before real downside reversal. Thus our task is to eliminate or minimize the impact of this risk. On 4H chart (check previous update, guys), BTC was not able to complete butterfly erase it. Now we have H&S pattern on 1H. First step that we're watching for is deep upside retracement. We probably will get "222" sell around 4000-4030 area and it also will be top of the right arm. Here is just two ways for taking short position. Either do it right at the top of the arm with stops above 4090 (because targets still could be hit). If it is too much - wait when H&S will start to work and BTC starts dropping below neckline. It is not as attractive but safer.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Still watching for 4085$Morning guys, today we show the same scenario but at different scale - on daily chart. In recent 3-4 sessions market was standing quiet and doesn't show any action that could harm our trading setup. So, we're still watching for completion our AB-CD target on 4H chart around 4085$ As you can see here, on daily chart - this should give us '222" Sell pattern and downside continuation. Right now price action looks like flag or pennant consolidation which supports idea of upside continuation and completion of our AB-CD pattern. Bearish tendency will be broken only if market will climb above recent tops and break even theoretical chances on butterfly pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten