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Forexpeacearmy

4040 is first minor targetMorning guys, welcome back, we hope that you had a good Xmas and New Year's day time. Mostly BTC supports our scenario with daily H&S pattern and now we turn to final stage - action to the target. Two entry opportunities have worked well. First was on the bottom of the right arm, second - on minor retracement, based on our hourly H&S pattern. Now, as we have minor H&S on hourly chart as well, we will follow to its targets first, and turn to daily H&S second. First target is AB=CD based on the head and right arm. It stands at 4040 area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Wait for right arm and up...Morning guys, So, upstep is done - market shows upside bounce from our anticipated 3500 level, which is suggested by daily H&S shape. Now BTC has only one legal road - up. Illegal reversal will mean H&S failure which suggests drop below the 3000$ Head level. Now time has come for our "conservative" tactics, if you were scared a bit to buy right at the daily right arm bottom. Here, on 1H chart, market has formed upside reversal swing after butterfly has been formed. It means that deep retracement should follow and, here, we also could get minor reverse H&S pattern. I draw it as a combination of butterfly and "222" here. 5/8 Fib support stands around 3750$ level. This is potential entry area for those who would like to buy (against 3550$ lows). Potential target, as we've mentioned before daily AB=CD, based on H&S. Reverse down and breaking of 3550 lows will be early sign of collapse and drop below 3000$. Detailed video with all time frames analysis on our website (link at signature below), no advertisement or cross-links, as usual. pure analysis. Good luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTC - either up to 4500 or drop below 3000Morning guys, So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area. Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and treat this H&S only as a retracement. Sooner or later but due our expectations final leg down should happen. That's why possible H&S failure here is not minor question for us. The one thing that I do not like with this pattern is strong sell-off on right shoulder. Actually on right shoulder bulls should control the market. But, instead of gradual AB-CD that we've discussed previously, we''ve got sharp drop. This is not good. So, we offer to buy insurance - wait for upside action up from major 5/8 Fib support, where market stands right now, and appearing, say, reverse H&S on 1H chart. Butterfly we already have. This is instead of buying right now... But, this is just IMO.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Up to ~ 4000 and down to 3500$Morning guys, Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week. Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback should be, approximately 5/8 to ~4000$ and next we expect CD leg down to ~3500$. That should be the moment where we need to make decision on long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Primary pattern to watch for is H&SMorning guys, yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this. We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm. But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where downside reversal will happen and where neckline of H&S will be. All that we do care about - where this downside retracement will over. Because this is our entry point. And the fact that yesterday downside action is not started - doesn't harm our position, since we do not trade BTC short right now. It just means that we're still waiting...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3450 retracement stands on the tableMorning guys, BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep. As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major context stands up - we do not call you to trade it short right now, but this is not forbidden of course. H&S target suggests drop to major 5/8 Fib support on hourly chart and this is our level where we think about long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for next sky around 3700Morning guys, Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern. It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in the shape of "222" Buy which could be used for long entry again. Thus, if you've missed entry yesterday - don't upset with this. Ordinary H&S target should be around 3700$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3320$ retracement is possibleMorning, guys, On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart. Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320 area. Although we still keep bearish sentiment and mostly treat this pullback as the chance to step in on bearish side again - we should get '222" Sell by this retracement. Long position is not forbidden until "C" point is valid. Otherwise, it will be H&S failure and market will continue downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2900$ on the table?Morning guys, Market shows very weak reaction on any bullish patterns that was forming on intraday charts. Current situation is not an exception. This makes us to wait for 1.618 butterfly target on daily chart around 2900$. Reaction on 1.27 target was just minor harmonic swing. Once trend stands bullish by MACD but price shows flat action - this makes us think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure, which should lead to another leg down sometime soon. Analysis of intraday charts stand in the daily video on our website. Link stands in sign.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4050 minimum target of 3-Drive "Buy" patternGreeting everybody, We're still watching for extention of upside retracement and patterns that could trigger it. Since taking of bearish position is postponed on indefinite time, because we need to wait either when upside retracement will be over or for clear signs of BTC failure and downside action. Now we do not have anything of this kind. For short-term bullish trading, BTC has formed 3-Drive "Buy" pattern on 4H chart. It suggests action above 4050$, but also could become the starting point of greater action. If you have bullish view, you could think about it. Pattern will be valid until market holds the lows. For position taking minor 3/8 retracement could be used on 1H chart, or some bullish continuation pattern, say "222" Buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4100 or 3450$ ?Morning guys, Now we're investigating upside retracement on daily chart, which could happen by one of the three patterns - "222' Buy", Double Bottom or butterfly "Buy". As '222" Buy already stands in place - we're watching of market reaction on it. Yesterday we've talked that upside action could start by H&S pattern, and indeed, market hit the neckline and now is forming right arm. But, now it seems that arm is overextended to the downside and breaks the harmony of the pattern. This makes it weaker. Anyway, if H&S will hold, we could get action to 4100, as AB-CD target of this pattern. Conversely, dropping below recent lows and moving back to the head means that daily '222" triggereed only minor reaction, and next pattern stands on horizion, which is Double bottom. It means that BTC will drop back to daily lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4000-4100 is first upside target of retracementGreeting everybody, We continue to work with short-term retracement action on BTC. As our downside target has been perfectly hit yesterday - 4H AB-CD pattern and butterfly "Buy' on 1H, we've got perfect "222" Buy, which could lead to fargoing consequences. First is, at least 30% upside action, but potentially we could get DRPO "Buy" pattern on daily chart and 50% upside action of the whole thrust down... Meantime, on hourly chart price stands at Agreement support of major 5/8 Fib level and AB=CD pattern. Market shows good uspide reaction here, thus, reverse H&S pattern could be formed. Nearest upside target by this pattern is 4000-4100, but as we've said - this could become just a beginning of longer-term upside retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
3717 is short term destinatinationMorning guys, Our K-resistance area of 4250-4300$ that we've mentioned last week is working well. Market indeed has failed to break it on marche. Taking in consideration strong bearish momentum that still stands on the market, our most conservative expectation is deep retracement to 3717 area and completion of AB=CD pattern, which should give us daily '222" Buy. Ultimate result of the same action could be butterfly with new lows. Thus, ones our H&S pattern has done well on Friday, we've talked about it in our video on website, today we're watching for butterfly. First target is 3800 - 1.27 butterfly extension and major 5/8 support, next target is 3717 - completion of larger AB-CD pattern and 1.681 butterfly target. Watch our video on website (see sign links at the bottom of the page) for more details. Thank you for watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Retracement at least to 3900$Morning guys, yesterday we've talked about possible sell trade around 4300$ K-resistance area, which also was an Agreement with our AB-CD pattern. As a result we've got "222" Sell, which suggests at least pullback to 3900$ area. Although drop could be stronger, since bearish momentum still stands here and BTC now shows first moderate upside retracement after collapse. Our major focus on daily chart, where we're watching for DiNapoli direction patterns - either B&B "Sell" or DRPO "Buy". Which one will be formed depends on price action within 1-2 sessions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3000?Morning guys, Miracle has not happened, (to be honest we don't count on it too much) as market has failed to complete our AB-CD pattern and dropped after it has failed to break trendline on hourly chart. Now, again, theoretical chances exist with action to 4200$ by AB=CD retracement, as market has two bullish grabbers on 4H chart. But my suggestion is - appearing of butterfly with 3000$ target looks more probable. In fact, if market has failed to break trend line on good uspide pace that was yesterday, today, chances to do it look phantom. BTC has negative fundamental background and from technical point of view, it has only one support by far - daily oversold level, which stands now around 3000. Thus, although AB-CD upside action theoretically could happen, we do not recommend to go long and use any rally as chance for short entry. In fact we have pennant pattern forming on daily chart...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC uspide retracement scenarioHey everybody, Here we introduce possible scenario of upside pullback on BTC. This is not the call to buy it, this is just a suggestion the shape of retracement. Depending on your view, you could treat this either as setup for scalp buy trade or rally to sell into. In general we have long-term bearish view, we've talked about it many times in our previous reports. Today we also have prepared special report on BTC that explains background of going things and they are not tehcnicals of course - hard fork of BTC cash, postponing ICE futures introduction, breakeven level of ETH mining - just to name some. Anyway, if retracement up will happen - that's the scenario to watch. Now BTC shows AB-CD retracement up and AB=CD target already has been hit. NExt destination point is XOP - 1.618 extension around 4360$ area. Then we need to keep an eye on pullback, as reverse H&S could be formed. The right arm lows will be interesting for those who intends to go long. If you have bearish view - just wait when H&S action will be over on larger time frame. In general market keeps our "creeping with oversold" price action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside relief at least to 5000 area is possibleMorning everybody, BTC has hit long term targets around 4000-4200 area - daily 1.618 and weekly 1.27 butterflies. Since they are accompanied by daily oversold as well - this good background at least for technical pullback. On 4H chart we also have steep AB=CD pattern. At first glance, pullback is possible at least to 5000 $ area which is Fib K-resistance area, including 3/8 level of major stage of collapse. Thus, if you would like to go short - better to wait for pullback. Scalp long position theoretically is possible, but we do not have good bullish patterns yet on hourly chart. Once it will be formed we could a) better estimate upside target, b) get more confidence with scalp buy. Currently we see nothing of this kind yet
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten