Get started

Forexpeacearmy

Some Psychological issues on BTCMorning guys, As you know we keep long-term bearish view on bitcoin market. Previously we've discussed a lot of patterns that chould be formed here - daily butterfly with 5800 target and 4H one with 6100 just to name some. Today we would like to talk on psychological backround of BTC situation. It has started on Bitfinex collapse and explosive demand for crypto. Many traders said "at last", we're at the the eve of upside reversal. But close look at what has happened after that makes us think that sentiment is mostly bearish here. This huge rally has not become a starting point of upside continuation. Market stands inside its range for 2 months but never moves in upper half of the range. This week on downside action major trendline support has been broken and price is coming to the range's lows for second time. We suggest that this time these lows will be broken. Taking in consideration exceptional role of huge candles - when they are broken, market follows in the direction of breakout, usually on a distance equals to the range. It means that this should lead us somewhere to 5600 $ area, which stands close to our daily target.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
EUR will drop to 1.12 area next weekMorning guys, At first glance overall momentum and sentiment looks bullish for EUR, but we see alternative factors from US 10 year yield jump, short-term sentiment analysis and dollar index price behavior. Thus, instead of upside bounce from 1.1360 and forming reverse H&S pattern, we mostly expect to see big 1.618 3-Drive "Buy" and drop to 1.12-1.1230 area next week. Maybe Nov 8th Fed meeting will become major driving factor of this process.
Short
by Sive-Morten
Last chance for bullsMorning guys, Yesterday we've said that BTC has to hold above major K-support area to keep bullish sentiment. Despite dollar-supportive Fed decision yesterday, BTC was able to stay above major K-support and formed "222" Buy pattern. Currently I'm not sure on real upside continuation, as upside channel has been broken, but minor pullback as respect of this area is possible, somewhere to 6450 area. At the same time, we do not like sighs of acceleration in downside action in recent 2 session. As our long-term view is bearish on BTC and we treat this action just as a retracement, adding mostly dollar supportive sentiment on the traditional markets - we suggest with high degree that downside action on next week will continue. Right now market stands at final bullish outpost. So, if you still would like to go long - that's the last area and bullish invalidation point. Breaking of this support will turn technical picture bearish. We still suggest move stop to breakeven asap on any long position here as foundation for BTC appreciation looks fragile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTCMorning guys, Market has reached our predefined retracement target. In fact, we have side by side two K-support areas and for BTC it is crucial to hold above 6400$ to keep bullish sentiment. Otherwise, market will form bearish reversal swing, which could mean deeper retracement, at least or, even downside reversal. So, market right now stands at the point which gives perfect risk/reward ratio, because this is also invalidation point for short-term bullish setup. Taking position here doesn't promise you success, but it does promise minimum loss in case on short-term trend breaking. Today's Fed results will be major driving factor, I suppose.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
6300 support area is the key to performanceMorning guys, Although longer-term picture still stands bearish, in shorter-term trend has turned bullish and bitcoin has returned in flat consolidation that has been broken last week. This makes possible to reach 6500 first - upper border of consolidation and later 6600 - AB-CD 0.618 target on daily chart. But, to complete this, we need to keep an eye on hourly chart and 6300 strong support and channel border in particular. To keep bullish sentiment market has to hold above this area and turn up. Downside breakout will erase short-term bullish scenario. So, 6300-6400 area is very good for long entry as it gives best risk/reward ratio, because this area is also an invalidation point.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Pullback todayMorning guys, Market almost has hit our minor 6400 COP target that we've mentinoed today on our forum. Still, it is not enough to break bearish context yet. Despite recent upside action, market was not able to return in rectangle consolidation yet, and in fact, stands in range of the collapse that has happened on Monday. Since we have "222" Sell pattern here, on 1H chart, and COP target has been hit - at least 3/8 pullback should follow. Depending on retracement depth, we will see, should we expect any other upside action in nearest future. Another warning moment is possible bearish grabber that could be formed today on daily chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
6030 drop is a first step to 5100$ targetMorning guys, We keep our long-term bearish view on BTC with 5100 extended target. Meantime, we wide daily AB=CD 6034$ target and it seems that it will be first destination point. Yesterday we've discussed scenarios of short entry and thought that pullback to 5/8 resistance might be good way to sell the rally, but now, on houry chart we have pennant/triangle consolidation with signs of bearish dynamic pressure, which suggests drop right from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5100$ target for BTCMorning everybody, finally we've got an action on BTC market, which confirms our bearish view. We think that BTC now stands under scrutiny revaluation by investors, and not in positive direction. Fundamentally we do not see any long-term supportive factor for BTC. Technically, weekly chart shows clear signs of bearish dynamic pressure. While MACD trend stands bullish, price is forming lower tops. Within few weeks we think that BTC will hit 5100 target of weekly butterfly. Today upside retracement to 6330$ 5/8 Fib resistance is possible, which we think should be good area for short entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
6520 seems good level to go shortMorning guys, Finally some activity lets us hope on appearing of patterns. We keep our bearish view on bitcoin and still suggest short entry at any attractive level and bearish pattern on the back. Now our attention is on 4H chart. Right now BTC has completed "222" Sell. But, as CD leg of inner AB-CD pattern is a bit faster than AB, we keep hope that price could move slightly higher and form Butterfly "Sell". It is interesting that potential butterfly reversal point coincides with 3/8 Fib resistance around 6520$ area
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Dropping our time frame to find at least somethingMorning guys, BTC shows so weak volatility that it couldn't even complete the minimal upside targets. Still now on 1H chart it is a clear shape of pennant/triangle pattern which potentially is continuation one, i.e. bearish in our case. We still keep our bearish view on BTC and do not see any factors that could support demand for BTC right now. Thus, any bearish continuation pattern inside the triangle could be used for short position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
$6500-6525 area should be good for short entryGreetings everybody, Market shows very lazy price action, so it is very difficult to find some setup there. We think that BTC within few weeks will be driven by doubts of investors. On a background of Tether, Bitfinex and Noble Bank events, lack of regulation and bit white spots in blockchain technology - investors, as new as experienced ones will try to re-assess BTC. It brings no interest, it doesn't protect from crisis events. It is an object of hackers attacks and no regulation opens the gate for dirty affairs of different kind. Is it really as attractive as it was seemed before? Technically recent action definitely doesn't corresponds to idea of upside trend. After pullback BTC behaves too flat for bullish reversal. This makes us keep our bearish view intact. Speaking on short-term perspectives, we could get "'222" Sell pattern on Mon-Tue around major 3/8 resistance, which could become not bad area for short position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC direction will be estimated after breakoutMorning, guys It is difficult to comment spaghetti chart of BTC that we have right now, but we'll try. Speaking on larger perspective, since the reason for rally was not fundamentals or economy value of BTC but force-major technical situation, we suggest that chances on drop are better than on upside reversal. Here again an issue of absence of regulation appears and investors again will think about risks of BTC as financial asset. Technically, final direction, whatever it will be, will be estimated on a breakout of huge rectangle that we have, range of the Monday's rally. target will be the height of this range (~600$) counted in direction of breakout. Meantime, while BTC is coiling inside, all that we could do is try to get some small patterns. One of them is "222" Sell that could appear around 3/8 Fib resistance level of ~6520. This will be chance to make scalp shorts. In general we suspect that sequence of such events as Mt. Gox crush, now is Bitfinex and Tether issue and no regulation of BTC market will significantly reduce attractiveness of cryptos for potential investors. Besides, BTC gives no % return on investments, this is also valuable issue on an upside rate cycle in US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC is preparing for downside breakoutMorning guys, Yesterday we've said that BTC has no fundamental or technical background for growth and force-major situations that we've got yesterday never lasts too long. Conclusion of our view on Monday was - this spike is good chance to go short at better price level. Price action today doesn't provide us clear patterns that nuances point that BTC looks heavy. Take a look - on 30 min chart we have bearish engulfing pattern of huge size. During pullback from the top BTC has broken major 5/8 support area and was not able to return back, now any minor upside attempts are pressed by sellers. As a result we have pennant pattern in progress, which stands more in favor of downside continuation. As a bottom line - we keep our bearish view. For more detailed discussion - visit our forum by signature link, there we put daily videos on BTC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5
BTC-short on any upside pullbackMorning guys, BTC has shown outstanding rally today, that was impossible to foresee as technically as fundamentally. This is force-major issue - Bitfinex has a problems with Noble bank, where major assets stand and Tether has a problems with liquidity then, to keep BTC-USD peg ratio. This has triggered explosive demand for exchange assets that investors hold in Tether and Bitfinex for crypto currencies. It means that this reaction will be short term, because it doesn't have any fundamental reasons, and when the wave of exchanges will exhaust, BTC should return to previous levels. We think that this is good opportunity to go short. On daily chart we have perfect AB=CD "222" Sell" at 5/8 Fib resistance and daily overbought area. Now we need to keep an eye on hourly chart and watch for AB-CD upside retracement and smaller "222" Sell, which should give us acceptable area for position taking.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5900$ is next BTC targetMorning guys, It seems that our bet on collapse yesterday was correct - as soon as market has reached 3/8 Fib level drop has happened. Now market has completed some intraday targets. It means that within few hours minor pullback is possible, but we keep our bearish sentiment and look for 5900$ target on BTC. So, 3/8 retracement again, as yesterday is an area to sell again... Also - take a look at our previous ideas, dedicated to stock markets and our charts of DAX and NASDAQ... and don't tell that we didn't warn you. This is beginning of the catastrophy, guys...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Minor upside bounce todayGreetings, It seems our bet on collapse yesterday was correct and BTC indeed has reached lower border of the triangle. This action has completed AB=CD leg and gives us 1H "222" Buy pattern. Still, we are not exciting on it too much. Recent collapse was fast and we treat this "222" just as background for minor pullback. Most probable is just 3/8 retracement to ~6600$ area, but not higher than 5/8 level @ 6650$ After that we expect that downside action will continue and treat today's bounce as a chance to go short. Our longer-term view stands intact and it's bearish.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
6500$ is a vital level for short-term perspectiveMorning guys, BTC shows very narrow price action, activity has dropped significantly, so we do not need even any update on daily and 4H analysis. Today is NFP release and preliminary balance stands not in favor of BTC as market mostly expects to get good numbers. Anyway, BTC stands tight and is forming something like reverse H&S on 1H chart. Whatever it will be - 6500$ area has been tested multiple times and supports BTC from collapse. This level will be crucial today either. Drop below it could trigger chain of breakouts of lower stand levels and trigger action to our downside targets that we've mentioned before on 4H chart. Standing above 6500$ and breaking 4H trianlge up could turn short-term sentiment to bullish
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten