Get started

Forexpeacearmy

74.75K seems the nearest oneMorning folks, So, as we've said, if BTC breaks 69K it should go higher. That we see now. Nearest upside target is based on the same pattern - reverse H&S that we're trading for a couple of weeks already. It stands at 74.75K But at the same time, I would like to show you this one - reverse H&S on top. If we see that BTC starts falling fast, it could be not the signal of reversal but the forming of the right arm. Just be prepared to this scenario if BTC starts showing fast downside action. For primary scenario (direct upward action to 74.75) we consider two support levels, where long entry might be interesting - 68K and 66.10K We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Two targets that could change everythingMorning folks, So, our H&S starts perfect. Tactically we've missed a bit, expecting upside turn around 59.5K area, but data releases and putting down of ETH ETH perspectives have supported earlier upside reversal. Also Hong Kong is very active with opening domestic ETF's that boost BTC demand among Chinese population. Now our H&S pattern has two target. Nearest and the most important one is around 69.15K. It is vital because it directly relates to monthly bearish engulfing pattern. While next upside target with our H&S will be 74.74K. If 67-69K will be broken, then monthly bearish pattern will be erased and it will be quite bullish. That's being said, let's keep watching for 69.15K first and then for reaction around it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
We need to check 59-59.5K areaMorning folks, So, everything is going with the plan by far. Market has reached ~60K area where potential right arm of our 4H reverse H&S pattern should stay. But here is a minor tricky thing. Overall performance doesn't look bullish by far. On 1H chart it even looks bearish. We have downside acceleration and uncompleted XOP target that makes an Agreement with 59.5K Fib support level. Let's treat it as the support of last resort for the short-term trading setup. So, keep it short, there are to options. If you scare to miss the trade, you could try to take long position right now but at the same time place stop below 59K or even better below 58.3K area. Conversely, conservative approach tells that it makes sense to wait when&if BTC hits 59K support area and then see what will happen. Personally I like the 2nd way more. Besides, we could totally escape possible collapse if it will happen and BTC will just break 59K support area down...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for reversal signsMorning everybody, So, the first step of our trading plan is done - market is around 61K, which is intraday strong support area. It is preferable if upside action starts from here, although downside continuation to next support and XOP target will not become a tragedy yet, but will be looking worse with lower chances on success. Now we need to watch for small bullish patterns around this area. Once and If we get it - we could consider long entry. Our nearest upside target is around 67K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
First - watching for 62K, then 67KMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan, although the upside bounce that we've discussed is stronger than we thought. It means that bearish long-term patterns are still valid, say on monthly chart, we do not consider short entry right now. Vice versa, there are a few bullish patterns might be formed intraday. First is reverse H&S with 67K neckline, second is, the same on 1H chart. Thus, if we get lucky and the pullback to ~ 62K area prior BTC hits 67K , we could consider long entry. Otherwise, wait when BTC hits 67K neckline and wait when the right arm will be formed, as usual.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
50.2-52K mid term targetMorning guys, So it seems we've correctly reversed our position down from 62K area. Today we increase the scale a bit and take a look at daily chart. Indeed BTC has broken triangle down as we've suggested. But it is more important that it also has broken K-support level and only oversold stops the downside continuation. This makes us to consider next downside target as 50.5-52K where next strong support stands. But before that BTC could show tactical bounce up to 60.5 area because of oversold, and maybe re-test broken triangle line. I'll anyway mark this update as "bearish" although first we could get the upside bounce... Profit to everybody, All the best...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
H&S is failingToday guys, update is very short. This is the only picture that we need for now, although we cold find more bearish signs on higher time frames as well. Despite that BTC has tried to show couple of pullbacks up from our 62-62.5K area - reverse H&S has not been formed. Other words, market was not able to confirm bullish reversal and other bullish patterns that we have. It means only one thing - inability to do this and that we have bearish context instead. As nearest target we suggest re-testing of recent 59K lows. Potentially bearish consequences could be more heavy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
63K looks interesting for long entryMorning folks, As we've promised on Thu last week, the close of the week will be most important thing that could change everything. That has happened. AS BTC has closed 5K higher - we haven't got any bearish engulfing on monthly chart for now. But what is more important - we have bullish grabber on weekly, suggesting that price should challenge ATH again. Not necessary the breakout should follow, but re-test it at least. Thus, based on intraday performance, it might happen that now we're getting reverse H&S pattern, and an area around 63K where the right arm might be formed, seems interesting for long entry...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
64-65K pullback is possibleMorning folks, Although BTC situation is changing and not to the good (we've talked about last time), market now stands at strong support area. 59-60K is strong daily support and oversold level. While here, BTC has done "222" target, suggesting that at least 30% pullback, somewhere to 64-65K area is possible. But, in longer term, drop under 60K will push price down to 50K at least, because of bearish patterns on monthly and weekly charts. Right now we do not consider any shorts, as market is oversold. If you consider intraday bullish trade - wait for clear reversal patterns there that we do not have yet, before taking the position. But anyway they will be formed somewhere around.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Context is still bearishMorning folks, So, unfortunately for BTC - it is traded 24/7, so while other markets were closed, BTC has taken all the mess from geopolitics. With recent collapse, it is logical to ask - where all those people who were taking about "safe haven", "gold replacement" etc... Now due geopolitical turmoil in weekend, our short-term bullish context has been destroyed, so H&S was not able to reach the target and has been erased. As a result, for now short-term context has turned bearish and we think that it is not time yet for taking new long position. On daily chart MACD is bearish and we've got bearish reversal swing last week. From this standpoint, current upside action might be just a retracement. To start thinking about new long entry we have to get bullish pattern, say reverse big H&S on 4H chart or any other. Daily trend has to turn bullish again. Now we have nothing of it. Thus, the situation is not ready yet for new purchasing. On 1H chart we need to watch how upside action will develop. Picture could improve significantly if BTC will return back to the top, but now it is still a retracement with predefined upside targets.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Plan works perfect so far, showing 76-77.3K targetMorning everybody, So, our H&S pattern starts perfect. The only thing that we've missed is the neckline top - we thought it should be around 71K but it has been formed around 73K, which is even better in perspective. So, 2nd stage of the plan is done as well - right arm stands in place. We also have bullish grabbers on daily chart. All this stuff, based on H&S suggests action at least to ~75.8-76K area, while daily expansions point on 77.3K. Invalidation point of this scenario is 67.5K right arm's lows. If BTC drops below it, our view will turn bearish based on H&S "Failure" pattern. But for now we have no reasons yet to consider bearish setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten