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Forexpeacearmy

Great Pump, but what's next?Morning folks, Well, rally looks great, but absolutely unnatural and has no relation to normal market dynamic. It is pumped externally. This is not a surprise when 80% of spot market and all transactions and depository operation stand in one hands. Bubble? Yes, but it is not totally ripen yet, need some time to grow more... Our setup has worked perfect whatever you've done - either use Stop "buy" order for breakout or just bought near the lows of our consolidation. Our next upside targets are 70K, i.e. previous top and 80-85K. Now price is at overbought and it makes sense to wait for some relief. We will be watching DiNapoli patterns, based on the thrust - either DRPO "Sell" or B&B Buy. It seems that any analysis of BTC market very soon will become useless, because it is not controlled by market natural force any more, it is concentrated and market goes with the direction that BlackRock& Co will choose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Adv. on bearish sideMorning folks, It seems that market is tired a bit from previous ETF rally. Major drivers are worked out already, and market needs something new. Supposedly coming April halving and possible ETH ETF approvement in May are most probable ones. Right now price stands in tight consolidation, which is might be treated as a bullish sign. At the same time, this consolidation is forming at strong Monthly resistance area of 48.5-52.5K, so some downside reaction seems very probable. This could make any rally here very short term and unstable. And this keeps us aside from taking any long positions by far. On intraday charts it is few things that we could consider - bets on breakout of the range might be done by using Stop entry orders near the borders. If you still would like to buy, we have some shape of reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart, that theoretically you could try to use. But, this is very weak setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Contradictive patternsMorning folks, So, intraday H&S patterns that we've discussed last time has started very accurately as we've suggested. But, BTC was not able to break the top, forming minor W&R, grabbing stops around it. Thus, this H&S has failed. This is bearish moment. Dont' forget, that market stands at very unstable area of strong 52K monthly resistance. On daily chart we have two opposite patterns. First is DRPO "Sell", second is bullish grabber. With mentioned situation on intraday charts, it seems that DRPO has better chances. Anyway, if you're conservative - it would be better to stay aside. Still there some advanced ways of trading exist - we provide it in video on our website. It is too much typing to describe it here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
51.5K seems vital for short termMorning folks, So, BTC hits our Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 level and in nearest 1-2 months, it will be really decisive time for next direction on the market. Meantime, while BTC is still coiling around, let's take a look at lower time frames. Context remains bullish, so we do not consider any shorts by far. We suggest that 51.5K area will be vital in nearest term. If BTC holds above it - it could start forming reverse H&S on top with upward continuation and start moving to our next 55.5K target. If it fails, then we could get Double Top here and deeper downside pullback first. Thus, if you want to buy - think about 51.5K area, it could let you to place tight stop.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Waiting for the pullbackMorning folks, So, upside target of 52.2$ is reached. Now price stands at strong resistance area, including monthly major 5/8 level, Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 and upside weekly XOP target. Additionally we see that daily butterfly has been completed and market is overbought here. Although we do not exclude some wobbling in 52-55K area, so 1.618 butterfly target also could be reached, in nearest time we will be watching for natural downside reaction on strong support area. Now we do not consider any new longs positions. For intraday short positions it seems too early as well, as market has not started yet any reaction on this level
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical pause is necessaryMorning folks, So, 47.2K target is also completed. The next one is 50.50-52K, which is a big monthly cluster, including upside weekly XOP target, our XOP here, from reverse H&S target that we're trading now (it stands around 50.50K), Yearly Pivot Resistance 1. But for now it seems market needs some tactical pause. Now major 5/8 monthly Fib resistance is hit, and price is overbought on daily chart. Thus, appearing of small 1H H&S pattern could trigger tactical natural pullback before market will proceed to the next target
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
Up right now?Morning folks, So, today we take a look at daily chart finally. Last time we've discussed upside bounce that should become the right arm of H&S pattern on 1H chart. Indeed, upside bounce has happened, and it seems that it has become the arm of H&S, but there are few nuances... H&S on 1H chart stands too distorted and skewed to the upside. And we do not want to rely on it. Recent price performance also doesn't match to idea of bearish pattern. On daily chart we've got tweezer bottom and obvious pennant pattern under 3/8 resistance - two bullish signs. So, we do not exclude that upside action could continue. We keep our nearest target at the same 45K area. So, it seems that our reverse H&S pattern, that we're considering for last 2 weeks - might be in action already
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Some practical issuesMorning folks, This post should be considered as practical add-on to our major upside scenario. Now we consider reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart. Market has reshaped it a bit, so we haven't got desirable retracement yet (i.e. right arm is not formed yet). But, it could be soon. On 1H chart you could see potential downside H&S. BUt the problem is - the 4H arm should be (or could be) around 41.5K, while the target of 1H pattern suggests lower levels. At the same time, you could see that on 41.5K we have very strong support area - this is downside XOP (1.618 AB-CD target) and K-support area. That's why we consider this area as suitable for long entry. If even later market will form 1H HS& and keep going lower - at first touch we should get the bounce with high degree of probability. Because right arm here has to be formed as well. This makes attempt to go long here relatively safe and with ability to place very tight stop. Everything will be even better if BTC starts upward action right from here...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2
First is done. Here is the 2nd oneMorning folks, So, our 3-Drive and H&S pattern that we've discussed have completed. But, as we consider 45K level as major target for this trading setup - we expect continuation. Meantime, market hits 42.6K target and 3/8 Fib resistance on daily chart. It needs some tactical pullback. We suggest that 41-41.2K support is the most probable area. Then, if everything remains the same, upside action should continue with larger scale H&S pattern on 4H chart. But, the pullback is our first step. I mark setup as bearish, but only because of expected pullback. In general we have bullish view in short-term.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Target is 45K Morning folks, So, BTC was not strong enough to form H&S and just collapsed lower. Now finally we get patterns that could become a starting point for pullback. Here is 4H 3-Drive Buy pattern that has minor reverse H&S on the bottom. We suggest that it is possible to consider long position because now it is accompanied with reasonable risk. We see 45K level as target. Stop should be placed under the lows of 3-Drive, but if it is too much to you - stick with reverse H&S on 1H chart. In this case stop could placed somewhere around 39K. This should be relatively safe trade, because market is oversold on daily chart as well...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3
Detail of our major bearish patternMorning folks, This update is better to watch with the previous one, so you better understand what we're talking about... So, BTC has slipped a bit lower. This is not yet the action that we've discussed in our previous scenario. With this downside action now the H&S pattern on 4H chart starts looking even better. Today we consider upside background that is a part of our bigger bearish H&S on 4H chart. Since market is coiling around the neckline, chances stand high that the right shoulder of 44.25$ area could start forming. On 1H chart now we see completed downside butterfly. Price is forming "222" Buy as well, divergence has appeared as well. So, if our suggestion is correct, BTC could start forming the right arm of bigger pattern and start moving out from the neckline. Scalp traders could consider long position based on all this stuff. At least it cares very small potential risk, so, this is something to think about. We're mostly focused on big pattern. Potentially, we could get reverse H&S here, so, we should get another chance for scalp long position later. So, let's keep watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4
Other things to think aboutMorning folks, So, there some some jokes on the market already that BTC is becoming a stable coin... Indeed volatility has dropped drastically. But this could easily explained. If nobody is buying right now but all selling offers are swallowed by ETF whales - where coin should move? For instance, only BlackRock as bought in a single session this week more than 11K BTC. This is 10 times more than mined per day (900 BTC). Think about - how technical analysis could be applied for market right now? We continue to point that appearing of ETF is part of a big plan to take government control over the crypto markets. After some time free BTC float will be locked on ETF accounts. Exchanges that trade cash BTC (not ETF shares) will start loosing their business as turnover of cash BTC will drop miserably.... For now, we have H&S pattern that we've discussed previously and keep watching over it. If ETFs will keep supporting market from further drop, we should get upside bounce. Thus we consider 45-45.2K area for potential short position. For now we do not see many things to do. No good bullish signals either for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Look at the picMorning folks, So, indeed market has shown upside action to 49K after our last update, but later has broken, as we said, vital area for the bulls. For now ETF approvement doesn't fit to expectations much. In general, BTC has dropped for ~8%. But, at the same time - let's do not overreact on this. Yes, drop is significant, but it doesn't break major upside tendency. If we recall that 48.5K is major monthly 5/8 Fib resistance, then, current drop looks absolutely reasonable. Still, it was rather fast and by our view this increases chances on 2-leg downside retracement. In fact, it could take H&S shape. Since BTC is oversold on daily chart now, we expect upside bounce somewhere to 45K area first. Then we will be watching for bearish signs around either to confirm, or not confirm our suggestion of H&S and downside AB=CD action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2
43K is vital for bullsMorning folks, So, our 47.35K target has been hit on fake ETF approvement ;) Anyway, right now the major question is about stability of demand. Ambitions and emotions have got a release after ETF approvement and we have to be sure that bulls have sufficient power to keep moving higher. Because technically market has no problems for upside action - no overbought, no strong resistance levels above - bulls have to prove its ambitions and that bets were not just on ETF approval. To do this price has to stay in tight consolidation above ~42.80-43K daily support area. That's why for now, we consider only long entry inside this consolidation. If price breaks down 43K - bearish setup will become possible again. Long term upside target stands around 50-52K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
41K might be re-testedMorning folks, So, just we've completed with triumph our bullish setup on Monday - situation has changed drastically. Drivers of collapse is a separate topic for discussion. But it seems that market is very nervous now, not knowing in what direction to follow. This in turn tells, that ETF background as a driving power of the bulls is exhausted. Today we do not have any clear patterns. But taking in consideration few moments on daily chart, like failed upside breakout, Wash&Rinse all stops that have been placed around it and downside momentum, I would stay away from any long positions by far. Strong daily K-support was able to stop the tragedy. But momentum down is strong and we suggest that BTC still could re-test this level of ~41K area, before direction could change.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC keeps bullish contextHappy New Year to everybody! Hopefully you're feeling well after furious celebration ;) So, BTC keeps bullish context. Despite our recent idea with H&S has not been materialized, but BTC keeps vital condition for bullish context - it remains inside the triangle. Besides, now, we have another reverse H&S with absolutely the same potential entry area around 42-42.5K. Also bullish divergence is here... Currently bullish setup is not totally flawless, it has some tricky moments (we still have bearish grabber on daily) and yes, it depends on ETF news and approvement moment. At the same time, it doesn't mean that it is forbidden long entry. With some reasonable degree o care it is possible. But you pay for higher risk trying to get better entry point. Still, it is nothing bad with conservative approach either. Just to wait when upside continuation starts and try to enter on local pullback. This is also the strategy, why not...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2
Bearish risks still exist. 42.5K to watchMorning folks, So, downside action has happened, even deeper than we thought. Bearish grabber on daily chart still exists and suggests potential drop below 40K area. Still, this is just the pattern and could fail as any other one. To bet against it or not - this choice is up to you, we just share with our thoughts on the suggest. First is, downside action on daily is a bit heavy. It is clear that market resists and traders are buying on deeps. Second - BTC stands in triangle shape on 4H chart which is also potentially bullish. Finally, on 1H chart upside recovery is relatively fast and is taking the shape of reverse H&S pattern. So 42.50-42.60K is most comfortable area for position taking and you do not need to place too far stop. Because if BTC keeps upward action - it should start right from here. If not - it is not make sense to place far stop, because drop anyway will be deep. So, the only decision that you have to make is whether you're ready to go against daily grabber. If not - then sit on the hands. If this risk is acceptable to you, then you could try carefully to buy some coins around...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
40.25K lows seem vitalMorning folks, So, BTC has failed immediate upside breakout, although it really has tried... Now it seems that market is not too happy with recent Fed decision and has not joined to common euphoria. This is understandable, because number of BTC rivals now are increasing. Still, we suggest that bullish context is not totally destroyed yet and mostly depends on 40.25K lows. BTC now is forming big triangle on 4H chart and we have "222" Buy inside of it. If lows holds, BTC could start moving back to top again. Especially if Dollar becomes weaker. Bears should consider the opposite scenario - downside breakout of the same lows. Either to use stop "Sell" order around it or to wait for breakout...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten