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Forexpeacearmy

Bounce at least to 43KMorning folks, So, Thu plan as worked accurately - BTC has dropped precisely to 41K support area. Now it stands oversold on daily chart and near strong Fib support. Thus, we do not consider any shorts by far, but watching for scalp bullish positions instead, suggesting that upside bounce should be at least to 43K area (or even above the top if BTC wil form bullish daily grabber today). Right now it is not clear what particular pattern will be in foundation of upside bounce, but in similar cases, markets very often form "222" pattern. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for the pulbackMorning folks, let's keep up with our BTC analysis. So, our Thu suggestion was correct once again - BTC has jumped, breaking 4H wedge pattern in opposite direction. Now we suggest you to think on two objects. First is - is it really ETF topic that pushing BTC higher? So, the gold is raising also because of ETF? Second is, despite how strong the BTC pace is, we hit monthly Agreement resistance - major AB=CD together with 50% resistance level. Theoretically we have monthly "222" Sell. This is not best combination to consider new long entry. That's why within few weeks probably we will be watching for market reaction, as it could give us better entry levels.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside challenge seems possibleMorning folks, Just to not bother you with a lot of details, we suggest that BTC could try to challenge the top in nearest time. Despite that we're getting classic wedge shape, which should be bearish, we think that this is more the sign od bears' weakness and BTC could try to break the top. So, we do not consider by far any short positions. If you would like to buy BTC we suggest two ways - either follow the butterfly that we have on 1H chart, or use Stop "buy" order near the top to step in during breakout. Or combine the both...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
30.6K seems vital for short-termMorning folks, So, spike up has happened as we've discussed last week, and formally, daily bullish dynamic pressure is done. But hardly it makes bulls happy. W&R suggests stop hunting action, and in general the bearish short-term signal. Of course, it doesn't mean the major reversal etc., but it could trigger deeper downside reaction. Besides, on 4H chart our butterfly 1.27 target is done and now BTC already shows 3/8 retracement reaction. Here we suggest to keep an eye on 36.6K Agreement support area by two reasons. First is, it is a good support, that could be used for long entry and very tight stop placement. Second is, it is good validity indicator. Normal bullish market should not break it down. If it happens, it would be better to wait with any long entry, as chances for stronger downside action will increase significantly.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC keeps bullish contextMorning everybody, On daily chart we have two bullish signs. First is, market is forming bullish dynamic pressure - MACD trend is bearish but price action is not and forming higher lows. Second, as we've mentioned last time we have DRPO "Sell" failure, suggesting some way of upward action. Besides, we suggest that recent Binance punishment will support BTC price, especially at the eve of ETF approvement. People start withdraw coins out from exchanges to wallets, cutting free flow. Shortly speaking, we do not consider any shorts by far, suggesting that some way of upside action could happen. We keep the same 36K lows as invalidation area for this short-term scenario.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
37.75-38K is vital for long termMorning folks, BTC shows some tiredness from constant anticipation of ETF approvement. Any news do not trigger the same action as before. Still, market keeps bullish context and we do not consider any short positions yet. At the same time, we think that 37.75-38K area will be vital for BTC next step. Breaking of 38K opens road to 42K target, while failure to break it could trigger more extended downside action. That's why, if you plan to take long position - take this in consideration. Either tight stops when market comes to 38K or use stop buy order above 38K or just wait what will happen. 38K is yearly pivot resistance 1. This is the edge between existing bearish long-term trend and potential new bullish long-term trend. If price remains under YPR1, it means that upside action is just a retracement within long-term downside tendency.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
36K is a vital levelMorning folks, So, the pullback, based on 3-Drive is done. Long-term upside target is 42K. But, now market stands on tricky background. It has to keep going higher to new top to confirm bullish context. Until it stands around the top - maybe nominal, but chances exist for downside deeper retracement. That's why, if you plan to go long - don't place too far stops and watch for 36K support area. Normal bullish market has to stay above it. If it breaks it - something is wrong with bullish context and deeper retracement is coming.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Wait is a better choice for nowMorning folks, So, 3-Drive "Sell" has reached potential reversal point. What do we have now? DXY shows bullish weekly grabber, suggesting return back to 107.5 top, yields are raising. On daily BTC we have bearish grabbers, suggesting downside action, and here - 3-Drive "Sell". This combination tells, that if even you want to buy BTC - it would be better to wait a bit for some pullback. Besides, some analysts, including JP Morgan suggest that ETF approvement mostly is priced - in already. Anyway, overall combination of the factors suggest that it would be better to wait a bit and not buy BTC right now. Decision on scalp short selling is up to you...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 37-37.1K areaMorning folks, BTC is exploiting the same ETF topic, coming to the target of our 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. Major context remains bullish, so we do not consider taking any shorts. Although scalp traders, could start watching for bearish patterns on 30 min and below around 37K area, if reaction on 3-Drive starts. If 3-Drive works properly, we could get some deep for taking long position. Invalidation point of short term context stands around 33.30 lows of current consolidation. Market has to stay above them to keep bullish sentiment.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3-Drive instead of H&SMorning folks, So, BTC keeps positive mood. Environment also stands friendly - DXY collapsed and yields are going down. We sill consider market reaction on strong weekly resistance area of 36K, but change the pattern that could put the start for this reaction. Last week we've considered possible H&S. Recent price action now makes us to change our view in favor of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern, because H&S shape is clearly deteriorated. It means that 36-36.25K area potentially is the one where reaction could start
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for responseMorning folks, So, our intraday butterfly is done. Market now officially hits weekly strong resistance area around 36K and completed weekly XOP target. Next nearest level is 38.08K, which is Yearly Pivot Resistance 1. Since current place is not good for taking new longs, we suggest to see some response of strong area. Once of the possible ways is appearing of H&S pattern. This is just as an example. Whether to consider scalp shorts here is up to you, personally I do not intend to do this and mostly watch for the deep to consider long position:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Messing around the topMorning folks, Last time we've said that BTC is near strong weekly resistance of 35.5-36K area, and agreed to wait for response to consider next step. Now, week just has started, so, no response is formed yet. Still, we suggest that this is not good point for new long entry, at least from technical point of view, if you trade on daily/weekly time frames. On shorter time frames, price is forming pennant consolidation that suggests some upside action, so, BTC could mess around the top, spiking and touching weekly resistance area. Thus, it is not a good moment for scalp short as well, because we do not have any patterns in place. While scalp bullish traders could consider to do something with this triangle. For example, minor upside butterfly might be formed here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
29.15K or upside breakoutMorning folks, Not occasionally last time we've said - let's wait until the close of the week. And right on Friday situation has changed drastically. We haven't got any of potentially bearish patterns. Although we keep watching for weekly H&S pattern, but since there is no bearish signs yet on lower time frames - we do not consider taking any shorts by far. If you would like to buy, you could watch for ~29.15 K intraday support. Or use Stop "Buy" order near the top to step in when BTC will challenge the top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Wait for the weekly closeMorning folks, So, reaction on fake ETF news makes evident that this even is highly overpriced. Jump just for 3K discovers that this is purely speculative reaction and no real money stands behind. Mostly I would say that this news is already worked out and no multiple raising of BTC capitalization will happen. Today we suggest to wait for the weekly close. We could get H&S pattern on weekly chart. If we get the bearish grabber on top - it suggest drop under 25 K area. In this case next week we could consider scenarios for bearish entry.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
27.4K is vitalMorning folks, So, BTC is moving by some reasons, known only to itself. Market is very thin and it seems that investors just are searching for something to make some moves. The connection to performance as safe haven as risky assets is lost. Now it was reported that some short liquidation has happened and long-term hodlers have accumulated $3.2Mln positions in 48 hours in anticipation of coming approvement of ETF, no matter from whom - BlackRock, Grayscale etc... Anyway, technically, market starts upward action after downside AB-CD retracement. By logic it has to be new extension swing to daily XOP target around 30K. Second - as major pullback is done already, BTC has not to show any strong pullbacks. That's why we have to keep an eye on 27.4K support area on 1H chart. Market has to stay above it to keep this scenario valid. Otherwise, recent rally will be erased and downside action deepened.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Market is nervousWell-well... We see downside AB-CD action that we've planned last week, but it has not started. Market right now is very difficult to analyse, because it is rather thin, trading volumes have dropped dramatically. And any single transaction could trigger big moves. Besides, recent drop is difficult to explain from external factors - US yields are dropping, everything is raising, except BTC... While it was going higher like a crazy on some phantom expectations of ETF, despite environment was bearish. It behaves neither like safe haven nor like normal risky asset. It seems that fluctuations are becoming random and triggered occasionally just based on some news release. Technically, now the downside AB-CD finally has started. Since we have acceleration on CD leg, I would wait for 26K area before even thinking about long entry. Besides, 26K lows is invalidation point of short-term bullish context. If BTC breaks it down, we will go under 25K.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
27.2K seems vital for nowMorning folks, Technically we could say that situation remains bullish, as market is coiling right around daily resistance area and stubbornly doesn't want to show deeper retracement that we've discussed last time, so we haven't got better entry levels by far. From the fundamental background - we do not clearly understand reasons for euphoria. The sentiment is based on some blur expectations concerning ETF and other things. It is definitely not enough by our view to go against high interest rates, raising dollar and negative processes in the US economy, including global politics. Anyway, for now, since context remains bullish by far, if you want to buy - try to do it as close to 27K lows as possible, just to minimize the risk. If BTC breaks this level down - deeper downside action happens. While it stands in triangle - it keeps chances on upside continuation right from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
27 and 26.40 for accumulationMorning folks, So, based on some recent news, which we think definitely are overpriced, BTC was able to show upside bounce. Our view that the major events are still ahead and 30K level should show whether the major rally starts or not. But, first - BTC has to get there. Now we have short-term bullish context and consider position accumulation around 27 and 26.40K support area, suggesting that downside retracement might be a bit deeper. Vital level for this setup is 26K lows. It price drops below it - upward action is over and we're going to 25K. If everything will be OK, then BTC should try to test 30K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
25.8-25.9K targetMorning folks, Any rally are rejecting fast due to overall fundamental background. And this is not surprising when you have 10-year yield around 4.6% (which will be 5% within a month, we think) and collapse on stock market. As you could see recent rally has been rejected fast. Now we have few targets, but nearest one is based on bearish engulfing pattern, which we treat as the nearest one. It creates Agreement with Fib level. Thus 25.8-25.9K is the nearest thing to watch...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten