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Forexpeacearmy

27-27.4K is possibleMorning folks, BTC now is living from one news to another, with record low trading volume and no interest to the market from investors. Despite any short-term spikes, BTC has nothing to offer when Fed rate is around 5.5 and forward stock market yield is already lower than short-term T-Bills one. It makes us think that long-term bearish tendency is intact. In short-term, market has some upside momentum, after completion of our 24.7 XOP target and grabbing stops under 25 lows. Based on this momentum, it could try to climb slightly higher, to 27-27.4K area. But before this happens, we suggest that BTC will show deep retracement, so we should get new "C" point for our AB-CD upside pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Nothing to change - 24.7K on the tableMorning folks, BTC is totally dead, very anemic and tight action. 54% of all transactions now is just deposit/withdrawal operations from broker accounts... We have three reasons to keep our bearish scenario and 24.7K target intact: uncompleted downside AB-CD (XOP) target, signs of bearish dynamic pressure (MACD is bullish while price action is not) and high level of the US bonds yield. Whether pullback will happen or not - we will see, but definitely not before 24.7K target been reached.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Grayscale ETF hype has vapoured out fastMorning folks, As we've warned on Thursday - all this hype around Grayscale ETF is purely emotional and speculative. This topic just was used to shake the boat - that's all. Two days after everything returns back. As we've said already - we do not expect any rally if even Fidelity, BlackRock or whatever else ETF will be approved by SEC. Yes, minor emotional jump could happen but it doesn't change the fundamentals which are totally bearish for BTC. What really matter - is US yields, that are raising again. BTC recent performance looks bearish and we keep the same target valid - 24.7K, at least. We do not consider any long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
When the dust settlesMorning folks, Poor BTC has got occasion to show the rally on a background of Greyscale Hedge Fund and its SEC dispute. SEC has been obliged by court to review its decision, but, guys, to be honest - how this relies to BTC pricing? Whether it will be Hedge fund or ETF, what's the difference. Its just the way of money investing. Besides, SEC intends to make appellation and could find just different reason to deny. Anyway - we see purely speculative activity around this event that doesn't correspond to BTC pricing or value. And we think this is temporal. As a result of these conclusions, we keep valid our 24.70K daily XOP target and consider current levels interesting for short entry, as soon as we get some bearish pattern, such as "222" Sell, for example.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
No activity - no changes.Morning folks, So, markets are a bit frustrated by recent J. Powell speech and its indecision. Fundamentally nothing has changed - we still have bearish view on BTC market in long term. High interest rates and coming new spiral of inflation in the US leaves no chances to non-interest bearing BTC. When T-notes and T-bills already give 1.8% premium to S&P dividend yield. In short-term, we do not see any activity since our last update. This week we get the bulk of important data so, investors prefer to wait when they will get the numbers. Still, Strong downside momentum and flat action makes us think about 24.4-24.7K target as very probable one.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
24.75K and pullbackMorning folks, BTC performance once again shows that fundamental factors always dominate over news stream and hype. First is, we've got first Jacobi ETF in EU - and nothing. Investors start doubt about explosive reaction on BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs, whether people will bring their funds there. Second - while US yields jumped above 4% - BTC has collapsed. We expect further yields growth, rising CPI and possible another rates hike from the Fed this year. Technically, current drop breaks the back of the bulls. Drop under 24K area will open road to 12-15K lows again. Meantime, in short-term we expect reaching our final 24.75K daily target and moderate upside bounce then, as BTC could start forming big daily/weekly H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
28.1 & 26.5KMorning folks, So, market once again tells that fundamentals - rules, confirming our mid term bearish view and slowly but stubbornly going to our 28.1K target. Potential bullish scenario of rounding bottom (or cup), has failed, that we've mentioned last time. Now, we're watching for 28.10K downside AB-CD target, with potential continuation within few weeks to 26-26.5K area. The major reasons - take a look at the US yields. We expect that it will be higher, with next 10-year yields target around 5% within few months: Inflation will turn up again in the US as soon as mid September starting new upside spiral. We expect to see 2-digit inflation in the US by the end of 2024 early 2025. (If everything will not break earlier).
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Interesting point to considerGreetings everybody, BTC picture remains tricky. Fundamentally, we do not see any reasons for BTC rally and keep untouched OP target that we are discussing in lat two weeks. Still, since market is forming symmetrical round bottom on 1H chart, it seems it stands now in perfect position for long entry where risk/reward ratio is maximal. It doesn't guarantee success, but, gives chance to get minimal possible loss. Because if it goes up - it should go right from here. Otherwise it collapses. So, if you have reasons to buy - you could consider current area For confirmation of bullish changes market has to move above 30.4K level and form bullish reversal swing.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Fed reaction is weakMorning folks, So, first dive has happened. While all other markets - FX, Gold, Stocks show positive reaction on Fed statement - BTC can't support the major trend. This is indirect sign of weakness. Now price mostly is supported by 4H K-support area that you could see in our previous update. We do not see any reasons to take off the table our 28-28.5K target by far. To change the view we need stronger bullish context, reversal patterns that we do not have now. Thus, let's see what will happen around 29.8K resistance area. Supposedly it might be interesting for another short entry. In a case of upside breakout, most probable destination point is 30.3K and context could start changing...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Just waitingMorning folks, Situation is changing slowly here. Recent news of re-filling of big whales ETF registration with the SEC mostly have been ignored, as we do not see any inspiring action here. It means that overall technical picture has not changed too much. Our major bearish patterns are still in place - daily bearish engulfing, weekly bearish grabber. Markets looks heavy by far and shows inability to break through resistance. This makes us keep our trading plan and consider scenario with downside AB-CD, somewhere to 28-28.5K area. Later we could say this with more precision. By this reason we do not consider long positions now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Downside scenario is still validMorning folks, I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table. Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing pattern on daily chart, and possible downside AB-CD, based on it. Target is the same around 28-28.5K area which is the support on 4H chart. Now, on 1H chart we see that upside bounce, based on H&S is over (yesterday it was still in progress), and we consider 2nd leg of extension down. Theoretical chances exist that BTC could try to touch 5/8 resistance first, showing more extended upside bounce, before downside leg starts, but right now we do not see sighs of it, because H&S is done. If even this will happen, I mean 5/8 bounce, it doesn't change the core of scenario with large AB-CD downside pattern, but, just will change slightly the starting point.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
weak CPI reactionMorning folks, Today it is mostly sentiment analysis rather than technical one - because you will not find any more or less clear patterns on 4H chart now. But, what is really interesting - weak CPI reaction. Take a look at gold, at FX market and compares to BTC. Something is wrong here with the mood. ETF driver has exhausted, and market needs the new one, but doesn't exist by far. That's why we do not see reasons yet, to cancel our previous view that BTC could show deeper retracement, supposedly to 4H K-support area around 28.5-28.8K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
More bearish signs appearMorning folks, So, the ping-pong action that we've discussed last time is under way, but, Friday's performance was dramatic and shows weakness. BTC was not able to proceed higher, forming huge reversal bar on daily chart and bearish grabber on weekly. Although they coul have serious consequences, but for now we do not talk about breaking the tendency or something of this kind. Nearest support stands around 28K, so this should be frist target of potentially deeper retracement. Still, as price still stands inside our range - let's get first the touch of the lower border. And then see what will happen. We do not consider any new long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
IndecisionMorning everybody, So, first euphoria around BlackRock's ETF starts to fade and market immediately turns to indecision performance. Although our last time scenario has been completed accurately and BTC has re-tested the top, it was not able to proceed higher and continue major upside tendency. This makes us think that some time it could spend in flat, which is best scenario. But we also do not exclude more extended down, to 28.5K major support area. As usually we do with the range - depending on your preferable direction watch for patterns inside the range, take position closer to opposite borders or use stop entry orders around borders for the case of breakout. Now we do not have any clear patterns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
31.5 KMorning folks, As you understand all this rally and sentiment is based only on anticipation of BlackRock&Co ETF approvements from the SEC. Thus, recent volatility also has happened due to the same driving factor. SEC said that Fidelity files are inadequate, but later releases commentaries that the file should be changed a bit and re-send. As a result, on daily chart we've got two bullish grabbers, that suggest upward action at least to 31.5K top. Overall performance also suggests the same - market stands in tight pennant consolidation. Intraday performance is very choppy and stable. Usually this happens, when market prepares to challenge the top. Let's see
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Preparing for breakoutMorning folks, BTC keeps positive mood. Technically picture looks bullish. Price is forming tight pennant shape near the top - classical sign of preparation for breakout. But, keep in mind, of this bullish stuff is based only on Blackrock ETF file. The driver for the market is purely external. Just think what will happen, if SEC will deny the file, as it was with Fidelity two years ago... Thus, it is good looking now, but who knows, what will happen tomorrow. Pay attention to risk management. And yes, if everything will be OK with BlackRock and Fidelity files - nearest mid term target is 36-38K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Two things to controlMorning folks, BlackRock ETF file has made an explosive action in the news and triggered strongest rally on BTC of a last time. Technically this is good sign for the bulls, pointing that BTC starts new extension mode. Usually you're watching for two things on this stage. First is - market has not changed its mind and erased the rally. Second - strong support areas where you could consider long entry. For now, 28.30-28.80 looks interesting. Besides BTC was at daily overbought, which makes a bit deeper retracement probable.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten