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Forexpeacearmy

27-27.2K is in rangeMorning folks, BTC, on a background of common euphoria and anticipation of sooner Fed easing and QE has shown nice intraday rally, exceeding the level that we've specified as a target of retracement and potential resistance. Thus, expected bounce happened, but it has appeared to be much stronger. Now we have bullish reversal swing and a kind of reverse H&S shape. This let's us consider ~ 25.5-26K area support, where potentially right arm's bottom should be formed, for possible entry with bullish scenario. Nearest target is around 27-27.2K 4H resistance area. Just be aware of strong downside action and breakout of major 5/8 Fib support level around 25K. These two things that we do not want to see when we consider bullish continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
JPYEUR Falling Wedge PatternIn my opinion, JPYEUR appears to be showing signs of a potential reversal as it forms a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour timeframe, with the current price finding support at a specific level. The falling wedge pattern typically indicates a bullish reversal, suggesting that the downward momentum may be weakening. Considering this pattern and support level, traders might consider a potential long position on JPYEUR. However, it's important to manage risk effectively. Setting a stop loss at 0.0066178 can help limit potential losses if the market moves against the anticipated reversal. Additionally, a take profit level of 0.0066721 can be considered as a target to capture potential gains. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Long
by TopgOptions
SEC on FireMorning folks, We warned even in February that regulation will become one of the major drivers this year. And now we're getting only fist fruits. Our scepsis on reliability of current rally is confirmed by price action and explains why we haven't considered any long entry despite, at first glance, solid BTC jumps. On Thu, last week, we already warned about potential weakness on daily chart, as market was not able to re-start upward action from strong support area. Chances on downside continuation increases. On daily target remains around 24.2K. On this, 4H chart we have two more intermediate targets, based on potential butterfly. Market is forming flag consolidation right above the lows, which could mean preparation for challenge.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tight SEC holdingsMorning folks, So, SEC seriously starts working with crypto. If you believe that G. Gensler will easily relief this subject - you're wrong, we're just at the beginning of nightmare for Binance and Coinbase. Just understand that stocks regulation is detailed statement of owners, reserves, cashflows etc. etc. And I'm sure that a lot of blank spots will come on the surface if real regulation starts. Traders do not like "regulation" topic, treating its boring, but we've warned about it two months ago in our fundamental report, dedicated to regulation topic. Now what? Well, in short-term, while SEC is preparing next step and while the court will consider initial lawsuit bill, BTC could get relief. But, at the same time, chances on downside continuation are solid. Still, if you would like to buy - technically you have reasons to do this. On daily chart we have nice bullish engulfing pattern, including reversal session, and here, on 4H chart it takes the shape of reverse H&S, suggesting upside extension. Price is already at the bottom of right arm - particularly point for decision making. Don't hide stops too low, use puny reverse H&S pattern on 1H. This, at least minimize your risk. Bears, it turn, should wait for H&S failure and drop under 26K lows. In this case downside action starts, supposedly to next daily target around 23.5-24K area. Guys, I place the direction for this analysis as "long" just because of technical picture, but personally I will not participate in this trade due to high legislative risks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
26778Morning folks, We're keep watching for BTC suffering around bullish vital 26.5K support area. First pullback looks not impressive and is looking not like the start of new upside action. Now, market is coming on 2nd test. For the truth sake, our preferable scenario is downside breakout, just because of not friendly fundamental background. This week US Treasury starts grabbing liquidity for new 170 Bln Bond issues. Not too much, right, but this will happen week by week until the end of 2023, and until they grab ~1.5 Trln. Add here the Fed's QT of 95 Bln/week... So we will see... Meantime, today we have to watch for 26778 daily close price. If BTC will be able to hold above it, it keeps chances on some upside continuation. Breaking our support of 26.5K area means that we're going to next support area around ~24K. If you want to know precise downside targets, watch the video.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26.5-26.8 is a vital area for the bullsMorning folks, As we've warned you last time - don't be too happy with debt ceil rally, as it is nothing to celebrate by far. Formally, BTC keeps bullish scenario valid, but it stands at the edge. We suggest that 26.5-26.8 is a vital area for the bulls, because this is last logical retracement level. Downside breakout opens road to next 23K support and target area. It means that bears should wait for breakout under 26.5 or lower to think about short entry, while bulls should wait when xop (blue) target will be reached, then turn to 1H chart and watch for bullish pattern (say, reverse H&S) for position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tricky rallyMorning folks, So, Debt ceil achievement, as any external factor, has brought its own adjustment to technical picture. BTC emotional reaction is understandable, but what will happen, when, say bill will stuck in Congress or Senate? In both Houses we have very fragile majority of Rep and Dems correspondingly. But, most interesting - what will happen to BTC (stocks and other markets) when US Treasury will come on stage and start sucking all liquidity that it could? So, I wouldn't overestimate recent BTC reaction. Still, in short-term, 29K XOP target could be reached. We do not consider new shorts by far, waiting when upside momentum will exhaust. Around 29 K resistance we get big "222" Sell pattern. And It takes bulls awhile, how it would be better to buy. From risk/reward ratio, it makes sense to take position only if you could enter/place stop not lower than 27K, because target is just 1K above the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Fragile backgroundMorning folks, So, BTC confirms our suggestion of weakness and slipped a bit lower. It is big temptation to think about possible upside reversal, treating this price shape as "222" Buy, or even potential double bottom, but I wouldn't hurry up with this conclusion. In general, I would wait for more bullish signs. If this is upside reversal indeed - market very soon will make itself evident. With major upside target around 37-38K area, we should have a lot of chances to step in, once upside action starts. Besides, we see few tricky moments here. First is, price performance on daily chart, that re-tests achieved 26K target. Second, here, we have "222" Buy, but CD leg shows acceleration that is not good sign for the bulls. All in all, at least for me, bullish context is not sufficient, and I'm afraid that "222" easily will shift to butterfly with 25.3K target that we've considered last time. You could not sell, but be aware of taking long position too early.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Even weaker than we thoughtMorning folks, Last time we've discussed possible upside reaction on daily target and support area, and suggested, that BTC could try to take it in a shape of upside AB-CD pattern. Since we were not considering and are not considering right now any long positions due to our fundamental view on BTC. And upside bounce should be nice chance to sell at good price. But now it seems that BTC even weaker than we thought and is not able to show even upside AB-CD action. On daily chart we see signs of bearish dynamic pressure and the grabber suggesting drop to new lows. Overall performance, as you could see hardly looks like bullish reversal. Price action is heavy. So, we still do not consider any longs and suggest that downside action could take the shape of the butterfly. Nearest (but not last) downside target stands around 25.3K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
28.5K at bestMorning folks, Once our first major daily target around 25.7-26K has been completed, BTC has started reasonable retracement. By the price shape we can't treat it as upside reversal and suggest that most probable it could become an AB=CD shape up to 28.4K area, at best. Then, we think that downside action could continue. Our next downside daily target stands around 23.5-24K and we still keep it valid. We do not consider it, but if you want, you could think about long entry with tight stops, somewhere under 26.5K lows. Still, our major scenario is bearish and we consider upside 28.4-28.5K resistance area mostly for short entry purposes.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
PatienceMorning folks, So, our 1st daily H&S target is completed perfectly, in a way of downside AB-CD, with CD leg shape in a way of butterfly pattern. The question is - should be we buy already? I would say - no. First is, because daily H&S also has 1.618 ultimate target around 24K that agrees with major daily support area of 23.8-25K. But not this moment is a major reason. Take a look at overall performance - what bullish you could see in current action? Nothing. We do not have any signs of thrust, we do not have any clear bullish reversal patterns. Overall news and fundamental background hardly could be called as "friendly" for BTC rally. That's why we suggest to wait a bit and see what will happen. This is just for example, as one of the possible scenarios - if we get this H&S, then we could consider long entry around 27K. If nothing bullish will be formed - we need to prepare for another downside leg. And, to be honest, this is our preferable scenario for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26KMorning folks, We do not need to make drastic shifts to our trading plan as BTC is going accurate with it. The core is daily H&S pattern with 26K destination point. Next week was some risk around the top of right arm and it was seemed that BTC could break it, but it couldn't, and H&S starts to work. Now, market is coming to 27K neckline area. We do not consider any long positions. If everything will be OK - H&S major target of 26K should be reached. In more extended perspective, 25-26K has vital meaning. Downside breakout could open road to 12K and will be negative for bullish context. Conversely, ability to hold above it, will keep chances on 36-38K target intact
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
"222" SellMorning folks, Today we need just 1H chart to make an update, because BTC shows humble reaction on Fed statement, at least compares to gold market. Despite minor bounce - the daily H&S is still valid and we could talk about its failure only if BTC returns back into 30-31K range, at least. For now - the only Fed's fruit here is "222" Sell pattern. If you believe that H&S will fail, you could consider long entry around 28.5-28.6K area. Alternatively, bears could use this "222" for downside continuation. Maybe NFP will bring more clarity tomorrow. In general, current Fed policy is "loose-loose" for BTC. Higher rates will destroy stock and BTC market, while rate cut with 5+% inflation level promise also nothing good in longer-term perspective, as inflation will raise more, especially on a background of record budget deficit, and I'm not talking about debt ceil saga.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
25.5K Part IIMorning folks, BTC accurately follows to our daily H&S scenario. Now it seems that the top of right arm is in place already. If you're looking for bearish position taking but missed to do this around 29.5K area, discussed last time - here you could watch for 3/8 retracement on 1H chart, somewhere to 28.9-29K area. The top around 29.5K also is an indicator of H&S validity. Action above it could mean that H&S is failing and BTC is ready for immediate upside continuation. Until it stands valid, we're going with our downside H&S scenario to 25-25.5K target
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
25.5KMorning folks, BTC very accurately follows to our H&S shape. So, the right arm's top that we've discussed on Monday is completed now. For the bears - this is the moment of decision making on entry. Additionally, H&S is great directional indicator. Its failure (which we think as less probable scenario), suggests immediate upside continuation and 31K level breakout. While its traditional performance should lead BTC back to 25.5K area at least - H&S classic target and strong daily K-support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
26.5 - 28.5 - 24.5Morning folks, BTC accurately follows to our H&S plan. Our intraday target around 26.5-27K which is the neckline, is mostly done. Next step that we're watching is a forming of the right arm around 28-28.5K and then major extension to 24-25K area - strong daily support. Depending on your view you could choose corresponding positions. Intraday bulls could consider intraday bullish patterns(reverse H&S, butterflies etc) around 26-26.5K area with potential target around 28-28.5K, while bears should wait for this latter level for next short entry chance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
26.5 is vital support for the bullsMorning folks, Once our 31K OP target has been hit - BTC starts to show tactical signs of weakness. It is vital for BTC to stay above 25.5-26.5K support area to keep major upside trend with 36-38K destination point. Downside breakout of 26K support level could significantly increase chances on downside acceleration. In very short-term, we consider first step of downside retracement to 28.3K support area, in a way of puny H&S on 1H chart. Once it will be completed - our focus will turn to next one, large 4H H&S pattern and 26K support area, which also should become a neckline for big pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Last step until the way to 35-38KMorning folks, So, this part of our plan is done - market hits 29.4-30K area. Let's say "thank you", JPow. Does it mean that price is already on the way to next 35.5-38K target/resistance area? I wouldn't say it yet. Just because around 30.5-31K we have resistance. And before take position for further upward action, we have to be sure that this is real upside breakout. Thus, we need to see that market breaks 31K and holds above it, not drop back below 28K. This should become a confirmation that upside breakout is real. Conversely if we will see spike to 31K and fast reversal - wait and do not buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The same 29.4-30.9K in focusMorning folks, So, market stands quiet in recent 3 weeks and we have not many thinks to add to our previous view. In short-term perspective, we still think that here we should get some upside spike, supposedly to 29.4-31K at least. THus, we do not consider any short positions by far. Concerning longs one - we follow the same tactics of searching patterns inside the consolidation. Last week we already have made a deal with "222" Buy, now - the story could repeat and we could get another one with potential entry point around 27.5K. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2