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Gold rose and held at 2454 todayExperts say that the direction of gold this week will depend on the data released last week when the market lacked important new data. The most anticipated report of the week is the purchasing managers index (PMI) in the service sector for July. A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year, starting in September. Traders are currently pricing in about a 63% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
US Treasury yields have fallen sharply, dragging gold prices upGold prices rose more than 1.0% on Thursday, helped by a sharp decline in US Treasury yields after the release of US labor market data. Specifically, the number of jobless claims in the second week of November rose more than expected, reaching 231,000, higher than the forecast of 220,000. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits also surprised by rising to 1,865,000 - the highest in nearly two years, showing the difficulty of the US labor market. Weak economic data, along with CPI and PPI data released earlier in the week, reinforced the view that the Fed's rate-hiking cycle is over. This has had a strong impact on US Treasury yields, causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4.45%, approaching its lowest level since late September. With the market expecting the Fed to gradually ease monetary policy, gold prices could maintain an upward trend in the short term. This scenario will be confirmed if US economic data continues to weaken.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Gold rises due to Middle East geopolitical tensionsMarket expectations are growing that the Fed is preparing to cut interest rates in September. While gold prices remain on an upward trend, some investment firms are warning investors that the market will be volatile in the coming period. Fed funds futures are fully pricing in a September 2024 rate cut for the US, and the market consensus is for 100 basis points of cuts next year. However, with the European Central Bank and several other developed world central banks already starting their rate-cutting cycle, the US dollar remains firm, providing a headwind for dollar-denominated gold. On Thursday (1/8), the Bank of England (BoE) cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%. The Bank of England is now the third major central bank to cut interest rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve, along with the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
XAU rises on Fed policy and geopolitical tensionsGold prices rose above $2,400 ahead of the Fed's policy meeting, according to Sagar Dua, a financial analyst at Fxstreet. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time. In the monetary policy statement and press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reiterate that inflation has returned to the bank's 2% target. Powell may also highlight rising risks to the labor market. It will be difficult for Powell to set a timeline for a rate cut as the fight against inflation is far from over and the US economy is growing at a strong pace.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Inflation returns and sends XAU soaringThe strength of the US labor market appears to be fading as a restrictive policy framework remains in place. The unemployment rate in June, at 4.1%, was recorded as the highest in more than two years. In addition, JOLTS Open Jobs data increased almost steadily in June. The number of job vacancies in June reached 8.18 million compared to expectations of 8.03 million but lower than the previously released figure of 8.23 ​​million, indicating that demand for jobs has been waning. On the other hand, bullion also benefited from safe-haven buying after an airstrike killed a Hamas leader in Tehran, Iran. Israel is believed to have carried out the assassination. The news angered Iran and its proxy groups across the Middle East.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU is expected to fall sharply in the coming time.The price increase in the international market is mainly due to increased bottom-fishing demand. In the previous sessions, the precious metal fell quite deeply, at times down to 2,370 USD/ounce, but still held firm above the important support level of 2,350 USD/ounce - the 50-day average price. Demand for gold is overwhelming compared to the pressure from a rising USD. Gold is forecast to hardly decrease deeply and is ready to increase in price following the interest rate cut signals of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and purchasing power from major players in the world. If previously, central banks of many countries, including China, bought heavily, causing gold to skyrocket in late 2023 and early 2024, recently, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have stepped up their purchases of this commodity. The buying activities of large funds such as SPDR Gold Trust have made many people believe in a new rally in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU awaits Fed decision for fresh impetusGold (XAU/USD) struggled to stay above $2,400 and attracted some selling pressure during Monday’s trading session due to strong demand for the US dollar. Risk sentiment was also seen as a factor weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. However, geopolitical risks from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East provided some support for gold. Meanwhile, growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, reinforced by Friday’s US inflation report, limited the USD’s gains and helped limit the decline in gold. Moreover, traders opted to wait for the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ending on Wednesday. Investors will continue to monitor the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Wednesday, the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday and key US macro releases, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, this week. In addition, other economic data scheduled early in the new month will provide more information on the health of the global economy and determine the next direction for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
Trading strategy when gold fallsThe recovery in the US dollar has put pressure on the yellow metal. Accordingly, the US Dollar Index rose about 0.3% to a more than two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. According to Marex analyst Edward Meir, in addition to the recovery in the greenback, data from China showing that gold consumption in the world's largest gold consumer has decreased also affected the direction of gold. The latest report shows that gold consumption in China fell 5.6% in the first half of 2024 as demand for gold jewelry fell 26.7% amid high prices. However, demand for gold bars and coins has skyrocketed. Although gold was pressured by the greenback, experts said the decline of this precious metal was "slowed" by concerns about increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after a missile attack in the Golan Heights.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU slightly down todayToday, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), begins its first meeting of July and will end on Wednesday night - early Thursday (Hanoi time). The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also meet tomorrow and the Bank of England (BOE) will meet and end on Thursday. According to Fed officials, inflation is on track, more positive when the core PCE index, excluding food and energy prices, fell to 2.6% in June 2024, much lower than the 4.3% in the same period last year. The job market is having a soft landing when the unemployment rate increased from 3.7% at the end of 2023, to 4.1% in June.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Trading strategy for todayThe Fed is likely to signal plans to cut rates in September when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they see as leading to quarterly rate cuts through 2025. Rate markets are pricing in a 100% September move, with the possibility of two more cuts by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. “While the July FOMC meeting may be too early to start cutting rates, it is not too early to start preparing for a September cut,” Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients. Hours before the Fed’s decision, the BoJ is expected to detail its plans to reduce bond purchases this month at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, while most economists also see a chance of a rate hike. USDJPY fell 2.4% last week as traders priced in more than a two-thirds chance of a 10-bps rate hike, triggering a selloff in risk-sensitive developed and emerging market currencies and sending the Nikkei 225 into a technical correction.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU Recovers After 2 Weeks as USD WeakensXAU prices saw a sharp sell-off following the release of positive US macroeconomic data, plunging to a more than two-week low on Thursday. The preliminary estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy growing at a faster-than-expected pace and inflation falling in the second quarter of 2024. This suggests that the US economy is still holding up well and has created some stability in financial markets, thereby putting pressure on the precious metal - a traditional safe-haven asset. The bullish sentiment continued to keep gold prices on the defensive in the Asian session on Friday, although expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to start its rate-cutting cycle helped limit losses. Traders also turned cautious and awaited the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later Friday. This key inflation data will play a key role in determining the Fed's policy path.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU waits for news from the US Federal Reserve (Fed)Previously, gold had a strong sell-off after current US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race for the White House. The pressure to sell gold increased after this commodity increased previously and investors took advantage of taking profits in the context that they wanted to listen to more impact assessments of the rapid changes in world politics. The decline of many stock markets also caused gold to be sold to compensate for stock purchase contracts. However, bottom-fishing demand quickly increased again for gold. Demand increases quite strongly every time gold reaches the psychological support level of 2,400 USD or 2,395 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Gold prices decreased rapidly due to the impact of many newsThe fluctuations after the discharge of the initial PMI document had been now no longer too significant. Besides, earlier than the outlet of the 5-yr US authorities bond auction, gold expenses accelerated barely as yields decreased. But quickly after, the 10-yr authorities bond yield accelerated 2 bps to 4,274%, placing strain on gold expenses. Although the USD weakened barely, the effect become insignificant. CME`s FedWatch device suggests a 100% chance of a 25 bps price reduce in September; even as marketplace forecasts display that the Fed may also reduce hobby quotes via way of means of a complete of fifty three bps in 2024. Not to mention, India's reduce in import taxes on valuable metals additionally boosts gold call for. However, those high quality elements are nevertheless now no longer sufficient to face up to promoting strain. US Q2 GDP and center PCE facts could be launched these days and tomorrow, it's miles anticipated that the gold marketplace will stay volatile. Looking longer term, BMO Global Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Sadiq Adatia stated that elements consist of continual issues approximately the threat of recession, call for from significant banks and developing hobby from National funding budget can push gold expenses to new document levels.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
XAU the world plummeted without stoppingXAU the world plummeted without stopping Gold prices continued to fall without stopping, reaching a low of 2,370 USD/ounce at the beginning of the Asian session on Thursday morning. Thereby, world gold recorded a decrease of nearly 5% from the peak of 2,483 USD, or about 113 USD/ounce in just 7 trading sessions. Last night, the fluctuations after the release of the preliminary PMI report were not too significant. Besides, before the opening of the 5-year US government bond auction, gold prices increased slightly as yields decreased. But soon after, the 10-year government bond yield increased 2 bps to 4,274%, putting pressure on gold prices. Although the USD weakened slightly, the impact was insignificant. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September; while market forecasts suggest the Fed could cut interest rates by a total of 53 bps in 2024
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU rebounded after the FED pivoted its policyGold had a strong sell-off after current US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race for the White House. The pressure to sell gold increased after this commodity increased previously and investors took advantage of taking profits in the context that they wanted to listen to more impact assessments of the rapid changes in world politics. The decline of many stock markets also caused gold to be sold to compensate for stock purchase contracts. However, bottom-fishing demand quickly increased again for gold. Mr. Biden's abandonment of his bid to run for re-election as US President has paved the way for another Democrat, most likely Ms. Kamala Harris.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU is at a low price compared to last weekThe XAU price fell to its lowest in more than a week today as traders await more US economic data and comments from US Federal Reserve (FED) officials this week for further action. more clarity on the timeline for interest rate cuts. Markets see a more than 90% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, down from a previous forecast of 98%. Senior market analyst at FxPro Alex Kuptsikevich said that the simultaneous decline in the gold and US stock markets recently is not a good omen for this precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
The gold market increased slightly compared to the first day of While the current rally became pushed with the aid of using bodily factors, strategists say cash flows will gas the following rally. They notice that this modification is beginning to appear, predicting that gold fees may want to attain 2,650 USD/ounce with the aid of using the fourth region of 2024. | The XAU fee fell to its lowest in extra than every week nowadays as investors watch for extra US financial records and feedback from US Federal Reserve (FED) officers this week for similarly action. extra readability at the timeline for hobby fee cuts. Markets see a extra than 90% danger the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September, down from a preceding forecast of 98%. Senior marketplace analyst at FxPro Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the simultaneous decline withinside the gold and US inventory markets lately isn't always a very good omen for this valuable metal.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
Gold prices went upstream, surpassing the 2,400 markGold prices (XAU/USD) continued their recent correction from record highs hit last week and fell to their lowest in more than a week on Monday. US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential election has increased the likelihood of Donald Trump becoming the next US President, increasing expectations of a looser regulatory environment. This, coupled with the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) surprise interest rate cut on Monday, has fueled investor appetite for riskier assets and put heavy pressure on gold - safe haven assets. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's second presidential term is expected to push long-term inflation expectations higher, leading to an increase in US government bond yields. This has had a positive impact on the USD and contributed to promoting money flow away from gold - a non-yielding asset. However, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September limited USD gains and supported XAU/USD in climbing back above the $2,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
Pay attention to the core personal consumption expenditure indexThe latest Kitco News survey shows that Wall Street analysts expressed cautious views on gold prices this week. Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes that gold prices will move sideways in the short term. However, information related to the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) starting a cycle of interest rate cuts can cause gold to increase. Currently, investors are paying attention to the upcoming core personal consumption expenditure index (PCE). This is the index used as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. According to CME's FedWatch tool, more than 90% of the market thinks the Fed's interest rate cut is likely to happen later this summer. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, said that gold prices will continue to decline. According to this expert, through the weekly price chart, gold is still in a downtrend in the medium term. Last week, gold prices fell, ending a streak of 3 consecutive weeks of increases, which is completely consistent with the usual technical pattern.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa