market next move 🔻 Bearish Disruption Perspective:
1. Breakdown of the Support Zone
The highlighted red box is acting as support.
However, multiple retests of this zone indicate weakening support.
If price breaks below ~$35.50 decisively, it could trigger a bearish continuation.
2. Low Volume on Recent Candles
Volume appears to be declining during the latest consolidation phase.
A bullish breakout ideally requires increasing volume, which is not evident here.
This could indicate lack of buyer interest at this level.
3. Downtrend Momentum
The price is in a clear short-term downtrend (series of lower highs and lower lows).
Without a strong reversal signal (like a hammer, bullish engulfing), expecting a breakout may be premature.
4. Fundamental Risk Factors
Silver often reacts strongly to:
Interest rate decisions
USD strength
Inflation data
Forexsignal
Market next move 🟥 Disrupted Analysis: Bearish Divergence on EUR/USD (1H)
Weak Support Zone:
The price labeled as "Support" was never a well-tested zone. It appears to be a minor structure, and the bounce lacks strong confirmation or significant volume.
Volume Decline During Rise:
The recent upward candles show shrinking volume, a sign that the buying momentum is weakening, not strengthening. Bulls are losing energy.
Potential Double Top Formation:
If price action near current levels stalls, a double top could form, which is a classic bearish reversal pattern. Watch for rejection below 1.1550.
Bearish Target Zone (if reversal begins):
First target: 1.1450 (minor support)
Break below that opens 1.1370 zone (volume support area)
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📉 Disrupted Price Path (Opposing the Yellow Arrow)
Rejection
↓
┌─────────┐
│ ▼
│ Pullback to "Support"
▼ │
Breakdown │
▼ │
Target Zone ▼
Market next target
🔻 Bearish Disruption Analysis
1. Overbought Conditions / RSI Exhaustion
The recent bullish momentum appears strong, but it could be entering overbought territory, especially on the 1-hour chart.
A correction may follow if technical indicators like RSI or MACD start diverging.
2. Resistance Zone at 1.35000 - 1.35500
The price is nearing a historical resistance area around 1.3500–1.3550, where sellers have previously stepped in.
Without strong volume or a news catalyst, this zone may reject further upside movement.
3. Low Volume Breakout
The breakout visible before the arrows is accompanied by relatively moderate volume, which can indicate a false breakout or bull trap.
4. Fundamental Uncertainty
Upcoming U.S. or UK economic data (indicated by the flags on the chart) could disrupt the expected bullish move.
Example: A strong USD labor report or hawkish Fed comment could reverse the GBP/USD rally.
XAUUSD - 4H Breakout and Retest Setup🟡🟡🟡
🕒 June 17, 2025
Bias: Medium-Term Bullish
Structure: Breakout → Retest → Continuation
Context: Trendline break + confluence with EMA + prior resistance turned support
🔍 Market Structure Insight:
Major descending trendline broken with strong impulsive momentum.
Pullback held at the intersection of:
Broken trendline retest
EMA 60 dynamic support
Bullish structure of HL-HH (Higher Low / Higher High)
Strong bullish candle at support
✅ Trade Plan – Buy Stop Setup
Entry (Buy Stop): 3402
SL: 3373 (below the pullback structure + EMAs)
TP1: 3430 (local resistance area)
TP2: 3470 (measured move from previous leg height)
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
GBPJPY: End of Consolidation Phase, Eyes on 200.000?Hey Realistic Traders!
Could this be the beginning of a major bullish wave ?
Let’s Break It Down..
On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY has formed a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, followed by a bullish breakout, a classic technical signal that typically marks the end of a consolidation phase and the start of a new bullish trend. This move is further confirmed by the appearance of a strong bullish candlestick, reflecting a surge in buying momentum.
Supporting this bullish scenario, the MACD indicator has also formed a bullish crossover, where the MACD line crosses above the signal line. This crossover is widely regarded as a momentum shift from bearish to bullish, strengthening the case for continued upward movement.
Given these technical signals, the price is likely to advance toward the first target at 200.411, with a potential extension to 204.808.
This bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the key stop-loss level at 192.730.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on OANDA:GBPJPY ".
CHF/JPY Approaching the Danger Zone🧠 CHF/JPY Daily Chart
🗓️ June 18, 2025
Theme: "Approaching the Danger Zone – Will It Break or Bounce?"
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (near resistance)
Setup: Rising wedge into multi-year resistance zone
🔍 Market Structure Analysis:
The CHF/JPY has been riding a clean bullish wave since early 2025, but the pair now faces its most critical battle zone — the 179.50–180.00 multi-year resistance block, which previously marked a sharp reversal point.
The recent price action shows a rising wedge structure, which is often a bearish reversal pattern, especially when appearing near significant resistance.
🧬 Confluences in Play:
✅ Rising Wedge: Tightening structure indicates exhaustion of bullish momentum.
✅ Major Supply Zone: Price is approaching a high-likelihood reaction zone (180.00), where sellers aggressively took over in the past.
✅ Bearish Divergence Watch: (Not shown but likely developing on RSI or MACD)
✅ EMA Clustering: 15 & 60 EMAs rising, suggesting short-term momentum, but also acting as dynamic support if price breaks lower.
🔁 Scenario-Based Trade Plan:
🟥 Bearish Rejection Setup:
Entry: If price prints a strong bearish engulfing or pin bar near 179.50–180.00
SL: Above 180.20 (liquidity sweep buffer)
TP1: 174.50 (wedge base)
TP2: 172.00 (previous structure support)
TP3: 165.00 (macro demand zone)
R:R Potential: 3–5+
🟩 Breakout Continuation (Contingency Plan):
Buy Stop above 180.50 on strong close + retest
Targeting 184.00+ (measured move from wedge height)
🎯 Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 179.50–180.00
Trendline Support: 174.00
High-Volume Node: 172.00
Major Demand: 165.00–166.00 (long-term)
⚠️ Risks & Considerations:
JPY volatility due to BoJ surprises
CHF is sensitive to risk sentiment → geopolitical/macro shifts can rapidly flip bias
Wedge can fakeout before true move — confirm with volume + daily close
🧵 Summary Thought:
"Price is climbing a narrowing staircase into a wall. Will it punch through or trip on fatigue? Either way — the move from here is likely to be decisive. This is not the time to blink."
Share your Idea please...
#CHFJPY #MJTrading #Chart #Analysis #CHF #JPY
Market next target Disrupted Analysis: Bearish Outlook on Gold CFDs (1H Chart)
Support Breakdown Imminent:
The price is repeatedly testing the support area marked in red. Instead of holding strong, this indicates weak buyer interest. Volume is not spiking in support, showing no accumulation behavior.
Volume Divergence:
Despite prices consolidating near support, volume is decreasing, suggesting lack of conviction from bulls. This often precedes bearish breakdowns.
Bearish Targets:
If the current level at 3,352.990 breaks down decisively:
Immediate target: 3,320.000
Extended bearish move: 3,280.000 (prior demand zone)
Price Action Signals:
Lower highs forming consistently.
No bullish engulfing or reversal candles in sight.
Stronger bearish momentum candles (long red bodies with volume).
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📉 Suggested Disruption Chart Path (Instead of Bullish Arrow):
Support Area
↓
┌───────┐
│ │
▼ │
Breakdown │
▼ │
Retest Fail │
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Bearish Slide▼
BTC market update 19 6 ,2025The chart you've shared is a 1-hour BTC/USD (Bitcoin to USD) chart from Bitstamp, and it illustrates several technical patterns and a possible bearish setup:
Key Observations:
1. Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish):
From June 13–17, a rising wedge pattern formed (higher highs, higher lows, converging trendlines).
This pattern broke down sharply around June 17, which typically signals bearish momentum.
2. Bear Flag/Range Consolidation:
After the drop, BTC entered a sideways consolidation (highlighted in a red box), forming a rectangular range between ~104,950 resistance and ~102,830 support.
This could be interpreted as a bear flag or a distribution phase, suggesting continuation of the prior downtrend.
3. Bearish Projection:
The blue zig-zag line with the downward arrow suggests the analyst expects a break below the 102,830 support.
If this happens, further downside is likely. The measured move target could be projected from the height of the range (~2,100 points) below the breakdown point.
Summary:
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Key Support: 102,830
Key Resistance: 104,950
Next Move: Breakdown below 102,830 could lead to a drop toward ~100,700 or lower, if the bear flag confirms.
Would you like a trading idea or stop-loss/take-profit suggestions based on this pattern?
AUDCHF: Bullish Flag from PRZ — Rally to 0.54444?AUDCHF ( OANDA:AUDCHF ) bounced from the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , which aligns with the Yearly Support(1) and the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous bullish impulse.
From a Classic Technical Analysis perspective , AUDCHF appears to be breaking out of a Bullish Flag Pattern , which may suggest the continuation of the previous uptrend .
This bullish reaction also confirms the importance of the Support zone(0.51166 CHF-0.49773 CHF) , where buyers stepped in aggressively.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that AUDCHF has completed the bearish waves and we should wait for the bullish waves .
I expect AUDCHF to continue rising after a successful breakout from the flag’s upper boundary . If momentum sustains, the target could be around 0.54444 CHF .
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = 0.51972 CHF
Australian Dollar/ Swiss Franc Analyze (4-hour time frame).
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EURUSD Long Setup – Bullish Rejection from Demand ZoneEURUSD remains supported by strong eurozone fundamentals and broad USD softness. The pair has retraced into a key demand zone around 1.1490 and is showing signs of bullish rejection. With the Fed likely to pause further rate hikes and the ECB maintaining a steady tone, the bias favors further upside toward recent highs.
⚠️ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran conflict) have introduced mild safe haven demand, but so far the USD has underperformed versus the euro, suggesting EUR remains relatively insulated.
Watch for confirmation and entries within the blue demand box.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price retraced to a well-defined 1H demand zone between 1.1490–1.1500.
Setup: Anticipating a bounce from the demand zone targeting the recent high near 1.1620–1.1630.
Entry Zone: 1.1490–1.1500 (bullish reaction area)
Target: 1.1620–1.1630 (previous supply zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1439 (recent swing low)
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5
🧠 Fundamental Context (as of June 16):
EUR Bias: Bullish – ECB has paused cuts; euro is resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.
USD Bias: Bearish – Fed is on pause; soft inflation data and geopolitical risks weigh on dollar strength.
Key Drivers:
Fed dovish tone (FOMC pause, lower CPI)
Strong EU resilience despite global tensions
CHF and JPY attracting safe haven flows over USD
📅 Key Events to Watch:
US Core PCE (next major inflation readout)
FOMC commentary and Fed speakers
Eurozone CPI and sentiment data
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
GBPCHF Breaks Rising Wedge – Reversal Targets 1.0940 and 1.0815GBPCHF has broken down from a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern break comes near the 50% retracement level, with price now trading below ascending trendline support. With fundamental headwinds weighing on the British pound and safe-haven demand supporting the Swiss franc, the setup favors a short bias targeting the 1.0940 and 1.0815 zones.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Rising wedge → broken to the downside
Breakout Confirmation: Price has closed below the wedge support (trendline)
Key Support Levels:
1.0940 → 38.2% fib + previous structure support
1.0815 → 23.6% fib retracement + horizontal support zone
1.0608 → Full wedge base (longer-term target)
Resistance / Invalidation:
1.1150 – a close back above this level invalidates the breakdown
Candle Behavior:
Bearish structure forming with lower highs
Clean engulfing candle closed below wedge
📉 Bias: Bearish (confirmed technical reversal)
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP)
UK CPI expected to rise (3.3% forecast), which may limit BoE cuts, but not bullish enough to support GBP
Political uncertainty resurfaces (Labour slipping in polls)
BoE speakers are split; no clear support from policy
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF)
Safe-haven flows rising on:
Global growth slowdown
Tensions between U.S.–Iran
Downgrade of U.S. debt → risk aversion favors CHF
SNB remains cautious, but CHF gains defensive strength in risk-off conditions
🎯 Trade Setup
Bias: Sell
Entry Zone: 1.1080–1.1100 (breakout confirmation)
Targets:
TP1: 1.0940
TP2: 1.0815
TP3: 1.0608 (extension target)
Stop Loss: Above 1.1150
⚠️ Risk Factors
CPI surprise tomorrow could cause GBP spikes — be cautious around the release
If equities rally hard or CHF weakens globally, price could retest the wedge structure before falling
BoE hawkish surprise could challenge short-term bearish bias
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF has broken out of a rising wedge — a classic bearish reversal signal. The technical break aligns with macro weakness in GBP and CHF strength in a risk-off environment. Short trades remain valid below 1.1150, targeting a drop to 1.0940 and 1.0815 in the coming sessions.
GBPNZD Important Resistance and SupportThe pair is heading towards the resistance at 2.363, which has not been tested by the sellers, so there are still many sellers waiting in this area. The uptrend could extend to 2.276, the highest peak of last month.
If the resistance at 2.263 cannot be broken, then 2.238 is the sideway border of the pair, which helps support the price increase. When it breaks out, it confirms a reversal to the downtrend.
The price reaction zone can be noted around 2.229 before touching the strong support zone at 2.220.
Support: 2.238, 2.229, 2.220
Resistance: 2.263, 2.276
EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market:
Core PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation.
PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft.
Unemployment Claims:
Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K
Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market.
Market Outlook :
These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move.
DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum .
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame .
EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.