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Bearish Momentum Eases at 141.70 Support in USD/JPYFenzoFx—The USD/JPY currency pair resumed its bearish trend after breaking below 144.56 but steadied at the 141.70 support level. Indicators show sideways movement, reflecting a lack of momentum. With the price below the 50-period moving average, the bearish outlook persists. If the pair stabilizes below 141.70, the downtrend may deepen, while surpassing 144.56 could pave the way for a rise toward 148.20. >>> No Deposit Bonus >>> %100 Deposit Bonus >>> Forex Analysis Contest All at F enzo F x Decentralized Forex Broker
Short
by FenzoFxBroker
FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite. Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD. This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment. Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons: 1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain. 2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision. 3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position. The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess: • Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations. • Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth. • Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows. This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure. The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences: • Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads). • Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price). • Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect. The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity. Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No. While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic. Here's why: 1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity. 2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar. 3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of: o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed). o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States. o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)? o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa? 4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly. Conclusion The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
by bryandowningqln
BTCUSD TARGET COMPLETE Market Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – April 10, 2025 Price Action Overview: - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently consolidating between 79,161 and 81,520, with price action forming within this range. A move to 79,161 has been achieved, completing the target and fulfilling the bearish target outlined earlier. - BTC seems to be struggling around 81,500, and is showing potential signs of exhaustion at the upper end of the range near the resistance zone. Key Levels to Watch: 1. Resistance Zone (Red Box): - The resistance level is clearly marked near 82,000 and 81,500, with price struggling to break above this level. If Bitcoin fails to break out of this resistance zone, the price could reverse towards support levels. - The upper resistance zone remains a key level… ChatGPT: - An FVG (Fair Value Gap) is evident in the 79,161 to 78,500 region. This could act as an area to fill, and could potentially see price retracement or sideways consolidation before a possible move up. Market Structure Analysis: - Bearish Trend: Bitcoin's price has been on a downward trend forming a descending triangle, indicating bearish sentiment. - Breakout Potential: A breakout from the current consolidation zone will be important. Bitcoin will likely test 79,161 again. If it fails to hold support, further downside may be possible. Volume & Momentum: - Volume: The volume analysis shows increasing buying volume at lower levels, suggesting potential support around 79,161. However, the volume is diminishing at resistance levels, which indicates that bullish…
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXPERT117Ai
USOIL Oil – April 10, 2025 Price Action & Trend Analysis: - Current Market Position: - WTI Crude Oil is showing a bearish trend within a falling wedge pattern, a technical formation that often signals a potential breakout after consolidation. This pattern is visible with converging trendlines (blue), which suggest a potential move to the downside. - The resistance zone is marked at 61.50, and the price is struggling to break above this level. If it does not break out of this level, further downside momentum may be expected. Key Levels: 1. Resistance Zone: - The resistance level is clearly marked near 61.50, and price action has repeatedly struggled to move above this level, showing signs of rejection. A failure to break this l… ChatGPT: 4. FVG (Fair Value Gap): - There is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) near 58.12, which indicates a possible area of imbalance where price could potentially retrace to fill the gap before moving in its next direction. Volume Analysis: - The volume profile indicates decreasing volume as the price approaches the resistance zone at 61.50, which may suggest a weakening of bullish momentum. - The increasing volume near the support level at 58.00 suggests that buyers are looking to step in at these levels, but this remains to be seen as the price moves toward this region. Key Observations: - The bearish divergence observed between price and momentum suggests that bearish pressure is mounting, especially with the price failing to breach resistance and forming lower highs. - T
TVC:USOILShort
by EXPERT117Ai
BTCUSD ChatGPT: Chart Analysis for Bitcoin (1-Hour Timeframe) – April 08, 2025 Key Observations: 1. Price Action and Trend: - Bitcoin is in a downtrend, as indicated by the blue descending trendlines, creating lower highs and lower lows. - The resistance zone is near 80,000, with 79,161 acting as a key level of resistance. - Price is currently approaching the support level, which is in the range of 75,000 to 77,000, indicating a potential area for price reversal or further decline. 2. Order Block and FVG (Fair Value Gap): - The order block located near 79,161 to $79,000 is an important zone where price rejected and fell previously. This suggests that sellers have been controlling this level, and it may act as a strong resistance again if the price revisits. - … ChatGPT: - As Bitcoin approaches the support level, a surge in volume could indicate a possible breakout or a reversal from the support zone. 4. Target and Potential Movement: - The target for the current setup is 79,161, near the upper resistance zone, with potential upward momentum from the support area. - Bitcoin is likely to reach the 79,161 target after bouncing from the support zone. However, if the price fails to break through the resistance, a drop back to the support zone or even further downward movement may occur. Potential Scenarios: - Bullish Reversal: If Bitcoin bounces from the support level and breaks above the resistance at 79,161, it may push higher towards 80,000 and beyond. The FVG area will be a critical point to monitor for further upward m… ChatGPT: Currently, Bitcoin is at a pivotal point, testing support while trying to break through resistance. The next price action will depend on how Bitcoin reacts at these key levels. Traders should keep an eye on 79,161, which could be a crucial turning point for the market direction. If the support holds, a reversal is possible, but failure to maintain the support could lead to further declines.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXPERT117Ai
GOLDThis chart represents Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe. Several key price levels and technical patterns are identified, including resistance zones, FVG (Fair Value Gaps), and target levels. Let's break down the analysis: Key Observations: 1. Price Action & Trend: - The price of Gold has been moving downward, as seen from the red trendlines marking a downtrend. The price has faced resistance around the 3,141.644 level, which has acted as a strong supply zone. Following this, Gold showed a sharp decline towards lower levels. 2. Resistance Zone: - The resistance zone is marked at 3,141.644, which corresponds to a region where the price has previously encountered selling pressure. This level seems to have rejected the price multiple times, confirming it…- The FVG gap is highlighted around the range 3,120.00 - 3,141.644. An FVG represents an area where the price imbalance occurs, typically after a sharp price movement. In many cases, the market returns to fill the gap before continuing in the direction of the initial move. The FVG zone in this chart likely indicates a potential for a price retracement or consolidation before further price action. - As the price moves downward, the FVG zone is tested, and it might act as a rejection zone if the price moves back into it, suggesting a short trade opportunity. 4. Downward Price Movement: - The sharp bearish movement observed from the resistance level at 3,141.644 shows a breakdown, confirming a trend reversal. This move pushes the price below the previous su…
TVC:GOLDLong
by EXPERT117Ai
Bearish drop?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 0.8629 1st Support: 0.8405 1ast Resistance: 0.8769 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
2
Downside Risk Grows for NZD/USD After Structure FailThe NZD/USD pair has broken down from a well-defined rising wedge pattern, signaling a shift in short-to-medium term momentum. After trending within this rising structure for several weeks, price has now decisively violated the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakout. The move coincides with a sharp rejection near the 200 EMA, which continues to act as dynamic resistance overhead. Price is now hovering around a key support zone between 0.555 and 0.558 — a level that has historically served as a pivot point. The breakdown is also supported by a clear bearish RSI divergence, where price made higher highs while RSI formed lower highs, indicating weakening momentum. Currently, the RSI sits at around 32.47, approaching oversold territory but not yet showing signs of bullish reversal. If the current support zone fails to hold, we could see further downside pressure, potentially driving the pair toward the next major support region near 0.548–0.540. On the other hand, if buyers step in and absorb the sell-off at these levels, a relief bounce toward the broken trendline or the 200 EMA could be expected — though such a move may face strong resistance.
Short
by unichartz
GBPCAD - Is Bullish Breakout Ahead?TF: 4h GBPCAD is initiating along opportunity by completing 4th intermediate wave at 1.83464 . We can expect a retracement then reversal with near the lower trendline of the parallel channel. Once price comes down, we will have the opportunity to go long with minimum stop level at low of the wave 4 at 1.83640 . The bullish scenario is capable GBPCAD to provide 1.8654 - 1.8748 targets to the buyers. If the breakdown occurs, wave (4) will go deep. We update this chart time to time. Traders should only buy after a clear reversal.
by Money_Dictators
1
GOLD NEXT MOVESpelling Mistakes: "SOPPRT" should be "SUPPORT." Lack of Bearish Scenario: The chart assumes an upward movement, but what happens if price fails to hold the support zones? Volume Analysis Missing: Volume is shown, but its role in confirming trends is unclear. A breakout with high volume would be more reliable. 2. Alternative Perspective Possible Fakeout: The price may not break resistance and could retrace. Stronger Rejection?: The price might struggle at the resistance zone rather than pushing through easily.
TVC:GOLDLong
by mrsamfx81
Strong GDP, Weak USD – How Will EURUSD React!?Today's U.S. data showed strong GDP growth (2.4%) , but lower inflation ( 2.3% Final GDP Price Index ) and a weaker trade balance ( -147.9B ) suggest the Fed may remain cautious on rate hikes. This limits USD's strength , supporting a potential EURUSD rebound . EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is moving in the Support zone($1.08180-$1.0745) and has also managed to break the Downtrend line . 50_SMA(Weekly) plays a good role of support for EURUSD . In terms of Classic Technical Analysis and Price Action , there is also a possibility that EURUSD will return to an uptrend with Inverse Head and Shoulders and Bullish Quasimodo Patterns . Regarding Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has managed to complete the main wave 4 . The main wave 4 structure is an Expanding Flat Correction(ABC/3-3-5) . I expect EURUSD to trend higher in the coming hour s and rise to at least $1.0855 , and if the Resistance zone($1.0867-$1.0850) is broken, we should expect more pumping . Note: If EURUSD breaks below the 50_SMA(Weekly), we expect further declines. The worst Stop Loss(SL) could be $1.072. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree . Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
1
EUR/USD analysis – two Key Scenarioshello guys. The EUR/USD pair has witnessed a strong bullish surge, breaking through key resistance levels. However, two possible scenarios emerge from this critical point: 🔴 First Scenario (Bullish Continuation): Price could retrace to the 1.07-1.072 demand zone before resuming its upward trajectory. If support holds, the pair may climb towards the 1.10-1.105 resistance zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. 🔵 Second Scenario (Bearish Reversal): If bullish momentum fades, a deeper correction may follow, breaking below the key support zone. This could lead the price toward the 1.04-1.043 area, marking a retest of previous lows and reinforcing bearish sentiment. ------------------- Conclusion: The current level serves as a critical decision point. If price sustains above support ($1.072-$1.068), bullish momentum may continue. However, a break below could signal a bearish correction, shifting market sentiment. Traders should watch key levels for confirmation of either scenario.
Short
by melikatrader94
16
GBPUSD in Correction Phase – Potential for a Short OpportunityGBPUSD ( FX:GBPUSD ) is approaching the Support zone($1.286-$1.278) , Support lines and Important Support line . Regarding Elliott Wave theory , GBPUSD appears to have completed the microwave 5 of the main wave 3 with the help of the Ending Diagonal Pattern and is currently completing the main wave 4 . The main wave 4 is likely to have a Double Three Correction(WXY) . I expect GBPUSD to decline at least to the Support zone($1.286-$1.278) and Support lines . Note: If GBPUSD goes above $1.30 we should expect more pumping. The worst Stop Loss(SL) for a SHORT position could be $1.30. Note: If GBPUSD falls below $1.2760, we should expect more dumping. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. British Pound/U.S. Dollar Analyze (GBPUSD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
1
Perfect Bearish Setup Trendline Breakout Alert!Hello Trader! 👋 Scenario 1: 📉 Picture this: You're analyzing a solid bearish trend on the M3 or H1 chart, and you've just spotted a trendline break with serious potential for a sell opportunity. 🔥 The momentum is strong, and everything aligns perfectly. 🚀 The market is pushing lower, and it looks like it’s ready to move further down. The entry signal is solid, confirming a valid opportunity to take a short position! 📉 Now, the exciting part—the target zone! 🎯 We’re eyeing a liquidity area around 3000, which is a key level where price could see some action. 🔄 But wait, there's more! Your secondary target level is around 2990, which could offer even more potential for profit as the market drives lower. 💰 Of course, always follow your risk management**—control your position size, set your stops wisely, and let the market do the work! 🛑⚖️ Trading is all about discipline , and with the right mindset, you'll maximize those winning moves. 🏆 Stay focused, keep an eye on the price action, and be ready to react! 💪 Let’s trade smart and make those profits! 😎💥
TVC:GOLD
by ANNA_EXPERT