Strong bounce at the support areaIt is difficult to break the support area so there will be a correction depending on the scenario
Forexsignal
EURUSD Analysis==>>Reversal PatternsEURUSD is moving in the Resistance zone($1.0920-$1.0870) and near the Resistance lines .
If we want to analyze the EURUSD chart from the point of view of Classical Technical Analysis , two Reversal Patterns are clearly visible: Head and Shoulders Pattern & Bump-and-Run Top Pattern .
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Educational tip :👇
The Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern forms when, after a gentle upward trend, a more aggressive one appears on the chart. The price pivots at the peak and then falls like an avalanche.
In this scenario, only professional traders survive and thrive with considerable portfolio gains. In the following section, I will teach you how to make money when there’s blood in the snow!
This pattern forms when the price rallies too far up. People second-guess themselves buying at such high prices while sellers sell confidently, causing a downward trend. This means you can see a clear reversal in the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern. Although this pattern is considered a single entity, it consists of three separate parts or phases:
1) Normal and steady trend, called the “Lead-in Phase.” Imagine it as walking up a mountain.
2) Market participants going crazy with greed, called the “Bump Phase.” You can imagine this one as an ascent to the mountain’s peak.
3) The price falling and causing bloodshed of candles, called the “Run Phase.” At last, you ski down the snow, collecting profits on your way.
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According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD seems to have successfully completed five impulse waves .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
After breaking the support trend line and Neckline , I expect EURUSD to fall at least to the Support zone($1.0820-$1.0776) .
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
USDCAD → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupUSDCAD forms a false breakdown of resistance, reached the resistance zone, but was subsequently pushed back down.
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDCAD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
EURCHF Potential Sell SetupEURCHF Potential sell setup
Base on elliotwave advanced pattern, this is a high probabilistic sell setup
Importantly, your risk management will keep you in the game
XAU is at a low price compared to last weekThe XAU price fell to its lowest in more than a week today as traders await more US economic data and comments from US Federal Reserve (FED) officials this week for further action. more clarity on the timeline for interest rate cuts.
Markets see a more than 90% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, down from a previous forecast of 98%.
Senior market analyst at FxPro Alex Kuptsikevich said that the simultaneous decline in the gold and US stock markets recently is not a good omen for this precious metal.
The gold market increased slightly compared to the first day of While the current rally became pushed with the aid of using bodily factors, strategists say cash flows will gas the following rally. They notice that this modification is beginning to appear, predicting that gold fees may want to attain 2,650 USD/ounce with the aid of using the fourth region of 2024.
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The XAU fee fell to its lowest in extra than every week nowadays as investors watch for extra US financial records and feedback from US Federal Reserve (FED) officers this week for similarly action. extra readability at the timeline for hobby fee cuts.
Markets see a extra than 90% danger the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September, down from a preceding forecast of 98%.
Senior marketplace analyst at FxPro Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the simultaneous decline withinside the gold and US inventory markets lately isn't always a very good omen for this valuable metal.
Yen Bulls Hedge Funds Reduce Short Bets with BOJ Intervention The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been a story of woe in 2024, weakening considerably against the US Dollar (USD) due to a widening interest rate gap between the two countries. However, a recent shift in sentiment is brewing, with hedge funds reducing their bearish bets on the Yen in a significant move.
Hedge Funds Cut Short Bets on Yen in Historic Move
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the Yen by a staggering 38,025 contracts during the week ending July 16th. This marks the largest single-week reduction in short positions since March 2011, highlighting a potential turning point in the Yen's fortunes.
Despite this significant cutback, it's important to note that hedge funds remain net short on the Yen, holding a total of 76,588 short contracts. This indicates a cautious optimism, with some investors still hesitant to fully embrace a Yen rebound.
Intervention and Policy Shifts Fuel Yen's Rise
The retreat from short positions by hedge funds coincides with several developments that have bolstered the Yen. Most notably, the Japanese government is suspected of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. Reports suggest that Japanese authorities spent a substantial JPY 5.64 trillion (approximately USD 35.8 billion) over two trading sessions to prop up the currency from near its weakest levels since the 1980s. This intervention likely played a significant role in halting the Yen's decline and triggering a rebound against the USD.
Beyond intervention, the Yen has also benefited from shifting expectations regarding US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, which has been raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, may be nearing the peak of its tightening cycle. Increased expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in September have narrowed the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, making the Yen a more attractive proposition for some investors.
Trump's Comments Add Fuel to the Fire
Adding another layer of intrigue to the Yen's recent strengthening are comments from former US President Donald Trump. Trump, known for his unorthodox views on currency valuations, has reportedly criticized the weakness of the Yen. While his influence on markets is less pronounced than when he held office, his comments may have added a touch of uncertainty for USD bulls, potentially encouraging some to reduce their long positions.
A Tentative Rebound or a Long-Term Shift?
The recent developments surrounding the Yen paint a complex picture. While the reduction in short positions and the Yen's rebound are positive signs, it's too early to declare a definitive reversal. The overall direction of the Yen will likely hinge on several factors, including:
• Future Actions by the Bank of Japan (BOJ): The BOJ, unlike many central banks, has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. Any indication of a potential shift towards tighter monetary policy could further bolster the Yen.
• The Trajectory of US Interest Rates: If the Fed continues with its aggressive rate hikes, the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will widen, putting downward pressure on the Yen.
• Global Risk Sentiment: The Yen is often seen as a safe-haven currency. If global economic uncertainty increases, investors may flock to the Yen, driving its value up.
Conclusion: A Yen in Flux
The Yen's recent strengthening and the reduction in short positions by hedge funds represent a potential turning point. However, the future trajectory of the Yen remains uncertain, dependent on a confluence of factors. Investors should closely monitor developments in both the Japanese and US economies, as well as broader market sentiment, to gauge the Yen's long-term prospects.
AUDJPY trade ideaAUDJPY cureently on a downtrend. We had a short term bullish trend that has been broken and therewas a brake below a support level. A bearish engulfing candlestick would be a strong confirmation to enter a sell
The world XAU market turned around after rising higherAs mentioned to readers in yesterday`s edition, gold has suffered a downward correction after the Relative Strength Index operated withinside the overbought area, indicating that the room for rate will increase is now no longer too great. big and require modifications after a protracted length of rate will increase.
Currently, gold is likewise working pretty low however does now no longer have an effect on the primary fashion of rate growth with the rate channel as the quick-time period fashion and long-time period fashion. In the quick time period, the truth that gold can get better to keep above the technical stage of 2,430 USD might be an excellent signal for it. On the alternative hand, if gold recovers lower back above $2,449, it's going to mark the stop of the downward adjustment cycle.
During the day, gold may want to preserve to accurate similarly as soon as it's miles bought below $2,420 with a next drawback goal of around $2,400.
The downward correction cycle from the uptrend of gold expenses might be observed once more via way of means of the subsequent technical levels. Support: 2,420 - 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 - 2,449USD
Gold prices decreased for two consecutive sessionsGold prices continued to decline on Thursday, although remaining around the old peak of $2,450. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around 2,444 USD, down more than 1.5% from its peak of 2,483 USD due to the greenback's recovery, supported by rising US government bond yields.
Jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that more people than expected applied for unemployment benefits, signaling a slowing economy. This, along with last week's string of data showing inflation moving toward the 2% target, could prompt a change in stance from Fed policymakers.
The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims increased more than expected last week, but according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, the labor market did not change significantly.
Finally, Fed officials have expressed that the central bank may be "getting closer" to lowering interest rates as inflation and recession risks have become more balanced. Still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the Fed should not rush to cut interest rates until the end of 2024.
EURGBP Trade Setup following ECB Interest Rate Decision.Taking a look at the daily tf, price action closed above the last candle where we saw strong rejection following a retest of the descending support.
Today the ECB also left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%.
Even though this is a low risk to reward setup, I believe it has a good chance of becoming a winning trade.
GBPJPY → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupGBPJPY s moving to the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
The volatility of the movement has decreased.
The price has reached the resistance level.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Shorting EUR/USD Amid Market SpeculationsWe are taking a strategic short position on the EUR/USD pair. The major currency pair has experienced strong gains recently, primarily driven by the US Dollar (USD) being under pressure due to firm market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in September.
Despite this bullish momentum, the EUR/USD pair seems to be approaching a resistance level that could trigger a reversal. This anticipated reversal aligns with our identified Supply area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. These technical indicators suggest that the pair is poised for a potential downturn.
Additionally, our analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, focusing on non-commercial speculators, supports this outlook. The data indicates a possible shift in market sentiment that could favor a bearish move. Coupled with our seasonal forecast, which also points towards a downturn, the confluence of these factors strengthens our case for shorting the EUR/USD pair.
In summary, the combination of technical resistance, COT data, and seasonal trends presents a compelling case for a short position on the EUR/USD. We are confident that the alignment of these factors provides a robust foundation for our trading strategy, anticipating a reversal from the current levels.
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EURUSD Roadmap==>>1-hour time frameEURUSD is moving near the Resistance lines and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)($1.084-$1.081) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD seems to be completing the Expanding Ending Diagonal .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
I expect the EURUSD to decline at least to the target I have specified on the chart.
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Investors wait for the consumer price index in JuneThe market is expecting the first interest rate cut to take place in September. In general, the market believes that Powell's statements do not contain any new hawkish information. Maybe Mr. Powell will not offer any surprises in his comments.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday (July 9) echoed Mr. Powell's comments by saying that the US labor market is no longer driving inflation in the country. Traders and investors are now awaiting the June US consumer price index and producer price index reports released this week.
Elsewhere, in the Middle East, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that if Hamas reaches a ceasefire agreement in Gaza with Israel, Hezbollah will stop its activities without separate negotiations. Previously, the group began shooting at Israeli targets on the border in support of the Palestinians after their ally Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, leading to the war in Gaza.
The world XAU continues to increaseWorld gold prices today (July 11) continued to increase after the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's report on the health of the US economy.
In reporting the nation's economic health to the House panel, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US job market had "cooled significantly". This further increases speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates later this year.
The market is expecting the first interest rate cut to take place in September. In general, the market believes that Powell's statements do not contain any new hawkish information. Maybe Mr. Powell will not offer any surprises in his comments.
GBP/USD : Ready for more Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart, we observe that the price started to rise exactly as we expected from the specified area, achieving a gain of over 170 pips and reaching the supply zone of 1.28470! As you can see, after reaching this zone, the price experienced a correction and is currently trading around 1.27840. I expect this decline to continue, and we will soon see the price reach lower levels.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Gold next sell Ahead 2372.00 - 2374.00#XAUUAD ( Update..! )
Till end Today gold I think will running with bullish market. Next resistance area located at 2375 - 2385. Better to avoid getting sell orders till reach that price or broke nearst support.
However I got some different idea also. In 15M timeframe after I analysis it shows me price will going to 2342.00 level after reaching 2364.00 - 2367.00 level. It's unusual for me. So be careful.
World gold increased sharply after many fluctuationsThe world gold market will likely be more exciting this week after escaping the gloom for a long time. The price of this precious metal is expected to be affected by the Fed Chairman's statement
Optimism is covering the gold market, as recent data shows cracks in the US economy, a weakening US labor market and falling inflation. All the data reinforces the possibility that the Fed will soon introduce monetary policy easing and lower interest rates, which should support the price of the precious metal gold.
Gold price on Kitco closed the trading week at 2,388 USD/ounce. Gold futures price in August traded at 2,399 USD/ounce.
Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey shows that almost all experts and retailers have a positive outlook for gold prices this week.
2,285-2,448 created firmer support and resistance levels.Gold prices are expected to increase because interest rates will lower and the USD will weaken. Gold prices are testing levels above 2,400 USD/ounce. Indicators show that gold prices have an upward trend.
Gold prices are expected to continue to increase in the near future. Gold price for August delivery is approaching 2,400 USD/ounce.
World gold price opened at the beginning of the week at 2,326.72 USD/ounce, maintaining within the range of 15 USD on Monday and Tuesday sessions. On Wednesday, a series of economic data announced, world gold price increased to 2,363.77
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still the focus of attention. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified with the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.
The market will also pay close attention to the US CPI in June, weekly unemployment claims, and the University of Michigan's preliminary survey of consumer sentiment.
GBP/USD Advances Towards 1.2800 Amid Weak US Economic DataOn Thursday, the GBP/USD pair advanced towards the 1.2800 mark. Renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) propelled GBP/USD higher as markets reacted to disappointing macroeconomic data releases.
The ADP's monthly report indicated that payrolls in the private sector increased by 150,000 in June, falling short of the market expectation of 160,000. Additionally, the Department of Labor reported 238,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 29, up from 233,000 in the previous week.
Moreover, the ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, signaling a contraction in the service sector's business activity. The survey details revealed that the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index declined to 46.1 and 56.3, respectively.
From a technical perspective, we anticipate a potential reversal in the supply area where we have set a pending order. Our seasonality analysis also suggests that GBP/USD typically begins a bearish trend during this period of the year, lasting until October. Therefore, we are looking for a bearish setup.
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EUR/USD : Bulls are coming ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we observe that after filling its gap, the price is stabilizing above 1.071. Considering the price structure and market conditions, we will likely see an upward move towards higher targets. The next liquidity pool is around the 1.077 range. Keep an eye on the price movement within this demand zone.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EUR/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum, Surpasses 1.0800As anticipated in our previous forecast, EUR/USD has continued its bullish momentum, climbing above the 1.0800 level.
Analyzing the chart, you can observe the areas where we have marked the closest supply zone, which we expect the price to reach before any potential decline.
Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US triggered a selloff of the US Dollar (USD) during American trading hours on Wednesday, aiding the EUR/USD's upward movement.
The ADP reported that private sector payrolls increased by 150,000 in June, missing analysts' estimate of 160,000. Additionally, the Department of Labor's weekly data showed 238,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits, up from 233,000 the previous week.
Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, indicating a contraction in the service sector's business activity. The Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index of the PMI survey also dropped to 46.1 and 56.3, respectively.
Looking ahead, tomorrow's release of USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to introduce further market volatility. Our forecast remains bullish until the price reaches the identified supply area.
✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
