Forexsignal
Nonfarm prediction April 5, 2024Gold fell back after an unsuccessful attempt to stabilize above $2,300. Traders withdrew some profits after the strong rally.
Gold is still in an overbought state so there may be more downward momentum in the near future.
Prediction information from Nonfarm is currently inconsistent on one side when the Average Income Index / Hour is growing strongly at 0.3% but Nonfarm is predicted to decrease compared to the previous period and Nonfarm prediction ability decreases. is extremely high when unemployment claims are at a high level and because of this, the Fed is also highly likely to reduce interest rates to attract more jobs.
Trading strategy before Nonfarm news on April 5World gold prices fluctuated slightly with spot gold down 9 USD to 2,290.7 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,310.5 USD/ounce, down 10 USD compared to yesterday morning.
World yellow metal prices stabilized on April 4 (US time) after previously conquering an all-time high of over 2,300 USD/ounce thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will conduct further easing. loose monetary policy this year.
According to TD Securities commodity strategist Bart Melek, market expectations increased after the Fed Chairman's recent speech. Accordingly, Mr. Jerome Powell agreed that lower policy rates would be appropriate “at some point this year.” He and other Fed officials also emphasized that more economic data is needed before making a decision to loosen monetary policy, a move that financial markets expect will take place in September. 6.
According to market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa of Kinesis Money, strong demand from Asian markets, especially from China and solid demand from central banks, geopolitical risks and expectations surrounding interest rate cuts by central banks are factors that have fueled the rise of gold in recent times.
Strong central bank buying and solid safe-haven capital flows amid growing geopolitical tensions have boosted demand for gold, up more than 25% since October.
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highlight a concerning trending progress only I think Xauusd more bullish
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XAUUSD SELL opportunity 2200
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Continue to conquer new recordsWorld gold prices continued to increase sharply with spot gold increasing by 29.9 USD to 2,281 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,302.10 an ounce, up $29.50 from the bright spot.
World yellow metal prices continued to conquer new records on April 2 (US time) thanks to being supplied by safe-haven demand amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. The gold market has sparked the strength of the USD and expectations of cutting US interest rates and continuously conquering new records.
TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said that gold received support from safe-haven demand due to concerns related to the Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria earlier this week.
On that side, experts also believe that strong demand from retail investors and central banks around the world is also a factor that helps prolong the growth of this precious metal. The combination of factors has helped the price of gold increase nearly 10% from the beginning of the year until now.
The dollar jumped after data released earlier this week showed US manufacturing posted growth for the first time in 1.5 years in March. After the report, traders reduced their bets. bet on the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will loosen monetary policy in June to 58% from about 60% previously. This would normally put pressure on non-coupon bullion prices. However, the price of this precious metal is still "galloping" and breaking many new highs in just 2 days.
xauusd chartGold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Mostly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven. It's traded constantly based on the intra-day spot rate. Improve your technical analysis of live gold prices with the real-time XAU/USD chart, and read our latest gold news, expert analysis and gold price forecast.
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AUD/CAD Long Idea 04/04This is just a simple idea of what I think will happen for AUD/CAD tomorrow(04/04). I am not a financial advisor nor is this financial advice, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
I feel as if price will test the PWH (0.88984). Pullback to the bullish FVG (Fair value gap) earlier to somewhere around 0.88587 & take off. I see it def clearing PWH(previous week high) after test final destination a supply zone, found on 1hr, around 0.89344- 0.89503, also is PMH(previous month high). 9 & 50 SMA are crossing indicating bull trend reversal. RSI is getting to overbought levels but that is why i think it would be such a deep pullback to fuel a strong push up. Thanx for reading, open for any comments or feedback
AUDUSD: 03/04/2024
Please be informed that we should wait for the price to rise to our level and then wait for a clear reversal on the daily timeframe. Currently, we are observing strong bearish signals on the DXY, and due to the overbought condition on the DXY, the price is likely to decline further and undergo a significant correction. It is crucial to monitor the DXY rebound, as there will be news on Friday that will significantly impact USD pairs, including AUD.
Wishing you the best of luck and safe trading.
GBP/USD Consolidates Amid Economic Data AwaitedFollowing our previous analysis, GBP/USD experienced a breakout of the bearish triangle pattern within a bearish trend. Yesterday, the price retraced to a resistance area and is currently consolidating during the European session as it seeks direction for its next movement. Our outlook for GBP/USD aligns with our approach for EUR/USD, anticipating a continuation of the push-down after the release of today's economic news. We will employ a swing trading strategy, with the current pullback potentially serving as a trigger for further downward movement.
In the latter part of the day, the ADP will release private sector employment data for March. Expectations are for private payrolls to increase by 148K, following February's 140K rise. A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster the USD and exert downward pressure on the pair.
Later in the American session, attention will turn to the ISM Services PMI for potential market-moving insights. A notable uptick in the Prices Paid Index, which measures inflation within the PMI survey, could reignite concerns about sticky services inflation and prompt investors to reassess the likelihood of a policy shift in June. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 37% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in June.
In light of these factors, our stance remains tilted towards a bearish continuation for GBP/USD.
EUR/USD Sees Volatility Amid USD Weakness:Swing Trading ApproachThe EUR/USD pair experienced notable volatility on Tuesday, following our previous forecast indicating a potential bearish continuation. Despite initially touching previous support-turned-resistance levels, the pair managed to close in positive territory. Currently, it remains within our Fibonacci levels of interest, signaling a possible continuation of the bearish trend. Our strategy for EUR/USD swing trading revolves around anticipating another bearish impulse.
The USD exhibited weakness during the American trading session on Tuesday, providing support for the rebound in EUR/USD. Despite a negative shift in risk sentiment, investors refrained from placing bets on an extended USD rally.
Market participants are now closely watching the release of the ADP Employment Change data from the US. Forecasts suggest an increase of 148K jobs in March. Any print at or below 100K could trigger a selloff in the USD, prompting an immediate reaction.
Additionally, the ISM Services PMI data is set to be featured in the US economic docket. Earlier in the week, the USD showed strength following better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data, particularly the sharp rise in the Prices Paid Index. A similar reaction may occur if the ISM Services PMI beats analysts' estimates.
In light of these developments, our outlook for EUR/USD leans towards a bearish continuation of the trend.
Gold Market UpdateGOLD MARKET UPDATE :
Can a sustained rate cut outlook maintain Gold's rally?
- Gold hit its all-time high yesterday after the JOLTS Job Openings release.
- The data showed a more steady result with 8.756 mln job openings, up 8k from the previous month.
- However, the data may not have been sufficient to alleviate concerns about the US labor market's overall health
- XAUUSD has sustained the upward momentum since bottoming mid-March this year. The price has recorded all-time highs in the last four trading days.
- If XAUUSD sustains its upward momentum without retracement, the price may test the next potential psychological resistance at 2,300-2,350 USD per troy ounce.
- On the contrary, XAUUSD may return to 2,200-2,225 USD per troy ounce if the price retraces before its continuation.
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.
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