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EUR/USD Struggles for Direction Amid ECB Rate Cut UncertaintyEUR/USD Struggles for Direction Amid ECB Rate Cut Uncertainty The EUR/USD pair finds itself in a tight trading range below the 1.0900 and 1.08500 levels during the European session on Wednesday. Traders appear cautious, refraining from making aggressive directional moves as uncertainty looms over the potential timing of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Rate Cut Speculations: The first ECB policy rate cut is anticipated in April, with markets pricing in a total reduction of 135 basis points (bps) by the end of 2024. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's recent signal that borrowing costs may only start decreasing in the summer, contingent on supportive economic data, has left traders in a wait-and-see mode. The focus now shifts to the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, seen as a pivotal event that could significantly impact the EUR/USD pair. Event and Data Risks: This week brings forth critical event and data risks, with preliminary estimates of the January Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) set for release on Wednesday. These indicators will provide insights into the economic activity within the Eurozone and potentially influence the market sentiment. However, the real highlight of the week remains the ECB meeting on Thursday, where market participants anticipate clarity on the central bank's stance regarding interest rates and monetary policy. OCBC Bank's Analysis: Economists at OCBC Bank are closely analyzing the outlook for the EUR/USD pair. They suggest that an improvement in the PMI print could act as a catalyst, giving the Euro a renewed boost. Positive economic data may sway sentiment in favor of the Euro, offering traders additional insights as they position themselves in the market. Technical Perspective: From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias in higher timeframes. The current retracement, hovering around the 1.08500 area and in confluence with the Dynamic trendline, the 61.8%, and 78.6% Fibonacci zones, presents an interesting zone for potential buyers looking for discounted prices. This area could serve as a launching pad for a new bullish impulse, with the target set around the 1.1000 level. Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair faces a challenging environment as traders navigate uncertainty surrounding potential ECB rate cuts. With the focus on the ECB meeting and key economic indicators, market participants are adopting a cautious approach. The technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with the retracement presenting an opportunity for buyers to enter at a discount. However, the true catalyst for a sustained move may come from the ECB meeting and positive PMI prints, providing clarity and direction for the EUR/USD pair in the coming sessions. Traders are advised to stay vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly in response to unfolding events and data releases. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Gold continues to decline, today's strategy is mainly to sellWorld gold prices increased slightly this morning with spot gold increasing by 8.3 USD to 2,028.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,030.6 USD/ounce, up 8.4 USD compared to yesterday morning. World gold prices were adjusted up slightly as investors waited for a series of US economic data this week to get more signals about when to cut interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to RJO Futures senior market strategist Daniel Pavilonis, the gold market is in a neutral environment as prices continue to remain above $2,000/ounce and are unable to break out of the current range. This week, the market is awaiting the preliminary US Purchasing Managers' Index report due out on Wednesday, fourth-quarter GDP data expected on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure data on Thursday. Friday for more signals on the interest rate direction of the US Central Bank. Fed officials said last week that the US Central Bank needs more data before making any comments regarding any interest rate cuts and that the timing of loosening monetary policy may be later. much higher than market expectations.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
CHFJPY SELL | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL . GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity CHFJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
3
EUR/USD Awaits ECB Meeting Amidst Shifting Market DynamicsEUR/USD Awaits ECB Meeting Amidst Shifting Market Dynamics The EUR/USD pair is registering modest gains, hovering near the 1.0900 area in the early European trading session on Monday. All eyes are on the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming January monetary policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday. As of the latest update, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0897, reflecting a 0.03% increase for the day. Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, the price experienced a rebound around the 1.08500 support area, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the Dynamic trendline. These factors contribute to the pair's attempt to gather new bullish momentum for a sustained upward movement. Shifting Market Sentiment: Market sentiment has witnessed a shift as doubts grow regarding the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in March. Last week's positive US economic data, including Retail Sales and the Consumer Sentiment Index, have contributed to this change. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March has decreased to 49.3%, down from 81% just a week ago. ECB's Cautious Stance: In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council members are exercising caution against prematurely easing financial conditions. The January policy meeting on Thursday is not expected to bring any policy changes. Traders will be keenly watching ECB President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting speech for indications on potential rate cuts this year. Investors anticipate a gradual approach by the ECB, with interest rate cuts likely in the spring, driven by sustained progress towards the 2% inflation target. Upcoming Events: The ECB's monetary policy decision is scheduled for Thursday, and no policy changes are anticipated. Additionally, Thursday will see the release of the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4). On Friday, the Commerce Department will unveil the December reading on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), a key inflation gauge for the Fed. Conclusion: As the EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish stance, the spotlight is on the ECB meeting and evolving market dynamics. Technical indicators suggest a potential upside, but external factors, including the Fed's stance and US economic data, contribute to the complex currency landscape. Traders should stay attentive to central bank communications and economic releases for a comprehensive understanding of the pair's future movements. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.10170 & 1.1140 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USDCAD BUY | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDCAD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Long
by TheGrove
1
Trading strategy at the beginning of the week, entry sellGold prices reversed and decreased because investors continued to take profits, as the market was preparing to receive new economic information, as well as preparing for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to enter its first monthly meeting. 2024. Experts predict that the US economy is about to release its 2023 report, with good growth expected and stable employment. When economic growth is good, stocks increase positively. The USD also increased. Investors in the world market previously gathered gold, but they returned to take profits to buy stocks as soon as possible. Therefore, gold as a capital reserve will decrease in price deeply in the future. On Tuesday, the dollar strengthened and put pressure on gold as US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller made "hawkish" comments about cutting interest rates this year. According to Mr. Waller, the US is still far from the 2% inflation target, so the central bank should not rush to cut interest rates until it is clear that lower inflation will be maintained. Previously, many Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, told Bloomberg TV that it was too early to loosen monetary policy in March. Comments from Fed officials showed that The Fed believes that interest rate cuts will come much later, most likely at the end of the second quarter of this year. The report released Wednesday showed that retail sales in December increased 0.6% from the previous month. This strengthens the Fed's determination not to cut interest rates prematurely. However, gold reversed course Thursday as market attention turned to concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions. Safe haven demand has reduced pressure on interest rate expectations and helped gold increase slightly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
🔥 XAU/USD - a little Long , Then SHORT ! (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining the gold chart in the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the price started to fall from the 2017.5$ range after the analysis I presented and corrected up to 2007$! After that, the price faced buying pressure again and is currently trading in the range of $2020, and the closest supply range to gold is $2023 to $2026! Other assumptions of the previous analysis are still valid! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
Gold suddenly reversed growth again, an opportunity to sell GOLDWorld gold prices reversed and increased sharply with spot gold increasing by 27.1 USD to 2,022.4 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,025.1 USD/ounce, up 18.6 USD compared to yesterday morning. Developments in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand for gold on Thursday (US time), helping gold escape its previous five-week low under pressure from changes in interest expectations. productivity after economic report was stronger than expected. According to senior market strategist Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures, amid much uncertainty, gold prices will be kept above $2,000/ounce. On January 17, the US Government returned the Houthis in Yemen to the list of terrorist groups as they continued to conduct attacks on commercial and military vessels. In addition to the instability factor, speculation surrounding the timing of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is also affecting the direction of gold. Currently, investors are still waiting for further information to learn more about the Fed's future interest rate direction. Currently, most opinions believe that interest rates will be cut if published data shows that inflation "cools down" significantly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Thursday that he supports cutting interest rates sooner if there is "compelling" evidence that inflation is falling more sharply than expected. In a recent statement, he said that inflation could be "volatile" if policymakers cut interest rates too soon.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
💡Gold: Rises in Asian Session on Technical CorrectionDuring the early Asian session, gold experienced an increase, signaling a probable technical upward correction following a 1.15% decline in the front-month Comex gold for January delivery on Wednesday. According to Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, robust buying activity in China is bolstering gold prices. In a recent research report, Ghali highlights that the top ten traders on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have augmented their net long positions by nearly 10 tons since the New Year holidays. Currently, spot gold is showing a 0.1% rise, reaching $2,008.75 per ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Stone_Haven