xauusd stron down next movePrice is in a resistance/selling zone near 3,310–3,340.
Expected to reject and drop to the target/support near 3,260.
Strong bearish bias based on resistance zone.
Disruptive Bullish Scenario:
Breakout Confirmation:
If the price breaks and closes above 3,340, this invalidates the resistance zone.
This would trigger stop-losses from sellers and initiate buy momentum.
Volume Spike & Momentum:
Forexsignal
Market next target
Disruption: Bearish Counter-Analysis
1. Rising Wedge Pattern:
The price action resembles a rising wedge, not a bullish channel.
Rising wedges are typically bearish reversal patterns, especially after strong prior bullish moves.
2. Decreasing Volume:
Volume is tapering off as price climbs, which often signals weakening buying pressure.
Lack of strong volume near resistance suggests potential fake-out risk.
3. Bearish Divergence Risk:
Not visible here, but on RSI or MACD, rising price with slowing momentum often triggers bearish divergence.
This could suggest an imminent drop.
4. False Breakout Trap:
The highlighted resistance zone could trap late buyers.
A fake breakout followed by a strong red candle could trigger stop-loss hunts, dragging price sharply lower.
5. Macro Event Warning:
The U.S. flag at the bottom suggests high-impact news is due.
If USD strengthens, GBP/USD may reject the resistance and drop fast, invalidating the long setup.
Market next move Disruption (Bearish/Contrarian Outlook):
1. Bearish Divergence:
If RSI or MACD (not shown) is diverging (price making higher highs, indicator making lower highs), this could signal weakness in the uptrend.
2. Rising Wedge Pattern:
The channel might be interpreted as a rising wedge, which is often a bearish reversal pattern, especially if volume declines as price rises.
3. Strong Resistance Zone:
The red rectangular zone could act as major resistance, potentially causing a false breakout or rejection rather than continuation.
4. Volume Discrepancy:
Despite the bullish move, if volume is not increasing proportionally, it might indicate a lack of conviction.
5. Potential Breakdown Path:
Price breaks below the support zone (blue trendline).
Falls to test the previous consolidation zone around $3,300 or lower.
Bearish Scenario Path (Disrupted View):
Red arrow moves sharply down through support.
New target: $3,300 or lower (next visible support).
Market next move . False Breakout Risk (Bull Trap)
While the chart suggests an impending breakout, the market may be setting a bull trap:
Watch for a brief move above the consolidation zone that quickly reverses.
This could lure in buyers before a sharp downturn.
2. Volume Analysis Contradiction
Volume in the consolidation box seems to be decreasing.
A strong breakout typically needs a volume surge, which is currently absent.
Lack of commitment from buyers might suggest indecision or exhaustion.
3. Bearish Divergence Possibility
If you overlay an RSI or MACD indicator:
It might show bearish divergence (price making higher highs, indicator making lower highs).
This often precedes reversals.
4. Key Resistance Ahead
The area just above the consolidation box (around 3,320–3,340) could act as strong resistance based on historical price action.
Price might reject this zone rather than continue higher.
5. Fundamental Risks
Upcoming U.S. economic data (as hinted by the U.S. icon on the chart) may trigger unexpected volatility.
Hawkish Fed tone or strong dollar news could push gold down unexpectedly.
Market next move
Bearish Disruption to GBP/USD Analysis:
1. Support Weakness:
The price action within the red box shows multiple bearish candles, suggesting the zone is under pressure.
A break and close below this box could invalidate the bullish thesis.
2. Exhaustion Signals:
After a sharp rally, the market often consolidates or corrects. The current stall near 1.3400–1.3420 could indicate buying exhaustion.
The latest candle shows a strong bearish push into the support, hinting at potential for deeper decline.
3. Decreasing Volume:
Recent green candles had falling volume, which shows lack of conviction by buyers.
Meanwhile, red (bearish) candles show rising volume, signaling increased selling pressure.
4. Failed Breakout Setup:
If this bounce fails and price closes below 1.3380, this will form a false breakout or bull trap, triggering stop hunts and aggressive shorting.
5. Macroeconomic Headwinds:
GBP is sensitive to UK data and BoE policy. Any hawkish Fed or weak UK numbers may lead to a USD rebound, pushing GBP/USD lower.
Market next move
Bearish Disruption to the EUR/USD Analysis:
1. Strong Resistance Zone (Red Box):
Price is struggling to hold above the resistance area. Several candles have long upper wicks, signaling rejection and selling pressure.
This may form a double-top or even a bull trap.
2. Volume Anomaly:
The upward price move shows decreasing volume, which is a classic signal of weak momentum. Without increasing volume, breakouts often fail.
3. Overextended Rally:
The pair has already made a sharp move up from below 1.1300 to near 1.1340. This type of parabolic move can lead to a snapback correction.
If bulls cannot decisively break resistance soon, profit-taking may trigger a short-term retracement.
4. Bearish Divergence Potential:
If RSI or MACD indicators are available, watch for bearish divergence (price makes higher highs while indicators make lower highs). This would reinforce downside risk.
5. Fundamental Pressure:
If any upcoming U.S. economic data (like PMI, FOMC minutes, etc.) is strong, it could boost USD and push EUR/USD down from this resistance.
GOLD BUY NOW STRONG BULLISH NEXT MOVE1. Double Top Resistance
The chart identifies a "double top" near the current level. This is typically a strong bearish reversal pattern.
If price fails to convincingly break above this level (around 3,310–3,320), it may indicate a loss of bullish momentum.
2. Overextended Move
Recent candles show a steep rally (notably the 3.03 move), which may be overbought on lower timeframes (e.g., RSI likely >70).
Parabolic moves are often followed by sharp corrections.
3. Support Cluster Vulnerability
The red shaded support zones could act as liquidity traps. If price dips into those zones and fails to bounce, it may trigger sell-offs.
Especially the zone just below the current price — if broken — could accelerate downside toward the "Strong Support Area" around 3,270.
4. False Breakout Risk
Market next move Bearish Disruption Analysis:
1. Weak Breakout Confirmation:
Although price broke above the red consolidation zone, it quickly pulled back within the range, suggesting a false breakout or bull trap.
The current red candle closing back into the range hints at bullish exhaustion.
2. Volume Divergence:
Note the declining volume on the recent upward push compared to the initial breakout on the 20th.
Lower volume during a breakout typically signals lack of conviction, weakening the bullish case.
3. Resistance Cluster:
The price is stalling just above the 3306 level — possibly facing resistance from previous highs or round-number psychological resistance.
Bears may take control if price fails to hold above 3300.
4. Potential Bearish Scenario:
Price re-enters the consolidation range and breaks below it.
Target zones could be:
3,290 (local support from the range base)
3,270 (previous minor support)
Further down toward 3,250 if momentum builds.
Market next move 1. Weak Momentum Into Resistance
The candles near resistance are small-bodied and lack strong bullish volume.
Disruption: This signals buying exhaustion. Price could consolidate or reverse sharply, especially if buyers fail to defend this level.
---
2. Resistance Zone Saturation
The resistance zone (highlighted in red) has already been tested multiple times.
Disruption: This could either lead to a breakout or—more likely in a weak volume context—a liquidity trap and reversal, as market makers use the expectation of a breakout to trap long positions.
---
3. Potential Double Top Pattern
Look closely at the two peaks around the resistance zone. They resemble a developing double top.
Disruption: If price fails to break out convincingly and starts dropping, this double top may trigger a fall back to $105,000 or even lower.
---
4. Bearish Divergence Possibility
While not shown on this chart, in cases like this, it's common for momentum indicators (like RSI or MACD) to show bearish divergence.
Disruption: Even if price hits slightly higher highs, a divergence could signal that momentum is fading and a deeper pullback is incoming.
---
5. High Sell Volume on the Spike (May 19)
That long wick candle with high volume around May 19 suggests strong seller interest above $107K.
Disruption: Buyers could struggle again in this zone, especially if that volume spike was from whales distributing.
GBPCHF Breaks Rising Wedge – Reversal Targets 1.0940 and 1.0815GBPCHF has broken down from a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern break comes near the 50% retracement level, with price now trading below ascending trendline support. With fundamental headwinds weighing on the British pound and safe-haven demand supporting the Swiss franc, the setup favors a short bias targeting the 1.0940 and 1.0815 zones.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Rising wedge → broken to the downside
Breakout Confirmation: Price has closed below the wedge support (trendline)
Key Support Levels:
1.0940 → 38.2% fib + previous structure support
1.0815 → 23.6% fib retracement + horizontal support zone
1.0608 → Full wedge base (longer-term target)
Resistance / Invalidation:
1.1150 – a close back above this level invalidates the breakdown
Candle Behavior:
Bearish structure forming with lower highs
Clean engulfing candle closed below wedge
📉 Bias: Bearish (confirmed technical reversal)
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP)
UK CPI expected to rise (3.3% forecast), which may limit BoE cuts, but not bullish enough to support GBP
Political uncertainty resurfaces (Labour slipping in polls)
BoE speakers are split; no clear support from policy
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF)
Safe-haven flows rising on:
Global growth slowdown
Tensions between U.S.–Iran
Downgrade of U.S. debt → risk aversion favors CHF
SNB remains cautious, but CHF gains defensive strength in risk-off conditions
🎯 Trade Setup
Bias: Sell
Entry Zone: 1.1080–1.1100 (breakout confirmation)
Targets:
TP1: 1.0940
TP2: 1.0815
TP3: 1.0608 (extension target)
Stop Loss: Above 1.1150
⚠️ Risk Factors
CPI surprise tomorrow could cause GBP spikes — be cautious around the release
If equities rally hard or CHF weakens globally, price could retest the wedge structure before falling
BoE hawkish surprise could challenge short-term bearish bias
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF has broken out of a rising wedge — a classic bearish reversal signal. The technical break aligns with macro weakness in GBP and CHF strength in a risk-off environment. Short trades remain valid below 1.1150, targeting a drop to 1.0940 and 1.0815 in the coming sessions.
Market next move
1. Red Zone Retest Failure
Disruption: If the price breaks back below the red highlighted zone (around 3,265–3,270), it may indicate a false breakout.
Impact: This would invalidate the bullish continuation and could lead to a sharp decline toward 3,240 or even lower.
---
2. Low Volume on the Breakout
Disruption: The breakout rally appears strong, but if upcoming candles show declining volume, it may suggest weak momentum.
Impact: A drop in volume could precede a reversal or sideways consolidation instead of the projected move to 3,306.
---
3. Double Top or Bearish Rejection at 3,306
Disruption: The price could reach the 3,306 target and form a double top, leading to bearish rejection.
Impact: This could be the start of a downtrend or extended consolidation.
---
4. Overbought Conditions
Disruption: If momentum indicators like RSI or Stochastic (not shown on chart) are in overbought territory, this could suggest a pullback is likely before continuation.
Impact: May lead to a deeper retracement than expected.
---
5. Macroeconomic or News Catalyst
Disruption: Unforeseen macro events (e.g., interest rate announcements, geopolitical tension) could cause sudden shifts against the technical outlook.
Impact: Could override technical structure entirely.
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Market next move 1. Over-Reliance on Support Zone
The analysis heavily leans on the assumption that the support zone (marked with the purple "Support" label) will hold.
However, this support has already been tested multiple times, which weakens its strength.
A break below this zone could trigger significant stop-loss hunting, leading to a bearish breakdown instead of a bullish reversal.
2. Volume Analysis Suggests Weak Momentum
The recent bounce lacks strong volume. This suggests that buying interest is not convincing at this level.
Without volume confirmation, any bullish move is less likely to sustain.
3. Lower Highs Pattern
Despite small rallies, the chart is forming lower highs, which is typically a bearish signal.
This hints at seller dominance, and the yellow bullish projection might be overly optimistic.
4. Resistance Overhead
The price is approaching a short-term resistance zone (red box), which has rejected the price previously.
Without a clear breakout above that, the bullish case is speculative.
5. Fundamental Factors Unaccounted
The chart doesn’t account for macro factors like U.S. dollar strength, interest rates, or geopolitical influences that often affect gold.
If the dollar strengthens, gold may drop, breaking the support.
Market next move Bearish Disruption Analysis:
1. Range Weakness and Exhaustion Risk:
The price has been ranging within a tight zone, and repeated tests of the support line near 3,215–3,218 show weakening buyer pressure.
If bulls were strong, we might have already seen a breakout with momentum. Instead, there's sideways choppiness, suggesting indecision or exhaustion.
2. Lower Highs Forming:
Despite a flat support zone, price is forming lower highs, a bearish signal. Sellers are stepping in earlier on each bounce, tightening the range from the top.
3. Volume Depletion:
Volume is gradually dropping during this consolidation. If a breakout happens without a volume surge, it risks becoming a false breakout.
4. Liquidity Sweep Possibility:
Market makers might push price below the support zone (~3,215) to trigger stop-losses and accumulate orders before a potential real breakout. This would trap late buyers who enter early.
5. Bearish Scenario Path:
If price breaks below 3,215 and closes under that on decent volume, expect a move to the next demand zone near 3,200 or lower.
Downside target could be around 3,180–3,190, where the previous demand base formed on May 15.
Market next moveBearish Disruption Scenario:
1. False Breakout Trap:
If the price breaks above the rectangle but lacks strong volume or fails to sustain above resistance, it may turn into a bull trap.
This could lead to a sharp reversal and shake out long positions.
2. Volume Divergence:
Notice that volume is decreasing during the consolidation. Without a spike in volume on breakout, the move could lack conviction.
This weakens the bullish case.
3. Resistance Zone Overhead:
There's likely a resistance zone just above the rectangle (around 3,240–3,260), where selling pressure could resume.
Price may test the zone, reject it, and fall back inside or below the range.
4. Double Top Risk:
The price action on the 18th and current range-top could form a double-top pattern if rejected.
A drop below the lower bound of the rectangle (~3,210) would confirm the pattern, suggesting bearish continuation.
5. Macro or Fundamental Risks:
Any unexpected strong U.S. dollar movement or interest rate expectations could push gold lower, invalidating bullish technical setups.
Market next move
1. Bearish Rejection from Resistance
Disruption: The price has struggled to break above the 3,240–3,250 area multiple times. This could indicate strong resistance.
Implication: If the price fails again, we may see a rejection and a move down towards the 3,180–3,160 support range instead of a bullish breakout.
---
2. Volume Analysis Caution
Disruption: The volume during recent upward moves is not significantly higher than the downswings.
Implication: Weak buying volume might not support a strong breakout, suggesting a fakeout could occur.
---
3. False Breakout Possibility
Disruption: A possible fake breakout above the red box might lure in buyers before a reversal.
Implication: Watch for a "bull trap" where the price briefly breaks up and then reverses sharply downward.
---
4. Macro Events Ahead
Disruption: The timing (around May 20) could align with macroeconomic news (e.g., Fed minutes, CPI, etc.).
Implication: News can trigger volatility and negate technical expectations.
---
5. RSI or Momentum Indicators?
Disruption: Without checking RSI or other momentum indicators, the analysis might lack confirmation.
Implication: Overbought/oversold conditions could shift the bias unexpectedly.
Next move Disruption Analysis: Bearish Risk Perspective
1. Sideways Consolidation (Red Box Zone):
The price is consolidating in a tight range between roughly 32.20 and 32.40, showing indecision and potential for either a breakout or breakdown.
Repeated rejections near the top of this box can signal exhaustion of buying pressure.
2. Volume Observation:
There’s no strong volume surge indicating accumulation; volume appears mixed and doesn't strongly support a bullish breakout.
A potential fakeout risk exists if the price spikes above the consolidation range only to fall back in (bull trap).
3. Potential Bearish Breakdown:
If the price breaks below the red box, especially under 32.20, it could trigger stop-losses and initiate a short-term bearish trend.
First downside target: 32.00 psychological level, followed by 31.80 support from previous lows.
4. Wick Rejection on Top:
The recent candles inside the box show long upper wicks — signs of selling pressure at higher levels.
Next move Bearish Disruption Perspective:
1. Failure to Break Above Supply
Price is struggling near 32.40–32.50, a visible resistance area from prior swing highs.
Repeated rejections here can signal seller strength or profit-taking.
2. Exhaustion Patterns
The price is forming sideways consolidation (highlighted in red).
A failure to break upward from this box and a false breakout wick would suggest buyer exhaustion.
3. Bearish Breakdown Scenario
If price breaks below the red box support (~32.30), this range could flip into resistance.
A clean drop below 32.30 would likely open the path toward 32.00 and potentially 31.80.
4. Volume Spike on Red Candle
Volume on red bars (10.64K) suggests aggressive selling pressure creeping in.
Watch for confirmation if next candles close red with high volume.
Next target Bearish Disruption Points
1. False Breakout Risk
Price is hovering near the recent highs but hasn’t made a convincing higher high.
A fakeout above 32.42 followed by a sharp rejection could trap buyers and trigger a sell-off.
2. Exhaustion at Resistance
The current level (~32.33–32.42) was a previous distribution zone on May 13–14.
Low volume follow-through may indicate weak buying interest, increasing the odds of a reversal.
3. Bearish Divergence (Potential)
If RSI or MACD shows lower highs while price pushes up, that’s a bearish divergence—a common reversal signal.
(You’d need to check indicators for confirmation.)
4. Support Flip to Resistance
If the price breaks back below the red box (~32.25), the same zone could act as resistance, turning into a supply zone.
5. Volume Clue
Volume appears lower during the recent bullish attempts, hinting at buyer fatigue.
Higher volume on red candles would validate a bearish shift.
Silver next move Weak Demand Zone Bounce
The current price action shows only a minor bounce from the demand zone.
A lack of strong bullish candles or volume confirmation may indicate weak buying interest.
2. Lower High Structure
The chart appears to be forming lower highs, suggesting a possible downtrend continuation.
If price fails to break the recent swing high near 32.70, bears might gain control.
3. Volume Concern
Recent bullish candles have decreasing volume, while the latest red candle has higher volume—this could signal a bearish divergence.
4. Bearish Trap Possibility
The current consolidation above support might turn into a distribution zone, leading to a fake breakout downward.
Gold next move The price is currently at a prior resistance level (~3,229) which may act as a supply zone. The market has already failed to break above this level multiple times in the past, indicating strong selling pressure.
2. Volume Divergence
If we analyze the volume at the most recent peaks, there's a possibility of lower buying volume despite higher prices—this could signal weakening bullish momentum.
3. False Breakout Risk
The chart suggests a possible pullback to the red demand zone before continuation. However, if the price fakes out into the zone and fails to hold above ~3,210, this could trigger a deeper selloff.
4. Double Top Formation Risk
There appears to be a potential double top pattern around 3,250–3,260, which may signal a bearish reversal if neckline support (~3,210) is broken.
5. Macroeconomic Influence
Unless supported by strong fundamentals (e.g., dovish Fed signals, rising inflation), any bullish breakout might lack fuel to sustain a rally beyond resistance.
Disruptive Bearish Scenario:
Price breaks below the red demand zone (~3,210).
Retests it as resistance.
Targets the next major support zone near 3,175–3,180.
EURUSD Near Top Of Channel — Correction Imminent!!!EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is trading in the Resistance zone($1.1310-$1.1162) , near the upper line of the descending channel and the Monthly Pivot Point .
In terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has completed five main impulse waves , and with the break of the Uptrend lines , we should expect corrective waves . Most likely, EURUSD is completing microwave 4 , and we should expect the next decline and the formation of microwave 5 .
I expect EURUSD to fall to at least $1.1073 , and the next targets are marked on the chart.
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1330 , we should expect further gains.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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