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USOIL || Geopolitical Spike Hits Major Resistance - Watch $77.77🛢️ 📅 June 13, 2025 👤 By: MJTRADING 🔍 🧭 Fundamental Context – Risk Premium on the Rise: Crude oil surged sharply today following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory — a move that reawakens fears of broader Middle East escalation. Iran plays a crucial role in OPEC and controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz , through which ~20% of global oil passes. While Iran has not officially responded yet, markets are pricing in the potential for: * Military retaliation * Disruption of oil exports or maritime routes * Heightened volatility across global risk assets ======================================================= 📉 📊 Technical Structure – Tag of Key Resistance at $77.7: Price exploded upward, piercing the descending channel that's been intact since mid-2022. Today's daily wick tagged the $77.70 level, a major horizontal resistance and channel top. This zone has repeatedly acted as a pivot in both bullish and bearish phases. Volume confirmed the move – highest daily volume in months, suggesting institutional reaction. 💡 Trading Outlook: 🔼 Scenario A – Breakout & Close Above $77.7 = Bull Continuation If tomorrow closes firmly above $77.70: Target 1: $88.88 supply zone Target 2: $90.00 psychological resistance Setup: Conservative entries on retest of $75–77 area with tight invalidation 🔽 Scenario B – Failed Breakout → Fade Back Inside Channel If this was a headline-driven spike with no follow-through, bears may re-enter strongly A close below $75 could confirm bull trap Support zone to watch: $66.66 (mid-channel, EMA confluence) ⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor: Iran’s response (military, diplomatic, strategic) US/NATO reaction to potential escalation Strait of Hormuz disruption OPEC commentary or Saudi-led output adjustment Market sentiment unwind (profit-taking from overbought spike) 💬 Markets love emotion, but traders survive with structure. This is not the time to be reckless — size down, be responsive, and respect both breakouts and fakeouts. 📎 #CrudeOil #Geopolitics #OilSpike #WTI #MiddleEastTensions #Iran #IranIsrael #TechnicalAnalysis #MJTRADING
FX:USOILLong
by MJElahifx
3
USDCAD Hits Support as Fed-Hawkish & BoC Cuts! Big Bounce ComingUSDCAD ( OANDA:USDCAD ) is trading at the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and near the important Support line and Support lines . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that USDCAD has managed to complete 5 main down waves and we can expect more up waves . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys . I expect USDCAD to rise to at least 1.37860 CAD. Fundamental View: The Bank of Canada initiated its rate-cutting cycle , while the Federal Reserve remains firm with no immediate plans to ease. Strong NFP data on Friday reinforced USD ( TVC:DXY ) strength . Oil prices( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) may offer temporary support to CAD , but macro divergences clearly favor the dollar . Note: Stop Loss(SL)= 1.36110 CAD U.S Dollar/Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
12
Inverse H&S Breakout! EURGBP Eyes Resistance Zone Amid Eurozone EURGBP ( OANDA:EURGBP ) is moving between two Support zone(0.83870 GBP-0.83500 GBP) and Resistance zone(0.8511 GBP-0.8470 GBP) . In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , EURGBP has managed to break the Neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern . I expect EURGBP to rise to at least 0.84911 GBP and attack the Resistance zone(0.8511 GBP- 0.8470 GBP) . ----------------------------------------------------------- EURGBP Fundamental Analysis: 1. Eurozone (EUR) Overview : The Eurozone economy has shown moderate recovery signs after pandemic disruptions. Inflation remains a concern, but the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain or even tighten monetary policy gradually to combat inflation. Economic data such as GDP growth and industrial production are mixed but generally indicate slow growth. Political stability in the Eurozone is relatively steady compared to the UK. The ECB’s forward guidance leans towards cautious optimism, supporting EUR strength over time. 2. United Kingdom (GBP) Overview : The UK economy faces several challenges, including slower growth prospects compared to the Eurozone. Inflation has been high but the Bank of England (BoE) has been raising interest rates aggressively to control it. Political uncertainties related to Brexit aftermath, trade deals, and fiscal policies have created some volatility. Consumer confidence and retail sales have shown signs of weakness in recent months. Overall, the BoE’s hawkish stance is strong, but economic fundamentals are less robust compared to the Eurozone. 3. Comparative Factors Favoring EUR Long : The Eurozone's relatively better economic stability and growth prospects support EUR strength. UK economic challenges and political uncertainties weaken GBP. ECB’s more gradual tightening approach may prevent shocks, making EUR attractive. Brexit-related trade issues continue to pose risks for GBP. 4. Risks to Consider : Unexpected ECB dovish moves could weaken EUR. Positive UK economic surprises or faster-than-expected BoE tightening might strengthen GBP. External shocks like geopolitical tensions can affect risk sentiment, impacting both currencies. ----------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stop Loss(SL)= 0.84221 GBP Euro/British Pound Analyze (EURGBP), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
11
Market next move Bearish Disruption Analysis: 1. False Breakout Risk: The current price is consolidating in a tight range. The support area may fail to hold due to low volume and indecision (notice the decreasing volume in recent candles). 2. Lower High Formation: A potential lower high is forming compared to the peak from earlier on June 5. This could signal a trend reversal or weakening bullish momentum. 3. Volume Divergence: The bullish candles have lower volume than previous strong moves, indicating a lack of strong buying interest. 4. Support Breakdown Scenario: If price breaks below the marked support area (~3360), we could see: Drop toward the 3340 area (next visible support). Acceleration if stop-losses are triggered below the support zone.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
GBPUSD reaches resistance zone: Watching for potential reversalOANDA:GBPJPY has reached a pretty significant resistance level, that has been an obvious turning point in the past, with several strong reversals from the area. So naturally, I’m watching to see how price reacts here again. If we get confirmation of rejection (what I usually watch for: like a bearish engulfing candle, long upper wicks or signs of increased selling pressure), I’ll be looking for short setups from there. 🟥 My sell idea is based on the expectation that this resistance will hold. I would be targeting a move down toward the 192.000 level, which I feel is a realistic and clean target, especially if price respects this structure again. But if price breaks above and starts holding strong above the zone, then I’ll back off the bearish bias and reassess, and I’d consider the bearish idea invalidated, with potential for further upside 🚀 Just sharing how I see the chart right now, not financial advice 💕✨
Short
by TrendDiva
57
Market next move 🔍 Original Interpretation: Support Zone: The red rectangle suggests a support level between ~102,800 and ~103,300. Bullish Bias: The blue arrow anticipates a bounce from this zone, potentially forming a higher low before continuing upward. Bearish Bias: The red arrow marks a potential resistance, predicting rejection and a move lower if the bullish breakout fails. --- ⚠️ Disruptive Analysis: 1. False Support Breakout Risk: A false breakdown beneath the support zone could trigger panic selling before a rapid recovery (fakeout). Traders might place stop-losses just below the box — a perfect target for market makers before price reverses. 2. Volume Deception: Volume increased during the sell-off but did not show strong absorption by buyers (green volume wasn't dominant). This suggests sellers still dominate and a continuation lower could occur before any bounce. 3. Lower Highs Formation: The last few green candles failed to break the previous highs, indicating weaker buying strength. Price may form a lower high, hinting at a short-term bearish trend. 4. Macro Trend Consideration: If this is just a retracement within a larger downtrend, the bounce could be short-lived. Broader market sentiment or macro news could push BTC toward 100,000 support or lower.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next move Disruptive Bearish Scenarios: 1. Support Area Breakdown The recent strong bearish candle with high volume shows aggressive selling pressure. If the price fails to hold above the support area and closes below it, especially on high volume, it could invalidate the bullish recovery. > Bearish Alternative: Price breaks below 103,000, retests it as resistance (bearish flip), and continues down toward 101,000–100,000. --- 2. Lower High Trap The projected bounce could form a lower high below the 106,000 resistance, creating a classic bearish structure. > Disruption Path: After a minor recovery toward 104,500–105,000, sellers regain control, and BTC resumes the downtrend. --- 3. Fake Support Bounce The support area could create a fake-out bounce, tricking long traders before a sharper reversal. The move up may lack follow-through due to diminishing bullish volume.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next move Disruption Points: 1. Bullish Accumulation Underway The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing. > Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620. --- 2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap) The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction. > Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward. --- 3. Divergence Risk If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse. > Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend. --- 4. Fundamental Wildcard The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar. If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
1
Market next target 🧨 Disruption Points: 1. Bullish Accumulation Underway The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing. > Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620. --- 2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap) The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction. > Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward. --- 3. Divergence Risk If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse. > Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend. --- 4. Fundamental Wildcard The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar. If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next target 🧨 Disruption Points: 1. Overbought Condition / RSI Divergence Even though the price is surging (+3.30%), there could be an overbought condition forming. If RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) diverge, it might signal weakness in bullish momentum. > Disruptive idea: Price may fake the breakout (blue arrow) and then sharply reverse, trapping late buyers. --- 2. False Breakout Trap The red-box area could be a liquidity zone where smart money might induce a fake breakout before dumping. > Alternative path: Price breaks above temporarily (as in blue path), but then reverses violently back into the range, forming a “bull trap.” --- 3. Volume Anomaly The volume appears to be decreasing on recent bullish candles after the initial spike. This suggests that the uptrend may be losing strength, making the yellow arrow scenario less likely. > Contrary outlook: Lack of volume confirmation could mean a sideways consolidation or reversal is more probable. --- 4. News/Event Risk (Fundamental Disruption) The chart shows an upcoming economic event (U.S. flag icon), possibly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), interest rate news, or CPI. These events could cause extreme volatility and invalidate all technical patterns.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next move 🧨 Disruption Points: 1. Overbought Condition / RSI Divergence Even though the price is surging (+3.30%), there could be an overbought condition forming. If RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) diverge, it might signal weakness in bullish momentum. > Disruptive idea: Price may fake the breakout (blue arrow) and then sharply reverse, trapping late buyers. --- 2. False Breakout Trap The red-box area could be a liquidity zone where smart money might induce a fake breakout before dumping. > Alternative path: Price breaks above temporarily (as in blue path), but then reverses violently back into the range, forming a “bull trap.” --- 3. Volume Anomaly The volume appears to be decreasing on recent bullish candles after the initial spike. This suggests that the uptrend may be losing strength, making the yellow arrow scenario less likely. > Contrary outlook: Lack of volume confirmation could mean a sideways consolidation or reversal is more probable.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next move 🔍 Bearish Disruption Perspective 1. Supply Zone Rejection The red box marks a strong resistance zone. Current price action shows rejection at that level (long upper wicks). This signals that sellers are defending this zone, increasing the likelihood of a false breakout. 2. Exhaustion After Strong Rally The massive green candle just before the resistance may have exhausted short-term buying power. Without a clear consolidation or volume surge, the price could reverse or retrace to gather strength. 3. Volume Discrepancy Volume spikes with price often suggest conviction. However, this chart shows moderate volume on the test of resistance—not enough to confirm breakout strength. 4. Bearish Candlestick Pattern The small red candle following the green surge could be forming a bearish engulfing or rejection candle, depending on the close.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
1
Market next move 🔍 Disruptive Technical Perspective 1. Overextension After Rally The current sharp upward move may be overextended. Lack of consolidation suggests the rally may be unsustainable without a pullback to test support. 2. Volume Divergence While price is rising, the volume bar at the most recent candle is not increasing proportionally. This signals weakening momentum, which often precedes a reversal or consolidation. 3. Unconfirmed Breakout The chart doesn't clearly show a confirmed breakout above a significant resistance zone. This could indicate a potential fakeout rather than a true breakout. 4. Potential Double Top Formation Risk If price stalls near current levels and pulls back, a double top pattern might form—often a bearish reversal signal. A drop back below $3,380 could trigger heavy selling.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next move 🔍 Disruptive Counter-Analysis 1. False Breakout Risk The current breakout could be a bull trap. Price may break above the resistance level temporarily before reversing sharply. Volume Analysis: The volume isn't significantly higher at the breakout candle, which may suggest a lack of strong momentum or institutional participation. 2. Resistance Zone Ahead The 1.14500 to 1.15000 range is historically a supply zone, where sellers may aggressively enter the market. This makes any upside move vulnerable to a reversal near that zone. 3. Macroeconomic Risk A red-circled economic event icon appears on the chart (likely an ECB or Fed-related release). This adds uncertainty—news can invalidate technical patterns. If the event is bearish for the euro (e.g., weak data or dovish ECB comments), the pair could reverse sharply. 4. Overbought Short-Term A series of green candles without significant pullback suggests short-term overbought conditions. RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) may confirm this. A correction to the previous base is possible.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
USDJPY Tests Channel Support After ADP Shock — Rebound Ahead?In the last hour's candle after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Index was released, USDJPY ( FX:USDJPY ) started to fall, but considering the position of this pair, I think we can have a good Risk-To-Reward even if the Stop Loss (SL) is touched. USDJPY is trading near the lower line of the ascending channel and the Support zone(143.870 JPY-143.430 JPY) . From an Elliott Wave perspective , USDJPY appears to be completing a corrective pattern . I expect USDJPY to rise at least to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Note: Stop Loss = 143.220 JPY Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze (USDJPY), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
27
XAU/USD (Gold vs USD)📏 Trendlines: Red descending trendline = consistent lower highs → selling pressure increases. Horizontal red support line (~3349) = price tested multiple times, but no strong bounce. 📦 Chart Patterns: Multiple bear flag formations marked in green = typical continuation patterns in downtrends. Suggests repeated attempts to rally are being sold into. 🟣 Support & Resistance: Immediate resistance: Downtrend line (~3355–3360). Key support level: 3349 (horizontal red line). Breakdown target: 3332.685 (blue horizontal line) and further to ~3310 zone. 🧭 Price Projection: 🚨 Expect a potential pullback to the trendline (~3355), which may reject again. 📉 If 3349 support breaks, a strong drop to 3332 is likely. Final bearish target: ~3310 level, aligning with the magenta arrow. 📌 Conclusion: ⚠️ Bias: Bearish under 3355. 🧨 Watch for breakdown confirmation below 3349 to trigger short positions. 🕵️‍♂️ Be cautious of false breakouts; wait for candle close confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ZareeFxTradingAac
Stronger U.S. JOLTS Data Pressures EURUSD!!!EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) failed to break the Resistance zone($1.1487-$1.1424) and started to fall again , breaking the Support lines . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has managed to complete the main wave X of the Double Three Correction(WXY) structure . Just moments ago, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data was released. ------------------------------- Actual: 7.39M Forecast: 7.11M Previous: 7.19M The stronger-than-expected JOLTS figure at 7.39 million signals a resilient labor market. This reduces recession fears and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Bullish for the U.S. Dollar( TVC:DXY ) Bearish pressure could hit EURUSD, especially if it's approaching the key resistance zone. ------------------------------- I expect EURUSD to start to fall again after the pullback to the Support lines and to fall to the targets I have specified on the chart. Note: If EURUSD touches $1.14580(Stop Loss(SL)), we can expect a failure of the Resistance zone($1.1487-$1.1424). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
14
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – 1H ChartGold Spot (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – 1H Chart 📅 June 4th, 2025 📈 Analysis by mmozafari1357 We are currently observing a complex WXY corrective pattern forming within a well-defined bullish channel on the 1H timeframe. Wave W completed after a strong impulsive move from the lower support zone around $3,250. Wave X is expected to extend higher and reach the $3,450–$3,470 resistance zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the parallel channel and a historical supply area. Currently, price seems to be forming wave Y as a retracement, creating a higher low structure before the anticipated bullish continuation. 🟢 Bias: Bullish continuation expected toward the $3,450 zone. 🔵 Key Levels: Support: $3,320 – $3,335 Resistance: $3,420 – $3,470 This setup remains valid as long as price stays within the ascending channel and maintains higher lows. --- 🔖 Posted by: mmozafari1357 🧠 Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the structure guide you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mmozafari1357
2
Market next move Disruption of the Downtrend Analysis The chart currently suggests a bearish breakout with a downside target near 1.12900. Let’s challenge that: --- 🟩 Bullish Reversal Possibility 1. Support Zone Near 1.1370: Price has shown signs of stabilizing around the 1.1370 level. Multiple wicks below the candles suggest buyer interest at this level. 2. Low Volume on Recent Red Candles: A decreasing volume trend on recent red candles can indicate weak bearish momentum. Bulls may be waiting to enter on a breakout above the 1.1380–1.1390 zone. 3. Potential for Fakeout: The sharp expected drop might be a bear trap. If price breaks back above 1.1385 with strong volume, it could invalidate the bearish thesis. 4. RSI/Momentum Divergence (Assumed): If momentum indicators (not shown) display bullish divergence, this strengthens the case for a reversal
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next move ⚠️ Disruption of the Bullish Analysis: 1. Weak Support Zone The highlighted support area is not strongly tested (only a couple of candles touch it). Low volume around support may indicate lack of buying interest at that level. If price breaks below this support, the bullish setup becomes invalid. 2. Bearish Volume Spike There's a noticeable high volume red candle during the recent drop. This could imply strong selling pressure, not just profit-taking. Rising volume on red candles often precedes further downside. 3. Lower High Formation The price may create a lower high near the projected bounce zone. If that happens, the market structure would shift to bearish. A lower high and a break below support confirms a downtrend.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Gold_Free_Signals