EurCad AnalysisAs we see... our HTF Order block Successfully reacted.... and now we are moving to our extreme order which gives higher possibility to enter the trade....
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GOLD - The downtrend channel continues, so buy or sell now?World gold prices this morning continued to decline with spot gold down 8.8 USD to 1,968.7 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,973.5 USD/ounce, down 15.1 USD compared to yesterday morning's gold.
The strong recovery of the USD in the evening trading session of November 7 took away the appeal of gold for buyers holding other currencies.
Investors are currently waiting for a series of speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week, the most important of which is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may have more work ahead to control inflation.
According to analysts at the World Gold Council, although October was a historic month for the gold market as the precious metal saw record high closing prices for the month, more substances are needed. catalyst to create sustainable thrust in the market.
Experts note that geopolitical instability due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas has increased the demand for safe-haven speculation, but long-term investors are still reluctant to jump into the market due to the action. Weak prices in gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs). A sustainable rise for gold above $2,000 an ounce requires signs that political risks continue and bond yields and the dollar peak.
XAUUSD - Gold is still in a downtrend, selling strategyAs gold retraces, attention turns to support zones around 1,953 to 1,947 and key moving averages, while investors watch for signs of recovery.
Gold confirmed a breakdown from its small rising trend channel today as it fell through the lower trendline of the pattern and yesterday’s low of 1,977. Weakness was further confirmed on a drop below last Wednesday’s minor swing low of 1,970. Support for the day was seen at 1,957, leading to a bounce to test resistance around the 1,970 level. Given the characteristics of the breakdown it seems likely that a deeper retracement is in the works before gold is ready to resume its ascent.
For the upside, given today’s price action it is looking like gold might continue to retrace or consolidate for the remainder of this week. We are already heading into mid-week and the retracement only got confirmed today with the rising channel breakdown. As it stands now, an advance above today’s high is short-term bullish with strength confirmed on a daily close above the high. And then further still above the two-day high of 1,993.
USDCHF: 07/11/2023: Looks Bearish
Well, as you can see, the price dropped after sweeping the liquidity and creating a valid order block.
On the other hand, the price broke the previous low and shifted the market structure so now we searching for sell.
There is a breaker block that the price entered into, if the price can break this breaker block we can expect to move higher to the bearish order block, and then with LTF confirmation, we can execute the sell position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓07/11/2023
🔎 DYOR
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Gold continues to fall deeply, long-term sell entry, target 1955World gold prices decreased this morning with spot gold down 13.5 USD to 1,977.5 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,988.6 USD/ounce, down 10.6 USD compared to yesterday morning's gold.
During the first trading session of the week, safe-haven metals came under pressure as risk appetite among investors and traders increased. According to experts, weak safe-haven demand combined with interest rate expectations are factors holding back gold. Since the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out, safe-haven buying has helped gold gain 7%. However, according to Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff, risk appetite is improving and there are no major unexpected developments from the Israel-Hammas conflict that is gaining its safe-haven appeal for investors. of gold.
Unusually high central bank buying may help explain why gold prices have remained resilient despite downward pressure from the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields so far this year.
XAUUSD - Gold is decreasing, should I buy or sell gold now?Last week, gold fluctuated with a narrow range and regularly tested the psychological barrier of 2,000 USD/ounce. However, the metal still failed to hold this level as it was caught between conflicting factors between interest rate expectations and geopolitical concerns.
Among Wall Street analysts participating in the survey, 60% expect gold prices to move higher this week. 64% of retail investors participating in online polls have the same opinion.
Forecasting this week's gold price trend, Kitco News' weekly gold survey shows that analysts and retail investors are optimistic about gold for the week ending November 10. Experts expect the price to break out this week even though there is not much supporting information.
Adam Button, currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that Friday's weak nonfarm payrolls report is a sign that the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is over. momentum and the fact that gold remains near $2,000 an ounce even as the safe-haven push is weakening.
NZDCAD BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDCAD
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Gold Prices Navigate Uncertainty Dollar Rates and GeopoliticsGold prices, represented as XAU/USD, started the new week on a weaker note, extending the decline that began on Friday from the $2,004 level, which marked a multi-day high. This initial rise was in response to softer jobs data from the United States (US). A slight increase in US Treasury bond yields helped alleviate some of the bearish pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and had an impact on the precious metal. Additionally, a generally positive tone in the equity markets pushed the safe-haven commodity below the $1,985 level during the Asian trading session.
However, it's important to note that there are growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep things unchanged in December and may not raise interest rates any further, which could limit the upside potential for the USD. This, in turn, might offer some support to gold, which is considered a non-yielding asset. Moreover, the ongoing risk of an escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict is another factor that may prevent a significant decline in XAU/USD. Therefore, it might be wise to wait for strong sustained selling pressure before considering a substantial correction from the year-to-date peak reached on October 27.
The US Dollar is making a modest recovery from a six-week low it hit on Friday, thanks to a decent increase in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, is contributing to the downward pressure on gold. However, the prevailing market sentiment is that the Federal Reserve won't raise rates again, especially given the softer US macroeconomic data released on Friday. For instance, the non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed that the US added 150,000 jobs in October, falling short of the estimated 180,000 and revised down from the originally reported 336,000 for the previous month. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also dropped to a five-month low of 51.8 in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its current stance at the December policy meeting.
On the geopolitical front, there's ongoing tension in the Israel-Hamas conflict, with Israel rejecting calls for a ceasefire and intensifying military operations against Hamas in Gaza. This situation continues to influence the dynamics of gold prices.
From a technical perspective, any further decline in gold prices may find support around the $1,980 level, followed by the previous week's high near $1,970. If there's a continued downward trend, the price of gold may face additional pressure, potentially dropping towards the $1,964 area, with the next significant support in the $1,954-1,953 range.
Conversely, if gold prices rebound, the $2,000 mark could serve as an immediate resistance level, followed by the Friday swing high around $2,004, and the year-to-date peak near $2,009. If gold manages to break through this resistance, it could potentially head towards the $2,022 resistance zone.
GBPJPY BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity GBPJPY
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GOLD - After the nonfarm news, will gold rise again?On the world gold market, the spot gold price at yesterday's session in the US increased by 7.1 USD to 1,992.2 USD/ounce. In the Asian session this morning, gold price reversed and dropped to 1,987.1 USD/ounce.
Gold should have exceeded $2,000 but that did not happen. So I think that will cause gold to lose a little bit of momentum.
Gold has surged due to inflation, Middle East geopolitics and its inverse correlation with interest rates. But then interest rates have come down significantly because inflation is starting to come down a bit. Additionally, the stock market is starting to move higher, so flows into precious metals may be dampened.
GOLD - Gold selling strategyGold price on Kitco closed last week's trading session at 1,992 USD/ounce.
Investors' worries about the Israel-Hamas conflict still exist, but that cannot help gold prices surpass the threshold of 2,000 USD/ounce. It is because the gold price cannot surpass this important threshold that has caused market psychology to become cautious.
Some analysts believe that gold prices are being hindered by the price level of 2,000 USD/ounce. If gold prices are consolidated in the near future, the precious metal price may soar to a new all-time high.
Commodity analysts say that geopolitical factors are having a major impact on gold and that as concerns subside, the precious metal's safe-haven appeal will be reduced.
According to Tastylive.com expert Christopher Vecchio, safe haven purchasing power thanks to the geopolitical crisis is being depleted. While geopolitical conflict can provide trading impetus for gold, it does not have a long-term effect.
Gold trading strategy at the beginning of the week November 6Many experts predict that the fall in gold prices is due to profit-taking pressure when last week the precious metal increased by 5%. Two weeks ago, the US and European economies released economic growth reports, in which GDP growth in the US increased more than twice the forecast.
As a result, US Government bond yields have increased sharply. The 10-year US Government bond yield at 6:40 a.m. this morning increased sharply by 0.79% to 4.593%/year. The Dollar-Index measuring the strength of the USD in a basket of 6 major currencies also increased 0.06% to 105,080 points at the same time.
Along with the positive economic reports published in the US and Europe two weeks ago, it is forecast that retail sales in the US will increase sharply in the last two months of the year when a series of events such as Black Friday and Christmas are held. , welcoming the new year takes place. To welcome the above events, businesses will organize discounts and promotions to attract customers to shop.
This will positively impact production and business activities, promoting economic growth. Experts say that the US economy will continue to recover strongly in the last months of the year, thereby putting pressure on gold prices.
Meanwhile, the factor supporting gold is that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are weakening as countries and United Nations organizations are finding ways to get relevant parties to implement a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
XAUUSD - Trading strategy before Nonfarm newsWorld gold prices this morning were stable with spot gold increasing by 2.6 USD to 1,985.1 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,993.7 USD/ounce, up 6.2 USD from yesterday morning.
World gold is relatively stable although the labor market shows signs of decline. A recent report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of US workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time increased more than expected. Specifically, the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits increased to 217,000 in the week ending October 28, an increase of 5,000 applications compared to the previous week's adjusted level of 210,000. Economists forecast unemployment claims will stay around 210,000.
According to experts, gold does not react much to weak employment data because the market is still paying attention to the recent policy decisions and stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said that bullion prices need to more or less consolidate a bit before continuing to rise as the long-term view remains positive.
As analysts expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady on Wednesday, as policymakers work to determine whether financial conditions are tight enough to keep inflation in check. . According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assessing an 80% chance that the Fed will pause interest rate hikes in December.
The fall has not stopped as the Fed prioritizes reducing inflatiOn January 11, the US policy-making basis, the Fed, was completed in early November. This agency decided to maintain the USD operating interest rate at a 22-year high of 5.25%. ,5 years.
This basis was put in place to determine the likelihood of a report on the US chief economist. Specifically, the Fed said economic activity increased sharply in the third quarter of 2023, with a likely increase of 4.9%, expanding with certainty.
The job market is stable and positive when the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 336,000 jobs, double the forecast level of 170,000 jobs. Every American has 1.5 job openings. This is consistent with the US economy accepting high interest rates but still growing well.
The Fed's announcement this time, in addition to keeping interest rates high for a long time, also contained a message of financial tightening. Specifically, the Fed said "finance and credit are in a tight state". This can be understood that the Fed and the US's basic strategies not only use monetary policy but still have the main fundamental economic tool at the present time to ensure safety.
Gold Price Stays Below 2000 Amid Dollar Rate Hike UncertaintyGold price experienced significant volatility on Wednesday as they initially moved closer to the $2,000 threshold ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcements. This surge was accompanied by the US Dollar's hesitant recovery, coupled with subdued US Treasury bond yields and a mixed market sentiment. However, there was a reversal in gold prices as they briefly dipped to around $1,970 immediately following the Fed's widely anticipated decision to keep the key policy rate within the existing range of 5.25%-5.50%.
The pivotal moment came during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and his responses to questions. Powell's comments had a substantial impact, causing a sharp decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields and triggering a strong recovery in the price of gold. While Powell did not entirely rule out the possibility of another interest rate hike, the markets interpreted his words as less hawkish than expected. He acknowledged factors like tighter financial conditions, a robust job market, a resilient economy, and elevated inflation levels.
The drop in US Treasury bond yields was also influenced by a quarterly Treasury announcement, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of its longer-dated auctions. The increase in 10-year Treasury bond auctions was $2 billion, falling short of the market's $3 billion expectations. This led to a decline of over 20 basis points (bps) in the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield, which reached its lowest point in over two weeks at 4.7089%.
Furthermore, the US Dollar faced headwinds due to mixed economic data. The US ADP private sector payrolls for October showed an increase of 113,000, below the estimated 130,000. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October dropped to 46.7, falling short of the expected 49.0. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report revealed that the number of job openings on the last business day of September slightly rose to 9.55 million, up from a revised 9.50 million in August and surpassing the forecast of 9.25 million.
As for Thursday's trading, the price of gold is building upon its previous recovery. Investors are carefully considering the future path of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for rate hikes in December and January being scaled back. Some market participants are even beginning to price in the possibility of Fed rate cuts as early as June next year. The ongoing global stock market rally led by the Fed's policies is expected to continue weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar. This trend persists as traders shift their focus away from events such as the Hamas-Israel conflict in anticipation of Friday's release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data.
In addition to these factors, gold traders are also keeping a close eye on the monetary policy decision of the Bank of England (BoE), scheduled for later in the day. The key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting. A dovish stance from the BoE is likely to boost stocks further while exerting downward pressure on the Pound Sterling, which, in turn, could alleviate some of the stress on the US Dollar. Nevertheless, the price of gold continues to hold upside potential, supported by its daily technical setup.
GOLD - Gold trading strategyMany experts predict that the US economy may fall into recession this year due to the rapid pace of interest rate increases. However, the world's largest economy is surprisingly strong.
In its statement, the Fed emphasized that the US economy was still growing strongly in the third quarter, the unemployment rate was low and the banking system was resilient. This has strengthened the possibility that the US will achieve a "soft landing" as the Fed is curbing inflation without harming the economy.
Although the Fed left interest rates unchanged after its monetary policy meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was unclear whether the committee was done raising rates. The world's most powerful central bank president also added that the committee remains focused on bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
Some experts assess that although the Fed maintains its tightening trend, that stance is not "hawkish" enough to worry the gold market as prices keep high levels below 2,000 USD/ounce.
Although the Fed is still pursuing a "hawkish" policy, it is not enough to spook the market, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
This expert further noted that concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict may have more impact on gold than the Fed's monetary policies.
