Forexsignal
XAUUSD - 4H Breakout and Retest Setup🟡🟡🟡
🕒 June 17, 2025
Bias: Medium-Term Bullish
Structure: Breakout → Retest → Continuation
Context: Trendline break + confluence with EMA + prior resistance turned support
🔍 Market Structure Insight:
Major descending trendline broken with strong impulsive momentum.
Pullback held at the intersection of:
Broken trendline retest
EMA 60 dynamic support
Bullish structure of HL-HH (Higher Low / Higher High)
Strong bullish candle at support
✅ Trade Plan – Buy Stop Setup
Entry (Buy Stop): 3402
SL: 3373 (below the pullback structure + EMAs)
TP1: 3430 (local resistance area)
TP2: 3470 (measured move from previous leg height)
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
BTC market update 19 6 ,2025The chart you've shared is a 1-hour BTC/USD (Bitcoin to USD) chart from Bitstamp, and it illustrates several technical patterns and a possible bearish setup:
Key Observations:
1. Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish):
From June 13–17, a rising wedge pattern formed (higher highs, higher lows, converging trendlines).
This pattern broke down sharply around June 17, which typically signals bearish momentum.
2. Bear Flag/Range Consolidation:
After the drop, BTC entered a sideways consolidation (highlighted in a red box), forming a rectangular range between ~104,950 resistance and ~102,830 support.
This could be interpreted as a bear flag or a distribution phase, suggesting continuation of the prior downtrend.
3. Bearish Projection:
The blue zig-zag line with the downward arrow suggests the analyst expects a break below the 102,830 support.
If this happens, further downside is likely. The measured move target could be projected from the height of the range (~2,100 points) below the breakdown point.
Summary:
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Key Support: 102,830
Key Resistance: 104,950
Next Move: Breakdown below 102,830 could lead to a drop toward ~100,700 or lower, if the bear flag confirms.
Would you like a trading idea or stop-loss/take-profit suggestions based on this pattern?
CHF/JPY Approaching the Danger Zone🧠 CHF/JPY Daily Chart
🗓️ June 18, 2025
Theme: "Approaching the Danger Zone – Will It Break or Bounce?"
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (near resistance)
Setup: Rising wedge into multi-year resistance zone
🔍 Market Structure Analysis:
The CHF/JPY has been riding a clean bullish wave since early 2025, but the pair now faces its most critical battle zone — the 179.50–180.00 multi-year resistance block, which previously marked a sharp reversal point.
The recent price action shows a rising wedge structure, which is often a bearish reversal pattern, especially when appearing near significant resistance.
🧬 Confluences in Play:
✅ Rising Wedge: Tightening structure indicates exhaustion of bullish momentum.
✅ Major Supply Zone: Price is approaching a high-likelihood reaction zone (180.00), where sellers aggressively took over in the past.
✅ Bearish Divergence Watch: (Not shown but likely developing on RSI or MACD)
✅ EMA Clustering: 15 & 60 EMAs rising, suggesting short-term momentum, but also acting as dynamic support if price breaks lower.
🔁 Scenario-Based Trade Plan:
🟥 Bearish Rejection Setup:
Entry: If price prints a strong bearish engulfing or pin bar near 179.50–180.00
SL: Above 180.20 (liquidity sweep buffer)
TP1: 174.50 (wedge base)
TP2: 172.00 (previous structure support)
TP3: 165.00 (macro demand zone)
R:R Potential: 3–5+
🟩 Breakout Continuation (Contingency Plan):
Buy Stop above 180.50 on strong close + retest
Targeting 184.00+ (measured move from wedge height)
🎯 Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 179.50–180.00
Trendline Support: 174.00
High-Volume Node: 172.00
Major Demand: 165.00–166.00 (long-term)
⚠️ Risks & Considerations:
JPY volatility due to BoJ surprises
CHF is sensitive to risk sentiment → geopolitical/macro shifts can rapidly flip bias
Wedge can fakeout before true move — confirm with volume + daily close
🧵 Summary Thought:
"Price is climbing a narrowing staircase into a wall. Will it punch through or trip on fatigue? Either way — the move from here is likely to be decisive. This is not the time to blink."
Share your Idea please...
#CHFJPY #MJTrading #Chart #Analysis #CHF #JPY
EURUSD Long Setup – Bullish Rejection from Demand ZoneEURUSD remains supported by strong eurozone fundamentals and broad USD softness. The pair has retraced into a key demand zone around 1.1490 and is showing signs of bullish rejection. With the Fed likely to pause further rate hikes and the ECB maintaining a steady tone, the bias favors further upside toward recent highs.
⚠️ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran conflict) have introduced mild safe haven demand, but so far the USD has underperformed versus the euro, suggesting EUR remains relatively insulated.
Watch for confirmation and entries within the blue demand box.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price retraced to a well-defined 1H demand zone between 1.1490–1.1500.
Setup: Anticipating a bounce from the demand zone targeting the recent high near 1.1620–1.1630.
Entry Zone: 1.1490–1.1500 (bullish reaction area)
Target: 1.1620–1.1630 (previous supply zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1439 (recent swing low)
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5
🧠 Fundamental Context (as of June 16):
EUR Bias: Bullish – ECB has paused cuts; euro is resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.
USD Bias: Bearish – Fed is on pause; soft inflation data and geopolitical risks weigh on dollar strength.
Key Drivers:
Fed dovish tone (FOMC pause, lower CPI)
Strong EU resilience despite global tensions
CHF and JPY attracting safe haven flows over USD
📅 Key Events to Watch:
US Core PCE (next major inflation readout)
FOMC commentary and Fed speakers
Eurozone CPI and sentiment data
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
GBPCHF Breaks Rising Wedge – Reversal Targets 1.0940 and 1.0815GBPCHF has broken down from a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern break comes near the 50% retracement level, with price now trading below ascending trendline support. With fundamental headwinds weighing on the British pound and safe-haven demand supporting the Swiss franc, the setup favors a short bias targeting the 1.0940 and 1.0815 zones.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Rising wedge → broken to the downside
Breakout Confirmation: Price has closed below the wedge support (trendline)
Key Support Levels:
1.0940 → 38.2% fib + previous structure support
1.0815 → 23.6% fib retracement + horizontal support zone
1.0608 → Full wedge base (longer-term target)
Resistance / Invalidation:
1.1150 – a close back above this level invalidates the breakdown
Candle Behavior:
Bearish structure forming with lower highs
Clean engulfing candle closed below wedge
📉 Bias: Bearish (confirmed technical reversal)
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP)
UK CPI expected to rise (3.3% forecast), which may limit BoE cuts, but not bullish enough to support GBP
Political uncertainty resurfaces (Labour slipping in polls)
BoE speakers are split; no clear support from policy
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF)
Safe-haven flows rising on:
Global growth slowdown
Tensions between U.S.–Iran
Downgrade of U.S. debt → risk aversion favors CHF
SNB remains cautious, but CHF gains defensive strength in risk-off conditions
🎯 Trade Setup
Bias: Sell
Entry Zone: 1.1080–1.1100 (breakout confirmation)
Targets:
TP1: 1.0940
TP2: 1.0815
TP3: 1.0608 (extension target)
Stop Loss: Above 1.1150
⚠️ Risk Factors
CPI surprise tomorrow could cause GBP spikes — be cautious around the release
If equities rally hard or CHF weakens globally, price could retest the wedge structure before falling
BoE hawkish surprise could challenge short-term bearish bias
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF has broken out of a rising wedge — a classic bearish reversal signal. The technical break aligns with macro weakness in GBP and CHF strength in a risk-off environment. Short trades remain valid below 1.1150, targeting a drop to 1.0940 and 1.0815 in the coming sessions.
GBPNZD Important Resistance and SupportThe pair is heading towards the resistance at 2.363, which has not been tested by the sellers, so there are still many sellers waiting in this area. The uptrend could extend to 2.276, the highest peak of last month.
If the resistance at 2.263 cannot be broken, then 2.238 is the sideway border of the pair, which helps support the price increase. When it breaks out, it confirms a reversal to the downtrend.
The price reaction zone can be noted around 2.229 before touching the strong support zone at 2.220.
Support: 2.238, 2.229, 2.220
Resistance: 2.263, 2.276
AUD/USD at Critical Resistance — Bearish Outlook Below 0.65381. Major Resistance Zone: 0.65380
Price is currently testing a strong horizontal resistance level at 0.65380, a level that has been tested multiple times (as shown by the pink circles).
This level has acted as a historical turning point, which increases its significance.
2. Price Structure: Lower Highs and Equal Highs
The chart reveals a potential double top or distribution pattern, forming under the 0.65380 resistance.
This suggests weakening bullish momentum and increases the probability of a bearish reversal.
3. Projected Bearish Path (White Dotted Lines):
If price fails to break above 0.65380 decisively, the expected move is a stepwise decline.
The projected path targets several support levels:
0.65003
0.64647
0.64213
0.63957
Final target: 0.63627, a key support from early May.
4. Support & Resistance Zones:
Resistance Levels:
0.65380 (Major)
0.65003
Support Levels (Sequential Targets):
0.64647
0.64213
0.63957
0.63627
5. Confluence with Fundamentals:
U.S. economic events (highlighted at the bottom with calendar icons) may act as volatility triggers, potentially accelerating this move.
✅ Summary & Trading Implications:
Bias: Bearish below 0.65380
Trade Idea: Watch for rejection at resistance or break below 0.65003 for confirmation.
Bearish Targets: Gradual move toward 0.63627 with key pauses at intermediate support levels.
Invalidation: Daily close above 0.65380 would negate the bearish setup and open potential for new highs.
USOIL || Geopolitical Spike Hits Major Resistance - Watch $77.77🛢️
📅 June 13, 2025
👤 By: MJTRADING
🔍 🧭 Fundamental Context – Risk Premium on the Rise:
Crude oil surged sharply today following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory — a move that reawakens fears of broader Middle East escalation. Iran plays a crucial role in OPEC and controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz , through which ~20% of global oil passes.
While Iran has not officially responded yet, markets are pricing in the potential for:
* Military retaliation
* Disruption of oil exports or maritime routes
* Heightened volatility across global risk assets
=======================================================
📉 📊 Technical Structure – Tag of Key Resistance at $77.7:
Price exploded upward, piercing the descending channel that's been intact since mid-2022.
Today's daily wick tagged the $77.70 level, a major horizontal resistance and channel top.
This zone has repeatedly acted as a pivot in both bullish and bearish phases.
Volume confirmed the move – highest daily volume in months, suggesting institutional reaction.
💡 Trading Outlook:
🔼 Scenario A – Breakout & Close Above $77.7 = Bull Continuation
If tomorrow closes firmly above $77.70:
Target 1: $88.88 supply zone
Target 2: $90.00 psychological resistance
Setup: Conservative entries on retest of $75–77 area with tight invalidation
🔽 Scenario B – Failed Breakout → Fade Back Inside Channel
If this was a headline-driven spike with no follow-through, bears may re-enter strongly
A close below $75 could confirm bull trap
Support zone to watch: $66.66 (mid-channel, EMA confluence)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor:
Iran’s response (military, diplomatic, strategic)
US/NATO reaction to potential escalation
Strait of Hormuz disruption
OPEC commentary or Saudi-led output adjustment
Market sentiment unwind (profit-taking from overbought spike)
💬 Markets love emotion, but traders survive with structure. This is not the time to be reckless — size down, be responsive, and respect both breakouts and fakeouts.
📎 #CrudeOil #Geopolitics #OilSpike #WTI #MiddleEastTensions #Iran #IranIsrael #TechnicalAnalysis #MJTRADING
USDCAD Hits Support as Fed-Hawkish & BoC Cuts! Big Bounce ComingUSDCAD ( OANDA:USDCAD ) is trading at the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and near the important Support line and Support lines .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that USDCAD has managed to complete 5 main down waves and we can expect more up waves .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect USDCAD to rise to at least 1.37860 CAD.
Fundamental View:
The Bank of Canada initiated its rate-cutting cycle , while the Federal Reserve remains firm with no immediate plans to ease.
Strong NFP data on Friday reinforced USD ( TVC:DXY ) strength .
Oil prices( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) may offer temporary support to CAD , but macro divergences clearly favor the dollar .
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= 1.36110 CAD
U.S Dollar/Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Inverse H&S Breakout! EURGBP Eyes Resistance Zone Amid Eurozone EURGBP ( OANDA:EURGBP ) is moving between two Support zone(0.83870 GBP-0.83500 GBP) and Resistance zone(0.8511 GBP-0.8470 GBP) .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , EURGBP has managed to break the Neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern .
I expect EURGBP to rise to at least 0.84911 GBP and attack the Resistance zone(0.8511 GBP- 0.8470 GBP) .
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EURGBP Fundamental Analysis:
1. Eurozone (EUR) Overview :
The Eurozone economy has shown moderate recovery signs after pandemic disruptions.
Inflation remains a concern, but the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain or even tighten monetary policy gradually to combat inflation.
Economic data such as GDP growth and industrial production are mixed but generally indicate slow growth.
Political stability in the Eurozone is relatively steady compared to the UK.
The ECB’s forward guidance leans towards cautious optimism, supporting EUR strength over time.
2. United Kingdom (GBP) Overview :
The UK economy faces several challenges, including slower growth prospects compared to the Eurozone.
Inflation has been high but the Bank of England (BoE) has been raising interest rates aggressively to control it.
Political uncertainties related to Brexit aftermath, trade deals, and fiscal policies have created some volatility.
Consumer confidence and retail sales have shown signs of weakness in recent months.
Overall, the BoE’s hawkish stance is strong, but economic fundamentals are less robust compared to the Eurozone.
3. Comparative Factors Favoring EUR Long :
The Eurozone's relatively better economic stability and growth prospects support EUR strength.
UK economic challenges and political uncertainties weaken GBP.
ECB’s more gradual tightening approach may prevent shocks, making EUR attractive.
Brexit-related trade issues continue to pose risks for GBP.
4. Risks to Consider :
Unexpected ECB dovish moves could weaken EUR.
Positive UK economic surprises or faster-than-expected BoE tightening might strengthen GBP.
External shocks like geopolitical tensions can affect risk sentiment, impacting both currencies.
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Note: Stop Loss(SL)= 0.84221 GBP
Euro/British Pound Analyze (EURGBP), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
On the 4-hour timeframe, GBPUSD has broken below its ascending trendline and is now trading below a key resistance zone.
We expect the pair to consolidate briefly within this area, and then move lower toward the specified support level.
As long as the price remains below the resistance and the broken trendline, the bearish bias remains valid.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
EURGBP forex rallying as expected off weekly demand levelWeekly uptrend. Weekly demand imbalance at 0.83 is still in control and trying to play out as expected. Any swing long positions should be managed. I hope you could take advantage of long positions using the smaller timeframes for those intraday and short-term forex traders.
Market next move Bearish Disruption Analysis:
1. False Breakout Risk:
The current price is consolidating in a tight range.
The support area may fail to hold due to low volume and indecision (notice the decreasing volume in recent candles).
2. Lower High Formation:
A potential lower high is forming compared to the peak from earlier on June 5.
This could signal a trend reversal or weakening bullish momentum.
3. Volume Divergence:
The bullish candles have lower volume than previous strong moves, indicating a lack of strong buying interest.
4. Support Breakdown Scenario:
If price breaks below the marked support area (~3360), we could see:
Drop toward the 3340 area (next visible support).
Acceleration if stop-losses are triggered below the support zone.