GBPUSD SWING: +1000 Pips Later, GU Is Still Climbing in Stealth 🧠 Last Idea Recap from Early Feb 2025:
- We previously caught a multi-leg upside off the bottom channel (~1.2550) with over 350 pips in structured recovery.
- Price is now grinding within upper consolidation, testing the 1.3315–1.3350 supply shelf.
Note: Check out the previous Idea from related publications to verify.
Update: GBPUSD has now delivered over 1000+ pips in swing structure from the bottom breakout (1.2550s), with even more gains harvested through intra-day and scalp setups inside this multi-week ascending channel.
Recent UK macro strength (GDP beat across MoM, QoQ, YoY) injected new life into price action, adding fundamental confluence to the clean bullish technicals already building. Price continues to respect the rising structure with higher lows and controlled consolidation near a breakout shelf at 1.3350–1.3375.
🔍 Current Structure :
- Bullish flag forming near key supply zone
- No sign of distribution or exhaustion
- Channel still intact, buyers defending every dip
Next Leg:
- Break and hold above 1.3375 could fuel another 100–150 pip run toward 1.3470 and eventually 1.3550+
- Short-term traders: watch for a stop-hunt sweep before the real move
Entry Notes:
- Use lower timeframes (4H/1H) for confirmation wicks, volume spikes, or engulfing candles
- Avoid getting trapped on the first breakout candle—look for retest/reclaim plays
Whether you’re swinging or scalping, this pair has remained one of the cleanest GBP structures in months, and this ride might not be over yet.
Forexsignal
DXY (US Dollar): Bullish Order FlowA bullish order block has been identified on the H1 timeframe, situated below the Asian session range. With the US Dollar maintaining steady strength, there is potential for price to retrace into this order block for mitigation. Should this occur, a continuation of the bullish trend is anticipated, with price likely to rally and break above the recent structural high.
GBPCHF Breakout Eyes 1.1190–1.1290 as Bullish Momentum BuildsGBP/CHF has broken out of a descending wedge formation on the 4H chart, indicating a bullish shift in momentum. This move is supported by a recovering GBP, driven by better-than-expected UK GDP data and BoE easing expectations already priced in. Meanwhile, CHF is softening on safe-haven unwinding and a less aggressive SNB tone. Technicals point to a clean breakout with immediate upside targets at 1.1116 and 1.1190, with potential extension toward 1.1290.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Descending wedge breakout on the 4H chart — a bullish continuation pattern.
Breakout Confirmation: Price is now trading above wedge resistance (~1.1045), showing follow-through buying.
Support zone: 1.1000–1.1040 (retest area if price pulls back)
Fibonacci Levels:
1.1116 → 50% Fib retracement + prior resistance
1.1190 → 61.8% Fib and historical reaction zone
1.1290 → 78.6% retracement and next key resistance
📈 Bullish Signals:
EUR/GBP overlay shows inverse correlation supporting GBP strength
Higher lows forming since April → structure is rising
Clean breakout with space to run before major resistance hits
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
UK Q1 GDP: +0.6% q/q — solid beat vs expectations
BoE Positioning: Rate cut expected in H2 2025, but not imminent; GBP supported in the meantime
Trade Conditions: Signs of recovery, but BoE not overly dovish yet
Market Tone: GBP favored short-term due to economic resilience
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF):
SNB Stance: Recent tone shift toward caution amid deflation signals
Safe Haven Demand: Easing due to progress in U.S.–China trade talks
Macroeconomic Data: Mixed; CPI soft, and growth modest
CHF Outlook: Mildly bearish unless geopolitical risk reignites
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: Breakout already underway at 1.1050
Upside Targets:
1.1116 (first TP)
1.1190 (major resistance zone)
1.1290 (extension zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1000 (below wedge retest zone)
Strategy: Buy-the-dip on pullback to 1.1040–1.1015, or hold breakout long
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF shows a clean bullish breakout both technically and fundamentally. With the UK economy showing near-term resilience and the SNB expected to remain cautious, GBP strength may persist in the short run. Unless geopolitical risks resurface to revive CHF demand, the pair looks poised for a rally toward 1.1190 and possibly 1.1290 in the coming sessions.
EUR/USD Daily Short SetupSetup: Retest of the former support zone (now supply) after the recent pullback from the mid-April highs
Entry: Short around 1.1336 (within the shaded resistance box)
Stop-Loss: Above the recent swing high at 1.1390
Take-Profit: Near the lower range support at 1.0735
Risk : Reward: ~1 : 5
Rationale:
Following a strong rally from early March to mid-April, EUR/USD has corrected sharply and is now back into the grey supply area that previously acted as support. This zone is likely to cap upside moves, making a short entry here attractive. The next major support lies around 1.0735, offering a high reward relative to risk. A break above 1.1390 would invalidate the setup.
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Entry 📈: The vault’s open! Grab bullish opportunities at any price, but for precision, set buy limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe near swing lows or highs for pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Place your Thief SL at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (0.52300) for scalping or day trades.
📍 Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders.
Target 🎯: Aim for 0.56000.
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Entry 📈: The vault’s open! Grab bullish opportunities at any price, but for precision, set buy limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe near swing lows or highs for pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Place your Thief SL at the recent swing low on the 1H timeframe (0.59400) for scalping or day trades.
📍 Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders.
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News can shake the market hard. Protect your trades by:
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NEXT MOVE Bearish Disruption Analysis:
1. Support Breakdown Risk
The chart highlights the 145.000–145.200 area as a support zone.
If price breaks below this support with strong bearish momentum, it could invalidate the bullish reversal expectation.
A close below 144.800 would confirm weakness, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment
BTCUSD NEXT MOVE Support Breakdown Scenario:
• If the price fails to hold the highlighted support area (~$103,200), it could invalidate the bullish projection.
• A break below $103,000 would likely trigger stop-losses and accelerate downside momentum.
Bearish Target:
• Next strong support may lie near $101,200–$100,800 (psychological and historical levels).
US30 Technical Analysis – GTE VIP Sell AlertUS30 Technical Analysis – GTE VIP Sell Alert
Price has tapped into a strong resistance zone near 41,700, where previous rejections occurred. After a sharp bullish push, momentum appears to be slowing, and the market is overextended on the 1H chart. We expect a potential retracement toward the mid-range or support zone near 41,600–41,550. Stochastic is in the overbought area, signaling a possible reversal.
Week of 5/11/25: AUDUSD AnalysisDaily is bullish, so in the future price possibly will trend up.
In the meantime 4h and 1h are bearish but has reached a critical daily demand zone at the extreme of daily structure.
So far 1h internal is bullish, so we are still looking for longs cautiously until structure is broken.
Major news:
China trade talks - Monday
CPI - Tuesday
PPI/Unemployment - Thursday
CAD/USD growing more bullishIn this chart we can see the CAD/USD conversion rate has formed a bullish divergence.
This pattern is formed when price action creates lower lows whereas simultaneously the RSI creates higher lows.
This divergence is indicative of a future sharp and sudden rise in price.
Entered (2) 6CM contracts at .72145
Target price of .72645
USDCAD – Reversal Setup Ahead of FOMC DecisionUSD/CAD has bounced off strong support near 1.3770, forming a clean bullish structure into a pivotal week dominated by the FOMC meeting. Price action shows higher lows and a tightening range, signaling a potential breakout. With the Fed expected to hold rates but maintain a hawkish tone, the USD may regain strength — especially against the CAD, which remains under pressure from trade risks and weak oil prices.
🔹 Technical Setup:
Structure: Rejection at 1.3770 support with ascending trendline developing.
Pattern: Bullish flag breakout (visible on 2H chart).
Momentum: Recovery candles suggest buyers regaining control ahead of resistance.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.3770 – 1.3780
Resistance:
TP1: 1.3852 (Fib 61.8%)
TP2: 1.3891 (swing high zone)
TP3: 1.3950 (major breakout target)
Invalidation: Below 1.3760
🧠 Fundamental View:
USD Outlook:
The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on May 7, but officials are pushing back against early rate-cut expectations. Chair Powell is likely to emphasize inflation risks and signal no imminent easing. This stance supports USD resilience, especially if the Fed reiterates “higher for longer” messaging.
CAD Outlook:
The Canadian economy continues to face export challenges from U.S. tariffs, weakening business sentiment. Meanwhile, softening oil prices reduce support for the CAD. With the Bank of Canada having already delivered several rate cuts, it remains more dovish than the Fed — creating a widening policy divergence.
💡 Trade Idea:
Bias: Bullish above 1.3780
Entry Zone: 1.3800–1.3820
Target 1: 1.3852
Target 2: 1.3891
Target 3: 1.3950
Stop Loss: Below 1.3760
📌 Watch for volatility during and after the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference. A hawkish surprise could fuel a sharp move toward 1.39+.
EURUSD Is Ready to Break Resistance LinesEURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is trying to break the Resistance lines , it has tried several times in the past few days but failed. Will EURUSD succeed this time?
In terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has completed the main wave 4 near the Support zone($1.1300-$1.1160) and Support line , and we should wait for impulsive waves . Breaking the Resistance zone($1.1480-$1.1420) can confirm the end of the main wave 4 . Otherwise , the main wave 4 can have other forms.
I expect EURUSD to break the Resistance lines in this attack and rise to at least $1.1384 , and the next target can be around $1.1437 .
Note: If EURUSD can break below $1.1272(the worst Stop Loss(SL)), we can expect more dumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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GBPUSD BIG MOVE COMING?Structure Overview:
The market has been ranging within a clear horizontal consolidation zone, with two key zones:
Support Zone: 1.32600 - 1.33000 (gray box at the bottom)
Resistance Zone : 1.33500 - 1.33800 (gray box at the top)
Price recently broke above the upper consolidation range, suggesting bullish momentum.
🔍 Analysis:
The pair has broken out of the consolidation range after multiple rejections from the support zone.
We now look for a potential retest of the previous resistance (1.33500 area) as new support.
Two potential bullish continuation scenarios are highlighted:
📌 Trade Plan:
Scenario 1 – Immediate Continuation:
If price holds above 1.33500, look for bullish continuation toward:
TP1: 1.34026
TP2: 1.34208
Scenario 2 – Retest Setup:
Wait for a pullback to the 1.33000–1.33500 zone.
Confirmation of bullish rejection (e.g., bullish engulfing or pin bar) could provide a high-probability long setup.
Entry: After bullish confirmation in retest zone
SL: Below 1.33000 (invalidates breakout)
TP: 1.34026 / 1.34208
📉 Invalidations:
A clean break and close below 1.33000 may suggest a failed breakout, putting 1.32600 back into play.
🧠 Bias: Bullish (as long as 1.33000 holds)
🕒 Timeframe: 4H
XAUUSD NEXT MOVE Over-Reliance on Double Top Projection
• The chart assumes a price move straight up to form a “double top” around 3,540–3,550 without acknowledging possible market hesitation or intervening resistance zones.
• A double top pattern requires a confirmation of rejection at the same level; assuming it prematurely can be misleading.
2. Support Zone Might Not Be Strong Enough
• The “Strong Support and Bullish Area” is drawn around 3,200–3,230, but the bounce shown in the chart is still not well-established. A break below this would invalidate the bullish thesis.
• There is no confirmation of higher lows, which is critical for a trend reversal.
3. Overlooked Bearish Pressure
• The previous high (around 3,540) led to a sharp selloff, indicating strong supply. This area could be a distribution zone rather than just resistance.
• Market sentiment might still be bearish unless a higher high is confirmed.
4. Resistance Area Is Vague
• The “Resistance” zone between 3,340–3,360 is too narrow and lacks confluence with indicators like moving averages or volume spikes.
• A pullback from this zone is plausible, and it should be treated as a decision area, not just a step before price rallies.
5. Economic Events Are Ignored
• There is an icon showing a U.S. economic event, but the chart doesn’t factor in fundamental catalysts, which could disrupt technical patterns significantly.
USDJPY NEXT MOVE Assumption of a Bullish Continuation (Without Confirmation)
• Disruption: The projected upward path to the “Double Top Resistance” presumes a bullish continuation without confirming signals (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or RSI divergence).
• Alternative View: Price is currently rejecting the resistance zone and heading downward—this could be the start of a deeper retracement or trend reversal, not just a dip.
⸻
2. “Strong Support” Zone is Based on a Single Bounce
• Disruption: The “Strong Support” zone is derived from a single historical reaction. It might not hold on the next test, especially if momentum and volume increase on the way down.
• Counterpoint: Stronger support typically comes from multiple prior reactions or a broader consolidation zone.
⸻
3. Lack of Consideration for Bearish Structure
• Disruption: The broader structure is bearish (from left to right on the chart), with lower highs and lower lows. The analysis skips over this longer-term downtrend context.
• Alternative: Instead of anticipating a return to 148, traders might watch for short setups if price fails to break back above the resistance cleanly.
⸻
4. Volume Decline During the Recent Rally
• Disruption: The bullish leg into early May shows diminishing volume. This divergence between price increase and falling volume weakens the bullish case.
• Warning Sign: Could indicate a bull trap, followed by a sharper fall through the support.
⸻
5. Overemphasis on “Double Top” without Neckline Break
• Disruption: The projected double top at ~148 assumes that level will be revisited. But without a confirmed breakout through 144.000, it’s premature to predict such a move.
• Risk: Traders buying now on this expectation may be caught in a pullback that dips below the “Strong Support.”