EURUSD Analysis Week 43🌐Fundamental Analysis
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as expected after its October policy meeting. In its policy statement, the ECB noted that it will continue to pursue a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine the appropriate level and duration of policy accommodation.
In her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that economic activity in the Eurozone has been weaker than expected. On the inflation outlook, Lagarde said low confidence, geopolitical tensions and low investment pose downside risks to inflation. Lagarde's dovish tone kept the euro under pressure in the second half of Thursday.
The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data on Friday. Meanwhile, US stock index futures traded in positive territory during the European session.
🕯Technical Analysis
EURUSD has recovered at the end of the week after consecutive bearish pullbacks. The downtrend is still showing no signs of stopping as the bullish waves are still relatively weak. At least the pair must recover and close above the 1.095 area to be considered a broken downtrend. Watch the resistance zone when the price recovers around 1.095 and 1.103 for SELL signals. The extended pullback of the pair may extend to 1.072 before the bulls can jump in to prevent the pair from continuing to slide.
📈📉Trading Signals
BUY EURUSD 1.07200-1.07000 Stoploss 1.06800
SELL EURUSD 1.09500-1.09700 Stoploss 1.09900
Forexsignals
US30 Market Analysis (Sell Bias):US30 Market Analysis (Sell Bias):
We are selling US30 due to key technical indicators pointing towards a potential downside move. The price is currently at strong resistance levels, where past price action has shown difficulty in breaking higher. In addition, the trend lines indicate a downward trajectory, and pivot points are aligning with this resistance, reinforcing the sell signal.
The stochastic oscillator is also showing overbought conditions, suggesting the index is overextended and due for a pullback. With these factors in play, a sell position aligns well with the current technical setup.
Could the Cable rise from here?The price has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3033
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.2981
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.3146
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.50030
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.50776
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.49549
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Overlap resistance ahead?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level.
Pivot: 0.6744
1st Support: 0.6674
1st Resistance: 0.6792
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot point which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.0896
1st Support: 1.0834
1st Resistance: 1.0955
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the Cable rise from here?The price is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3034
1st Support: 1.2977
1st Resistance: 1.3103
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Silver Shines Brighter: A Bullish Run to $39.62 After Rate Cut?Hey Realistic Traders, let’s dive into the analysis of OANDA:XAGUSD
On the daily timeframe, silver has consistently traded above the EMA100, signaling a strong bullish trend. Additionally, it has broken through the upper trendline of a wide descending broadening wedge pattern . This breakout, confirmed by a bullish Marubozu candlestick, indicates strong buyer momentum. The MACD’s bullish crossover further supports the expectation of continued upward movement.
With these technical indicators in alignment, we anticipate silver advancing toward Target Area 1 at 36.76 and potentially reaching Target Area 2 at 39.62. However, the support level at 27.59 remains critical; a break below this level could invite bearish pressure.
In the broader macroeconomic landscape, central banks across multiple countries are enacting rate cuts to stimulate growth amid slowing economic conditions. Combined with declining manufacturing PMIs, geopolitical tensions, and the US-China economic slowdown, these factors heighten uncertainty. As a result, safe-haven assets like silver and gold are expected to benefit, as investors seek protection against market volatility. This influx of demand may provide further upward momentum for silver prices.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Silver.
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
GBP/USD: Potential Short Opportunity at ResistanceOn the 4-hour time frame, GBP/USD has recently experienced a strong breakout through a key support level, which has now turned into resistance. I expect that when the price returns to this resistance zone, sellers could re-enter the market, causing a potential rejection. This could present an ideal shorting opportunity if the price gets rejected at the resistance level. Keep a close eye on this area for a possible short setup.
US30 (H1)The Dow Jones index was able to close the week with great positivity.
Therefore, we are looking forward to buying from levels 42905 in case we get confirmation of price action from this level with a stop loss of an hourly candle below 42736 with a first target at levels 43308, 43500 and 43688.
Second scenario: If the Dow Jones index corrects deeply without price action signals that support the rise, we look forward to buying the second, which is the strongest, at levels 42594 and stopping at levels 42368 and holding below it for an hourly candle.
With targets at levels 43174, 43306 and 43500
What America Does with Its Money ? 🇺🇸 Decoding America's Spending: A Deep Dive into Government Finances
This topic has been on the horizon for a while, and I think many new traders will be pleased to see it so LFG
Just like a business, the government has its own financial records :
💰 Money comes in (primarily from taxes)
💸 Money goes out (to fund a variety of programs)
With an expected gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $29 trillion in 2024, the US remains the world’s largest economy, surpassing China’s $18.5 trillion.
However, the US government isn’t exactly profitable. In fact, it’s been consistently running a growing deficit, raising concerns about its long-term financial stability.
As a general election approaches, it's more important than ever to understand how the US generates and spends its money. So, let’s dive into the details
Here’s a quick overview:
- Revenue: A deep dive into taxes
- Spending: Powering the nation
- Bottom Line: Operating costs & the deficit
- National Debt: A mounting challenge
- The Future: America's financial outlook
1. Revenue: A Deep Dive into Taxes
The US government operates on an enormous scale, and like any large organization, it requires a consistent stream of income to stay functional. However, unlike businesses that sell products or services, the government generates revenue primarily through taxes and fees
In fiscal year 2023, the federal government collected an astounding $4.4 trillion
So, where does all of this money come from? Let’s take a closer look:
👥 Individual Income Taxes:Nearly 50% of the government’s total revenue comes from individuals. Every time you receive a paycheck, a portion is automatically sent to Uncle Sam. This also includes taxes on capital gains from investments.
🏦 Social Security and Medicare Taxes: About 36% of revenue is generated from these taxes, which support programs like Social Security and Medicare for retirees and older adults. It’s a system where current workers help fund benefits for those who have already retired.
🏢 Corporate Income Taxes:Around 10% of the total revenue comes from businesses, which contribute a portion of their profits to the federal government. This is reflected in the income tax provisions that companies report.
🧩 Other Revenue:The remaining ~4% is sourced from various channels such as excise taxes (extra charges on goods like alcohol and tobacco), estate taxes, customs duties, and even fees collected from national park visits.
2. Spending: Powering the Nation
Now that we’ve seen how money flows into the US Treasury, it’s time to explore the exciting part figuring out how it’s spent. The US government faces the enormous responsibility of keeping the country functioning, covering everything from national defense to healthcare and infrastructure. And that demands a massive amount of spending
In fiscal year 2023, the federal government's net cost was $7.9 trillion, which is almost as large as the combined GDP of Germany and Japan the world’s third and fourth largest economies!
-Outlays vs. Net Cost:In FY23, total outlays (the actual cash spent) reached $6.1 trillion. Outlays refer to the cash disbursements, while the net cost also includes accrual-based accounting adjustments, such as changes in the future value of federal employee retirement benefits.
Who’s Deciding Where the Money Goes
So, how does the government determine how to allocate all this money? It’s a balancing act involving both the President and Congress:
-The President’s Proposal: The President begins the process by proposing a budget, outlining spending priorities based on requests from federal agencies. Think of it as a wish list—with a lot of extra zeros.
-House and Senate Role:Next, the House and Senate Budget Committees take over. They review the President’s proposal, make adjustments, and ultimately create the final spending bills. This process involves hearings, debates, and a fair amount of political negotiation.
Types of Spending
-Mandatory Spending:These are legally required expenses, like Social Security and Medicare, which make up a significant portion of the budget. These costs rise over time, particularly as the population ages
-Discretionary Spending:This is the part of the budget where the President and Congress decide how much to allocate to areas like defense, education, and more. In FY23, discretionary spending accounted for roughly 28% of total outlays, and it involves a yearly struggle as various departments compete for funding.
-Supplemental Spending: In cases of emergency, Congress can pass additional funding outside the normal budget cycle, as it did for the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Where the Money Goes
Now, let's dive deeper into the specific areas where all that spending is directed:
-🏥 Healthcare Heavyweight:The Department of Health and Human Services commands the largest portion of spending, making up 22% of the net cost. This reflects the huge outlays for healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
-👵 Social Safety Net:Programs like Veterans Affairs and the Social Security Administration also require significant funding, together accounting for 18% of the budget. This demonstrates the high priority placed on supporting veterans and retirees.
-🫡 Defense and Security:The Department of Defense, tasked with ensuring national security, takes up 13% of government spending!
-💸 The Interest Burden: A growing share of the budget is going toward paying interest on the national debt, consuming 9% of total spending.
In FY23, government outlays represented 22% of the US economy (GDP). Over the past decade, this figure has remained slightly above 20%, excluding the exceptional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. Bottom Line: Operating Cost & Deficit
When government expenditures exceed its revenue, a budget deficit occurs
In FY23, the U.S. government recorded a $1.7 trillion deficit (revenue minus outlays).
Here’s a breakdown of two key financial terms:
-Net Operating Cost:This includes all costs incurred by the government, even if the payments haven’t been made yet. In FY23, the net operating cost was $3.4 trillion
-Budget Deficit:This is a narrower measure, focusing only on the cash difference between revenue and outlays. As mentioned, the FY23 budget deficit stood at $1.7 trillion
Both of these financial measures reveal a government consistently spending beyond its means—a pattern that has persisted for decades. In fact, over the past 50 years, the U.S. federal budget has only seen a surplus four times, with the most recent one occurring in 2001.
4. National Debt: A Mounting Challenge
So, how does the government continue operating despite being in the red?
It borrows money, mainly by issuing Treasury bonds, bills, and other securities. This borrowing adds to the national debt, which has grown into a major concern for the country’s economic outlook.
As of September 2024, the national debt has reached a staggering $36 trillion. To put that in perspective, it's as if every person in the US owes over $100,000!
Every time the government spends more than it earns, the shortfall is added to the national debt, which, in turn, increases the interest payments that need to be made in the future.
Why the Debt Keeps Growing ?
Several factors contribute to the relentless increase of the national debt:
-Persistent Deficits:For decades, the government has continuously spent more than it collects in revenue, leading to ongoing debt accumulation.
-Wars and Economic Crises: Significant events such as wars (like those in Iraq and Afghanistan) and economic crises (including the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic) often necessitate large government expenditures, further escalating the debt.
-Tax Cuts and Spending Increases: Policy decisions that either reduce government revenue (through tax cuts) or increase spending (by introducing new programs or expanding existing ones) also play a role in growing the debt.
The national debt presents a complicated issue without straightforward solutions. It requires balancing essential funding for programs and services while ensuring the nation’s long-term financial health.
5. The Future: America’s Finances
The road ahead is filled with challenges. The national debt continues to rise, with a debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 100%, raising concerns about the nation's long-term economic stability and ability to fulfill financial commitments.
According to the Department of the Treasury, the current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. Projections based on existing policies show a persistent gap between expected revenue and spending. Without substantial policy reforms, the national debt is likely to keep increasing.
Several factors will influence the future of America’s finances:
-Economic Growth: A strong economy generates higher tax revenues, making it easier to manage the debt. Conversely, slower growth could worsen the deficit and increase the debt burden.
-Interest Rates:Rising interest rates would elevate the cost of servicing the national debt, redirecting funds from other vital programs.
-Inflation: Excessive government debt can contribute to inflation, diminishing the purchasing power of individuals and businesses.
-Political Polarization: The significant partisan divide in U.S. politics complicates consensus-building on fiscal policy and the implementation of long-term solutions to address the debt.
-Demographic Shifts: An aging population increases pressure on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, leading to higher government spending and potentially widening the deficit.
To tackle the challenges of growing debt and deficits, a combination of strategies is needed:
-Controlling Spending:Identifying areas for budget cuts or finding more efficient methods to deliver government services.
-Increasing Revenue:Exploring avenues for raising revenue through tax reforms or other means.
-Fostering Economic Growth:Implementing policies that promote sustainable long-term economic growth and boost tax revenues.
-Encouraging Bipartisan Cooperation:Seeking common ground across party lines to implement lasting fiscal reforms.
The future of America’s finances remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: addressing the national debt and ensuring the nation’s long-term fiscal health will require tough decisions and a commitment to responsible financial management.
What Can Be Done?
It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the scale of these challenges, but meaningful change often starts with informed citizens. As we head into a new election cycle, understanding how the US government manages its finances is more crucial than ever.
So, what do you think should be America’s financial priorities?
Should policymakers concentrate on cutting spending, raising taxes, or fostering economic growth?
GBPJPY (H1) The pound yen made the expected corrective move during today's trading session and reached the golden area, which is considered the key to the downward trend. Accordingly, we look forward to selling from these areas. Stop loss above the levels of 197.144 and our targets are 192.23 and 189 as shown.
OANDA:GBPJPY
EURUSDEURUSD price is near the support zone 1.08297-1.07970. If the price cannot break through the 1.07970 level, it is expected that in the short term there is a chance that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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Gold swing bull and bear read the caption price reached a fresh all-time high on Thursday, trading as high as $2,969.63 a troy ounce during American trading hours. Gold buyers gained confidence early in Asia as the poor performance of local shares fueled demand for safety. Demand for the bright metal was also backed by concerns about the United States (US) future government. Three weeks ahead of the election, polls show a tight vote intention between the two candidates, generating uncertainty
Gold swing bull and bear read the caption price reached a fresh all-time high on Thursday, trading as high as $2,969.63 a troy ounce during American trading hours. Gold buyers gained confidence early in Asia as the poor performance of local shares fueled demand for safety. Demand for the bright metal was also backed by concerns about the United States (US) future government. Three weeks ahead of the election, polls show a tight vote intention between the two candidates, generating uncertainty
USDCHF: Bullish Trend Continues 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF is currently trading in a strong bullish trend.
After setting a new high, the market started to consolidate
within a narrow parallel channel on a 4H.
Its resistance violation signifies a continuation of an up movement.
I expect growth to 0.8693
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Gold (XAU) Technical AnalysisGold Daily Chart – Breakout from Descending Broadening Wedge
The gold marketplace has damaged out of the descending broadening wedge sample at the each day chart. The charge keeps bullish momentum inside the ascending broadening wedge sample, with a goal variety of $2800-$3000.
Gold 4-Hour Chart – Price Target of $2,745
On the 4-hour chart, the charge is breaking above the midline of the ascending channel. This charge power suggests the short-time period goal of $2,745, measured from the ascending channel resistance line. The RSI tactics the overbought region. Therefore, expenses would possibly consolidate earlier than the following rally.
💎 TVC:GOLD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720
💎 TVC:GOLD buy 2690 - 2692💎
✔️TP1: 2710
✔️TP2: 2720
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2683
World gold prices reached record levelsWorld gold prices hit record levels as uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East sent investors looking for safe haven assets. Along with that, the loose monetary policy environment continues to keep gold prices at high levels.
Gold has seen gains of more than 30% this year, surpassing record levels, boosted by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further after a 0.5% cut. % points interest rates last month and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
USD-Index - a measure of the strength of the greenback with a basket of major currencies - currently reaches 103.7 points, down 0.05% compared to before.
💎 TVC:GOLD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720
💎 TVC:GOLD buy 2690 - 2692💎
✔️TP1: 2710
✔️TP2: 2720
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2683
Gold and Dollar both increased dramaticallyGoldman`s Chloe Garber instructed customers nowadays that Polymarket is priced at 60/forty, there's ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% disadvantage to 50/50 odds.
"I suppose there's a opportunity this pair should visit the July highs earlier than the election, however it might require a few horrible polls for Kamala Harris, while a variety of paintings has been done.
Clients are making a bet this route due to the fact a 60/forty marketplace going to a hundred delta continues to be an engaging proposition while a coin turn is simply hard."
Importantly, she introduced that this nearby Trump fashion hasn't been pushed through income revisions...revisions were barely terrible because the quit of July, so if 3Q incomes season matters, those shares should get affected.
Small Caps underperformed nowadays (for a change), however all of the majors ended properly off their highs of the day. The S&P ended unchanged and Nasdaq marginally better as The Dow hit any other document last high....
💎 XAUUSD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720
Gold price surges and sets new ATHThe European Central Bank (ECB) reduce hobby quotes extensively via way of means of 25 foundation points, in keeping with economists` expectancies.
The ECB stated falling inflationary pressures are developing situations to loosen economic coverage: "Inflation statistics suggests that the deflation technique is at the proper track."
similarly ECB easing withinside the first 1/2 of of 2025. "It basically stays that the ECB will supply a similarly 25-factor reduce at its December meeting, accompanied via way of means of comparable cuts in early 2025 till whilst deposit quotes reached a impartial stage of round 2% withinside the summer.
Gold charges are receiving robust help from secure haven call for and issues approximately escalating geopolitical tensions. In addition, expectancies that americaA Federal Reserve (FED) will hold to loosen economic coverage after reducing hobby quotes via way of means of 1/2 of a percentage closing month are increasing.
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720