EURUSD Analysis – Short Bias Builds on Key Resistance RejectionEURUSD pair is currently testing a critical resistance zone around 1.1495–1.1500, with bearish rejection beginning to form on the 4H timeframe. The technical setup suggests a potential lower high forming within the context of a broader downtrend, supported by a confluence of horizontal resistance and bearish risk catalysts.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Resistance Zone: 1.1495–1.1575 (multi-timeframe key levels)
Support Levels to Watch: 1.1234 (range base) and 1.1086 (swing low)
Price Action: After a sustained rally, price is showing exhaustion near previous highs, and a rejection pattern is emerging, suggesting selling interest.
Risk Management: Stop placed above 1.1575 high, with downside targets near 1.1234 and extended toward 1.1086.
🧠 Fundamental Backdrop:
ECB Policy Outlook: Lagarde recently warned that a stronger euro and higher tariffs may hurt EU exports. This dovish tone could weigh on EUR sentiment in the medium term.
US Dollar Strengthening: The latest US labor market data (ADP, JOLTS) beat expectations, showing continued resilience in employment and wage growth. This supports the Fed's data-dependent approach, favoring a stronger USD.
Macro Tensions: Global trade concerns (Trump’s tariffs, weak China demand, Germany’s slowing job market) are adding pressure to EUR while supporting safe-haven USD flows.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (April): Highlights persistent inflation fears and deteriorating economic confidence.
⏳ Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bearish Bias Preferred below 1.1500 with confirmation of rejection.
🎯 Target Zone 1: 1.1234 – Strong structure & demand zone.
🎯 Target Zone 2 (Extended): 1.1086 – Major low from mid-May.
❌ Invalidation: A breakout and close above 1.1575 would neutralize the bearish outlook and open up higher targets toward 1.17.
Conclusion: The EURUSD pair presents a compelling short opportunity, with both technical resistance and macro pressure aligning for a retracement or reversal. Short setups are favored unless bulls reclaim and hold above the 1.1575 handle.
