XAUUSD - KOG Report KOG Report:
In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be expecting more choppy and whipsawing price action with price staying within the range until FOMC at least. We said we would be looking for the levels of 50-55 and 30-35 to go long and the levels of 80-85 and above that 90-95 to go short. The early part of the week gave tremendous opportunities to scalp the market using the KOG boxes with the FOMC report then being published giving the levels to long or short the market from. We managed to get a nice bounce from one of the levels illustrated on the chart giving us a move to the upside where we then closed.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Another frustrating week with choppy price action, whipsawing and ranging is expected until they decide to make the move, which we feel will be a big move for Gold and across the markets. We would suggest you trade this period of the markets with extreme caution, take the best trades with the best set ups, try not to get involved when the price action is not clear.
We again have the higher and lower levels where we will be looking for the long trades, or the short trades. The immediate resistance level stands at 1968-72 with the immediate support the 1950-55 order region. We would expect the price to start the week within this range unless there is a bigger move, so scalping the markets is recommended. The hourly is showing signs of weakness, but price will need to close below that 1950 level to then target the 1940 and below that 1935 levels and potentially lower! So any bounces from the 1955-50 levels in the early sessions could represent opportunities to long the market back up into the higher resistance levels.
Our ideal scenario here is to wait for the early sessions, then either look for the long trade into the higher regions before we decide if we’re going to short it again or not, or, look for the short trade before we decide to long the market. We’re going to remain with our bias for now, but this range is making it difficult to pick a direction, so again, please trade with caution until this breaks out and then starts the move.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Forexstrategy
AUDCHF ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYHi Traders,
This is a pair on my radar. It just formed a buy-side liquidity pool that needs to be swept. This is one pattern I have noticed in the market for a long time. In this case, I expect it to play out for a few reasons I will list out.
1. On the monthly timeframe, we dumped into a key level now a retracement in at play
2. On the weekly timeframe, we have a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) to fill as marked on my chart
3. On the daily timeframe, the price created equal highs as I have marked on my chart which is just below the weekly FVG
4. This last point is for people that trade chart patterns, we are to expect an inverse head and shoulders to play out
The above reasons drive me to speculate about this rally.
I don't know when the rally may happen but watch out for it.
If you have any comments about my analysis or forex in general, let me know.
Enjoy
David
An easy way to calculate actual riskBefore executing a trade it's very IMPORTANT that you know the exact amount of money you're risking on that trade so that you don't end up taking a very big risk. Suffering losses is NORMAL in forex trading and the only way to make sure that you do not get psychologically affected by your trades or to ensure you don't blow your account is by applying proper risk management. The idea is to risk between 2-4% of your equity on ALL your running trades. I hope this helps someone.
My thoughts on gold 19th Dec 2022, Setup 2Since in order for the exchange rate to buy higher, it must first drop lower in order to buy at a discounted price. It's everyday simple business law. Therefore, in this case gold might retrace to fill the 1H void in price then perhaps rally from the fair value gap or the order block. However, I consider this a riskier trade as opposed to the short setup because of the pool of liquidity lying below last week's cluster of lows. APPLY PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT
How to do accurate entries using the 50% fib levelThis strategy will require you to be able to distinguish between the impulsive move and the retracement since we only apply the fib retracement tool to the impulsive move.
What you do is just lay your fib from the body to the body (not the wicks) then identify the 50% retracement level.
Now if you're an aggressive trader you can set a pending order or just execute an instant entry once price reaches your 50% retracement level.
On the other hand if you're a less aggressive trader, you will make a decision based on what price action will reveal at the 50% retracement level. I'll leave it to you to decide what kind of trader you are.
My thoughts on gold 14th Dec 2022Gold has a high volume and momentum bullish candlestick that was caused by yesterday's core CPI news. With the momentum candle having broken structure upwards, I think it's most likeley that price will continue bullish at least to run the engineered liquidity above yesterday's daily high. NOTE: BE CAREFUL OF CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES AS THEY MIGHT NULLIFY THE SETUP
US100 UPDATEThis setup would have worked quite fine but price decided to target last week's lows for liquidity runs. I hadn't anticipated that since I expected those lows to be run during a news event. However, I had warned that the setup had quite a high risk attached to it.
NZDUSD RESELL UPDATEI had marked that particular zone as a potential resell zone two days ago and it activated but there is no presence of market makers. Instead price is consolidating which means that they are accumulating retail traders entries to act as engineered liquidity for their large positions. So when they have enough retail traders positions they'll most likely spike price upwards or downwards to take out stop losses then rush price in one direction. So if you took my setup it's advisable that you exit or secure your profit. THIS ANALYSIS DOESN'T GUARANTEE PRICE MOVEMENT.
US30 1HSince US30 doesn't show any bullish impulse on 15min and other lower timeframes, I think it might trigger buy orders at the 1H order block below the current lows and rally to fill the 4H volume imbalance. The setup offers a 1:2 R:R. USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT
GOLD 1H RESELLGold is supposed to drop a bit further but since it has started a consolidation, it might move upwards to sell at a discounted price which I think might most likely be at the 1H OB which is my potential entry price. The OB is also at 61.8% fib retracement level which counts as an optimal entry. The setup offers a 1:3.5 risk to return. SL and TPs shown on chart. USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT.