AUDUSD LONG TRADE1. Stopping volume: The previous bar is a down bar closing at the lows of the bar with high volume, what this means? possible selling, but, look how the next bar respons, high spread bar, closing at or near the highs with greater volume, so, if the previous bar was a weak bar, why the market didnt go down? The next bar is a up bar with not excesive volume, so, it confirms the demand.
2. Possible buying climax: Look at that volume, is incredible, in a up bar with wide spread closing at the middle of the bar, this is weakness, and need to be confirmed in the next bar, but evene if this not happend, you know that there is some selling that needs to be tested.
3. No demand: This bar do a incredible job, because is the first bar after the real weakness hit the market (the buying climax) in close above the close of that bar, and it did with literaly no volume, so, this is a confirmation of a weak market, why if you have demand in the market, the volume is not high or at least average?
4. Trap up move: This bar is seen after a no demand and a possible buying climax, this bar is the final confirmation of the weakness, you can say that this bar is caused by the brexit effect, but, if you read the chart 4 hours before you had a clear zone of distribution. This bar closes lower that the lows of the buying climax. This bar also contains high volume, so, be aware if there is some strenght you need a test or a no supply bar.
5. Gotcha bar: This bar is a down bar with a ultra wide spread, closing at or near the lows of the bar with the higher volume seen in the chart, so, be aware because this bar also contains a lot of demand, and that demand need to be tested to raise a market.
6-7. Supply coming in: Three up bars with wide spread closing off the highs or at the middle with high volume only indicates one thing; supply still in the market. But you are now in a zone that also contains demand by the gotcha bar, so, you need a clear breakout of the low of the bar 5 and bar 1 (where the demand hit the market).
8. Up-thrust: Up bar with wide spread closing almost where it opens with high volume, a clear bar that was absorbed by the supply. This bar will be our trigger to open a long position.
9. Test: This bar is a average-wide spread down bar closing almost at the highs, testing if there is some supply in the market at that zone, because the smart money sell in this bar, and if the volume is average-high, they know that other players are selling too, but, in this case, nobody (at least nobody in the smart money) wants to sell, you can see it in the low volume. The next bar confirms this signal.
10. Strenght coming in: Down bar wide spread with high volume closing in the middle of the bar, this bar says that the demand in that zone is absorbing the supply. This bar is seen in the same zone of previous strenght (the test) and in the same song as the signals 5-6-7, so, if there are no supply in this area, you now know that you got strenght. Wait for a confirmation and new signs of strenght in the future.
Well, im waiting in the 5M-15M timeframe to a SOS (sign of strenght) above the pink line (the last sign of weakness seen in this chart) to open a long position and my take profit will be the next pink bar. In this timeframe i cannot see a clear sign to open a position now.
Forextargets
USDINR The Upside overUSDINR which is currently near the range of 67.60-68, seems now trend is about to change in near future. We see this currency taking a dip till 52.80 and much lower till 38.40 in time to come. Seems USD is gonna be killed across the globe. This currency might take hit for all the globe currency. So be careful in USD long with any pairs.
CADJPY : Long OpportunityA confluence of Fibonacci and support line around a harmonic pattern spells a long opportunity. The price may try to reach a Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 85.76 but fail since it is seriously oversold. For those who can't wait for the formation to complete as indicated on the chart, wait for at least 87.5 to break set stop a few pips below 85.76
EURUSD : Long term Forecast for 2016 - 2017 I am not a long term trader however it is often good to know the prevailing market bias so that we don't make huge short term projections against the prevailing market bias. When you take a short position in 2016 it would be a good thing to be conservative with your targets as the EURUSD is going up. Once the 1.1059 break happens I see an area of resistance at 1.1616 - 1.1760 and also at 1.1901 - 1.2098 , so I do advise you look out for these areas as they may offer temporal reversals before the market goes for 1.2300
New York Session Watch EURCHFThere’s a bearish pin bar candlestick pattern in the making on EUR/CHF at the 1.2115 resistance level. This pin bar candlestick pattern also pierced through the upper end of the bollinger band and snaps back quickly. The long term trend is still bearish as all the short term moving averages are still below the 200 period long term moving average. The current support level is at 1.2080 and the resistance is at 1.2115. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also indicates that this market is overbought at the current price level which could lead the price lower in today’s New York session. If this candle closes as it is right now or slightly lower, we will officially have a bearish pin bar candlestick pattern at this 1.2115 resistance level which could offer a high probability of shorting opportunities in today New York session.
London Session Watch AUDUSDAUD/USD formed a false break of the inside bar candlestick pattern and the false break candle itself is pin bar candlestick pattern which adds odds to the short sellers in this market. This bearish candlestick pattern was formed at the tenken-sen and the 10 period moving average as well as near the middle band of the bollinger band. The trend is still bearish as the short term moving averages (10 and 20 period) remain firmly below the long term moving averages (50,100 and 200 period) and the Tenken-sen is well below the Kijun-sen as well. With all the odds in favor of the bears, we could potentially have shorting opportunities in today's London session.
New York Session Watch EURUSDThere's a pin bar candlestick pattern followed by a cluster of inside bar candlestick patterns printed on the EUR/USD chart. This combination of bearish candlestick patterns may lead the price lower in today's New York session. Note that when the pin bar candlestick pattern was formed, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was showing a overbought situation which adds odds for the short sellers. The long term trend is still down as the short term moving averages (10 and 20 period) continue to stay below the long term moving averages (50,100 and 200 period). The current support level is at 1.2870 and resistance level at 1.3000. With all that being said, we could potentially have selling opportunities in today's New York session.
London session Watch USDCADUSD/CAD surged after the break of the inside bar candlestick pattern that we covered yesterday. The breakout of the inside bar candlestick pattern lead the price to break the 1.1015 resistance level. Note that the inside bar candlestick pattern was coupled with the Stochastic and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) showing the price is oversold which adds strength for the breakout. The overall trend is still heading up thus we could potentially see a retracement before the price resumes this upside movement in today's London session.