XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
In the long term, gold remains in an uptrend. However, in the short term, after the break of the support zone, we expect a pullback to the broken level, followed by a potential decline at least to the identified support area.
What are your thoughts on this analysis? Do you agree, or do you see a different scenario playing out?
Share your insights in the comments!
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GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
This currency pair has been moving within an ascending channel, but after reaching the channel’s upper boundary, we saw a bearish reaction and price reversal.
Currently, the price has also broken below the support zone.
We expect that after a pullback to the broken level, the price will drop further, at least to the next identified support level.
What’s your outlook on this pair’s next move? Do you expect further downside?
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Gold weekly chart should be read the caption Gold continues to correct lower amid the selloff in the US stock market as it tightens financial conditions when it’s this aggressive.
The problem here is that we got weaker economic data with increasing inflation expectations. The market might be fearing that in case we get a slowdown, the Fed might not be fast enough in cutting rates amid inflation remaining above target and uncomfortably high long-term inflation
Gold CFDs at Critical Juncture: $2,800–$2,900 Range Dictates Xauusd "Gold" is bullish in long term but in short tem it will be more downward and short positions are strong we have to trade accordingly. As it has break the trend line and make some candles in downward so we have to take proper entry for short time.
Wait for a confirmed breakout/breakdown before committing to larger positions. Scalping is viable if price oscillates within the $2,800–$2,900 range.
USD/CHF Approaching Key Resistance – Potential Reversal Ahead?Analysis & Description:
The USD/CHF pair is currently testing a **strong resistance zone**, which previously acted as a significant **supply area**. Price has approached this **key level**, and a potential **rejection** could lead to a bearish move.
#### **Key Observations:**
✅ **Resistance Area (Supply Zone):** Price is retesting a previously respected **resistance** zone.
✅ **Bearish Setup:** If the price fails to break above the **0.90607 level**, a **reversal** could take the pair lower toward the **target area**.
✅ **Volume Confirmation:** Increasing volume near resistance indicates potential selling pressure.
### **Trading Plan:**
📉 **Bearish Scenario:**
- A rejection at **resistance** could lead to a move down toward **0.89267**, aligning with previous support.
- **Stop-loss** can be placed above **0.90607** in case of a breakout.
⚠️ **Bullish Risk:**
- If the price **breaks and holds above the resistance**, the bearish setup could be invalid, and further upside may occur.
### **Final Thought:**
USD/CHF is at a **crucial decision point**. Traders should **watch price action closely** for confirmation of either a **breakout or a rejection** before making a move! 🚨📊
USD/JPY Setup – Buy the Dip or Wait for Confirmation?The USD/JPY pair is testing a long-term trendline support, which has held multiple times in the past, signaling a critical decision point.
The price has bounced off this level before, suggesting strong buyer interest in this zone. Additionally, the Stochastic RSI is oversold, hinting at a potential reversal.
If the price holds above this trendline and key support zone, we could see a bullish continuation toward new highs.
EUR/USD at a Pivotal Level – Will Bulls Push Higher?The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of a trend reversal after breaking above a long-term descending trendline. This breakout, coupled with an inverse head and shoulders pattern and RSI bullish divergence, signals strengthening bullish momentum. However, the price faces key resistance around 1.0500-1.0527, aligned with the 200 EMA.
A confirmed break above this level could push the pair toward 1.10+, while failure to do so may lead to a pullback before another attempt higher.
XAU/USD : 1000 Pips Down from ATH, What's Next? (READ CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the one-hour timeframe, we can see that the price, based on the previous analysis, managed to rise by nearly 200 pips but then started to decline from the $2894 zone. Today, we witnessed a price correction down to $2859.
This week, gold has experienced a 3.5% correction from its all-time high, with a decline of over 1000 pips. Currently, gold is trading around $2860.
The attractive SELL zones are $2894, $2900, and $2906.
The attractive BUY zones are $2820, $2833, and $2845.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
How Can You Use a Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern in Trading?How Can You Use a Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern in Trading?
The spinning top candle is a key tool in technical analysis, highlighting moments of market indecision. This article explores what spinning tops represent, how they differ from similar patterns, and how traders can interpret them to refine their strategies across various market conditions.
What Does a Spinning Top Candlestick Mean?
A spinning top is a candlestick pattern frequently used in technical analysis. It consists of one candle with a small body and long upper and lower shadows of approximately equal length. The candle’s body symbolises the discrepancy between the opening and closing prices during a specified time period, while the shadows indicate that volatility was high and neither bulls nor bears could take control of the market.
This pattern signifies market indecision, where neither buyers nor sellers have gained dominance. It suggests a state of equilibrium between supply and demand, with the price oscillating within a narrow range. The spinning top may indicate continued sideways movement, particularly if it appears within an established range. However, if it forms after a bullish or bearish trend, it could signal a potential price reversal. Traders always look for additional signals from confirming patterns or indicators to determine the possible market direction.
It’s important to note that the spinning top candle is neutral and can be either bullish or bearish depending on its context within the price chart. The colour of the candle is not important.
Spinning Top vs Doji
Doji and spinning top candlesticks can be confused as they have similar characteristics. However, the latter has a small body and upper and lower shadows of approximately equal lengths. It indicates market indecision, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers without a clear dominant force. Traders interpret it as a potential reversal signal, reflecting a possible change in the prevailing trend.
The doji candlestick, on the other hand, has a small body, where the opening and closing prices are very close or equal, resulting in a cross-like shape. If it’s a long-legged doji, it may also have long upper and lower shadows. A doji candle also represents market indecision but with a focus on the relationship between the opening and closing prices. Doji patterns indicate that buyers and sellers are in equilibrium, and a potential trend reversal or continuation may occur.
How Do Traders Use the Spinning Top Pattern?
Traders often incorporate the spinning top candle pattern into their analysis as a way to interpret moments of market indecision. Whether the pattern appears during a trend or at key turning points, its context plays a significant role in shaping trading decisions.
In the Middle of a Trend
When a spinning top forms in the middle of an ongoing trend, traders often view it as a signal of potential market hesitation. This indecision can indicate a pause in momentum, suggesting either a continuation of the trend or the possibility of a reversal.
Entry
In such cases, traders typically wait for confirmation of the next price move. A break above the high of the spinning top may signal the trend will continue upward, while a break below the low could suggest the trend may move down. Observing how subsequent candles interact with the spinning top can help a trader gauge the market’s intentions.
Take Profit
Profit targets might be aligned with key price levels visible on the chart, such as recent highs or lows. For traders expecting trend continuation, these targets might extend further, while those anticipating a reversal might aim for closer levels.
Stop Loss
Stop-loss orders might be set in accordance with the risk-reward ratio. This placement helps account for the pattern's characteristic volatility while potentially protecting against unexpected movements.
At the Top or Bottom of a Trend
When a spinning top forms at a significant peak or trough, it often draws attention as a potential reversal signal. This appearance may reflect market uncertainty after a prolonged uptrend or downtrend.
Entry
Confirmation from subsequent price action is critical. Traders typically observe if the price breaks above the candle (bullish spinning top) or below the candle (bearish spinning top) to determine the likelihood of a reversal.
Take Profit
Targets could be set at major support or resistance zones. A trader expecting a reversal may look for levels reached during the previous trend.
Stop Loss
Stops could be placed in accordance with the risk-reward ratio, allowing for the volatility often present at trend-turning points while potentially mitigating losses.
Remember, trading decisions should not solely rely on this formation. It's crucial to consider additional technical indicators, market trends, and risk management principles when executing trades.
Live Example
In the EURUSD chart above, the red spinning top candle appears at the bottom of a downtrend. A trader went long on the closing of the bullish candle that followed the spinning top. A take-profit target was placed at the closest resistance level, and a stop-loss was placed below the low of the spinning top candlestick.
There is another bearish spinning top candlestick pattern on the right. It formed in a solid downtrend; therefore, a trader could use it as a signal of a trend continuation and open a sell position after the next candle closed below the lower shadow of the spinning top candle.
A Spinning Top Candle: Benefits and Drawbacks
The spinning top candlestick pattern offers valuable insights into market indecision, but like any tool in technical analysis, it has its strengths and limitations. Understanding these might help traders use it more effectively.
Benefits
- Identifies Market Indecision: Highlights moments where neither buyers nor sellers dominate, providing a clue about potential price reversals or continuations.
- Versatile Across Trends and Markets: Can signal price consolidation, continuation, or reversal depending on its context. It’s also possible to use the spinning top across stocks, currencies, and commodities.
- Quick Visual Insight: The distinctive shape makes it easy to spot on charts without extensive analysis.
Drawbacks
- Requires Confirmation: On its own, the pattern lacks particular signals, needing additional indicators or price action for confirmation.
- Context-Dependent: Its reliability depends heavily on where it forms in the trend, making it less useful in isolation.
- Prone to False Signals: Market noise can produce spinning tops that do not lead to meaningful movements, increasing the risk of misinterpretation.
Takeaway
The spinning top candlestick reflects market indecision and suggests a potential reversal or consolidation. Traders use this pattern as a tool to identify areas of uncertainty in the market. Therefore, it's important to consider the spinning top pattern within the broader context and get confirmation from other analysis tools.
If you want to test your spinning top candlestick trading strategy or apply it to a live chart, open an FXOpen account and start trading with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50. Good luck!
FAQ
What Is a Black Spinning Top?
A black (red) spinning top is a variation of the spinning top candlestick pattern with a small body and equal-length shadows. This is different from the white (green) spinning top, as its body indicates a lower closing price. Traders analyse its context, technical factors, and confirmation from other indicators to interpret its significance.
What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick?
A spinning top candle meaning refers to a pattern characterised by a small body and long upper and lower shadows of roughly equal length. It reflects market indecision, where neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear advantage, and is often used in technical analysis to assess potential trend reversals or consolidations.
Is the Spinning Top Bullish or Bearish?
The spinning top candlestick pattern is neutral by nature. Its significance depends on the context within the price chart. When it appears at the end of an uptrend, it may signal a bearish sentiment, while at the end of a downtrend, it can indicate a potential bullish reversal.
What Does a Spinning Top Candle Indicate?
This pattern indicates a period of indecision and balance between buying and selling pressure. Depending on its position within a trend, it can signal consolidation, continuation, or a reversal in price direction.
What Is the Spinning Top Rule?
There is no fixed "rule" for spinning top trading. Traders typically look for confirmation from subsequent price movements or other technical indicators to decide on a course of action.
Is Spinning Top a Doji?
Although similar, spinning tops and doji candles differ. A spinning top has a small body with visible discrepancies between opening and closing prices, whereas a doji’s body is almost non-existent.
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EURUSD Triangle Breakout Setup
The price is forming an ascending triangle pattern, with a strong resistance level at the top and a rising trendline acting as support. A potential breakdown from this structure could lead to a bearish move.
Key Levels:
📌 Resistance: 1.0580
📌 Support: 1.0440
Expected Scenario:
🔻 A rejection from resistance followed by a break of the trendline could trigger a drop towards 1.0400 and lower.
🔻 Watch for confirmation before entering short positions.
Trading Plan:
✅ Wait for a clear breakout below the trendline.
✅ Look for bearish retest before shorting.
✅ Stop-loss: Above recent highs.
✅ Target: 1.0400 & below.
📉 Bearish Bias unless price breaks above resistance.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
The EUR/USD pair is still struggling with the identified resistance zone and has been rejected multiple times from this level. Given the current market structure and the formed pattern, a corrective move toward the identified support area is expected. After completing the correction, the price is likely to resume its upward movement toward higher resistance levels.
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GJ | Still pushing downPrice is still trending down. I took a trade last night from the higher OB to the bottom of the range and it closed strong below the range. I will be looking for price to retrace back up into this 30M OB and will be watching lower time frame price action for confirmation to take it back down to the low. If price does not retrace back up that far and then continues to close below the current swing low, this trade will be invalidated.
Fri 28th Feb 2025 USD/SGD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a USD/SGD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Fri 28th Feb 2025 GBP/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Fri 28th Feb 2025 EUR/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a EUR/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
EUR/USD Bullish Reversal Setup – Key Support at 1.0330-1.0367Overview:
The EUR/USD 8-hour chart presents a bullish reversal scenario, with price retracing after breaking an ascending channel. The market is approaching a critical Fibonacci retracement zone (1.0367 - 1.0330), which aligns with a strong support level. A bullish rebound from this area could push price towards the supply zone near 1.0700.
Key Technical Analysis:
Rising Wedge Breakdown: Price recently broke below the ascending wedge, signaling a short-term bearish move.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.5 (1.0367) and 0.618 (1.0330) levels act as potential reversal zones.
Support Zone: The market is approaching a demand area where buyers are likely to step in.
Reversal Expectation: A bullish bounce from the Fibonacci zone could lead to a strong move back toward the previous resistance area (1.0700 - 1.0750).
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry: Look for a long position near 1.0367 - 1.0330 after bullish confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: 1.0500 (Short-term resistance).
🎯 Target 2: 1.0650 (Intermediate target).
🎯 Target 3: 1.0700 - 1.0750 (Major resistance).
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 1.0300 to minimize risk.
Conclusion:
EUR/USD is testing a crucial Fibonacci support zone, and if buyers step in, a strong rally toward 1.0700 is likely. Traders should watch for bullish confirmations before entering long positions.
📈 Bullish Bias – Watch for a Reversal from Key Support! 🚀
USD/JPY Bearish Reversal Key Resistance & Fibonacci Target ZonesOverview:
This USD/JPY daily chart shows a potential bearish reversal setup after a break below key support and trendline structure. The pair has recently dropped below a critical demand zone (highlighted in green), which has now turned into resistance. The price is currently attempting a pullback, and a potential rejection from the resistance zone aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.
Key Levels & Technical Analysis:
Previous Support Turned Resistance: The green zone represents a significant past support area that has now become resistance after a breakdown.
Trendline Break: The upward trendline that supported price action for several months has been broken, confirming bearish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.382 (151.265): A minor resistance level for a possible short-term rejection.
0.5 (148.979): A stronger resistance, aligning with structure.
0.618 - 0.786 (145.053 - 143.582): The ultimate bearish targets, coinciding with Fibonacci retracement extensions.
Bearish Projection:
The expected scenario suggests a short-term retracement towards the 151.265-148.979 resistance zone.
If the price faces rejection, a strong bearish continuation could target 145.053 and ultimately 143.582.
Trade Plan:
📌 Short Entry: Around 151.265 - 148.979 if price rejects resistance.
🎯 Target 1: 145.053 (0.70 Fibonacci)
🎯 Target 2: 143.582 (0.786 Fibonacci)
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 152.000 to invalidate the bearish setup.
Conclusion:
The overall sentiment for USD/JPY is bearish after breaking a key trendline and support level. Traders should watch for a pullback into the resistance zone, followed by a bearish rejection for a potential short trade. However, a break above 152.000 could invalidate this setup, shifting momentum back to the bulls.
📉 Bearish Bias Until Key Resistance Holds! 📉
Thu 27th Feb 2025 NZD/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a NZD/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
USDCAD: Massive selling until the end of the year.USDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.383, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 20.940) as it found support on the 1D MA100 and rebounded. We do believe howere that this bounce will be short lived as the pair hit the 9year resistance early this month and got heavily rejected. The first targets are the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. We do expect it to hit the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 1.2600) by the end of the year as both prior highs on R1 aggressively declined to hit at least the 0.786 Fib.
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EUR/JPY – High-Probability Short Setup 1️⃣ Market Overview – Bearish Bias Confirmation
EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retracing into a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, making this a prime opportunity to short the pair in line with institutional sentiment and seasonality trends.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels – Identifying Key Resistance
The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the most recent bearish impulse.
Resistance Zone: 0.5 (156.888) to 0.786 (157.107) – a high-probability rejection area.
If price fails to break above this zone, a continuation to the downside is expected.
Prime Seasonality Insights – Historical Data Supports the Short Bias
📊 Seasonality trends over 15 years indicate that EUR/JPY historically declines in late February and early March.
🔻 February seasonality performance: -0.7% average return
🔻 Next 3-5 day forecast: Bearish probabilities (-0.06% to -0.21%)
🔻 Seasonality prediction candles show a short-term retracement, followed by downside continuation.
💡 This aligns with the technical setup, reinforcing a short bias.
4️⃣ Retail Sentiment – Smart Money Edge
🚨 79% of retail traders are LONG on EUR/JPY – a contrarian signal for a short trade.
🔻 Institutions (Smart Money) are aggressively shorting EUR/JPY, as seen in COT data.
🔻 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increased institutional short positioning.
🔻 Retail traders trapped in longs will likely get stopped out, fueling further downside.
5️⃣ Technical Confirmation – Trendline & Indicators
✅ Price is below all major EMAs (6, 24, 72, 288) on the 4-hour chart.
✅ Supertrend remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe.
✅ A downward sloping trendline aligns with the Fibonacci resistance zone.
💡 I will wait for confirmation (rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle) before entering a short position.
6️⃣ Conclusion – Trade Plan for EUR/JPY
🔹 Bias: Bearish due to downtrend, Fibonacci resistance, seasonality, and institutional short positioning.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Sell EUR/JPY at 156.88 - 157.10 (Upon rejection)
Stop Loss: Above 157.26
Take Profit Targets: 156.30, 156.04, 156.00
🔹 Key Confirmation: Retail traders are trapped in longs, seasonality supports further downside, and institutions are short.
🚀 This is a prime example of how combining Seasonality, Smart Money Positioning, and Technicals can create a powerful trade setup.
📌 What’s your outlook on EUR/JPY? Let’s discuss in the comments!