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DXY: Some more downside is expected. Is it a buy after?The U.S. Dollar Index is on strong bearish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.538, MACD = -0.480, ADX = 39.006) as it is extending the Channel Down with a rejection today exactly on its top. The very same Channel Down was seen last October-December (2023) and declined by -6.25% before recovering. The buy signal was a DB (double bottom) on the 1D RSI. Consequently we will remain bearish on DXY (TP = 99.550) and only buy after we get a clear rebound (around -6.25%) and a DB on the RSI. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYShort
by InvestingScope
“Gold Prices Target 2600 Level”After the Fed cut its policy rate for the first time in four years, the dollar index saw further declines. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond dropped to 3.63% following the decision. This market reaction accelerated the push for gold prices towards the 2600 level. Additionally, the Fed indicated the possibility of another 50 basis point rate cut this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that upward risks to inflation have decreased, while downward risks to employment have increased. From a technical perspective, if prices remain consistently above the 2580 level, an increase to 2600 and then to 2650 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 2570 support level, a pullback could extend to 2535 and then to 2482.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by primequotes
“Dollar Index Declines After Fed Decision”The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy rate for the first time in four years, lowering it by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75%-5.00%. Following this decision, the decline in the dollar index accelerated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the decision shows increased confidence in maintaining a strong labor market while ensuring moderate growth and bringing inflation down to 2% sustainably. Additionally, the Fed lowered its federal funds rate projection for the end of this year from 5.1% to 4.4%, suggesting the possibility of a further 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year. Technically, if the index falls below the 100.50 level, the 100.0 and 99.50 levels can be considered support. However, if it recovers and moves above the 101.0 level, resistance can be observed at the 101.85 and 102.70 levels.
TVC:DXY
by primequotes
USDJPY Analysis: Awaiting Market Confirmation Post Fed Rate CutHi Traders, Following yesterday's USD news, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest rate by 0.25%. It seems the market has already absorbed this news, and our attention shifts back to the USDJPY pair. On Tuesday, my analysis showed a price break above the H4 structure. According to this structure, we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downtrend. However, predicting the exact point where the decline will begin is tricky. We'll need to carefully monitor price movements on smaller timeframes for more clarity. On the 1-hour (1Hr) chart, we're looking for either a new higher high (HH) or a slightly lower high (LH) to complete the current wave structure. Selling at this stage is premature. Instead, we’re looking to buy on the current swing of the 1Hr chart, waiting for a potential failure to make a new HH.
Long
by Charts247TradingAcademy
World gold price is moving sideways around 2,573 USD/ouncePressured by a rebound in the US dollar and a slight rise in US government bond yields, the yellow metal lost 0.5% after hitting an all-time high of $2,589 an ounce earlier in the week. Traders are now waiting to see whether the US Federal Reserve will pivot policy at this meeting as expected. Following a series of optimistic data, financial markets are predicting the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates more aggressively in its first interest rate cut since 2020. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is certain about the possibility of easing monetary policy with 63% predicting a cut of 50 basis points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU rises high waiting for investors to take profitAccording to signals from the Fed and the market, in this meeting, the US Central Bank will cut the operating interest rate for the first time since March 2020. Previously, the Fed had raised interest rates 11 times, from March 2022 to September 2023, bringing interest rates from a record low of 0-0.25%/year to the current 5.25-5.5%. The Fed raised interest rates to curb inflation, which peaked at a historical peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Maintaining interest rates at very high levels in the past 2 years has caused many difficulties for the American people and the economy has recently shown many negative signals, affecting the labor market. Many experts are worried that the US economy will fall into recession. Over the past month, Fed officials have sent many signals that the bank will cut interest rates.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
“Nasdaq's Target is 19,500”Today, there is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in the Fed meeting. By the end of the year, a total rate cut of 100 basis points is almost certain. This situation leads to a positive risk appetite being effective on the indices. On the U.S. side, retail sales increased by 0.1%. Meanwhile, industrial production in the U.S. pointed to a positivity exceeding expectations with a 0.8% rise. Technically, if the resistance level at 19,500 is permanently surpassed, the rise could gain momentum towards the 19,700 and then 19,950 resistance levels. On the downside, if the index falls below the 19,100 level, a pullback towards the support levels at 18,800 and then 18,450 might be seen.
NASDAQ:NDX
by primequotes
Brent oil trend moving down or up?Amid supply concerns in the markets, oil prices, which had dropped to the $69.30 level, saw a notable rebound. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.9 million barrel increase in weekly crude oil inventories, while a slight decrease is expected in the official crude oil inventories to be announced in the U.S. today. In the U.S., strong expectations remain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today. Therefore, despite the positive risk appetite, Brent oil prices have continued to trade with a bearish trend below the $73.00 level. Technically, if the 72.35 support level is broken, further declines toward 71.50 and 69.30 are possible. On the upside, if the 73.0 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 74.30 and 75.50 resistance levels.
TVC:UKOIL
by primequotes
NZD/USD Rises Ahead of Fed Decision, Reversal Risk LoomsNZD/USD has appreciated in recent trading sessions, supported by improved global risk sentiment as markets anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. However, while the New Zealand dollar has gained momentum, the outlook for the pair remains uncertain, with critical U.S. economic data expected today that could significantly impact all currency pairs trading against the U.S. dollar. Key Market Drivers: Fed and U.S. Economic News The Federal Funds Rate decision and the accompanying FOMC statement later this week are at the center of market attention. The potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve has already fueled a wave of optimism, boosting the New Zealand dollar. However, traders remain cautious as today’s U.S. economic news, including inflation and employment data, may provide critical insights into the strength of the U.S. economy ahead of the rate decision. Any significant surprises in today's economic reports could shift sentiment across all USD pairs, including NZD/USD, potentially creating increased volatility leading up to Wednesday's announcement. Technical Outlook: Overbought Conditions Raise Reversal Risk From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is currently in overbought territory, raising concerns that a reversal may be on the horizon. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a striking divergence between retail traders and institutional players. Retailers remain highly bullish on the pair, indicating optimism for continued gains. On the other hand, "smart money," represented by institutional traders, has adopted a more bearish stance, signaling caution. Given the pair’s overbought conditions and the growing divergence in trader sentiment, we have placed a pending order in anticipation of a potential reversal. This setup aligns with the COT data, where institutional positioning suggests that a pullback could be imminent. What to Watch: Fed’s Statement and Market Reaction As the week unfolds, the Federal Reserve's policy decision and statement will play a decisive role in the future trajectory of NZD/USD. A rate cut could further fuel the pair’s appreciation, but the market will closely scrutinize the Fed's tone regarding future rate cuts or tightening measures. Should the Fed take a more dovish stance, the U.S. dollar may weaken further, providing additional support for NZD/USD. Conversely, a more cautious or hawkish outlook could spark a shift in sentiment, favoring the U.S. dollar and triggering the expected reversal. Conclusion: Caution Ahead of Volatility While NZD/USD has benefited from recent risk-on sentiment, caution is warranted as the pair enters overbought territory. The ongoing divergence between retail traders and institutional investors, combined with the upcoming U.S. economic news and Fed decision, creates a complex landscape for traders. The potential for heightened volatility is high, making it essential to monitor these developments closely as the week progresses. For now, our technical indicators and market analysis suggest that a reversal may be imminent, and we are positioned accordingly with a pending order in place. However, as always, the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome will likely be the deciding factor in the pair’s near-term direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate ...EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate Decision As the first London session kicks off this morning, EUR/USD is maintaining its position above the 1.1120 level, with market participants eagerly awaiting today's Federal Funds Rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The decision is set to dominate market sentiment, with investors and traders closely watching for any signs of policy shifts or forward guidance. Current Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, not much has changed since our previous analysis. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a significant divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain overwhelmingly long on the pair, suggesting their optimism for further upside. However, "smart money," often represented by institutional traders, continues to take a bearish stance, positioning themselves for potential downside. This disparity in positioning further adds to the uncertainty surrounding EUR/USD’s near-term trajectory. As the pair trades within a daily supply zone, the potential for a bearish reversal remains on the table. The supply zone, which has acted as a resistance level, continues to cap any significant bullish advances, keeping the risk of a sharp pullback intact. Fed Decision: The Key Catalyst All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict, which could serve as the key driver for the next move in EUR/USD. The Fed's decision on interest rates, along with its forward guidance, will likely dictate the pair's direction in the coming days. A more hawkish stance from the Fed could fuel U.S. dollar strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, any dovish signals might provide the pair with a fresh catalyst for breaking through the current resistance levels. For now, EUR/USD continues to hover above 1.1120, but the looming Fed decision may be the tipping point that decides whether the pair resumes its bullish momentum or succumbs to the bearish sentiment from institutional traders. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Live Trading Recap: USD/JPY Correction Phase TradeThis is a live execution of USD/JPY trade, demonstrating how to successfully execute a counter-trend strategy. This trade was all about understanding the market phases and recognizing the trend reversal at the right moment. To pull off a counter-trend trade, you need more than just technical skills—you need a solid grasp of trading psychology. Staying patient, trusting your analysis, and managing emotions during market swings are key to making informed decisions. Watch the video to see how I combined these elements to turn this trade into a win. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
by Charts247TradingAcademy