GBPUSD - NEXT STOP @1.34343?1. MARKET OVERVIEW
GU has been on a very strong uptrend since January so i'm expecting that momentum to continue this week aiming for the old high @1.34343 which is also the Previous Year's High (PYH) and a Key Level.
2. KEY LEVELS I'M WATCHING
* Draw On Liquidity(DOL): 1.34343
* Point Of Interest(POI): 1.32411 - 1.32500
3. TRADE BIAS & SCENARIOS
I'll stick on being bullish for the rest of the week until price gets to my target which is the PYH(Previous Year High). I'll execute on my buys only if price trades to my POI before trading to my target, on the condition that price trades higher early in the week and gets to my target(without first trading to my POI) i'll cancel my trade order and switch neutral on my BIAS.
4. FINAL NOTE
Patience is key, i'll wait for price to come to me and not chase price.
Tell me what you guys think about this in the comment.
Forextrading
VIX – “Liquidity Pool Bounce & Reversal Setup”🟢 VIX – “Liquidity Pool Bounce & Reversal Setup”
📅 Date: April 22, 2025
⏰ Multi-Timeframe Analysis (12h, 1D, 1h, 30m, 5m)
🔎 Global Context:
The Volatility Index (VIX) is reacting to a clear institutional liquidity zone (blue area) across multiple timeframes (12h, 1D, 1h), aligning with a mean reversion move following the explosive rally earlier this month. We’re seeing multiple signs of a potential bullish reversal:
Previous lows + demand zone confluence
Multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) events on lower timeframes
Implied divergence from equities (not shown here, but inferred)
Strong rejection from the institutional block (26.345–26.600)
🔍 Technical Analysis & Justification:
📌 Wyckoff & Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
On 30m and 1h charts, we observe several CHoCH and BOS events suggesting a transition from redistribution into accumulation.
The latest bearish move failed to break the weak low zone (26.345), indicating a liquidity grab trap.
📌 Fibonacci & Moving Averages:
Price touched the 78.6%–88.6% retracement from the previous bullish leg.
EMAs 8/21 (Orange/Blue) are about to cross bullish on 5m and 30m – a typical trigger for a new impulsive move.
EMA200 (White) still hovers above – likely target of the first bullish push.
📌 Volume Profile (implicit):
Most of the recent consolidation occurred in the 27.00–27.40 imbalance zone, which now acts as a magnet for price during retracement.
📌 Liquidity & Order Flow Concepts:
The 26.345–26.600 range served as a Weak Low and was swept clean – classic liquidity trap behavior.
📈 Trade Parameters:
🟢 Entry (Buy): 26.795
🔒 Stop-Loss (SL): 26.345 (below last liquidity sweep)
🎯 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 27.390 (inefficiency zone + EMA200)
🎯 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 28.150 (1h/30m order block)
🧮 Risk-Reward Ratio (RR):
TP1: ~1.6
TP2: ~3.0
📊 Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High-probability setup)
🧠 Strategic Summary:
This is a classic reversal play based on liquidity absorption and structural shift (CHoCH), supported by multi-timeframe alignment. A bullish engulfing or strong reaction inside the blue zone confirms the entry bias. If price breaks above 27.00 with volume, momentum may carry it towards 28.00+ swiftly.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always manage your exposure wisely.
💬 What do you think of this setup? Do you see confluence with your strategy? Let’s discuss below! 👇
NZDCAD: Break & Retest Setup 🇳🇿🇨🇦
NZDCAD broke and closed above a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance.
We see a strong bullish reaction to that after its test
and, from a current perspective, we see that it turned into support now.
I expect a bullish continuation at least to 0.8327
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What Is the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), and How to Use ItWhat Is the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), and How to Use It in Trading?
The McClellan Oscillator is a widely used market breadth indicator that helps traders analyse momentum and market strength. It focuses on the relationship between advancing and declining stocks, offering unique insights beyond price movements. This article explains how the McClellan Oscillator works, its interpretation, and how it compares to other tools.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator?
The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator that traders use to measure momentum in stock market indices. It’s calculated based on the Advance/Decline Line, which tracks the net number of advancing stocks (those rising in price) minus declining stocks (those falling in price) over a given period.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is the most common variant, often called the NYMO indicator. However, it can also be applied to any other stock index, like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, or FTSE 100.
Here’s how it works: the indicator uses two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the advance/decline data—a 19-day EMA for short-term trends and a 39-day EMA for long-term trends. The difference between these two EMAs gives you the oscillator’s value. Positive readings mean more stocks are advancing than declining, pointing to bullish momentum. Negative readings suggest the opposite, with bearish sentiment dominating.
What makes the McClellan indicator particularly useful is its ability to highlight shifts in market momentum that might not be obvious from price movements alone. For example, even if a stock index is rising, a declining indicator could signal that fewer stocks are participating in the rally—a potential warning of weakening breadth.
This indicator is versatile and works well across various timeframes, but it’s particularly popular for analysing daily or weekly market trends. While it’s not designed to provide direct buy or sell signals, it helps traders identify when markets are gaining or losing momentum,
Understanding the Advance/Decline Line
The Advance/Decline (A/D) Line is a market breadth indicator that tracks the difference between the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks. It’s calculated cumulatively, adding each day’s net result to the previous total. This gives a running tally that reflects the broader participation of stocks in a market’s movement, rather than just focusing on a handful of large-cap stocks.
When the A/D Line shows consistent strength or weakness, the McClellan Oscillator amplifies this data, making it potentially easier to spot underlying trends in market breadth. In essence, the A/D Line provides the raw data, while the McClellan refines it into actionable insights.
How to Calculate the McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator formula effectively smooths out the daily fluctuations in the A/D data, allowing traders to focus on broader shifts in momentum.
Here’s how it’s calculated:
- Calculate the 19-day EMA of the A/D line (short-term trend).
- Calculate the 39-day EMA of the A/D line (long-term trend).
- Subtract the 39-day EMA from the 19-day EMA. The result is the McClellan Oscillator’s value.
Giving the formula:
- McClellan Oscillator = 19-day EMA of A/D - 39-day EMA of A/D
The result is a line that fluctuates around a midpoint. In practice, a trader might apply the McClellan Oscillator to the S&P 500 on a daily or weekly timeframe, providing insights for trading.
Interpretation of the Oscillator’s Values
- Positive values occur when the 19-day EMA is above the 39-day EMA, indicating that advancing stocks dominate and the market has bullish momentum.
- Negative values occur when the 19-day EMA is below the 39-day EMA, reflecting a bearish trend with declining stocks in control.
- A value near zero suggests balance, where advancing and declining stocks are roughly equal.
Signals Generated
The indicator is popular for identifying shifts in momentum and potential trend changes.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions
- Readings at or above +100 typically indicate an overbought market, where the upward momentum may be overextended.
- Readings at or below -100 suggest an oversold market, with the potential for a recovery.
Crossing Zero
When the indicator crosses above or below zero, it can indicate shifts in market sentiment, with traders often monitoring these transitions closely.
Divergences
- A positive divergence occurs when the indicator rises while the index declines, signalling potential bullish momentum building.
- A negative divergence happens when the indicator falls while the index rises, hinting at weakening momentum.
Using the McClellan Oscillator With Other Indicators
The McClellan Oscillator is a valuable tool for analysing market breadth, but its insights become even more powerful when combined with other indicators. Pairing it with complementary tools can help traders confirm signals, refine their analysis, and better understand overall market conditions.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the strength and speed of price movements, identifying overbought or oversold conditions. While the McClellan Oscillator focuses on market breadth, using RSI along with it can provide confirmation. For example, if both indicators show overbought conditions, it strengthens the case for a potential market pullback.
Moving Averages
Simple or exponential moving averages of price data can help confirm trends identified by the McClellan Oscillator. For instance, if it signals bullish momentum and the index moves above its moving average, this alignment may suggest stronger market conditions.
Volume Indicators (e.g., On-Balance Volume)
Volume is a key component of market analysis. Combining the Oscillator with volume-based indicators can clarify whether breadth signals are supported by strong participation, improving the reliability of momentum shifts.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands measure volatility and provide insight into price ranges. When combined with the McClellan Oscillator, they can help traders assess whether market breadth signals align with overextended price movements, providing additional context.
VIX (Volatility Index)
The VIX measures market sentiment and fear. Cross-referencing it with the McClellan Oscillator can reveal whether market breadth momentum aligns with changes in risk appetite, offering a deeper understanding of sentiment shifts.
Comparing the McClellan Oscillator With Related Indicators
The McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index, and Advance/Decline Ratio all provide insights into market breadth, but they differ in focus and application.
McClellan Oscillator vs McClellan Summation Index
While the Oscillator measures short-term momentum using the difference between 19-day and 39-day EMAs of the Advance/Decline (A/D) Line, the McClellan Summation Index takes a longer-term perspective. It is a cumulative total of the Oscillator's daily values, creating a broader view of market trends.
Think of the Summation Index as the "big picture" complement to the Oscillator's granular analysis. Traders often use the Summation Index to track longer-term trends and identify major turning points, while the Oscillator is more popular when monitoring immediate momentum shifts and overbought/oversold conditions.
McClellan Oscillator vs Advance/Decline Ratio
The Advance/Decline Ratio is a simpler calculation, dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks. While it provides a snapshot of market breadth, it lacks the depth of analysis offered by the McClellan Oscillator.
The Oscillator refines raw A/D data with exponential moving averages, smoothing out noise and making it potentially easier to identify meaningful trends and divergences. The A/D Ratio, on the other hand, is more reactive and generally better suited for short-term intraday signals.
Advantages and Limitations of the McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator is a powerful tool for analysing market breadth, but like any indicator, it has strengths and weaknesses. Understanding both can help traders decide how best to integrate it into their analysis.
Advantages
- Focus on Market Breadth: By analysing the Advance/Decline data, the indicator provides a clearer picture of how many stocks are participating in a trend, not just the performance of index heavyweights.
- Momentum Insights: Its ability to highlight shifts in short-term momentum allows traders to spot potential turning points before they become evident in price action.
- Identification of Divergences: It excels at identifying divergences between market breadth and price, offering early signals of weakening trends or upcoming reversals.
- Overbought/Oversold Signals: Its range helps traders analyse extreme conditions (+100/-100), which can signal potential market corrections or recoveries.
Limitations
- Not a Standalone Tool: The indicator is combined with other indicators or broader analysis, as it doesn’t provide specific entry or exit signals.
- False Signals in Volatile Markets: During periods of high volatility or low trading volume, the oscillator may generate misleading signals, making context crucial.
- Short-Term Focus: While excellent for momentum analysis, it doesn’t provide the long-term perspective offered by tools like the McClellan Summation Index.
The Bottom Line
The McClellan Oscillator is a powerful tool for analysing market breadth, helping traders gain insights into momentum and potential market shifts. While not a standalone solution, it is often combined with other indicators for a well-rounded approach.
FAQ
What Is a NYMO Oscillator?
The NYMO oscillator, short for the New York McClellan Oscillator, is a market breadth indicator based on the Advance/Decline stock data of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The NYMO index calculates the difference between a 19-day and 39-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Advance/Decline line, providing insights into stock market momentum and sentiment.
What Does the McClellan Oscillator Show?
The McClellan Oscillator shows the balance of advancing and declining stocks in a market. Positive values indicate bullish momentum, while negative values reflect bearish sentiment. It’s often used to identify potential shifts in momentum or divergences between market breadth and price.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator in MACD?
The McClellan Oscillator and MACD are distinct indicators, but both use moving averages. While MACD measures price momentum, the Oscillator focuses on market breadth by analysing the Advance/Decline Line.
What Is the McClellan Summation Indicator?
The McClellan Summation Index is a cumulative version of the McClellan Oscillator. It provides a broader view of market trends, tracking long-term momentum and overall market strength.
What Is the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator?
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator, sometimes called the NAMO, applies the same calculation as the NYMO but uses Advance/Decline data from the Nasdaq exchange. It helps traders analyse momentum and breadth in technology-heavy markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/USD Neutral, AUD/USD Neutral and EUR/AUD (Trade Recap)EUR/USD Neutral
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
AUD/USD Neutral
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
EURGBP: Gap is Going to Be Filled! 🇪🇺🇬🇧
I see a nice gap up opening on EURGBP.
After a strong up movement, the pair finally
leaves strong bearish clues.
I see a bearish breakout of a neckline of a head & shoulders pattern
on an hourly time frame after a test of a key intraday resistance.
It looks to me that the price is going to drop and fill the gap.
Goals: 0.8582 / 0.8567
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GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
GBPUSD has reached a resistance zone, where a correction is expected.
We anticipate a pullback toward the specified support level, which could act as a launchpad for the next bullish move.
After completing the correction, the pair is expected to resume its upward movement toward the specified targets.
Will GBPUSD use the pullback as a springboard for further gains? Share your thoughts below!
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EUR/USD Short, AUD/USD Short and EUR/AUD Short (Trade Recap)EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Corrective tap into area of value.
• 4H risk entry or 1H risk entry after 2 x 1H rejection candles.
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
USDCAD: Bullish Outlook & Pullback From Support 🇺🇸🇨🇦
There is a high chance that USDCAD will turn bullish after the market opening.
I spotted a strong bullish confirmation after a test of a key intraday/daily support.
A triple bottom formation and a breakout of its neckline provide a reliable
bullish signal.
Probability will be high that the price will bounce at least to 1.3676 level.
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EUR/NZD Short, GBP/USD Long, AUD/USD Short and GBP/AUD ShortEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Corrective tap into area of value.
• 4H risk entry or 1H risk entry after 2 x 1H rejection candles.
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Corrective tap into area of value.
• 4H risk entry or 1H risk entry after 2 x 1H rejection candles.
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Corrective tap into area of value.
• 4H risk entry or 1H risk entry after 2 x 1H rejection candles.
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
EURUSD: 4H holding and is pushing for the next High. The EURUSD pair is bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 58.651, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 20.500) as despite turning sideways since last Friday, the price remains over the 4H MA50 and inside the short term Channel Up. As long as those hold, we anticipate a new bullish wave of at least 5%, like the previous one. Aim for the top of the Channel Up (TP = 1.1800).
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GBPUSD: Intraday Bullish Move Ahead! 🇬🇧🇺🇸
I see 2 strong intraday price action signals
on GBPUSD on an hourly time frame.
The price formed a double bottom pattern after a test of the underlined support.
Its neckline and a resistance line of a falling channel were broken
with London session opening.
We can expect a bullish continuation now.
Goal - 1.3271
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EUR/NZD: Bullish Structure Intact After Pullback to Key SupportThe EUR/NZD pair has completed an ABC pullback toward the support zone and channel boundary, recently bouncing off the psychological level at 1.91000, which has shown to be a significant area of strength.
On higher timeframes, the market continues to post higher highs and higher closes, confirming a bullish long-term trend. While the recent retracement suggests a possible consolidation phase, the price is expected to retest at least 50% of the pullback range, with potential to climb even higher. If it holds above the 1.9000–1.9100 support zone, the probability of a resumed upward move remains strong. The next target is the resistance zone around 1.96700
USDCHF: Your Next Bearish Signal 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF is consolidating after a massive selloff that we saw last week.
The price formed inside bar candlestick pattern and is currently
stuck within the range of the mother's bar.
Your next confirmation to sell will be a violation and a candle close
below 0.8098.
With a high probability, the pair will continue falling then
and reach at least 0.8 psychological level.
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AUDJPY: Bearish Move From Resistance Confirmed 🇦🇺🇯🇵
There is a high chance that AUDJPY will continue retracing
from the underlined intraday/daily resistance.
As a confirmation, I see a breakout of a neckline of a double top pattern
and a violation of a support line of a rising channel.
With a high probability, the price will retrace at least to 89.9 level.
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Wed 16th Apr 2025 GBP/JPY Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/JPY Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
USDCHFHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USD/CHF?
On the weekly timeframe, USD/CHF has broken below a major support zone that has acted as a key reversal area multiple times over the past two years. This support zone, has now been clearly breached. Additionally, price has also fallen below the long-term ascending trendline, signaling a potential shift in market structure.
A corrective move (pullback) back toward the broken support zone is expected, after which the pair is likely to resume its downtrend.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Bearish Continuation Setup in AUD/JPYThe AUD/JPY pair is nearing a retest of the previous month's low, following a recent breakdown from a triangle consolidation pattern. This move also saw price fall beneath an ascending trendline, forming a decisive bearish impulse leg.
Currently, the market is in a pullback phase, which may offer a potential shorting opportunity—particularly if a bearish signal emerges. On the daily timeframe, the broader trend remains bearish, adding weight to the likelihood of further downside.
A false breakout above the previous week's high would add further confirmation to the bearish outlook. Should this setup unfold, a continuation lower is expected, with a probable break below the 90.000 support level. The next key support zone is identified around 88.510
Tue 15th Apr 2025 AUD/CHF Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a AUD/CHF Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Tue 15th Apr 2025 GBP/CAD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/CAD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
USDCADHello Traders!
What are your thoughts on USD/CAD?
After its recent decline, USD/CAD has reached the bottom of the descending channel and a key support zone.
This area may act as a strong support, and we expect a bullish reaction from here.
We anticipate a bounce from this support zone, with the price potentially rising at least toward the specified target level.
Will USD/CAD hold the support and rebound, or break lower? Share your thoughts below!
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️