XAU will continue to rise in the coming timeThe market is expecting an 84.9% chance that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points at its November meeting.
Some other experts also expect gold prices to continue to rise in the coming time due to global economic and geopolitical instability. Despite the pressure from fluctuating US interest rates and geopolitical tensions, the precious metal remains a safe choice for long-term investors.
Forextrading
Gold cross 2700 slowly but surely read the caption Gold price is looking to build on the previous recovery from three-week lows of $2,604 early Friday. Broad risk aversion and a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick support Gold price heading into the US Producer Price Index (CPI) data release due later on Friday.
US jobs worries outweigh hot inflation, lifting Gold price
Gold price continues to cheer the unfazed odds of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Markets currently price in about an 86% chance of such a move next month
Fri 11th Oct 2024 GBP/CAD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/CAD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
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EURJPY: Well supported on the 1W MA100 but needs more to rise.EURJPY is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.394, MACD = 0.690, ADX = 37.501), practically neutral as it's been ranging between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. The long term pattern is a Channel Up since 2021 and the recent 1W MA100 test is the new bottom (HL) of the pattern. The 1W MA50-100 consolidation is the bottom formation and even though it's encouraging we need a crossing over the 1W MA50 in order to validate the new rise. Technically it should be around +18.70% like the previous two. Set your target accordingly (TP = 183.500).
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EURUSD: Dollar holds steady as Fed minutes emergeThe US dollar remained steady today, providing some respite for the yen and other major currencies after rising to a seven-week high last week. Market participants are taking a moment to assess the future trajectory of US interest rates.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting today, which will reveal the discussions that led to a 50 basis point rate cut, agreed by all but one policymaker amid a seemingly worsening labour market.
NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
GBPUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 1.3091
Stop Loss: 1.3170 (80 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 1.2970 (120 pips below entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
GBP/USD faces increasing downward pressure as the U.K. economy remains fragile, while the U.S. dollar benefits from its relative strength. This trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in light of these macroeconomic factors.
Gold prices plummet after CPI newsGold is currently trading around $2,608 an ounce, down 1.7% this week. This is largely due to rising US Treasury yields, which have dampened expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points.
Minutes of the Fed's recent meeting showed that Chairman Jerome Powell faced some opposition to the rate cut in September. Some officials expressed that the rate cut should be smaller than the 50 basis points. Separately, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Wednesday that monetary policy easing should be done at a slower pace after last month's cut.
Markets are awaiting CPI data due later Thursday. If inflation continues to decline, this will support the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near future.
XAU plummetsGold prices also fell due to profit-taking pressure after the precious metal surged and set a record high at the end of last month. The price drop is inevitable, even if gold is in a long-term uptrend.
Previously, gold was forecast to increase in price until at least mid-2025 following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trend. The Fed began its interest rate cut cycle in mid-September and signaled that it would cut interest rates until 2026. This also means that pressure will be placed on the USD. Gold will benefit.
However, the USD has recently turned around after a sharp decline. Investors are worried that the Fed will not continue to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at its November meeting, but may only cut by 0.25 points when the US economy is still quite strong.
AUDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6727
Stop Loss: 0.6800 (73 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.6600 (127 pips below entry, offering a 1.7:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
With global risk-off sentiment growing and commodity prices showing signs of weakness, AUD/USD could face further downside pressure. This setup capitalizes on potential bearish momentum, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
USDMXN: Short Term BuyEntry: 19.4600
Stop Loss: 19.3000 (160 pips below entry)
Take Profit: 19.7000 (240 pips above entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning: The Mexican peso has been showing signs of weakening, while the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. This trend suggests that USD/MXN could continue its upward movement, providing a potential buying opportunity.
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600).
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USDCAD Short (2)USDCAD sell short as from my previous post spiked a bit before today's US FOMC news we are expecting at 2:00 PM EST. I have placed another short for USDCAD since we are phasing a major bull trend that has been building up for weeks prior to this news. I suggest placing in a short sell NOW prior to any news events occurring.
ENTRY: 1.36880
TP 1: 1.35843
TP 2: 1.35345
TP 3: 1.34797
SL: 25-30 PIPS from your entry
Please message me if you have any questions about this trade! Please enjoy your day and be sure to boost this post, follow this page, and comment what you want the next trade analysis to be! Thanks again from Aventura Holdings!
GBPUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important support and resistance levels on GBPUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.3235 - 1.3266 area
Resistance 2: 1.3312 - 1.3322 area
Resistance 3: 1.3414 - 1.3434 area
Support 1: 1.3000 - 1.3043 area
Support 2: 1.2860 - 1.2888 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD sell confirm signal Gold price extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive trading day on Wednesday. The precious metal has been battered by the upbeat US Dollar, which has strengthened as traders are pricing out another Fed larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 bps in their next meeting in November.
Gold price extends losing spell amid upbeat US Dollar ahead of FOMC Minutes
Gold now sell 2621
Support 2600
Resistance 2640
FOMC Target
GBPJPY: Bullish Movement Ahead of FOMC 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY has a perfect potential to continue growing before the FOMC minutes today.
The price started to consolidate after a test of a rising trend on a 4H
and violated its neckline then.
The price will most likely heading towards 195.1 level now.
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Eurusd confirm buy trendline read the caption EUR/USD skates on thin ice near the eight-week low of 1.0950 in Wednesday’s European session. The major currency pair stays under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gathers strength to extend its previous week’s rally further, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near a seven-week high around 102.60.
The appeal of the US Dollar has strengthened as traders have priced out expectations for the Federal Reserve
Gold move range higher read the caption Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report and that could be a catalyst for either a rally or a selloff. If we get an upside surprise in the data, then we will likely see new lows in gold. Conversely, a very soft report might trigger another rally and take us to a new all-time high
Slightly Bullish Bias Expected on GBPUSD today 09/10/2024.GBPUSD Analysis for 09/10/2024: Slightly Bullish Bias Expected
In today's analysis of GBPUSD, the currency pair is showing signs of a potential slightly bullish bias based on the latest fundamental factors and current market conditions. As of 09/10/2024, several key drivers are influencing the market, pointing toward a moderate upside for the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). Here's a breakdown of the fundamental and technical factors that could contribute to this outlook.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Bullish Bias
1. Improved UK Economic Data
Recent data from the UK, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and services, have shown resilience despite broader global economic challenges. The UK Services PMI reported a higher-than-expected reading, signaling growth in the sector, which is a positive indicator for GBP. Additionally, consumer confidence in the UK has remained relatively stable, offering further support to the Pound.
2. Bank of England (BoE) Policy Outlook
The Bank of England's latest statements suggest that while inflation remains a concern, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach to tightening. This is in contrast to the more aggressive stance of the Federal Reserve, which is already priced into the market. A less hawkish BoE stance could provide upward pressure on GBPUSD, especially if traders believe the BoE may slow down rate hikes earlier than anticipated.
3. US Dollar Weakness
On the other side of the pair, the US Dollar has shown signs of weakness amid lower-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data released last Friday. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate hikes, dampening demand for the USD. The weakening US Dollar adds to the bullish bias for GBPUSD.
Technical Outlook for GBPUSD on 09/10/2024
- Support and Resistance Levels
GBPUSD is currently trading near key support at 1.2150, with the next major resistance level around 1.2250. If the pair breaks above this resistance, it could signal further upside potential, reinforcing the slightly bullish outlook for the day.
- Moving Averages
On the technical side, the 50-day Moving Average (MA) is gradually turning upwards, indicating positive momentum for the pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering near the neutral 50 level, suggesting that there is room for further gains before the pair becomes overbought.
Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment
- Global Risk Sentiment
Market sentiment has leaned slightly towards risk-on, with investors showing a renewed appetite for riskier assets such as equities. This shift has seen traders pull back from the safe-haven USD, benefiting risk-sensitive currencies like GBP. As long as global geopolitical tensions remain stable and there are no major risk-off events, the Pound could continue to benefit.
Conclusion
In conclusion, based on the current economic landscape, GBPUSD is showing signs of a slight bullish bias on 09/10/2024. Key drivers such as positive UK economic data, a potentially cautious BoE, and a weakening US Dollar are aligning to support an upside move in the pair. However, traders should remain cautious and watch for any unexpected shifts in global market sentiment or central bank policies that could impact this outlook.
For those looking to trade GBPUSD today, it may be worth considering potential entry points around the 1.2150 support level, targeting the 1.2250 resistance, with appropriate risk management strategies in place.
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Gold fell sharply after no news from the fedThe positive economic data recently released has caused investors to take profits on gold, shifting their investments to profitable assets such as stocks. Investors are also selling gold because today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of last month's meeting.
The employment report and positive economic data, investors expect the report will also have a positive assessment of the economy, as well as the interest rate policy may remain unchanged so that the Federal Reserve can maintain the conditions to bring inflation to the target of 2%.
XAU drops sharply without any newsThe USD continues to surprise the market when it has increased quite strongly in recent sessions. Along with that, countries are also lowering interest rates and looking for ways to support the weakened economy after the pandemic and the instability of production chains as well as reduced consumer demand around the world.
The price of gold rings in basic units remains the same in both buying and selling directions compared to the previous session.
According to technical analysis, the indexes reaching 50 points are an expansion level. However, at the time of assessment, consumers are more optimistic than last month, showing a positive trend, they will buy more goods and services, which will boost domestic demand, stimulate businesses and the economy to grow better.