Market Overview Part 27Me Going Over My Blue Jay Strategy And My Robin Trap Strategy In Deep Detail. And Going Over My Trades This Week So Far!
Forextrading
Gold prices decreased for two consecutive sessionsGold prices continued to decline on Thursday, although remaining around the old peak of $2,450. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around 2,444 USD, down more than 1.5% from its peak of 2,483 USD due to the greenback's recovery, supported by rising US government bond yields.
Jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that more people than expected applied for unemployment benefits, signaling a slowing economy. This, along with last week's string of data showing inflation moving toward the 2% target, could prompt a change in stance from Fed policymakers.
The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims increased more than expected last week, but according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, the labor market did not change significantly.
Finally, Fed officials have expressed that the central bank may be "getting closer" to lowering interest rates as inflation and recession risks have become more balanced. Still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the Fed should not rush to cut interest rates until the end of 2024.
XAUUSD : Will falling gold create strong momentum in the future?XAU/USD has fallen for two consecutive sessions since hitting a new peak at $2,483, suggesting traders are taking profits after gaining more than 8.0% in the past three weeks.
In the medium term, the general trend is still up, but the RSI indicator on the daily chart is turning down, showing that investors are somewhat cautious as the gold price gets closer to the 2,500 USD mark. In the short term, XAU/USD may continue to fall deeply if it does not quickly regain the $2,450 mark.
If selling pressure remains overwhelming, gold prices may move towards the July 5 high at $2,392 after breaking through the $2,400 mark and then the $2,350 mark. On the contrary, if XAU/USD successfully surpasses 2,490 USD, conquering the 2,500 USD mark is completely feasible.
Gold is falling after creating a record for itselfGold prices continued to decline on Thursday, although remaining around the old peak of $2,450. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around 2,444 USD, down more than 1.5% from its peak of 2,483 USD due to the greenback's recovery, supported by rising US government bond yields.
Jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that more people than expected applied for unemployment benefits, signaling a slowing economy. This, along with last week's string of data showing inflation moving toward the 2% target, could prompt a change in stance from Fed policymakers.
The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims increased more than expected last week, but according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, the labor market did not change significantly.
Finally, Fed officials have expressed that the central bank may be "getting closer" to lowering interest rates as inflation and recession risks have become more balanced. Still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the Fed should not rush to cut interest rates until the end of 2024.
In the context of extremely increased expectations of interest rate cuts in September, gold prices reached a new all-time high of 2,483 USD, but demand could not maintain the upward momentum as a part of investors moved forward. take profit. This, along with former US President Donald Trump's announcement of imposing at least 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, has boosted the flow of money back to the USD.
The DXY index, which tracks the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, rose 0.43% to 104.18. Besides, US government bond yields also increased on many terms. Typically, the 10-year term reached 4.187%, an increase of more than 2.5 bps.
Gold retreated from the peakGold prices have dropped more than 1.5% from the peak of 2,483 USD/ounce. US unemployment claims exceeded forecasts, showing the economy is slowing and strengthening the case for interest rate cuts. DXY index increased 0.43% to 104.18; 10-year US government bond yield increased 2.5 bps to 4,187%.
In the context of extremely increased expectations of interest rate cuts in September, gold prices reached a new all-time high of 2,483 USD, but demand could not maintain the upward momentum as a part of investors moved forward. take profit. This, along with former US President Donald Trump's announcement of imposing at least 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, has boosted the flow of money back to the USD.
CADJPY 15-Minute ChartThe red highlighted area at the top indicates a resistance zone where the price has repeatedly failed to break higher.
This suggests strong selling pressure at this level.
The recent price action shows a potential bearish trend.
Given the repeated failure to break above the resistance zone and the projected downward movement, market sentiment appears bearish for CADJPY in the short term.
Consider entering a short position around the current price level or upon confirmation of a downward move from the resistance zone.
Targets would be the support levels at 114.708 and 114.098.
Ensure proper risk management by sizing the position appropriately and setting stop losses.
AUDUSD: One More Buying Opportunity 🇦🇺🇺🇸
I see one more buying opportunity on AUDUSD.
This time the price formed a double bottom formation
after a test of an intraday support.
I think that the pair may bounce to 0.675 level.
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Gold is looking for new peaks for itselfIn his latest speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell once again expressed a dovish stance, but it could go in either direction. As has been pointed out many times, gold appears to be very sensitive, with just the slightest impact being able to push gold prices to new record highs in any given week.
Robert Minter, Chief Strategy Officer of abrdn, said that inflation is only half the reason for this price increase, the other half is the weakness of the economy.
"There is a basis to cut interest rates in September. If you look at the current high level of consumer debt, even a little pressure on the labor market can cause serious problems for the economy. I don't think we're going to see a recession, but it all depends on the Fed. They're a little late, but it's not too late to do something."
Despite supposedly positive economic data, economic optimism seems increasingly foolish. We supposedly avoided a Volcker recession, but have we really? Or is the media downplaying how bad the real situation is? Could a devastating recession begin after the Fed starts lowering interest rates?
That's often what happens, as Ryan McMaken warns us - the reason "soft landings" are so elusive is simply because they're impossible,
"But there are two problems with the "soft landing" story: The first is that the Fed has never done this in the past 45 years. Normally, the Fed denies a recession until it happens. Then, the Fed reduces Interest rates on unemployment have begun to rise."
The market has high expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates. The CME FedWatch tool shows an over 90% probability of this happening. According to expert Carsten Fritsch, the market is predicting that the Fed will reduce interest rates in September and may reduce it again before the end of the year.
Based on these, Fritsch thinks gold has all the elements to test and could surpass record highs this week. And all of this is still in the short term.
As we approach the end of the year, gold will exit its weakest quarter and enter the election cycle, a period that is expected to be turbulent even by the standards of the past twenty years.
The dynamics driving gold prices are changing, and investors should stay one step ahead.
In the latest report, Incrementum AG's Ronald Stoeferle notes that gold investors should pay attention to the changes driving the gold market. (This is not to say that the old factors are disappearing. Inflation and currency depreciation will still ensure gold's appeal, and any discussion of safe investments must include Yellow.)
XAUUSD : Gold is at its historic peakWorld gold prices continue to climb and are at a historic peak due to the further weakening of the USD.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is betting on a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on September 18.
Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that recently released data "increases confidence" that inflation is falling sustainably toward the Fed's target level.
Many Fed policymakers also said they are increasingly optimistic that price inflation is on track and falling toward the 2% target mark.
GBP/CHF Long and USD/CAD ShortGBP/CHF Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/USD on a 15-minute timeframeThe blue highlighted area around the 0.67253-0.67288 level represents a strong support zone.
The price has tested this area multiple times and shown a tendency to bounce back from it.
The current price is around 0.67288-0.67276, which is near the support zone.
The resistance level is marked around 0.67547, indicating a potential target for the bullish move.
The projection indicates a potential bullish move from the support zone up to the resistance level around 0.67547. This suggests an expectation of a price increase after possibly forming a base around the support.
Consider entering a long position around the current price level (0.67288) or slightly lower, closer to the support zone (0.67253).
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop losses and monitoring key levels for any invalidation of the bullish scenario.
USDCAD trade ideaUSDCAD was moving in an uptrend respecting the upward channel but then broke out and had a change of direction. having broken structure and below the support we anticipate a further movement to the downside
XAU is in a period of sky-high pricesDirector of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress last week appeared to be the turning point that the market has been waiting for for a long time.
During a two-day hearing on Capitol Hill, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that risks to the economy now hang in the balance. "Rising inflation is not the only risk we face," Mr. Powell emphasized in prepared remarks.
Immediately after these comments, gold prices held the $2,400 support level and even surpassed the peak of the two-month accumulation period. The August gold futures contract set a new record at a price of 2,470.20 USD/oz.
This breakthrough took place in the context that the market was almost completely confident that the Fed would reduce interest rates in September.
The Fed shifted its focus away from inflationThere are many other credit products on the market that now have higher interest rates than before. All of this shows that the strength of the economy is declining. Even a little stress in the labor market can cause serious problems.
The Fed still has a chance to avoid a recession, which is why gold has so much potential.
There are a lot of risks and the Fed is running a little late, but they're not irreparable," he said. "This is why a rate cut in September is almost certain. Because the Fed is lagging behind, they will have to take stronger and quicker measures to keep up with the situation
Looking at the last three interest rate cycles, gold rose 57% in 2000, but silver rose 65%. Similarly, in 2006, gold increased by 235% while silver increased by 318%. And most recently, at the end of 2018, gold increased by 69% while silver increased by 101%. Silver is more volatile than gold
GOLD : Gold is increasing fearfullyIn an interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Chief Investment Strategist at abrdn, said that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress last week appears to be the turning point the market has been waiting for. long time ago.
During a two-day hearing on Capitol Hill, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that risks to the economy now hang in the balance. "Rising inflation is not the only risk we face," Mr. Powell emphasized in prepared remarks.
Immediately after these comments, gold prices held the $2,400 support level and even surpassed the peak of the two-month accumulation period. The August gold futures contract set a new record at a price of 2,470.20 USD/oz.
This breakthrough took place in the context that the market was almost completely confident that the Fed would reduce interest rates in September.
Mr. Robert Minter, Director of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said he was not surprised by Powell and the Fed shifting their focus away from inflation. He noted that rising consumer debt in a high interest rate environment could pose significant risks to the economy.
XAUUSD : Gold is heading towards new heightsThe daily chart shows that gold still has room to expand its upward momentum. XAU/USD is trading significantly above all SMAs, which are steeply sloping up. At the same time, technical indicators are also increasing rapidly, moving deeper into the overbought zone but showing no signs of slowing down.
Based on the H4 frame, gold is in the overbought zone in the short term, but the possibility of a downward adjustment is still unclear. The 20 SMA is strongly sloping up, providing dynamic support around $2,420. The two SMA lines 100 and 200 are also following and pointing up. Finally, the Momentum indicator maintained an uptrend at a high level, but the RSI indicator entered the overbought zone and showed signs of slowing down. Therefore, gold may be under some short-term profit-taking pressure before contemplating the next increase. Potential support levels are $2,448, 2,435, and $2,422, respectively. Conversely, the next resistance levels to watch out for are $2,480 and $2,500.
Market Overview Part 26Me going Over My Whole Robin Trap Strategy In Fine Detail You Must Listen To All 26 Videos!!!
Looking for USDJPY Set UpsLooking for potential set ups for UJ buys/sells. I was bearish a few days ago with my analysis and profited over 150 on that amazing drop that all JPY pairs dropped into. However, we could be in for a mini reversal until when we see the support trend potentially break. Rising wedge is looking like we can take a possible bearish move in the future.
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EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it.
XAUUSD M15 - Long Signal XAUUSD M15
Here is the signal update from yesterday, we have seen a maximum of 2.1R so far, currently in active play of 1.75R. We have banked partials and we are holding the remaining 50% position risk free. I'm hoping this setup has plenty more mileage in it.
Last week, we caught an amazing long position from a key area of support. And this position continued to rise a huge 530 points, it would be great to see something similar materialise here
At this point, a rate cut in September looks very likely.A range of critical financial reviews can be launched via way of means of americaA this week. Experts expect that the gold marketplace will now no longer alternate an awful lot after those reviews.
However, the fashion of gold continues to be at the upward push because of expectancies that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) will loosen economic coverage whilst the June customer charge index file is published.
FxPro senior marketplace analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the reality that gold nonetheless continues the $2,400/ounce mark is a superb sign. He stated that presently the indicators displaying the opportunity of hobby charge cuts via way of means of the Fed have become clearer.
In any other analysis, gold is likewise expected to boom sharply via way of means of experts. Accordingly, worries approximately instability earlier than and after elections in many nations round the arena will guide the upward push of gold, pushing valuable metallic expenses to new records.
The world XAU trading price is sky-highA number of important economic reports will be released by the US this week. Experts predict that the gold market will not change much after these reports.
However, the trend of gold is still on the rise due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will loosen monetary policy when the June consumer price index report is published.
FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that the fact that gold still maintains the $2,400/ounce mark is a good sign. He said that currently the signals showing the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Fed are becoming clearer.
In another analysis, gold is also predicted to increase sharply by experts. Accordingly, concerns about instability before and after elections in many countries around the world will support the rise of gold, pushing precious metal prices to new records.
