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NZD/USD Approaches Resistance: Are Shorts the Next Move?The NZD/USD pair has reached a key supply area around 0.6168, which coincides with a significant resistance zone on the daily timeframe. This area has attracted attention due to the confluence of several technical and fundamental factors. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders are increasingly taking long positions in the pair, while fund managers are moving in the opposite direction, positioning themselves short. Additionally, commercial traders, who typically represent larger institutional players, are beginning to reduce their long positions, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. This shift aligns with broader market indicators, including seasonality patterns and oscillator readings, which both support the case for a potential short setup. The seasonality analysis indicates a period of historical weakness for the NZD/USD pair, while oscillators suggest that the recent upward momentum may be losing steam. Given these factors, the supply area around 0.6168 presents a compelling opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a potential downward move. The combination of technical resistance, COT positioning, and seasonal trends all point towards a possible short setup in the near term. As always, traders should monitor these levels closely and consider risk management strategies to navigate the evolving market conditions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Soars to 2024 Highs as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsThe EUR/USD pair extended its rally for the fourth consecutive day, reaching new 2024 highs around 1.1170. This surge has been fueled by continued weakness in the US Dollar (USD), which has been under pressure as market sentiment shifts. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD’s strength against a basket of major currencies, fell below the critical 101.00 level for the first time since December 2023. This decline was exacerbated by the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair bypassed its first supply area without a significant rebound and is now approaching the second supply zone, a key area where a potential sell reversal is being closely monitored. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting divergence: retail traders remain bullish on the pair, while commercial traders and large funds appear to be positioning themselves for a move in the opposite direction. The likelihood of a rate cut has been a focal point for traders. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows nearly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point reduction at the Fed's September 18 meeting, a slight decrease from around 70% the previous day. Despite the FOMC Minutes supporting the possibility of lower rates as early as next month, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman urged caution, suggesting that rate reductions should be gradual if inflation aligns with the Fed’s 2% target. Her comments indicate a desire to avoid an overly restrictive monetary policy that could stifle economic growth. Should the Fed opt for more substantial rate cuts, the policy gap between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) could narrow in the medium to long term. This convergence may further support the EUR/USD pair, particularly as market participants expect the ECB to implement two additional rate cuts this year. Such a scenario could provide additional upward momentum for the EUR/USD, pushing it even higher in the coming months.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
XAU price forecast to continue risingkeep an eye on the Fed's next moves The initial jobless claims report and S&P Global PMI data will provide further signals on the health of the US economy. Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 17 are expected to rise to 230K, up slightly from 227K last week. Services activity is expected to contract slightly, while the manufacturing PMI is expected to be flat. The first resistance level for XAU/USD to conquer is the $2,550 area, followed by the $2,600 mark. However, if gold fails to hold above $2,500, key support levels will be at $2,483 (July 17 high), followed by $2,450 (May 20 high). In a stronger bearish scenario, deeper support could be the 50-day simple moving average at $2,395.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU continues to rise and hit a recordGold resumed its losses today and hovered near an all-time high after minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed officials were strongly inclined to cut interest rates at their September policy meeting. "Gold has the potential to move higher but not accelerate sharply without any unexpected events to spur it," Tai Wong added. "Gold prices closed higher after minutes from the Fed meeting showed 'majority' of the committee is ready to cut interest rates in September"
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
USD/CHF Stabilizes Near 0.8520 as Markets Eye FOMC MinutesDuring Wednesday's European session, the USD/CHF pair found a temporary support level near 0.8520, pausing its downward momentum after three consecutive days of losses. The Swiss Franc has managed to stabilize as the US Dollar (USD) regains some strength following its recent drop to a seven-month low. The market atmosphere remains calm as traders and investors shift their focus to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the July meeting. These minutes are expected to provide key insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) thinking, particularly regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in the near future. From a technical standpoint, the USD/CHF pair has returned to a significant demand zone, where a trade position has already been established. The current price action suggests a potential pullback, hinting at a possible upward movement. Supporting this outlook, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a divergence in market sentiment: retail traders are predominantly bearish, while commercial traders, including large funds and money managers, appear to be increasing their positions, indicating a potential shift in market trends. As the week unfolds, market participants will be closely monitoring any new developments that could influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts in September and by the end of the year. The Fed, having kept rates steady in July within the 5.25%-5.50% range, has left the door open for potential rate reductions, which could drive further market movements as more economic data emerges. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCHF in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CHF Stabilizes Near 0.8520 as Markets Eye FOMC MinutesDuring Wednesday's European session, the USD/CHF pair found a temporary support level near 0.8520, pausing its downward momentum after three consecutive days of losses. The Swiss Franc has managed to stabilize as the US Dollar (USD) regains some strength following its recent drop to a seven-month low. The market atmosphere remains calm as traders and investors shift their focus to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the July meeting. These minutes are expected to provide key insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) thinking, particularly regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in the near future. From a technical standpoint, the USD/CHF pair has returned to a significant demand zone, where a trade position has already been established. The current price action suggests a potential pullback, hinting at a possible upward movement. Supporting this outlook, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a divergence in market sentiment: retail traders are predominantly bearish, while commercial traders, including large funds and money managers, appear to be increasing their positions, indicating a potential shift in market trends. As the week unfolds, market participants will be closely monitoring any new developments that could influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts in September and by the end of the year. The Fed, having kept rates steady in July within the 5.25%-5.50% range, has left the door open for potential rate reductions, which could drive further market movements as more economic data emerges. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCHF in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
XAU all time highGold prices were little changed this morning, the USD weakened and investors increasingly believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in September. "The main driver of the rise in gold prices has been financial investment demand, especially as ETF buying has improved and overall sentiment has improved on expectations of a Fed easing cycle starting in September." holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to a seven-month high of 859 tonnes on August 19.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
EUR/USD: Bullish Outlook with Key TargetsHey there, looking at the FOREXCOM:EURUSD chart on a 10-day timeframe, it’s clear that the price has been stuck in a range for almost two years. Right now, the price has broken through its 7-month high and is currently trading around 1.011. Personally, I have a bullish outlook for both the medium and long term. ⏩I anticipate that the price could rise toward mid-term targets of 1.11500 and 1.12800. After that, I expect the price to potentially continue its upward movement towards long-term targets of 1.14 and the Bearish Breaker Block at 1.15, especially if it breaks above the 1.12800 high. To fully understand the ongoing trend, it will be important to observe how the price reacts to the mid-term targets. 💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions! Happy trading!✌😎 Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
Long
by SasanSeifi
USD/JPY Pulls Back to 146.33 Amid Rising Yen and Fed Rate CutThe Japanese Yen is gaining ground against the US Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair pulling back to 146.33 as I write this. This upward movement is fueled by Japan's second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which exceeded expectations and bolstered the case for a potential near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Despite this, the USD/JPY pair has found support from a stronger US Dollar, buoyed by rising Treasury yields. From a technical standpoint, the price is currently retesting our identified Demand area, where we’ve already initiated a long position. Retail traders remain bearish, while commercial traders are starting to increase their positions. The recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has sparked discussions about the scale of the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut in September. The market is leaning towards a modest 25 basis point reduction, with a 60% probability, although a larger 50 basis point cut remains a possibility, with a 36% chance according to CME FedWatch. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDJPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD: Key Supply Zones to Watch for Potential ReversalsThe EUR/USD pair has extended its upward momentum, reaching new highs for 2024, currently hovering around 1.1077 as I write this. This surge is largely attributed to the persistent weakness in the US Dollar (USD), which has been on the back foot in recent sessions. Expectations around the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release have shifted market sentiment. While there was initial speculation of a half-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, the chances of such a significant cut have diminished. Instead, a more modest rate reduction now seems more likely, especially in light of better-than-anticipated outcomes from other critical US economic indicators. Looking forward, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes is anticipated to be the key event this week. However, market participants will also keep a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the testimony of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda before Parliament. These events could offer further insights into the future direction of monetary policies, influencing the USD and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has approached a critical Supply area, where we observe a significant concentration of retail traders maintaining long positions, while commercial players have reduced their exposure. Given the current sideways market conditions, this Supply zone could be pivotal. A reversal may occur here, leading to a potential decline in the pair. However, if the price does not reverse at this level, the next key Supply area to watch would be around 1.1175. This level could become the next focal point for traders looking to identify potential turning points in the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
XAU receives strong support from USDWeaker USD Supports Strong XAU Gains XAU is currently at an all-time high Although gold has since been hit by a wave of profit-taking from investors, the decline in the USD is providing positive support and halting the decline in the precious metal. Traders are now looking ahead to the annual Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting that begins later this week. In previous years, central bank officials have made market-moving statements at the meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the meeting on Thursday morning.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
Xauusd long Target Gold retreats after setting a new record high of $2,500 Gold stages a technical correction and trades below $2,490 after setting a new record high of $2,500 earlier in the day, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields. Profit-taking could ramp up the volatility heading into the weekend. Gold is pulling back from the range ceiling it was pushing up against for most of the earlier part of the week. The short-term trend is probably sideways and, given “the trend is your friend”, is more likely than not to extend in that direction – oscillating within its range. Gold appears to have begun a fresh down leg within the range. It will probably now move down to $2,400, perhaps even reaching the range floor in the $2,390s. Due to the fact the range is tapering slightly, it might also be seen as a triangle pattern in the latter stages of development. A break below $2,432 (August 15 lows) would help provide additional bearish confirmation the down leg was evolving. Gold now sell 2506 Target 2495 Target 2480 Target 2450 SL 2530
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JohnHarry_7
XAU surges despite positive news for DXYThe drop in jobless claims suggests the US economy is recovering well, which further strengthens the case for a lower-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The precious metal, which has been under pressure from the sell-off earlier this week, was further weighed down by the latest inflation report, which dampened market optimism about a September monetary policy pivot. The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, compared to a 2.9% increase in the same month last year, according to the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York, said that a September rate cut was a certainty. However, the latest data disappointed the market by reinforcing the case for a 25 basis point cut, instead of the expected 50 basis points.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicoTradingMaster
EUR/USD Approaches Key Supply Area Amid U.S. CPI DataThe EUR/USD is nearing a significant supply area around 1.10500, with the pair currently showing signs of being overbought. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report highlights that retail traders are largely bullish on the pair, adding to the potential for a correction. The focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is likely to play a crucial role in determining the pair's next move. Market expectations suggest that on a yearly basis, the CPI will rise by 2.9%, slightly down from the 3% recorded in June. The core CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, is anticipated to increase by 3.2% annually. On a monthly basis, both the headline CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.2%. Should the monthly core CPI, a key indicator that removes base effects and volatile prices, exceed expectations, it could trigger an immediate recovery in the U.S. Dollar (USD). This would likely weigh on the EUR/USD, leading to a potential downward movement from the supply zone around 1.10500. Conversely, if the core CPI underperforms, failing to meet market estimates, the pair might push higher, potentially breaching the initial supply area. If EUR/USD manages to surpass the 1.10500 level, the next significant resistance lies around 1.12000. This area could act as another barrier for the Euro, where a rebound might occur. However, the current analysis suggests that a reversal at the first supply area is more probable, especially if the USD regains strength following the CPI data release. In conclusion, the upcoming CPI figures will be pivotal in shaping the EUR/USD's trajectory. Traders should closely monitor the data, as it could either reinforce the overbought conditions and lead to a correction, or propel the pair higher if the USD weakens further. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Forex Trade Management Strategies. Techniques For Beginners I am going to reveal 4 trade management strategies that will change the way you trade forex. These simple techniques are aimed to minimize your losses and maximize your gains. 1. Trading Without Take Profit Once you spotted the market that is trading in a strong bullish or bearish trend, there is one tip that will help you to benefit from the entire movement. If the market is bullish, and you buy it expecting a bullish trend continuation, consider trading WITHOUT take profit. Take a look at USDJPY on an hourly time frame. The market is trading in the bullish trend, and we see a strong trend-following signal - a bullish breakout of a current resistance . After the violation, the price went up by more than 1000 pips, and of course, trading with a fixed target, most likely you would close the trade too soon. The same trade management strategy can be applied in a bearish trend. Above is a price action on GBPUSD. The pair is very bearish, and we see a strong bearish signal on an hourly time frame. The market dropped by more than 1000 pips then, and of course, trading with the fixed take profit, you would miss that bearish rally, closing the trade earlier. Even though the trends do not last forever, the markets may easily fall or grow sharply for weeks or even months and this technique will help you to cash out from the entire movement. 2. Stop Loss to Breakeven Once you open a trading position and the market starts going in the desired direction, there is a simple strategy that will help you to protect your position from a sudden reversal. Above is the real trade that we took with my students in my trading academy. We spotted a very bearish pattern on USDCAD and opened short position. Initially we were right, and the market was going to our target. BUT because of the surprising release of negative Canadian fundamental news, the market reversed suddenly, not being able to reach the target. And that could be a losing trade BUT we managed to save our money. What we did: we moved our stop loss to entry level, or to breakeven, before the release of the fundamentals. Trade was closed on entry level and we lost 0 dollars. Moving stop loss to entry saved me tens of thousands of dollars. It is one of the simplest trade management techniques that you must apply. 3. Trailing Stop Loss Once you managed to catch a strong movement, do not keep your stop loss intact. As we already discussed, your first step will be to protect your position and move your stop loss to entry. But what you can do next, you can apply trailing stop loss. Above is a trend-following trade that we took with my students on GBPCHF. Once the market started moving in the desired direction, we moved stop loss to breakeven. As the market kept setting new highs, we trailed the stop loss and set it below the supports based on new higher lows. We kept trailing the stop loss till the market reached the target. Application of a trailing stop will help you to protect your profits, in case of a sudden change in the market sentiment and reversal. 4. Partial Closing The last tip can be applied for trading and investing. Remember that once you correctly predicted a rally, you can book partial profits, once the price is approaching some important historical levels or ahead of important fundamental releases. Imagine that you bought 1 Bitcoin for 17000$. Once a bullish market started, you can sell the portion of your BTC, once the price reaches significant key levels. For example, 0.2 BTC on each level. With such trade management technique, you will book profits while remaining in your position. Even though, these techniques are very simple, only the few apply them. Try these trade management strategies and increase your gains and avoid losses! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
4