XAUUSD : Gold is turning around and increasing stronglyThe number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, but will the Fed "turn around" to reduce interest rates?
Gold prices regained momentum on Thursday and rose more than 1% as US government bond yields fell, reducing the appeal of the USD. Weaker U.S. labor market data raises the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates despite dealing with inflationary pressures.
Gold prices traded above $2,330 after bouncing from the day's low at $2,306. On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than estimated and an earlier report suggested the economy was weakening. This could influence the Fed in future monetary policy decisions after admitting that it is focused on dual goals - ensuring employment and inflation.
Meanwhile, a slew of Fed officials appeared in the news this week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said getting inflation down to the Fed's target will be a difficult road. She added that the past three months' data left policymakers uncertain about future inflation.
On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin commented that recent data were not very encouraging, and emphasized that inflation control was not yet complete. Elsewhere, New York Fed President John Williams noted that consumers are still spending, showing that the economy maintains strength despite slowing growth.
On Tuesday, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, predicted that the most likely scenario would be to keep interest rates unchanged in 2024, and said progress in curbing inflation had stalled. Yesterday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also spoke up. She expressed optimism about being able to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%, and emphasized that the current monetary policy is well-oriented and moderately tightened.
Forextrading
Gold is predicted to continue to increase in the near futureThe dxy index dropped pretty sharply yesterday, main to an boom in gold
Inflation stays stubbornly excessive and the Fed has currently taken a "hawkish" stance, however Thursday`s strain regarded to be robust because of a stronger-than-predicted Initial Jobless Claims report.
This boom ends in worries approximately the opportunity of a weakening US hard work marketplace and the marketplace will increase expectancies that the Fed will need to reduce hobby costs earlier than they say.
While Fed officers stay careful approximately reducing hobby costs, the marketplace forecasts a 10% threat of a charge reduce in June, 33% in July, 85% in September and 100% fact in November. .
Geopolitical dangers at the side of elevated call for from Asian valuable banks and traders additionally create a lift for gold. This morning, May 10, global gold endured to boom slightly, presently buying and selling above 2,350 USD. Perhaps this surprising boom is a part of the purpose why the home gold fee reached a brand new anciental peak.
Gold continues to rise as the Fed keeps interest rates unchangedGeopolitical tensions withinside the global have now no longer ended and principal banks of nations are continuously shopping for gold for reserves
Currently, gold costs are growing specially because of geopolitical tensions
High US hobby charges over an extended time frame aren't an amazing signal for gold, pushing up the possibility price of making an investment withinside the yellow metal.
Recent statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officers display that it's far probable that americaA Central Bank will now no longer lessen hobby charges this year.
It is predicted that XAU will continue to increase in the near fSpot world gold stands around 2,309.5
World gold prices decreased rapidly in the context of the USD rebounding in the midst of an unstable world
The USD has continued to increase in price compared to most other currencies since the beginning of the year, thereby making investors worried.
Since the beginning of the year until now, the USD has increased about 4% compared to a basket of 6 major currencies.
A still strong USD is putting downward pressure on gold prices, even though demand for precious metals is increasing strongly around the world, especially in Asia.
Many recent forecasts say that gold will be under downward pressure this summer, possibly in May-June because the Fed will still delay reversing monetary policy, thereby causing the USD to stand at a high level.
However, gradually towards the end of the year, gold will increase again and may reach a new peak. The Fed is currently very worried that inflation may rise again and that if it cuts interest rates early, it may not be able to control commodity prices.
Some countries such as Indonesia were recently forced to raise interest rates, despite the economy's declining growth. But the US is different, the USD is very strong so the Fed will just wait for the right time to reduce interest rates, maybe around next September.
XAU may continue to increase in the near termMany signals show that USDT will stand at a high price due to the FED's monetary policy
The FED may delay monetary policy until May and June
But it is also worrying because inflation causes the USDT market to fluctuate and the Fed is also very worried. The Fed is currently very worried that inflation may increase again and if it cuts interest rates early, it may not be able to control prices. both goods.
The USD is very strong so the Fed will just wait for the right time to reduce interest rates, possibly around next September.
When the Fed reduces interest rates, the greenback weakens, and gold prices will increase rapidly. Gold also benefits in the context of world instability and conflicts occurring in many places. Nuclear risks are also growing.
Gold will continue to increase in the near futureMany alerts display that USDT will stand at a excessive fee because of the FED`s financial coverage
The FED can also additionally postpone financial coverage till May and June
But it's also annoying due to the fact inflation reasons the USDT marketplace to range and the Fed is likewise very concerned. The Fed is presently very concerned that inflation can also additionally boom once more and if it cuts hobby quotes early, it is able to now no longer be capable of manage fees. each goods.
The USD may be very sturdy so the Fed will simply look ahead to the proper time to lessen hobby quotes, likely round subsequent September.
When the Fed reduces hobby quotes, the dollar weakens, and gold fees will boom rapidly. Gold additionally blessings withinside the context of globalwide instability and conflicts taking place in lots of places. Nuclear dangers also are growing.
XAUUSD : Gold is too safe until the end of the weekThe world gold price is currently trading around 2,310 USD/oz and is still in a short-term sideway phase. It's clear that the USD's recovery due to recent "hawkish" statements by Fed officials is creating certain resistance.
According to TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali: "The market is currently 'waiting for a push' to break out, but the downward momentum seems to be limited by the caution of fund managers. " This comment shows that the general psychology of investors is cautious due to the lack of clear signals about market trends.
On the other hand, according to the World Gold Council, in April, PBOC bought an additional 1.9 tons of gold, recording the 18th consecutive month of net buying. In fact, the pace of net gold purchases by many central banks in Asia, including the PBOC, has slowed down. However, with net buying still occurring, this is still creating momentum for gold.
In the long term, many experts still predict that gold is in an "uptrend" and could rise to 3,000 USD/oz (more than 90 million VND/tael) next year and possibly even to 4,000 USD/oz (more than 120 million VND/tael). VND/tael) and even more than 10,000 USD/oz (more than 300 million VND/tael) in the following years.
DXY : DXY is likely to weaken following the dataAs of the time of writing, the DXY index extended its recovery for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 105.50 and at the same time putting pressure on major currency pairs.
In the early morning of May 9, the State Bank announced that the central exchange rate USD/VND increased by 6 VND, currently at 24,249 VND. The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's Buying - Selling Exchange remains unchanged at: 23,400 VND - 25,450 VND.
EURUSD: 1D MA50-200 rejection. Strong sell.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.370, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 29.673) as it got rejected on the 1D MA50-MA200 level, which stopped the bullish wave of the Channel Up from extending higher and potential breaking the pattern. The 1D RSI is on the stage where it should reverse as per March 12th. This is a strong sell signal, TP = 1.05550 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level).
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XAU price decreased slightly in this morning's trading sessionThe US Federal Reserve (FED) cuts interest rates and unrest increases in the Middle East
Reports also suggest that ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have not made much progress.
Gold remains below record highs hit in April, when the threat of a potential war between Iran and Israel increased safe-haven demand. But the yellow metal then dropped sharply because tensions between the two sides had not yet become a full-blown conflict.
Focus on cutting interest rates, waiting for more FED speakers. The dollar steadied after last week's decline, limiting any major gains in gold as the market waits for more interest rate signals from the Fed.
Gold is forecast to increase due to continued instability in theThe US Federal Reserve (FED) cuts hobby fees and unrest will increase withinside the Middle East
Reports additionally endorse that ceasefire negotiations among Israel and Hamas have now no longer made a whole lot progress.
Gold stays under report highs hit in April, whilst the danger of a capacity conflict among Iran and Israel expanded safe-haven demand. But the yellow steel then dropped sharply due to the fact tensions among the 2 aspects had now no longer but emerge as a full-blown conflict.
Focus on reducing hobby fees, looking ahead to greater FED speakers. The greenback steadied after ultimate week`s decline, restricting any predominant profits in gold because the marketplace waits for greater hobby fee indicators from the Fed.
XAU price positive with slight increaseInvestor sentiment became more cautious due to mixed comments from Fed officials about the upcoming monetary tightening roadmap, while also being pressured by the upward trend of the USD.
The sparse US economic calendar will keep investors focused on the speech from Fed officials this week, following the US jobs report released last Friday.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that employment data is much weaker than forecast and slowing wage growth will cause the FED to consider loosening monetary policy soon. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% in September increased from 55% before the report to 85%.
GOLD : Gold will increase unexpectedly in the near futureAccording to the World Gold Council, first-quarter gold purchases by central banks were the heaviest in history. Some market observers say gold's 12% gain this year is partly driven by central bank demand.
According to Goldman Sachs, central banks tend to buy gold in the long term and it is possible that emerging market countries may buy more gold.
“Emerging-market central banks are driving the gold rush,” Goldman researchers said. However, their gold holdings still account for only 6% of reserves, half that of developed countries."
Gold prices are also driven by demand from Asian investors, especially in China, where demand for gold is growing due to an underperforming economy and gloomy markets. Rising geopolitical risks and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have also boosted gold purchases as a safe haven asset.
Spot gold decreased 0.6% to 2,310.34 USD/ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased slightly. Silver, palladium and platinum all fell in price.
XAUUSD : Gold waits for a strong breakthroughGold prices opened the week with a positive signal, recording a slight increase. However, investor sentiment became more cautious due to mixed comments from Fed officials about the upcoming monetary tightening roadmap, while also being pressured by the upward trend of the USD.
The sparse US economic calendar will keep investors focused on the speech from Fed officials this week, following the US jobs report released last Friday.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that employment data is much weaker than forecast and slowing wage growth will cause the FED to consider loosening monetary policy soon. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% in September increased from 55% before the report to 85%.
USDCAD: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USDCAD
Pattern – consolidation pattern break (continuation)
Support – 1.3650
Resistance – 1.3780, 1.3830
Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDCAD on its daily chart.
Today, we are wondering if the USDCAD is setting off on a new move higher after holding support. Price continues to test at the descending triangle pattern, which could be seen as a consolidation in the uptrend and as a continuation pattern.
We have listed a few things to watch out for and the next levels of resistance. What do you think? Is this a new leg higher?
Good trading.
GBP/USD Short, EUR/GBP Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/GBP Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 2 touch 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBPUSDHello traders ,what do you think about GBPUSD?This currency pair has broken its downward channel and resistance zone and is above it.If the daily candle closes above the mentioned level, it is expected to grow at least to specified levels.
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XAUUSD : Gold will likely return to its old peakWorld gold price yesterday recorded a high of 2,332.22 USD and closed the session up nearly 1% to 2,323.99 USD. Do you find it strange? This number must have been chosen by the driver. Along with that, the domestic gold price continues to set a new peak.
World gold prices have increased more than 12% in 2024 thanks to expectations that major central banks will start reducing interest rates. Coupled with new concerns that the Middle East conflict could flare up again between Israel and Hamas, this could provide a significant boost to gold. However, this factor has been quite lackluster in recent times, instead driven by economic data and gold demand from central banks.
Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Monday, supported by an improvement in risk appetite due to rising expectations that the Fed may start easing policy sooner than expected. This follows last Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy is still creating jobs but at a slower pace. Along with that, economic data from China, a major gold market, still shows positive signals.
Indian gold buyers are price sensitive, causing demand to frequently decline when spot gold prices (excluding import taxes) in India increase. However, according to Bank of America, the recent stabilization of gold prices has helped the market regain balance, as shown by the increased difference between domestic gold prices in India and London gold prices.
2024 will see the strongest net gold purchases by central banks ever, contributing to a surge in global bullion demand in the first quarter. According to a World Gold Council (WGC) report published on Tuesday, these institutions added 290 tonnes of gold to their official reserves in the first three months of the year, with China being a net buyer. largest gold, according to Bloomberg.
Therefore, the outlook for this precious metal remains positive in the remainder of Q2, especially the motivation coming from net gold purchases from central banks, especially from China, according to Bloomberg.
DXY : Weakening USD creates momentum for goldThe DXY index is currently trading around the 105.00 mark, recording a slight decrease during Monday's trading session.
The dollar remains supported by persistent inflation concerns, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has warned. However, the weaker-than-expected jobs report released last Friday showed signs that the US economy may be slowing and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September are higher than ever. out, there is a potential risk of pushing the USD even lower.
The US economy is currently painting a rather complicated picture. On one hand, consumer demand remains strong and the labor market is stable. However, April employment data showed some signs of weakness, making investors worried about future economic growth.
However, Fed Chairman Jorome Powell's caution, highlighting trend instability and uncertain progress in controlling inflation, could help boost the USD if upcoming economic data shows signs of positive.
World gold prices increased amid improved market sentimentGold recorded its 2nd consecutive week of decline after a 5-week recuperation streak, however in general, traders are nonetheless constructive approximately the recuperation of gold.
(Fed) is definitely expressing its opinion that it's going to not be hard in economic coverage from now till the give up of 2024. Specifically, in a current press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clean that americaA Central Bank There may be no purpose to boom hobby rates.
In addition to economic coverage elements, specialists additionally consider that the call for to shop for gold from valuable banks is likewise one of the decisive elements pushing gold fees to a brand new document high.
World Gold Council (WGC) international studies director Juan Carlos Artigas stated that gold has tested to be the maximum various economic instrument, that's why valuable banks preserve to maintain gold.
Gold forecasts have many elements to boom the charge withinside the close to future.
Many essential banks round the arena say that the gold marketplace has nearly removed all stress from the Fed`s economic coverage and count on to peer many new document fees set this year.
It is predicted that XAU will continue to grow in the near futurGold recorded its second consecutive week of decline after a 5-week recovery streak, but in general, investors are still optimistic about the recovery of gold.
(Fed) is clearly expressing its opinion that it will no longer be tough in monetary policy from now until the end of 2024. Specifically, in a recent press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the US Central Bank There will be no intention to increase interest rates.
In addition to monetary policy factors, experts also believe that the demand to buy gold from central banks is also one of the decisive factors pushing gold prices to a new record high.
World Gold Council (WGC) global research director Juan Carlos Artigas said that gold has proven to be the most diverse financial instrument, which is why central banks continue to hold gold.
Gold forecasts have many factors to increase the price in the near future.
Many major banks around the world say that the gold market has almost eliminated all pressure from the Fed's monetary policy and expect to see many new record prices set this year.