USDJPY: Intraday Bullish Confirmation ?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance.
Analysing an hourly time frame, I spotted a strong bullish confirmation
- breakout of a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern.
We see a positive bullish reaction to that after the release
of the yesterday's fundamentals.
I will expect growth to 157.5
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Forextrading
Gold continues to decline after 2 daysSpot gold prices continued to decline on Thursday, with the lowest trading level at 2,327.28 USD. The precious metal fell sharply for the second straight week, with the USD initially taking advantage of the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Documents released on Wednesday showed officials expressed concern about the lack of progress in achieving the 2% inflation target, but remained confident that inflation would fall. However, a rate cut seems unlikely before September. The announcement weighed on the stock market, pushing Wall Street to close lower.
XAUUSD : Gold will have a reversal todayAfter only 2 consecutive falling sessions, world gold price (XAU/USD) has dropped more than 100 USD if calculated from the high on May 22. Since the historic peak of 2,450 USD, XAU/USD has dropped more than 120 USD in just 4 sessions.
Gold has been at a disadvantage since Wednesday's hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Just yesterday, preliminary PMI data were released with a spike in the services sector, which accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity. Data shows the US economy remains strong, despite high interest rates, further pushing back investor expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates soon this year.
TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said that although the greenback's recovery and the weakening interest rate outlook have triggered a sell-off in the gold market, the correction will not be too deep. According to him, gold is adjusting to the view that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, while at this meeting, the Fed mentioned the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation remains "persistent".
UBS Bank recently raised its gold price forecast to 2,600 USD by the end of 2024 and advised investors to wait to buy at about 2,300 USD or lower.
⭐️ XAU/USD : GOLD's Tradable Key Levels (Important Caption)By examining gold in the 1-hour time frame, we can see that the price experienced a heavy drop after yesterday's analysis, which was due to the fact that the Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate will remain high for a longer period of time! Currently, gold is trading in the range of $2367 and there are very important supply zones in front of it! These ranges are $2371 to $2374, $2380 to $2383.5, $2387 to $2395, $2406 to $2415, $2422 and $2430 respectively! These are the key supply levels of gold that the price can reach in the short and medium term and react! There is a very important liquidity void in the range of $2395.5 to $2405.5, which I believe this FVG will be filled in the short term! The important demand levels are $2351 to $2358, $2328 to $2332, and $2323 to $2327, respectively! Note that you must monitor the price reaction to the mentioned key levels, because all these levels are tradable!
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GBPJPY: Bullish continuation. 1D MA50 in full support.GBPJPY is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.343, MACD = 1.720, ADX = 59.150) and is extending the bullish wave inside the 16 month Channel Up. The overbought technicals shouldn't be a factor for a bearish reversal as long as the 1D MA50 continues to support. We are confident with buying, aiming at the top of the Channel Up (TP = 208.000).
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XAUUSD : Gold turned down sharply after the FOMC meetingClosing the trading session on May 22, spot gold price decreased 1.8% to more than 2,377 USD/ounce after hitting a historic high of 2,450 USD/ounce on May 20. Calculated from the intraday high of 2,426 USD/ounce, spot gold price has decreased by about 50 USD/ounce. Gold futures contracts also decreased 1.4% to nearly 2,393 USD/ounce. As of the time of writing, spot gold prices continue to be under selling pressure, reaching a low of 2,366 USD/ounce.
Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco Metals, said the market is seeing some sustained liquidation during the week, with some short-term futures traders taking profits. This is completely normal when gold prices reach new peaks.
"Tomorrow will be an important trading day and gold prices need to recover immediately, otherwise there will be a strong correction in the short term," Mr. Wyckoff added.
The newly released minutes of the FOMC meeting shocked the gold market, leading to a wave of strong selling. According to the minutes, Fed officials expressed concern about persistent inflation in the first quarter of 2024. Some even favored further tightening of monetary policy if inflation continued to exceed expectations. .
In addition, the minutes also revealed the Fed's view that it will take more time than expected to bring inflation to the target level of 2%. This makes many investors worry that the Fed's interest rate cutting roadmap may be delayed.
Compared to previous sessions, this time's minutes were considered much more "hawkish", demonstrating the lack of confidence of some Fed officials about the current level of inflation control. While acknowledging that inflation has fallen over the past year, the minutes also note that there has been no significant progress in achieving the 2% inflation target in recent months.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows that inflation is showing signs of decreasing. However, Fed policymakers emphasized that a single data point or monthly report is not enough to accurately assess trends. Therefore, the Fed will likely wait a few more months to monitor the next reports and ensure that inflation has been effectively controlled before considering reducing interest rates.
Gold is falling to create momentum to increase again ?Gold prices decreased because US government bond yields increased after the Fed meeting minutes. Gold prices fell sharply when US government bond yields increased and the greenback appreciated. The 10-year US government bond yield increased 2 basis points to 4.43%, while the DXY index increased 0.19% to 104.82, an obstacle for gold.
FOMC minutes showed that Fed officials remain uncertain about the extent of policy tightening. They added that "it will take more time than expected to have more confidence in inflation falling to 2%."
During the week, speeches by Fed officials laid the groundwork for the "hawkish stance" of the FOMC Minutes, as most officials said they wanted to be sure that inflation was coming down and that they were in no hurry. lower interest rates. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows investors are expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 31 basis points by the end of the year.
SOYBN/USD Short and SUGAR/USD ShortSOYBN/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
SUGAR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
XAU plunged as USD increased sharplyXAU price dropped sharply in this morning's trading session as the USD increased thanks to the policies of the US Federal Reserve (FED).
According to the newly published minutes of the FED's meeting, although the US Central Bank's monetary policy has become a secondary factor in the gold market, persistent inflation may force the FED to raise interest rates once. more and create some selling pressure on precious metals.
This view goes completely against recent statements by members of the US Monetary Policy Committee that although they are not ready to cut interest rates because inflation is still high, they will not raise interest rates.
Recently, gold has been greatly affected by the FED's "hawkish" policy stance. However, despite the fluctuations, gold is still considered an effective investment asset thanks to its role in preventing inflation and diversifying investment portfolios.
Gold is greatly affected by the FED's "hawkish" policy stanceGold is significantly suffering from the FED`s "hawkish" coverage stance.
According to the newly posted mins of the FED's meeting, even though the United States Central Bank's financial coverage has come to be a secondary thing withinside the gold market, continual inflation might also additionally pressure the FED to elevate hobby costs once. extra and create a few promoting stress on valuable metals.
This view is going absolutely towards current statements with the aid of using individuals of the United States Monetary Policy Committee that even though they're now no longer equipped to reduce hobby costs due to the fact inflation continues to be high, they'll now no longer boost hobby costs.
Recently, gold has been significantly suffering from the FED's "hawkish" coverage stance. However, in spite of the fluctuations, gold continues to be taken into consideration an powerful funding asset way to its position in stopping inflation and diversifying funding portfolios.
⭐️ XAU/USD : First Long , then SHORT ! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the gold chart on a 15-minute timeframe, we observe that the price is currently trading around $2423. It is likely that in the initial movement, we will see an increase to the range of $2428.5 to $2433. Following that, once the price enters the specified range, we may witness another drop in gold prices. All the important levels for trading have been marked on the chart! First Long , then SHORT !
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
⭐️ EUR/USD : Potent Sell Opportunity (Strategic Entry Point)Upon reviewing the EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we observe that the price, after accumulating liquidity above 1.08860, underwent a correction. Currently, the price is re-entering the Bearish Order Block ahead and we are still witnessing an IMBALANCE or FVG prior to the specified order block. This fact significantly increases the importance of this order block for us, and potentially, by capturing a suitable trigger, we could engage in an attractive SELL position!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAUUSD : Gold will be an interesting thing in this marketSince the shock increase and decrease on Monday following the speeches of Fed officials, the gold price (XAU/USD) has had almost no significant fluctuations, fluctuating around 2,420 USD/ounce.
Many experts believe that the reason gold does not fluctuate much after officials' hawkish speeches is because the Fed's monetary policy only has a secondary impact on gold prices. Currently, investors are still concerned about inflation risks, economic instability along with geopolitics and that makes them rush into this precious metal to hedge against risks.
According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased more than 16%, reaching a record high of 2,450 USD/ounce earlier this week. Some experts believe that gold prices will increase further. Citibank analysts recently optimistically commented that gold could reach 3,000 USD/ounce within the next 6 - 18 months.
Despite that optimism, most are not sure when gold will hit the $3,000/ounce mark. The driving force that can bring gold to that level is probably the "nod" to loosen monetary policy from the Fed.
EURUSD: The time to sell is now.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.508, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 33.468) but is on the 4th day of descend, which is a natural reaction as it almost hit the top of the 5-month Channel Down. In the meantime the 1D RSI almost hit the top of its own 5-month Rectangle. We are still on the ideal level to short. Our Target is intact just over the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.05550).
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Gold will create a big surprise at the end of the yearGold prices have risen to a new all-time high, hitting $2,440 in the morning and $2,450 in the afternoon Vietnam time due to shelter demand as geopolitical tensions increase. According to Reuters, the reason is that Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, and other high-ranking Iranian politicians were killed in a helicopter crash in the North of the country over the weekend. This increases instability in an already tense region because of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Factors supporting gold prices
Geopolitical tensions escalate: Russia opens a second front in Kharkiv and close ties between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Putin's recent visit to Beijing add to concerns about the formation of a new order, seriously affecting world peace and free trade.
Demand from BRICS countries and central banks in emerging economies: According to the IMF, gold demand from BRICS countries and central banks in emerging economies has increased significantly in recent years as a preventive measure against Western sanctions. This trend is expected to continue to increase in light of recent instability in the world.
Expectations for a Fed rate cut: Gold also benefits from the general expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates at their current high levels for longer. This is beneficial for gold because it will reduce the opportunity cost of holding this non-interest-bearing asset compared to USD or government bonds.
April CPI and Retail Sales data: This change in outlook comes from April CPI and Retail Sales data released last week. Although Fed members are still avoiding revealing when the Fed might cut interest rates, the market still predicts a 65% chance that the Fed will cut the first time in September, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Currently, Fed Chairman Jefferson will give his final speech of this Monday. However, there probably won't be too many fluctuations because the previous three speeches seem to partly reflect the Fed's current hawkish stance and gold prices have also dropped sharply from the historic peak of 2,450 USD.
XAUUSD : Gold increased and decreased unusually stronglyWorld gold prices (XAU/USD) soared yesterday, reaching 2,440 USD in the morning session, then had another increase, reaching a new high again at 2,450 USD in the afternoon session and holding near this mark before when it fell sharply after the somewhat hawkish speech of Fed officials in the evening session.
Kitco Metals experts said that the news that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a plane crash has raised concerns and that has triggered the role of precious metals as a haven.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is among the experts who are bullish on gold in the short term. According to him, both the USD and US government bond yields seem to be in a downward trend and that will provide support for this precious metal. Besides, gold surpassing the psychological threshold of 2,400 USD/ounce will be a stepping stone for this precious metal towards the 2,500 USD/ounce mark.
In addition, Senior Market Strategist Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures said that, in addition to "persistent" inflation, the US public debt burden is also a factor driving gold's recovery. With the same opinion, experts from ROTH Capital Partners also predict that gold prices will increase further in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
XAU breaks record after Iranian President's plane crashXAU is gaining momentum amid geopolitical tensions that are expected to escalate after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash.
Last week, data showed signs of consumer inflation in the US and retail sales slowing, giving the Fed more time to start easing monetary policy.
Experts say that gold prices may continue to reach new records in the context of both the USD and bond yields falling. At the same time, the geopolitical situation in the world has many negative fluctuations, which is also strongly supporting gold prices.
Besides, according to currency strategist Adam Button of Forexlive.com, gold is being strongly supported by recent evidence that the US economy is slowing down and that will further strengthen the possibility of easing. monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the future.
World gold prices increased after news of political tensionsWorld gold charges accelerated as buyers sought a secure haven because of accelerated hazard aversion while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country`s overseas minister and others died in an accident. Helicopter.
Last week, records confirmed symptoms and symptoms of patron inflation withinside the US and retail income slowing, giving the Fed extra time to begin easing economic coverage.
Experts say that gold charges may also hold to attain new statistics withinside the context of each the USD and bond yields falling. At the equal time, the geopolitical scenario withinside the international has many bad fluctuations, which is likewise strongly assisting gold charges.
Besides, in keeping with foreign money strategist Adam Button of Forexlive.com, gold is being strongly supported with the aid of using current proof that the United States financial system is slowing down and with a view to similarly enhance the opportunity of easing. economic coverage of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) withinside the future.
EUR/NZD Short, SOYBN/USD Short and WTICO/USD ShortEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
SOYBN/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below AOI.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
SOYBN/USD Short, WTICO/USD Short,WHEAT/USD Short & GBP/AUD ShortSOYBN/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WHEAT/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below AOI.
• If 3 touch 1H continuation, 15 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
XAU price increased due to many reasonsThe world price of XAU last week increased beyond 2,400 USD in the context of many price increasing catalysts
An important catalyst driving gold prices up is the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed that inflation decreased slightly in April, lower than economists' forecasts.
The data fueled market optimism that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could adopt a more accommodative stance, potentially making interest rate cuts sooner and larger than expected.
The combination of high inflation, massive debt issuance and rapid money printing by central banks is pushing out other market participants and commodities.