XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
Gold, after its recent decline, is approaching a support zone. The downtrend is expected to continue until it reaches this support level. If buyers show a positive reaction at this area, we may see an upward correction, potentially reaching higher resistance levels.
If this correction occurs, it could present a selling opportunity for traders around resistance, as there may be a continuation of the downtrend after the correction.
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Forextrading
Xauusd weekly chart Gold trades little changed on Friday, holding steady in the $2,560s after making a slight recovery from the two-month lows reached on the previous day. A stronger US Dollar continues to put pressure on Gold since it is mainly priced and traded in the US currency.
Gold sell support 2536
Support 2518
Support 2491
Support 2473
Resistance 2585
Resistance 2601
Forex Trade Planning: USD Dominance and Potential CorrectionToday's trade planning session highlighted the USD as the strongest currency on the daily Currency Strength Index (CSI), while the EUR emerged as the weakest.
General CSI Overview:
Buy pairs: USD, CHF, GBP, JPY, AUD
Sell pairs: CAD, NZD, EUR
In our H1 timeframe market analysis, we anticipate a deeper correction in existing trends. The wave structure for major pairs versus the USD has reached momentum high and momentum low 5. From this level, a correction of the trend is expected.
It is important to note that significant effort and time are required for a trend reversal. Nevertheless, there has been a notable decline, breaking key structures in USDJPY, which could indicate a more substantial downturn for the USD and potentially lead to a larger secondary trend.
Trade carefully and happy trading!
GBPNZD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.GBPNZD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.440, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 26.806), trading right over its 1D MA50. If broken, it will be the validation of the new bearish wave of the 1 year Channel Down. The 1D RSI is forming the very same Arc pattern as the May bearish wave. Upon validation, we will get short and aim for the 1D MA200, over the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 2.12500).
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USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold buy momentum here is opportunity read the caption From the long-term Elliott wave perspective, price appears to be correcting the bullish cycle that started in October 2023 when Gold was exchanged for 1810. After completing wave (IV) of the supercycle degree in September 2022, Gold rallied to complete waves I and II of (V) in May 2023 and October 2023 respectively. Thus wave III of (V) started in October 2023 at 1810. However, it appears wave III has not finished yet. The current pullback is expected to either be in wave ((4)) of III already or wave (4) of ((3)) of III. The most important task now is to note what
AUDCHF: 4H Golden Cross emerging. Buy opportunity.AUDCHF is technically neutral on the 1D (RSI = 49.632, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 25.946) and 4H timeframes alike as the price is consolidating on the HL trendline of a medium term uptrend. That uptrend is technically the bullish wave of the 3 month Channel Up. The pair is about to form a 4H Golden and last time this was formed on the bullish wave prior (Sep 23rd) the wave was only halfway through. The 1D MACD formed the usual Bullish Cross just after the bottom so we have all the technical validations to go long and target the R2 level (TP = 0.58700).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DXY: Highly overbought on 1D. Excellent short.The U.S. Dollar Index has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.223, MACD = 0.950, ADX = 43.535) as the current weekly candle is only a few clicks away from the top of the 2 year consolidation Rectangle pattern. Even the 1W RSI (67.108) is about to turn overbought but has already reached the top of the 1 year R1 Zone. All the above create the conditions for the perfect long term short. Our target is the 1W MA200 (TP = 101.750), which supported the price during the bearish wave of July-August.
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Gold will bounce back to hit top level read the caption (CPI) rose by 0.2% in October. Over the past year, it increased by 2.6%. On the other hand, the core CPI increased by 0.3% monthly and 3.3% annually. This data strengthened market expectations of the US Federal Reserve's potential third interest rate cut in December. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting surged to over 80%. This is up from less than 60% just a day
Gold next move and highly accurate read the caption At the time of writing, however, market participants are battling to establish a trend. The USD retains its strength, but the momentum eased, while US indexes pared the bleeding, with only the Nasdaq Composite trading in the red. The macroeconomic excitement will likely recede as the US other relevant figure to release for the rest of the week
Gold confirm buy target here is opportunity read the caption Gold (XAU/USD) came under heavy selling pressure and slumped below $2,700 on Wednesday as US Treasury bond yields rallied on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Inflation data from the US and Fedspeak next week could offer fresh insights into whether Gold will be able to shake off the bearish pressured
Gold price is trending down ? Why ? World gold prices dropped to their lowest level in nearly 2 months due to pressure from the strong recovery of the USD. Recorded at 8:33 a.m. on November 13, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 105,897 points (up 0.04%).
The inverse relationship between gold and the USD seems to have disappeared in recent times. However, since the US presidential election, this relationship has returned strongly.
The USD is expected to benefit from some of the policies of US President-elect Donald Trump, as they will likely cause US interest rates to remain relatively high for a longer period of time and that will be unfavorable environment for gold.
Next week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to last week's boom. The main economic news events to watch will be the US core CPI on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to closely monitor CPI for signs that consumer inflation is continuing on its path towards 2%.
Thursday's US PPI report, weekly jobless claims data and Friday morning's US retail sales release for October will also provide specific data on Americans' purchasing power in the current high-cost environment.
🔥 TVC:GOLD BUY 2590 - 2592🔥
💵 TP1: 2600
💵 TP2: 2610
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2583
🔥 TVC:GOLD SELL 2628 - 2630🔥
💵 TP1: 2620
💵 TP2: 2610
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2637
EURUSD: Showing no signs of stopping before 1.04000.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.891, MACD = -0.007, ADX = 29.222), which is a sign of a potential slowdown on the October sell-off but not of stopping. We believe that as the price is approaching the bottom LL of the Channel Down, it will slow down in an attempt to form sideways a bottom as during the weeks of September 25th - October 16th 2023. The ideal entry will be with the 1W RSI as close to being oversold (30.000) as possible and symmetric 1W MACD shows it can happen by December 9th. That means that we can continue shorting the pair, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.04000), which is where the bottom was priced on October 2nd 2023.
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GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
This currency pair is currently moving within a descending channel and trading below its resistance zone. Given the current conditions, after some minor fluctuations and corrections, the price is expected to move towards lower levels.
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EURAUD: Failed to recover the 1D MA50. Sell signal.EURAUD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.768, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 33.915) as it reversed just before reclaiming the 1D MA50. The 1D MACD is on a Bearish Cross since last Thursday and since August 5th every such formation completed a -3.63% decline. This time such a decline would reach the S2 level exactly, which is what we're aiming for (TP = 1.60115).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GBPNZD: Very Bullish Price Action 🇬🇧🇳🇿
GBPNZD looks bullish after a test of a strong daily support.
I see a nice cup & handle pattern on that and a confirmed bullish
imbalance on a 4H time frame.
With a high probability, the price will go up at least to 2.169
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Fri 8th Nov 2024 NZD/CAD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a NZD/CAD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Xauusd sell Gold price is seeing a dead cat bounce from three-week lows of $2,644 in Asian trading on Thursday, as the dust settles in the aftermath of a massive sell-off, fuelled by Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race.
Gold now sell 2660
Support 2630
Support 2595
USDJPY Daily Outlook: Bearish Bias Expected Amid Key Economic !USDJPY Daily Outlook: Bearish Bias Expected Amid Key Economic Drivers (07/11/2024)
Overview
On November 7, 2024, USDJPY appears to be leaning toward a slight bearish bias as various fundamental factors impact the pair. This article delves into the primary drivers shaping USDJPY today, including central bank policy stances, global market sentiment, and economic data releases. Traders and investors on TradingView can benefit from a close analysis of these influences to navigate the USDJPY pair’s movement.
Keywords: USDJPY forecast, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, technical analysis, forex market
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Key Factors Supporting a USDJPY Bearish Bias Today
1. Dovish Stance from the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve has recently shifted toward a more cautious tone on rate hikes, with key policymakers indicating a preference for a "wait-and-see" approach. This cautious stance could limit USD strength, particularly as traders anticipate no further rate hikes unless inflation surges unexpectedly. A softer dollar environment could weigh on USDJPY.
2. Bank of Japan’s Slightly More Hawkish Outlook
While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has traditionally maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, recent comments from BoJ officials suggest a growing willingness to adjust policy if inflation stays persistently higher. This subtle shift in tone has sparked interest in the yen as traders reassess Japan’s inflation and policy outlook, which could add bearish pressure on USDJPY.
3. Rising Risk Aversion
Risk sentiment has turned cautious in global markets, with equities slightly under pressure and investors showing renewed interest in safe-haven assets. The yen, as a traditional safe-haven currency, often benefits in times of risk aversion, making USDJPY more vulnerable to downside movement when risk sentiment fades.
4. Weak U.S. Economic Data
Recent U.S. economic indicators, such as declining consumer sentiment and slower employment growth, are casting doubt on the resilience of the U.S. economy. Softer data contributes to concerns that the Fed may pause or even reverse its tightening, further pressuring USD and potentially driving USDJPY lower.
5. Technical Analysis Insights
On the technical side, USDJPY is trading near significant resistance at the 150.00 level, a historically sensitive price area. If sellers defend this resistance, USDJPY could turn bearish, with initial support around 148.00. Technical indicators such as the RSI suggest USDJPY may be overbought, aligning with a potential pullback.
USDJPY Today: What to Watch For
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Today's release of U.S. jobless claims data may further affect USD sentiment, particularly if the data reveals a labor market slowdown, adding to USDJPY’s bearish potential.
- BoJ Commentary – Any fresh statements from BoJ officials about policy flexibility could strengthen the yen and add further pressure on USDJPY.
Conclusion
Today, USDJPY shows signs of a bearish bias due to dovish signals from the Fed, a potentially more hawkish BoJ, risk aversion, and weaker U.S. data. As always, traders should monitor key data releases for potential market-moving surprises that could impact USDJPY.
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NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key FundamentalNZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (07/11/2024)
Overview
On 7th November 2024, NZDUSD is showing signs of a slight bullish bias, driven by key economic data releases and broader market sentiment. This article provides an in-depth look at the factors shaping NZDUSD today, including central bank commentary, global market trends, and recent shifts in risk sentiment.
Keywords: NZDUSD forecast, New Zealand dollar, forex trading, USD, economic data, central bank policy, risk sentiment, technical analysis, forex market
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Key Factors Supporting NZDUSD Bullish Bias Today
1. Federal Reserve Dovish Outlook
Recent Federal Reserve statements have taken a slightly dovish tone, with policymakers emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate hikes. The possibility of a Fed pause on interest rates provides support to the New Zealand dollar, as market sentiment leans towards a softer USD.
2. RBNZ’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently signaled a focus on inflation control, reinforcing a hawkish stance relative to the Fed. This contrasts with other central banks, positioning NZD as an attractive currency in the current global environment. Markets are pricing in a limited chance of a rate hike from the RBNZ in the near term, which could further support NZD.
3. Improved Risk Sentiment
Global markets have seen an increase in risk appetite, with equities rebounding and commodities trading higher. This shift often benefits the NZD due to its reputation as a commodity-linked and high-yield currency. As investors seek yield, demand for the New Zealand dollar may rise, enhancing NZDUSD.
4. Strong New Zealand Economic Data
New Zealand’s recent economic data, including employment figures and business confidence, indicate resilience in the economy. Solid domestic growth and low unemployment rates suggest underlying strength, which could further boost NZD demand against USD.
5. Technical Analysis Indicators
From a technical standpoint, NZDUSD is approaching key support levels around 0.5900, showing upward momentum and signaling a potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels indicate that the pair may have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory, aligning with a bullish outlook.
NZDUSD Today: What to Watch For
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Scheduled later today, these figures may influence USD if they show a labor market slowdown, potentially adding to the Fed’s dovish stance and supporting NZDUSD.
- NZDUSD’s Resistance Levels – Key resistance near 0.6050 could be tested if bullish momentum continues, while support at 0.5900 could offer a base.
Conclusion
Given the softer stance from the Federal Reserve and favorable economic data from New Zealand, NZDUSD shows signs of a slight bullish bias. As always, forex traders should monitor any significant data releases closely, as these could prompt volatility in NZDUSD.
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