Get started

Forextrading

THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the market to open, test the high and then give us the short trade into the lower red box levels. We gave the levels of 2775 and 2755-60 to traders for potential RIPs of which the 2775 region gave us the tap and bounce that we wanted to get that long trade. We mentioned our target level of 2828 which was active and as we saw, it not only completed but was surpassed. During the week, we updated traders with the plans for pull backs and red box target levels, of which again, nearly all were completed. That along with another 8 Excalibur targets just on Gold! An extremely decent week on the markets in Camelot, not only on gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we’re in a similar situation to the last two weeks, price has close high and it’s too risky for us to attempt long trades up here unless we’re scalping the red boxes. We have the immediate resistance level above of 2865-8 which is a potential opening target if they take this upside from the open. This is a key level and needs to be watched, if rejected this could be the first opportunity to short again into the lower levels of 2855-50 and below that 2830-35. If broken, we’ll look higher at the 2895-2902 (target region) level for another attempt. On the flip, ideally we want to see this go down into the first region 2830-5 for the bounce, and then flip the resistance to continue the move downside into the lower support and red box levels which is where we will be waiting again to swing this long. In summary, expect ranging first part of the week, potential for 2885 resistance and 2855 support which are the levels that need to break to determine the next move. Don’t get carried away with trading it to the moon or shorting it to the core of the earth. Trade it how you see it on the day, follow KOG’s bias of the day and the red box targets which are proven to be effective for day traders and scalpers. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bearish below 2875 with targets below 2855, 2850, 2845 and below that 2835 Bullish on break of 2875 with targets above 2890, 2897, 2899 and above that 2902 RED BOXES: Break below 2850 for 2847, 2844, 2839, 2835 and 2826 in extension of the move Break above 2860 for 2865, 2872, 2874, 2890 and 2902 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
XAUUSD, 1h ANALYSISHello traders and investors ! hope you are fit and fine doing well today. What are you thinking about Gold today? Gold is in stong bullish trend showing buyers pressure here,however at the current market levels there are 2 risky zone one is to enter sell from 2882 with low risk regarding a target of 2840 and the other zone to place buy at current market for scalping with a target of 2882 and 2900, if the volatility occurs in Gold then we may see $3000 soon . Please don't forget to like and comment on idea its motivation for me happy trading Best wishes Tom
OANDA:XAUUSD
by LegendaryTom
USD/JPY Short and EUR/NZD LongUSD/JPY Short Minimum entry requirements: • Break above area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/NZD Long Minimum entry requirements: • Break below area of value. • 1H impulse up above area of value. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GOLD? Gold remains in a strong uptrend, reflecting buyers' dominance in the market. However, at current levels, the risk of buying is high, and a price correction is likely. The best approach in this situation is to wait for a pullback and enter at optimal levels for a better risk-reward ratio. If the correction occurs and stabilizes at the identified level, the price is expected to rise at least to $3,000. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by HAMED_AZ
47
CHFJPY: Channel Down bottomed on oversold RSI.CHFJPY is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.519, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 33.207) while the strong selling wave hit today the bottom of the October 31st 2024 High. The last time the 1D RSI was oversold was on the December 02 bottom. The bullish wave that followed, exceeded the 0.786 Fibonacci level. We anticipate an indentical rebound (TP = 173.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
Gold going to new all time high read the caption Economists predict that Nonfarm Payrolls will rise by 170,000 jobs in January, following a 256,000-job increase in December. The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1% during the same period. Average hourly earnings, a key indicator of wage inflation, are expected to show a 3.8% year-over-year growth in January, slightly below the 3.9% increase recorded in December. After the January policy meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark rate within the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, the tone of the
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mrsam36
How Does a Carry Trade Work? How Does a Carry Trade Work? A carry trade is a popular forex trading strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differentials between two currencies, aiming to earn returns from the interest gap. This article explores what a carry trade is, its formula, and how the strategy works, helping traders understand its potential advantages and risks. Carry Trade: Definition A carry trade is a popular forex strategy where traders take advantage of the difference in interest rates between two currencies. It involves borrowing money in a currency with a low borrowing cost—this is known as the "funding currency"—and then converting that borrowed amount into another offering higher interest, called the "investment currency." This is done to earn the interest rate differential between the two. The Mechanics of a Forex Carry Trade A carry position involves a few key components that work together to create potential opportunities in the forex market. 1. The Funding Currency The first component is the currency that the trader borrows, the funding currency. Traders typically choose one with low interest costs because the amount to repay will be minimal. Common funding currencies include the Japanese yen (JPY) or the Swiss franc (CHF), as these often have low or even negative borrowing costs. 2. The Investment Currency The second component is the investment currency, which is the one into which the borrowed funds are converted. This is chosen because it offers a higher interest yield, providing an opportunity to earn returns from the interest rate differential. Popular investment currencies often include the Australian dollar (AUD) or the New Zealand dollar (NZD), as they tend to have higher borrowing costs. However, in recent years, emerging market currencies, like the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL), and South African rand (ZAR), have also been favoured due to their high interest yields. 3. Interest Rate Differential The core concept here is to capitalise on the interest rate differential between the funding and investment currency. If someone borrows in a currency with a 0.5% premium and invests in another offering a 4% yield, the differential (known as the "carry") is 3.5%. This differential represents the potential return, assuming there are no significant changes in the exchange rate. 4. Swaps and Rollovers Swaps and rollovers are key factors. When you hold a position overnight (roll it over), the difference in interest rates between the two currencies is either credited or debited to your account. This is because when you trade a forex pair, you're effectively borrowing one currency to buy another. The swap rate compensates for the interest rate difference. Positive Swap Rate: If the interest rate of the currency you are buying is higher than that you are selling, you might receive a positive swap rate, meaning you earn interest. Negative Swap Rate: Conversely, if the interest rate of the currency you're selling is higher than the one you're buying, you'll pay interest, leading to a negative swap rate. 5. Leverage Many traders use leverage to amplify their positions. Leverage allows them to borrow additional funds to expand the size of their investment. While this can potentially increase returns, it also magnifies risks. If the position moves against the trader, losses can quickly accumulate due to the leverage. 6. Market Fluctuations The price of the pair is a crucial factor in the yield of the differential. While the differential offers the potential for returns, any adverse price movement can negate these gains. For instance, if the investment currency depreciates relative to the funding currency, the trader could face losses when converting back to the funding currency. Conversely, if the investment currency appreciates relative to the funding currency, then they can potentially make an additional gain on top of their interest yield. 7. Transaction Fees and Spreads Traders must consider transaction fees and spreads, which are the differences between the buying and selling prices of a forex pair. These costs can reduce the overall gains of the operation. Wider spreads, particularly in less liquid forex pairs, can increase the cost of entering and exiting positions. In a carry position, these components interact continuously. A trader borrows in a low-interest-rate currency, converts the funds to a higher-yielding one, and aims to earn from the differential while carefully monitoring market movements, transaction costs, and swap rates. The overall approach is based on balancing the interest earned, fees, and potential pair’s price movements. Carry Trade: Formula and Example To calculate the potential return of a carry trade, traders use a basic formula: - Potential Return = (Investment Amount * Interest Rate Differential) * Leverage Let’s examine a carry trade example. Imagine someone borrows 10,000,000 Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate of 0.5% and uses these funds to invest in Australian dollars (AUD), which has a higher borrowing cost of 4.5%. The differential is 4% (4.5% - 0.5%). If the current exchange rate is 1 AUD = 80 JPY, converting 10,000,000 JPY results in 125,000 AUD (10,000,000 JPY / 80). They then use the 125,000 AUD to earn 4.5% interest annually: - 125,000 * 4.5% = 5,625 AUD The cost of borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.5% interest is: - 10,000,000 * 0.5% = 50,000 JPY Converted back to AUD at the original exchange price (1 AUD = 80 JPY), the interest cost is: - 50,000 JPY / 80= 625 AUD The net return is the interest earned minus the borrowing cost (for simplicity, we’ll exclude other transaction fees): - 5,625 AUD − 625 AUD = 5,000 AUD If the price changes, it can significantly impact the position’s outcome. For example, if the AUD appreciates against the JPY, moving from 80 to 85 JPY per AUD, the 125,000 AUD would now be worth 10,625,000 JPY (125,000 * 85). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader receives additional returns. Conversely, if the AUD depreciates to 75 JPY per AUD, the value of 125,000 AUD drops to 9,375,000 JPY (125,000 * 75). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader faces a loss. Types of Carry Trades: Positive and Negative Trades with yield differential can be classified into two types: positive and negative, each defined by the differential between the funding and investment currencies. Positive Carry Trade A positive carry trade occurs when the borrowing rate on the investment currency is higher than that of the funding one. For example, if a trader borrows in Japanese yen (JPY) at 0.5% and invests in Australian dollars (AUD) at 4.5%, the differential is 4%. This differential means they earn more interest on the invested currency than they pay on the borrowed one, potentially resulting in a net gain, especially if market movements are favourable. Negative Carry Trade A negative carry trade happens when the yield on the funding currency is higher than that on the investment. In this case, the trader would lose money on the rate differential. For example, borrowing in US dollars at 2% to invest in euros at 1% would result in a negative carry of -1%. Traders might still pursue negative yield differential trades to hedge other positions or take advantage of expected market movements, but the strategy involves more risk. How Can You Analyse Carry Trade Opportunities? To analyse opportunities, traders focus on several key factors to determine whether a carry position could be effective. 1. Differentials The primary factor here is the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Traders look for forex pairs where the investment currency offers a significantly higher interest return than the funding currency. This differential provides the potential returns from holding the position over time. 2. Economic Indicators Traders monitor economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment figures, as these can influence central banks' decisions on interest rates. A strong economy may lead to higher borrowing costs, making a pair more attractive for a yield differential position. Conversely, weak economic data could result in rate cuts, reducing the appeal of a currency. 3. Central Bank Policies Understanding central bank policies is crucial. Traders analyse statements from central banks, like the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, to gauge future rate changes. If a central bank hints at raising borrowing costs, it could present an opportunity for a positive carry transaction. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite This type of transaction often performs well in low-volatility environments. Traders assess market sentiment and risk appetite by analysing geopolitical events, market trends, and investor behaviour. Risks of a Carry Trade While carry trading can offer potential returns from borrowing cost differentials, they also come with significant risks that traders must consider. - Exchange Risk: If the investment currency depreciates against the funding one, it can wipe out the returns from the differential and result in losses. - Interest Rate Risk: Changes in the cost of borrowing by central banks can alter the differential, reducing potential returns or even creating a negative carry situation. - Leverage Risk: Many traders use leverage to amplify returns, but this also magnifies potential losses. A small adverse movement in pairs can push the trader out of the market. - Liquidity Risk: During periods of low market liquidity, exiting a position may become difficult or more costly, increasing the risk of loss. A Key Risk: Carry Trade Unwinding Unwinding happens when traders begin to exit their positions en masse, often due to changes in market conditions, such as increased volatility or a shift in risk sentiment. This essentially means exiting the investment and repurchasing the original currency. Unwinding can trigger rapid and significant price movements, particularly if many traders are involved, and lead to a much lower return if the exit is timed incorrectly. For example, if global markets face uncertainty or economic data points to a weakening economy, investors may seek so-called safer assets, leading to a swift exit from carry positions and a steep decline in the investment currency. The Bottom Line This type of strategy offers a way to take advantage of interest rate differentials between currencies, but it comes with its own set of risks. Understanding the mechanics and analysing opportunities is critical. Ready to explore yield differential trades in the forex market? Open an FXOpen account today to access advanced tools, low-cost trading, and more than 600 markets. Good luck! FAQ What Is a Carry Trade? A carry trade in forex meaning refers to a strategy where traders borrow in a low-interest currency (the "funding currency") and invest in a higher-interest one (the "investment currency") to earn returns from the differential. What Is the Carry Trade Strategy? The carry trade strategy consists of borrowing funds in a currency with a low interest rate and using those funds to invest in a currency that offers a higher interest rate. Traders then invest the borrowed funds in the higher-yielding one to earn returns from the borrowing cost differential. The strategy typically relies on both relatively stable forex prices and the interest differential remaining favourable. How Does the Japanese Carry Trade Work? The Japanese currency carry trade typically involves borrowing the Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate and converting it into another with a higher yield, like the Australian dollar (AUD). The aim is to take advantage of the gap in borrowing costs. What Is an Example of a Yen Carry Trade? An example of a yen carry position is borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.10% interest and converting it to AUD, which earns 4.35%. The trader takes advantage of the 4.25% differential, assuming favourable market conditions. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4
DXY: rebounding at the bottom of the Megaphone.The U.S. Dollar Index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.335, MACD = 0.03, ADX = 16.853) as it took a turnaround on the HL trendline of the 2 month Bullish Megaphone. The 4H MACD will form a Bullish Cross today and once the 4H MA50 breaks, we will have the buy trigger for the new bullish wave. We expect this to test at least the LH trendline (if not the R1 Zone), which is where January's wave peaked, marginally over the 0.786 Fibonacci. Go long (TP = 109.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
Gold confirm buy we see strong bull candle read the caption Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mrsam36
$GOOGL Stocks Sink on Alphabet Earnings; Gold Hits AllTime High Stocks Sink on Alphabet Earnings; Gold Hits All-Time High 📉✨ 1/9 Global stocks dipped after Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) missed earnings expectations, putting pressure on Wall Street futures. Investors are now questioning tech's growth outlook. 📉 Could this signal a broader tech revaluation? 2/9 Alphabet’s earnings disappointment impacted sentiment across markets, while some European stocks showed resilience. Novo Nordisk delivered positive earnings, highlighting sector-specific strength. 🏢📊 3/9 Currency Moves: The USD/JPY pair saw notable movement as the yen strengthened. Japan’s wage data came in higher than expected, fueling speculation of another rate hike. 💴 Could this be a turning point for the yen's momentum? 4/9 The dollar weakened against major currencies, driven by Japan’s wage growth data and broader market uncertainty. Currency traders, take note: further BOJ tightening may continue shifting capital flows. 📉 5/9 Gold Surge: The precious metal hit a record high today. A weaker dollar and heightened geopolitical risks are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. 🚀 Will this trend hold if market volatility persists? 6/9 Political surprise: President Trump made unexpected remarks about potential U.S. involvement in Gaza for economic development. Despite the shock value, markets largely shrugged off the news. 🗞️ Investors kept their eyes on the numbers instead. 7/9 Market Insights: Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ): Missed earnings shook tech stocks. USD/JPY: Yen gains signal a potential shift in forex markets. Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes prices to new highs. 8/9 Investors may need to reassess their tech positions in light of Alphabet’s performance. Meanwhile, forex traders could find opportunities in USD/JPY movements, and gold investors are riding a bullish wave. 🧭 9/9 What's your market outlook after today's moves? Vote now! 🗳️ Tech will rebound soon 📈 Volatility will dominate 🔄 Gold remains king of 2025 ✨
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by DCAChampion
3
EURUSD: 4H Bullish Cross not so bullish historically.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.247, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.205) and just formed a 4H Bullish Cross between the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200. This hasn't had a bullish effect in the past 12 months as the two times we saw it in 2024, it immediatelly market the top of the short term trend and caused pull backs to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently we will use it as an instant sell signal (TP = 1.02625). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
Gold weekly expected move read the caption The metal resumes higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 2766.3 and wave ii ended at 2744.78. Wave iii higher ended at 2798.55 and wave iv pullback ended at 2788.43. Expect wave v higher to end soon which completes wave (i) in higher degree. Then the metal should pullback in wave (ii) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 1.28.2025 low before it resumes higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 2730.23 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mrsam36
Strongest Reversal Candlestick Patterns For Gold & Forex In this educational article, we will discuss powerful reversal candlestick patterns that every trader must know. Bullish Engulfing Candle Bullish engulfing candle is one of my favourite ones. It usually indicates the initiation of a bullish movement after a strong bearish wave. The main element of this pattern is a relatively big body. Being bigger than the entire range of the previous (bearish) candle, it should completely "engulf" that. Such a formation indicates the strength of the buyers and their willingness to push the price higher. Bullish engulfing candle that I spotted on Gold chart gave a perfect bullish trend-following signal. Bearish Engulfing Candle The main element of this pattern is a relatively big body that is bigger than the entire range of the previous (bullish) candle. Such a formation indicates the strength of the sellers and their willingness to push the price lower. ________________________ Bullish Inside Bar Inside bar formation is a classic indecision pattern. It usually forms after a strong bullish/bearish impulse and signifies a consolidation . The pattern consists of 2 main elements: mother's bar - a relatively strong bullish or bearish candle, inside bars - the following candles that a trading within the range of the mother's bar. The breakout of the range of the mother's bar may quite accurately confirm the reversal. A bullish breakout of its range and a candle close above that usually initiates a strong bullish movement. Bearish Inside Bar A bearish breakout of the range of the mother's bar and a candle close below that usually initiates a strong bearish movement. Bearish breakout of the range of the mother's bar candlestick provided a strong bearish signal on EURUSD. ________________________ Doji Candle (Morning Star) By a Doji we mean a candle that has the same opening and closing price. Being formed after a strong bearish move, such a Doji will be called a Morning Star. It signifies the oversold condition of the market and the local weakness of sellers. Such a formation may quite accurately indicate a coming bullish movement. Doji Candle (Evening Star) Being formed after a strong bullish move, such a Doji will be called an Evening Star. It signifies the overbought condition of the market and the local weakness of buyers. Such a formation may quite accurately indicate a coming bearish movement. Above is a perfect example of a doji candle and a consequent bearish movement on Silver. I apply these formations for making predictions on financial markets every day. They perfectly work on Forex, Futures, Crypto markets and show their efficiency on various time frames. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5