XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!In last weeks KOG Report we said we were in long holding positions from below. We suggested we would like to see another attempt on the lower support regions which the 4H and 12H charts were suggesting due the potential double tops. We said we had higher levels of 1817 and 1824 which we would be our immediate targets and this is where we would reduce our long exposure only holding a portion of any long trades we had from below. We said we would be looking for the higher price regions of 1830-35 and above that 1850-55 for our short entries. The lower support levels held which we had shown on the charts and it gave traders a good opportunity to long the market into our immediate targets which were both completed by market close.
A great end to the year for KOG members.
So what can we expect in the week ahead?
We would like to see Gold get some more buyers in a little higher so we are anticipating a challenge around the 1830-35 price region. We can expect this to either open with aggressive bullish momentum to target that area straight away, find resistance and make a move down, or ideally come down towards the lower support levels and then begin another incline to target that level. Please note, breaking this level will push the price to more gains potentially targeting that higher trend line resistance and key area of 1850-55 where we hope to see resistance again.
Our plan:
If the market opens and targets that higher resistance level of 1830-35 we’ll be looking to short it back down towards the lower support regions of 1815-10 as the first initial target and below that 1800-1797. We have a target at 1785 so we would like to see this achieved at some point during the week. We also have a higher target of 1833 so there is a chance we open, hit that level and then take a small decline from around that region to the lower support levels then push back up. What we want to see is how the price reacts at the higher resistance levels and how they hold as we think these resistance levels would be good opportunities to test the short trades. The higher resistance level is 1850-55 (potentially just short of this region), this level we feel could be a possibility so play it safe.
We are still bearish on this as long as its creating lower highs so for us to go long again we would need to see the extreme lower levels acting as support to take the trades. Rather we would like to see these higher level achieved and test the short trades to hold for the longer term. This is Gold, so you know it won't make it easy, thats why lots sizes and money management are really important.
Support levels:
1824
1820
1810-12
and below that 1800-1797.
Resistance levels:
1830-35
1838
1845-7
1850-55
1866-70
Yearly timeframe:
We have added the yearly chart to show the closing candle for the year. You can see that it failed to close above last years closing price where it rejected. It also shows the potential range for the months ahead going into 2022 where the lower support stands at around the 1670 price point. If you’ve been following our analyses you’ll know we have a target lower than that so based on the higher timeframe, its looking like we could be in for a few bearish months on Gold.
Monthly Timeframe:
We’ve published this chart before and we’ll stick to the plan on this. We’re looking for the lows below the 1600 price point as long as the price stays below the 1885-95 price point. There is a chance they can drive the price upwards towards that level which will still maintain the structure and still give us a lower low. This is a long term timeframe so can take months to play out, that’s if they even take it there. This is published for reference only to give you an idea of what we’re looking at.
In all honesty this is going to be a difficult one to predict, it’s the opening of a new yearly candle and we’ll see the return of volume back into the markets after the festive period. We’ve seen the markets open in the new year with some very aggressive movement so please be careful, movement that looks out of the ordinary please stay out of it, wait for the price to settle and then look to take your positions. If you really want to see what can happen take a look at the opening few days of the markets last year.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
