📊 What is Market Seasonality ? 🎯 Seasonality refers to particular time frames when stocks/sectors/indices are subjected to and influenced by recurring tendencies that produce patterns that are apparent in the investment valuation.
🎯 Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. Any predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period is said to be seasonal.
📊 What is a Seasonality Forecast?
In time series data, seasonality refers to the presence of variations which occur at certain regular intervals either on a weekly basis, monthly basis, or even quarterly (but never up to a year). Various factors may cause seasonality - like a vacation, weather, and holidays
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✅ You can use the Market Seasonality as an extra fundamental confluence for the price, we have 2 market seasonalities bullish and bearish. If a price has bullish seasonality it means the pariticular asset will tend to rise during that cycle and viceversa. Market Seasonality (MS) is a good tool to have in your arsenal but only if you are trading on a mid-long term perspective. You can't trade using the market seasonality on a scalping or a intra-day basis because it makes no sense.
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Forextradingzones
Survival Rules in TRADING 📉📉📉📉 Survival rules in trading for newbies, if you respect those rules i can make a bet you wound't lose your account as the majority of traders are.
📉 The key word there is IF YOU RESPECT
✅ 1. Always trade with a stop loss
✅ 2. Have a pre-determined risk on each trade no more then 1%
✅ 3. Don't move your stop loss if the price is not going in your favour
✅ 4. Don't add to losing positions, only viceversa. Add to your winning positions
✅ 5. You have to increase your risk only if you are in profit on your account, decrease your risk when you are losing and increase it when you are winning.
Hope that was usefull for your trading plan.
Forex Market ✅✅✅
✅ KEY TAKEAWAYS
The foreign exchange (also known as FX or forex) market is a global marketplace for exchanging national currencies against one another.
Market participants use forex to hedge against international currency and interest rate risk, to speculate on geopolitical events, and to diversify portfolios, among several other reasons.
Major players in this market tend to be financial institutions like commercial banks, central banks, money managers and hedge funds.
Global corporations use forex markets to hedge currency risk from foreign transactions.
Individuals (retail traders) are a very small relative portion of all forex volume, and mainly use the market to speculate and day trade.
✅ Who Trades Forex?
The forex market not only has many players but many types of players. Here we go through some of the major types of institutions and traders in forex markets:
📊 Commercial & Investment Banks
The greatest volume of currency is traded in the interbank market. This is where banks of all sizes trade currency with each other and through electronic networks. Big banks account for a large percentage of total currency volume trades. Banks facilitate forex transactions for clients and conduct speculative trades from their own trading desks.
When banks act as dealers for clients, the bid-ask spread represents the bank's profits. Speculative currency trades are executed to profit on currency fluctuations. Currencies can also provide diversification to a portfolio mix.
📊 Central Banks
Central banks, which represent their nation's government, are extremely important players in the forex market. Open market operations and interest rate policies of central banks influence currency rates to a very large extent.
A central bank is responsible for fixing the price of its native currency on forex. This is the exchange rate regime by which its currency will trade in the open market. Exchange rate regimes are divided into floating, fixed and pegged types.
Any action taken by a central bank in the forex market is done to stabilize or increase the competitiveness of that nation's economy. Central banks (as well as speculators) may engage in currency interventions to make
their currencies appreciate or depreciate.
For example, a central bank may weaken its own currency by creating additional supply during periods of long deflationary trends, which is then used to purchase foreign currency. This effectively weakens the domestic currency, making exports more competitive in the global market.
Central banks use these strategies to calm inflation. Their doing so also serves as a long-term indicator for forex traders.
📊 Investment Managers and Hedge Funds
Portfolio managers, pooled funds and hedge funds make up the second-biggest collection of players in the forex market next to banks and central banks. Investment managers trade currencies for large accounts such as pension funds, foundations, and endowments.
An investment manager with an international portfolio will have to purchase and sell currencies to trade foreign securities. Investment managers may also make speculative forex trades, while some hedge funds execute speculative currency trades as part of their investment strategies.
📊 Multinational Corporations
Firms engaged in importing and exporting conduct forex transactions to pay for goods and services. Consider the example of a German solar panel producer that imports American components and sells its finished products in China. After the final sale is made, the Chinese yuan the producer received must be converted back to euros. The German firm must then exchange euros for dollars to purchase more American components.
Companies trade forex to hedge the risk associated with foreign currency translations. The same German firm might purchase American dollars in the spot market, or enter into a currency swap agreement to obtain dollars in advance of purchasing components from the American company in order to reduce foreign currency exposure risk.
Additionally, hedging against currency risk can add a level of safety to offshore investments.
📊 Individual Investors
The volume of forex trades made by retail investors is extremely low compared to financial institutions and companies. However, it is growing rapidly in popularity. Retail investors base currency trades on a combination of fundamentals (i.e., interest rate parity, inflation rates, and monetary policy expectations) and technical factors (i.e., support, resistance, technical indicators, price patterns).
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Tips for Trading Currency Pairs ✅📉 Trading Currency Pairs
I will try to explain in this post what you should look at when you are starting trading the Forex Market (Currency Market )
✅ Choose Liquid Pairs
Choose liquid pairs so you will have all your orders filled easily, dont trade pairs with low Liquidity as those can impact your trading results. EURUSD / GBPUSD / AUDUSD / NZDUSD etc and don't trage USDZAR / USDRON / USDBRL and other exotic pairs
✅ Analyze Fundamentals
Fundamentals drive the markets especially in the Forex Market, take a look at the country's monetary policy are they hawkish or doveish on a certain currency, also take a look at inflation, nfp, unemploymenyt, gdp as those affect the market as well.
✅ Determening the Leverage
My recommend leverage for newbies is something around 1-30 / 1-50 so you wound't over trade.
✅ Trading Strategy
Always ensure you have a trading strategy when you will start to trade, look at those things such as market structure, key psychological levels, fiibonacci, moving averages to build a trading strategy.
✅ Choose your Trading Timeframe
You have to know what trading style you are trading, is this scalping on the lower time frame or highertimeframe position trading. Ensure you have this noted in your trading plan
Plan Before Execute 📉📉📉✅ Plan Before Execute - It is very important when you stard trading financial markets to have a plan that you follow, no plan means you dont know what you are doing and where you are going.
✅ Have an entry strategy - it is very important to know your edge, your edgea means when you enter the trades based on what confluences. Couple confluences or entry strategies are trading with the market strucutre + key leveles + fibonaci retracement or moving averages to generate trading ideas
✅ Use Stop Losses to Protect Capital - The first goal of a trader should be capital protection not capital growth, always use the stop loss on each trade. Use Take Profit - You are making money when you are closing the position, its also very important when you are closing the trade. Always place your take profits in areas where price gives a reverse signal. For example you entered from a support area with a BUY you put your TAKE PROFIT near a resistance area where price could reverse
What do you think ? Comment below..
Bearish Engulfing Pattern 📉📉📉Bearish engulfing pattern is a technical chart pattern that signals lower prices to come. The pattern consists of an up (white or green) candlestick followed by a large down (black or red) candlestick that eclipses or "engulfs" the smaller up candle.
✅ A bearish engulfing pattern is a hint that a market may have formed a top. Any engulfing pattern below the daily time frame should be ignored. These patterns should only be traded at swing highs. The engulfing candle must break key support to be considered “tradable
✅ Bullish engulfing patterns are a confirmation that more buyers want to join the uptrend. On the other side, a bearish engulfing pattern gives confirmation for more sellers joining the short side
✅ An engulfing pattern is a strong reversal signal. There are bullish and bearish engulfing patterns and they are composed of two candlesticks – one bullish and one bearish. ... It is no
Power of Consistency 📉📉📉📉 Consistency Power
🔰 Don't focus on short term results when trading, it's a marathon not a sprint. You can't become elite traders overnight
🔰 Don't care about short term results and single trade outcome, only look at the weekly,monthly results as they are not random as daily results,a single trade means nothing dont be anxious and change something in your system only if you have more than 100 trades journaled so you know what works and what doesn't
🔰 Don't try to hit home runs aka BIG RETURNS OVERNIGHT it's a gambler short term thinking and their account have zero durability overtime
🔰 Focus on risk management and improve your edge over the market on a daily basis both technical and mental/emotional
LONG TERM over SHORT TERM ✅
JPY INDEX - MASSIVE LONGS on GJ, UJ, CJJPY index just broke our TL, this little situation has presented a lot of LONG opportunities on the IJPY quotes currencies. We are patiently waiting for the 61% fib to get taken then we have ourselves a massive LONG opportunities on GBPJPY, CADJPY, USDJPY.
LIKE AND FOLLOW to see my follow up post on the exact entry and targets on those pairs. This can be an easy 1000pips profit.
RSI Trading Indicator 📉📉📉🎯 RSI - Relative Strenght Index
What Is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100.
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition (kindly see the photos attached)
Survival Rules in TRADING 📉📉📉‼️ Survival rules in trading for newbies, if you respect those rules i can make a bet you wound't lose your account as the majority of traders are.
‼️ The key word there is IF YOU RESPECT
✅ 1. Always trade with a stop loss
✅ 2. Have a pre-determined risk on each trade no more then 1%
✅ 3. Don't move your stop loss if the price is not going in your favour
✅ 4. Don't add to losing positions, only viceversa. Add to your winning positions
✅ 5. You have to increase your risk only if you are in profit on your account, decrease your risk when you are losing and increase it when you are winning.
Hope that was usefull for your trading plan.
Liquidity Concept 📈Hi guys! I would like to briefly explain my strategy, I use liquidity to understand where should market go .
🏦 Liquidity is basically a zone in the market where a lot of stops are located both retail/ institutional, I will look to enter near that area but only after the manipulation on the buy-side or sell-side liquidity to all my trades with "Smart Money". as known as "Wall Street"
You can separate the Liquidity Concepts in two areas.
✅ Buy Side Liquidity - area of the price where sellers put their stop loss, its located on old highs, equal highs (Resistance) above double tops, above key psychological numbers
✅ Sell Side Liquidity - area of the price where buyers put their stop losses, usually below old lows, below equal lows(support), below psychological key levels.
‼️ REMEMBER
Dumb Money sell at high
Smart Money SELL ABOVE THE HIGH
Dumb Money buy at low
Smart Money BUY BELOW THE LOW
Using this concept as i explained you will have less stop losses because you will allign your trades with institutional orderflow.
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT! (Weekly)Weekly Chart:
Camelot members have been taught how to trade the triangles to the best of probability using KOG zones and level to level trading methods. This chart is very interesting and if it follows what we think its going to do then please look out for the following levels. The 1914-35 region is important for the price to stay below if we’re going to see a resumption of the bearish move and then continue to the overdue KOG target of 1770! Yes, it a long way off but we’re going to keep it in mind knowing that it can take weeks/months to get there if it wants to.
This chart shows the weekly structure with the trend and the Triangle in play. So for coming weeks these are the regions that are important, the 1854 level support where a break and close of this level will see the price then face further declines into the 1835-30 key liquidity region or, a break and close on the weekly of the 1915-35 price region on the weekly candle which will result in more bullish movement in Gold leading to a test of the recent high and potentially further up.
Together with the daily reviews and levels we share please add these levels to your charts so you're aware of what the price can do and what it can achieve.
We’ve had a lot of traders ask us what time frames we use for our analysis, this is the reason we’re sharing the weekly, daily and 4H time frame analysis, so you can see we start with the longer term charts and then work our way down. This is what a lot of analyst will call a top down analysis of the markets, simply starting from the higher time frames and working your way down.
Daily Chart:
We have shared this a few times but this time we’re going to go into a bit more depth. You can see the trend and you can also see the daily levels which have been plotted on the highs and the lows of the chart. What we’re looking for here whether the price comes down first to create the lower highs or if the price goes up first to test the top of the trendline and then comes down to create a lower high. We have to keep in mind and be aware that at some point this structure will be broken, that will either be to the upside or the downside.
KOGs view on that at the moment is its too early to tell, we will use this chart to guide use using the levels and the trend together with Excalibur to make the most of what we’re seeing.
Fore reference only.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
🎯 Trading Plan Questions I will try to show you in this post how my intra-day trading plan works and what exactly do i use in terms of risk,pairs,timeframes.
✅ What are my trading goals ?
My intraday trading goal is to close the day in GREEN, but if i see no opportunities i dont push the buttons just to get to a profitabile day.
Focus on making 1% a day this means 22% a month that is a lot just do your math and understand the power of consistency
✅ What timeframe do i use ?
My intra-day timeframes that i am using are H1/M30/M15 you need to
know which is your higher timeframe and execution time frame for me its M15, neither higher or lower.
✅ How long to hold trades ?
Usually in 80% of the trades i hit the stop loss or take profit order before the day ends, i can left a open position overnight only if it's secured risk.
✅ Which Currency Pairs to follow ?
As you are trading intra-day you need volatility and low spreads, i trade the most volatilite instruments such as nasdaq, gold, oil, gbpusd, gbpjpy, bitcoin on the session opening as the spread is lower during those hours.
✅ What is the Risk per Trade ?
When you are starting an intra-day account you have to know first of all what will be the risk you take in every trade, the session risk and finally the daily risk.
It's very important to RESPECT the daily risk rule as this keeps you in the game when the market conditions are bad.
What is your Trading Plan ??
GBP/USD Outlook (21 February 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across.
The UK flash PMI data will be released later at 1730 (GMT+8).
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.3 revised from 56.9)
Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 54.1 revised from 53.3)
Currently, GBP/USD is testing the resistance zone of 1.36000 and the next support zone is at 1.33800.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD if it rejects the resistance zone of 1.36000.
GBP/JPY Outlook (21 February 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY traded into the support zone of 156.000.
The UK flash PMI data will be released later at 1730 (GMT+8).
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 57.3 revised from 56.9)
Flash Services PMI (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 54.1 revised from 53.3)
Currently, GBP/JPY is testing the support zone of 156.000 and the next resistance zone is at 158.000.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it breaks the support zone of 156.000.
GBP/NZD 4HR BUY SET UPHi TRADERS this is my trade set up for the GBP/NZD for the new week ahead
GBP/NZD I am expecting a rejection at strong support zone
look for a drop to order zone lined off on chart then if it meets your criteria for a trade then execute buy trade
This is my analysis only please trade with caution and risk management in place
good luck for this weeks trading
please like comment and follow
EUR/USD Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across.
The eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data (Actual: 48.6, Forecast: 54.4, Previous: 49.4) released yesterday indicated a further decline in the surveyed investors and analysts’ sentiment on the economic outlook for eurozone.
The eurozone flash employment change q/q data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the number of jobs added into the eurozone economy during the fourth quarter of 2021. The flash GDP q/q data released showed continued expansion in the eurozone economy at the same pace.
Flash employment change q/q (Actual: 0.5%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
Flash GDP q/q (Actual: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%)
Currently, EUR/USD is trading towards the resistance zone of 1.13800 and the next support zone is at 1.12000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/USD only if it breaks the resistance zone of 1.13800.
GBP/USD Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD bounced up from the key level of 1.35.
The UK employment data released yesterday indicated continued decline in the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in February. Meanwhile, average earnings rose while unemployment rate remained unchanged.
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.3%, Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%)
Claimant Count Change (Actual: -31.9K, Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K)
Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.1%Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)
The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8).
GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.33800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.36000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD.
GBPJPY Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY bounced off the support zone of 156.000.
The UK employment data released yesterday indicated continued decline in the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in February. Meanwhile, average earnings rose while unemployment rate remained unchanged.
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.3%, Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%)
Claimant Count Change (Actual: -31.9K, Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K)
Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.1%Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)
The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8).
GBP/JPY’s next support zone is at 156.000 and the next resistance zone is at 158.000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY.