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Ethereum - A Contender for the Crown, or Impending Ice Age?One of the fellows following me asked me about Ethereum, and in the process of answering his question, I started on the analysis and figured I'd just finish it and post it. Ethereum is a coin that I was really interested in when I first came back to crypto in July. As time has gone on and all of this bubble has played out, I have become increasingly bearish on it for the following reasons. Ethereum is a solid project and Vitalik is a very capable and respectable guy. That being said, the value of this token intrinsically is actually pretty small, as one can quite easily see that the reason Ether has scaled in value is from demand and hype from the ICO phase, along with the potential that Ether could possibly dethrone Bitcoin's first mover advantage. The ICO phase is now completely destroyed and will never return. The bag holders it has left behind will never return to crypto and never be able to recover their losses, and that's not even counting those who got ripped off amidst scams. It seems virtually none of the dApps that have come out are particularly groundbreaking or real-world usage to justify the enormous market cap they were once demanding. Arguably the best coin in ERC20 was OmiseGO, and that token is in brutal falling knife decline. Worse is, when it comes to the idea of "The Flippening", Ethereum has a fundamental problem in this upcoming challenge because Bitcoin Core (BCore)/Blockstream has planted the BGold fork with a Proof of Work change to GPU mining. This means that if the day comes where the Bitcoin Core blockchain loses hashpower to Bitcoin Cash or Segwit2x and BCore parachutes to BGold, Ethereum will eat nuclear pain via multiple red candles because it'll lose its GPU mining network to BGold as BGold pumps in profitability. Furthermore, think about it: What's the difference between Ethereum and Ethereum Classic? Ethereum Classic is ~$10 and Ethereum is $300. I realize the history of the fork and the differences between the two, but there is absolutely _not_ 2900% benefit to ETH over ETC, and so ETC pricing could be something that ETH returns to in the future. Looking at the technicals we're in an ascending triangle and Ether should be building pressure to retest the ATH line. Ideally, the ATH line should be flat, but we can see the last run towards $400+ was anemic even amidst bubble mania. Right now, on the 6H chart, we have a red kumo twist, it has broken the bull run trendline from $16, and both MAs of Willy21 and Stoch RSI show downward, collapsing momentum, and momentum just logged its first purple tick. (Edit: This has changed since I prepared this post last night). All this is great, but keep in mind, this pattern is not surprising for consolodation either, attracts a lot of short sellers, and can be squeezed very hard. With everyone throwing their hat in the ring for who can become "Bitcoin" in November, I'm sure Ether will make itself known. But right now, neither price actions nor fundamentals are looking particularly healthy for it. I wrote this last night and didn't publish it. In the mean time, Ethereum just had a nice spike and may be waking up for exactly the scenario above. A breakout above $325 would be indicative of a new run. However, for the size of breakout it is (small), it's extended the oscillators pretty far, so it may end up failing and breaking down quicker than it looks, and it may continue to break out upwards.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by RiversAndMountains
11
Bitcoin Cash - Bitcoin Spirit, $450 Body; Think Tiny BullImportant Reading for Anyone Interested in Bitcoin Cash: www.reddit.com A history of the Bitcoin community over the last few years and how this day came to be. It's absolutely worth your time to read all of it, all the links, and make up your mind as to where you want to stand at this stage of history. I will admit that my estimate in entry points was completely wiped out by tremendous bullish momentum. As of writing, South Korean volume was $557MM today for Bitcoin Cash, whereas Bitcoin Core was $266MM on HitBTC and $152MM on Bitfinex. If you think about the implications of this as the November fork drama approaches... The advice that I will give you to you on Bitcoin Cash is most simple: do not short Bitcoin Cash. Why? It is a tiny bull that has yet to grow into its full form. Think those little sponge animals that when you throw them into water, poof. Shorting Bitcoin Cash is a fantastic way to get a call from your good friend margin. The $500 mark is a big mark as it represents both a former point of resistance and the return above a historical downtrend line. If it breaks through that, next target is $549 previous resistance, which I would assume would be smashed through, and then after that $730. When to buy? Buy a dip. Make sure you have strong hands. It _will_ dip. It _will_ retrace. Just keep in mind when bull runs are very manic, they can go up in a straight line for a long time with very few retracements. This is the benefit of strong hands. Frankly, buying a breakout is fine too. Remember, in people's minds, and in reality, this is something that is very very much Bitcoin and is still selling for $400-$500 while Core is selling for $6,000. Once this hits a more feverish pitch, the fib uptrace lines are going to be smashed through as the blue (green) candles are straight lines. Segwit2X Futures have been moving on HitBTC at $1,000 today: coinmarketcap.com . Bitcoin Cash as it stands today is worth tremendously more than Segwit2x with what it has, where it came from, and the fact it has first-mover advantage against other forks. Think about it.
BLong
by RiversAndMountains
22
Temporary pullback to new ATH before B2X forkCompletely new to trading (august 2017) & this is my first prediction. Would love some input. I believe we will continue the bullish run after a short pullback, and that we will se new ATH before the B2X fork. We will probably see more people buy in before the fork than what we saw for BTG, followed by the now typical sell off. We just tested the 23% retracement and might se a head and shoulders pattern forming before retracing to 38% followed by new ATH (between 6500-7500 USD). I'm considering placing a buy order at 5000 USD (and a smaller safety one around 4600 in case there is a flash crash and I'm not quick to respond). And maybe locking in some profits around 6500-7500, just after the fork (or before if I see a good alt deal). Thoughts?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by emjo
1
Moment of correctionThe BTC performed the 5 waves of Elliot respecting the fibonacci levels. Now we enter a time of correction where the price must correct at least up to 38% of all the high movement marked by the blue LTA. It should drop down to the 4900's to recover a little and fall back down to the 4150's. Making the ABC move. It can happen to correct stronger and reach lower values. But we will only be sure after finishing the first movement (Wave A). With the fork of BTG and the fork of Segwit2x that will happen in the middle of November it is possible to give force for a quick correction and to rise again after stabilization after fork of segwit2x. Short is opened at the minimum break of 10/24/2017 and closed at the signal of the wave A completion diary. To open new shorts at the 61% correction of wave A and fetch the target of 4150 USD.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by FernandoBittencourt
Bitcoin Cash is the Greatest Bear Trap of All TimeI won't give much preamble about Bitcoin Cash. You can make your own decision about which side to stand on with the information that is available to you. That being said, as a trader, you should pay attention to price action first, fundamentals second, and politics and rumors literally not even at all. The reality is, Bitcoin Gold is a scam: twitter.com The reality is, right now, Segwit 2x is not in much better of a situation regarding their fork being adopted by exchanges. The reality is, Bitcoin Cash has been a functional hardfork backed, sustained, and supported by some of the biggest players in crypto. Bitcoin Cash is also going to be hard forking a la' Ethereum Byzantine/Metropolis on November 13 for a code update to fix the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment: www.reddit.com Fundamentals: check Bitcoin Cash is in a giant symmetrical triangle after its pump to $850+ in August and its slow slide down ever since. That being said, we have a beautiful formation with bullish consolidation towards the squeeze point as shown by OBV and Willy21. Also of note is WWV evidences that we've had extended periods of distribution, with some of the most violent distribution volume being after the October 17 dump. The October 17 pump was also the second largest accumulation since the August pump, yet, price remains healthy and has stayed with the trendline rather than breaking down like IOTA. The first projection from a non-manic pump-high in the triangle produces a target that conveniently lines up with the 0.786 fib almost perfectly. Price action: check Politics: who cares when you can double your money on the first leg up and you're dealing with something that has a known price-ceiling of $6,200+? If price breaks out to $360-400 and holds, expect one of the most amazing events in history to occur. If I am right about what is about to happen, Bitcoin Cash will vortex in a tremendous amount of new users to crypto. Bitcoin Cash will resurrect what the Bitcoin community was in earlier, less bubble-collapsed time periods. Bitcoin Cash is the biggest bear trap of all time. What you think can happen and what is actually happening are two completely different things.
BLong
by RiversAndMountains
5
Bitcoin - The Calm Before the StormDuring the run from 5.8 to 6.2k there were substantially less margin longs on Finex, averaging in the range of 20-24k as opposed to 30-35k on the way from $4900. General bullishness, velocity, price action, and confidence in the current situation has come to a taper. It's like the end of a party when you aren't that drunk anymore, are pretty tired, someone threw up, they turn the music off and the lights on, and tell everyone that you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. The volume, momentum, and time we took to get here has reached a feverish pitch. How do we get to $6,500 and $7,500 under current velocity? It seems as hard as trying to climb the last few thousand meters of Everest. The reality is the pattern we are within since the original bump to $5800 is a rising wedge. The pattern at $5900 - $6200 was an ascending channel, which brokedown, and formed an even steeper ascending channel, which is quickly running out of steam, volume, and momentum. It is already within the oversold area of Willy21 while price can barely hold $6000, and WWV shows that all those coins that were bought on the way up are like an avalanche waiting to be triggered. We closed the 4H, 12H, and Weekly candles below $6,000. The pump ran out of steam and things are quiet. This is not a good sign. In order to maintain parabolic price movement and gains you must maintain parabolic volume. With the majority of the market losing money every movement, that is exceedingly more and more difficult. What goes up, must come down. OBV indicates that the upward momentum is genuinely having an exceedingly difficult time The terrifying reality of where we are right now is we visited $5100 only 4 days ago. If this pattern breaks down and falls through the cloud the real panic will first have a chance to bounce at $4850-$4950, our previous ATH. Failing that we will be facing prior resistance line at the $4,600 range. In my opinion, it is exceedingly difficult for Bitcoin to maintain its Northern movement without a shakeout and a reset. FOMO is your enemy. Remember, this is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a raging long-term bull, but it cann't go straight up.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RiversAndMountains
3
Technical, probabilistic and fundamentalist analysis for AVT/USDAventus is a digital currency to facilitate the payment of tickets for events, something very common for us, but still obsolete. As you know, there is ticket traffic, lots of banditry behind and lots of money involved. AVT is a relatively new currency, and was listed on BitFinex on 10/10. Its value ranged from under $ 4 to up to $ 6, this already shows a public interest only for the idea. In addition, the amount of currencies of the Aventus is of 10 million, and only 6 million are in circulation. Her MarketCap is still low, at $ 20 million. Taking into account that all Bitfinex coins have more than $ 100,000.00, minus AVT and Santiment (I also advise), I believe that Aventus will reach this value soon. It is a very volatile currency, this attracts risky investors. If it reaches 100 million MarketCap, it will reach approximately $ 17.5. But I do not believe that it will not be so easy to get home from the $ 6.6 dollars, which indicates an increase of almost 100% of the current value. Not to mention that for this, we need only another 20 million dollars in the MarketCap to double the price. Now if you calculate how many Bitcoins circulate in Bitfinex ($ 500 million dollars), and estimate each of the Bitcoin forks generating about 5% profit each, we total about 10% of the total Bitfinex Bitcoins available for users. Being that 75% of the users invests Fork profit in altcoins, then we will have: (500,000,000.00 * 0.1) * 0.75 = $ 37,500,000.00. Now let's see which coins have the lowest marketcap in Bitfinex (preferred by those who re-invested the profit of the fork): SANTIMENT AND AVENTUS . Santiment today has about 17.5 million dollars capitalized. If we see, the bills hit EXACTLY. Of the 37.5 million, they would probably invest 20 million in Aventus , doubling its value. And the remaining 17.5, at Santiment, doubling its value. Obviously this will not happen overnight. But I very much believe that this will happen by the end of the year. And another: If you think that the re-investors of the profit of the Fork will prefer IOTA, I do not agree. IOTA is very still, it is always the same, it has not been high up for a long time, lots of news and nothing shocks the market, many Bots acting on it, many whales holding the price ... So it is almost 100% sure that they will invest in others. And if you do not invest in IOTA, but divide the investments into Aventus and 4 other currencies, we will still have an approximate 50% increase in price, and that would surely get the attention of other investors. Not to mention that if Aventus closes any partnership, it is GUARANTEED success. A hug to all, I hope you have not been confused. Forecast by Leonardo Bermudes , trader and CEO of Berman Investimentos (Brazil) .
ALong
by BermanInvestimentos
2
OMG/USD - Prediction Before BTC ForkThe price is stable within a horizontal channel . Hardly the price will leave the channel before the Fork, with that we can open a purchase order at 7.8 following our bearish trend line . If the price exceeds 50% of the channel in 7.9, the next target will be the resistance in 8.2 , where we will place the sales order. There is also a low probability that the price will break the bullish trend line and reach support . But probably up to the price the Fork will reach our target. And in the worst case, leave an order with double the primary order at 7.16 , which is the long-term support .
BITFINEX:OMGUSDLong
by BermanInvestimentos
QTUMBTC; falling wedge w bullish indicators; FA & TAEP: Below .00175 TP1: .002102 TP2: .002984 TP3: .003488 SL: .00165 QTUM has had a lot of volatility since it hit bittrex making huge ups and downs. On a fundamental level we have a currently about 20% of QTUM tokens now being staked, and that number is growing. New exchanges are and have been added (bitfinex, and some japanese and korean exchanges still coming), as well as WeChat and Qhola wallets in Q4. Since we fell below the .002 price level we can see that we are not in a descending triangle, but actually a falling wedge. The majority of falling wedges to break upward so we have that in our favor. A much better set up than a descending triangle which normally break down. At points 1. and 2. we see lower low in price, with OBV failing to make a lower low indicating upward movement. On the OBV graph the blue box marks where we expected it to go. RSI shows an equal value compared to the last dip in price which is a weaker indicator for bullish movement, but a bullish signal none the less. We do see a series of lower lows in the RSI that are forming along a trend line. If RSI falls below this line it is an indicator that our trade was bad. Normally that would be a stop loss signal for me, but in this case we would be in the oversold region can add to our position on consolidation or when price forms a lower low. If you want to set a stop loss it can be at .00165. Expect RSI to form a double bottom on the daily chart as it has done in the past before moving upwards. This may be as late as October 25th after BTCG forks. The reason I am not 100% long on this trade is because of BT2X fork upcoming in November. It is not yet clear if we will in fact fork, or if alts will rally after BTCG fork and before BT2X. This is not trading advise, just my personal trade. Educational only. Trade at your own risk and do your own research.
by Maximilian108
If I just had more BTC to spend...Those market insanity occasions are when I'd love my btc balance to be higher, so that I could buy more alts. Everything is going down, and the best altcoins aren't spared. I'll give you my short list, which could be way longer: OMG WTC LINK BNB NEO ARK MTL LSK I believe they're all sure fires, which will go back up once the craze ends. I don't exclude them going down further before Nov Fork, and that's the reason why you should average your buys in time. BTW, everything below fib .50 is gold to me. If OMG goes @.618 retracement, I'll definitely pour what I have left in it!! Happy trading everyone!
by lukescream
TWX - Finding the reversal areasThere is always much to learn. Something I have learned very important from Shane was, to observe what's going on, how price behave and what it does where. Lot's of questions to ask. I drew the two narrow resistance lines about 1 month ago, just to observe once more, how price will react on them. Isn't it amazing? To catch such zones, one may ask the chart: - where is something important? - what did it to the old structures? - context? - did it break hard, slow and where is the close? ...of course, there is much more you can ask the chart to find out more. And if the people around you think you are going nuts, then you know that you are in the perfect synch with the market by talking to it to gather important information. ;-) P! - no, I did not tradet it blindly. But now i have a handle to trade it...let's observe.
T
by Tr8dingN3rd