ES - S&P Update shows correct assumption, but with time-delayThe dashed arrow comes from the prior post.
As we can see, we cannot expect the market do immediately what we wish.
But at least we have a clue, how good our assumption, tools & systems are.
Now, we are at multiple resistance points, with ES below the centerline.
Most of the time this is a no brainer, and my shorts are already in and working.
Since I also expect the VIX to rise more (...as a natural function of faster declining markets), I have Vega-Hedged my positions and my options portfolio is now pretty neutral.
Looking forward for the decline in the following days...
P!
FORK
RUT - Russel @ decision point - Russel an EntscheidungpunktNot much to say here - if it can break the actual pressing, then we probably will see RUT climbing to new highs.
The downside seems harder to break, since we can see lot's of support.
However - neutral to light skewed positions are not a bad idea IMO.
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Hier gibt's nicht viel zu sagen - Schafft es der Markt das aktuelle Pressing zu durchbrechen, werden wir höchstwahrscheinlich neue Hochs sehen.
Für die Short Seite wird es meiner Meinung nach schwieriger, da wir etlichen support haben.
Wie auch immer - neutrale bis leicht ge-Skewete positionen sind meiner Meinung nach keine schlechte Idee.
P!
SNAP - Is SNAP on its way to the U-MLH?No clear trend in the daily, but we can identify the flow in the lower timeframes.
Here we can see how we can use different forks and the A/R channel to extract information.
Rules telling me, that this share wants to go north. And indeed, chances are high that price will reach the U-MLH, as our rule framework teaches.
A significant close below the centerline would negate this trade idea.
P!
SBUX - Starbux's caffein sine wavesI see these two sine waves as you can see, market on the chart.
In my head, this could play out as follow:
- filling the GAP
- wipe out the longs who placed their stop below the minor sine wave
- pullback and...
- ...because of short term overall market drop, wipe out even the stops below the macro sine wave.
Whoaah...a little too far ahead for my feelings.
But it is how my brain tells em the story.
Just waiting for opportunity to come.
P!
NZDCAD MML Entry at old battlegroundAs discussed last week, I am once again looking at NZDCAD with a short perspective.
The pink ML has yet to be hit, as the value area from around April 17 held price off for now. Price extended quickly up and found resistance where sellers took control previously. At this point in time it also coincides nicely with the pink UMLH and price action gave us a mini median line entry signal.
Can reasonably expect price to bounce off this area and test the recent break from the coil down below. Will certainly be looking to move to break even beyond dashed blue line.
EU Short for the gap fillAs taught in the Andrews course we can anticipate a new pivot forming at the blue median line. Already showing signs of rejection with the sellers winning the battle at the high.
If price can break the support line then I plan on taking a short if price retraces to test the break.
Current high also looks nice on a channel in the daily view.
DAX "GER30" SHORTLongterm Short after opening gap for DAX "Ger30" same scenario with CAC "CAC40"
Remember to follow French Presidential Elections
Events at North Korea
etc..
Take Profit at Previous Swing LOWs appx 9400s
SL- With relatively safe trades .... who needs SL when at worst scenario you can hedge :p
Short Bobs Visit on NZDCADBig battle took place at the top of this swing up. Break out bar (bob) shows that buyers are no longer accepting higher prices and can expect price to at least retrace to the median line.
If price gets high enough to visit BOB can go short based on evidence of nobody accepting higher prices above.
Can expect a bounce of the value area on the way up as shorts get closed from above.
XBIT - Holy GAP...this looks like perfect opportunity!Price got kicked down at the centerline.
Then the world falls apart for XBIT...
...at least it looks like.
To me this is a GAP could be engineered from the Market Maker.
Think: If you would know "something" in advance and had the money to invest in a startup, what would you expect from the board to do for you?
Hmmm...
OK, I really dunno, but this could be a potential scenario for such scary GAP's...
And we really just don't need the facts - We are happy with pure Fork Trading and price reading.
Let's see if we can go above the centerline again to buy for a longer ride to the moon.
P!
AUDUSD - AU has a hard timeAU reached the confluence point of both forks and a heavy resistance from prior highs.
If price breaks above the white U-MLH, I would be willing to buy a retest.
But, because the blue L-MLH was expected to be retested as of the rules of the framework, I can imagine price to bounce back first, bevor breaking to the upside for a longterm move.
Observe...
P!
CL - Crude landed - bullseye!This was the former post. Read it and learn how this did unfold.
And now I will wait for a retetst of the centerline.
In my brain there is the Weekly chart...it's L-MLH is breached! This means, that price will test/retest it on the weekly bevor falling off the cliff if it really does. If this is the case, then the gas station has to pay us...
Here's the weekly:
Trade small and often, not bold and seldom, to enhance your chances to win!
P!
Short DASHDASH price has become MASSIVELY over-inflated into a giant bubble which has now burst.
Yesterday Bitfinex added BCC and BCU tokens to allow traders to speculate on the future price of BTC and BTU respectively (these tokens will then be fully-convertible post-fork).
Currently BCC (BTC) is surging ahead. This will lead to downward pressure on DASH which has been boosted in price partly as a speculation on BTC price crash.
It now looks likely that a hard fork will result in BTC maintaining a healthy price and market dominance and thus the bullish exuberance in Alts is near to run its course.