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SNAP using Forks the wrong wayIn this chart you see a Fork that seems to work great. The touches at the lower medianline parallel are perfect...but it's a self-deception if you use the Forks this way! Don't try to fit the market into your tools, never never! And why?...because you get faked information, leading to wrong decisions, leading to bad trades and to bad losses. What you need are the REAL facts. The real information that your tool is meant to provide you. Let me show you a real way how to approach this chart with the philosophy of Action/Reraction, the method behind the Forks in my latest TradingView Blog (see link below this post). Happy new week and as always...learn to earn §8-) P!
NYSE:SNAPEducation
by Tr8dingN3rd
CL - Crude reached it's balance - what now?As we see, price reached the Centerline, which is Rule Nr. 1 on ForkTrading: "Price reach the Centerline over 80% of time". OK, but what now? Energies move from balance to extremes. This means, that price will either drop to the L-MLH, or trade through the Centerline and towards the U-MLH. Since we don't know what will go on from here, how about to take both sides? Wait...trading Long AND Short? Jep! Follow me on my trading blog (see footer) and see how I'l will plan this. P!
NYMEX:CL1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
Action & Reaction At WorkThis is how Action/Reaction roughly works: 1) take the center of a major swing 2) mesure back and 3) project it forward. Observe how price is acting/reaction at the R-Lines. This is the same principle like: "If you push to a wall, the wall is pushing back." On my new Blog-Post for registered FreeFTG members, I'm going into details about this technique that stem from Newtons 3rd law of motion, and adapted to the charts by Dr. W. Babson, who made a fortune and started the Babson Collage. It pays out to know more then just common trading knowledge... P!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
CL - Crude overviewHere you see 4 different timeframes: Quarterly (Upper Right) - price reached a natural resistance level, where a break is expected Monthly (UL) - the quarterly natural resistance level, mirrored on the monthly has confluence with the Centerline. Price reached the Centerline a couple times now. If we can't crack the Centerline, then price will fall back, at least to a quarterly natural support level. Weekly (LL) The weekly Fork gives more insight. Here we see that there is more room to the Centerline. But as we know, markets breathe in and out. So a pullback to the weekly levels would be no surprise. From there, a further attack towards the Centerline would be expected, because this slope of the Fork is different then the Weekly! Daily (LR) Crude cracked the last days high and is falling below it, as of the time I write this analysis. Potential levels are the weekly and the L-MLH too. Depending on your trading timeframe, you know have a lot to go through and many potential levels to trade off. Consider the footer of this analysis to learn more. P!
NYMEX:CL1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
ETHBTCSo far, price was not able to close above the U-MLH. Instead it ran into the natural prior support, which acts now as resistance. With a second close into the Fork, after price went outside, we would have a very big chance that we see price much lower, somewhere at the Centerline. Bevor the Centerline, there's a natural support. It's a weekly level where price could first take a bounce, bevor reaching our target, the Centerline. Such a unfolding (of a bounce) would fit perfectly into the natural movement of price fluctuation. Always remember - Markets breathe in and out. So this bounce would be just natural. Trade small, but often! P!
Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
ES - S&P Update shows correct assumption, but with time-delayThe dashed arrow comes from the prior post. As we can see, we cannot expect the market do immediately what we wish. But at least we have a clue, how good our assumption, tools & systems are. Now, we are at multiple resistance points, with ES below the centerline. Most of the time this is a no brainer, and my shorts are already in and working. Since I also expect the VIX to rise more (...as a natural function of faster declining markets), I have Vega-Hedged my positions and my options portfolio is now pretty neutral. Looking forward for the decline in the following days... P!
CME_MINI:ESM2017Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
CL - Crude landed - bullseye!This was the former post. Read it and learn how this did unfold. And now I will wait for a retetst of the centerline. In my brain there is the Weekly chart...it's L-MLH is breached! This means, that price will test/retest it on the weekly bevor falling off the cliff if it really does. If this is the case, then the gas station has to pay us... Here's the weekly: Trade small and often, not bold and seldom, to enhance your chances to win! P!
NYMEX:CLK2017Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
11
CL - Crude Oil probably prepping for a diveThe real last high was on 2015/08/31 - with a very low close, basically a give-up. From 2016/01/08 price started to stair-step in big swings. The prior high, from where buyers gave up, was the exact point where they once again ran out of power, failing to break north and go higher. OPEC brought news in the last days - they would even lower prices much more to support Crude prices... My thinking goes like this: It's not a organisation who makes the market - It's the market, humans who tell what they are willing to pay. And if the crowd is not willing to pay more for crude, then nobody in the world can stop price from going lower and lower. It's just my simple thinking and in the years I walk on our bowl, the rules of live worked out very well. If not, it was me who did not follow it... Back to the chart. The past weeks produced a coil - energy is loading up. IMO it will explode to the south - but who knows - maybe something will happen and then people are willing to pay more and my thoughts are history. Yes, no crystal bowl, just putting together the puzzles and hope the picture is what it's showing. As for now, I see price will reach the centerline - either the white or even the blue one. But first there shall be a break of the support (blue line). Then I hope for price to come back to pick me up for the ride. But this is probably wishful thinking here, because of the loading on energy which could expand very explosive. Hunt mode on... P!
NYMEX:CLJ2017Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
IUX Russel - Rejection from the TrendBarrierWhat is important on this chart is not the trade! It is how you can see support and resistance at the lines. If you know how to use these tools your chance of profit increase dramatically, because all these lines do is follow the law of Action/Reaction - Newtons law. It's not a holy grale or such. But when something is happening over 80% of time, then we should pay attention to it and think about how we can use this for our trading. And yes, price is going to the centerline (CL.) over 80% of time. This is only one rule of many, of the A/R freamweork. I like to trade small, very small, but trade many occurences to increase my chance of making a profit at the end. That is why i like to sell options very much! Selling options have a built in success of expiring out of the money over 70%! Now combine this with this fantastic Action/Reaction framework and you have a hell of a great system to make money from the markets. I have put togheter a very basic Action/Reaction and Fork course where you can attend for free. Use this for your advantage and take you seat and start to dive in the world of Newtons law of Action/Reaction on this website: mytradingcoach.teachable.com P!
IShort
by Tr8dingN3rd