USD /CAD) bearish reversal analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD pair on the 2-hour timeframe, suggesting that the price is likely to drop toward the support zone. Here's the detailed idea behind the analysis:
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Chart Breakdown (2H – USD/CAD)
1. Resistance Zone (Yellow Box - Top):
Marked as a strong supply area where price has repeatedly been rejected (highlighted by red arrows).
Acts as a key zone where sellers are in control.
Also aligns with a descending trendline, reinforcing bearish pressure.
2. Support Zone (Yellow Box - Bottom):
This is the target point marked at 1.35387, which previously served as a demand zone.
The chart suggests this level as the next significant area where price might find buyers.
3. Trend Context:
Price is moving within a descending channel (black trendlines), confirming the overall downtrend.
The 200 EMA (1.36834) is acting as dynamic resistance, keeping price under pressure.
4. Projected Move (Blue Box):
Shows a potential drop of ~91 pips toward the support level.
A bearish wave is anticipated as per the black zigzag line on the chart.
5. RSI Indicator:
RSI is near neutral (49.02 and 49.70) — suggesting no overbought/oversold conditions, but confirming lack of bullish momentum.
RSI is aligned with price trending down.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Near current price or minor pullback (1.364–1.365)
Target: 1.35387 (support zone)
Invalidation: Break and close above resistance level / 200 EMA (~1.3685)
Trend: Downtrend within channel
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XAU/USD) support level back bullish trend Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 3-hour timeframe, suggesting a long trade idea with a clearly defined support zone and target projection. Here's the detailed breakdown:
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Chart Breakdown (3H - XAU/USD)
1. Support Zone (Yellow Box):
Price reacted strongly to the 3,244–3,300 area, which is identified as a key support level.
This area has historically seen demand and is now acting as a base for potential bullish continuation.
2. Falling Wedge Breakout:
A falling wedge pattern has been broken to the upside, which is typically a bullish reversal signal.
The breakout indicates a shift from the previous bearish momentum into bullish strength.
3. EMA 200 Confirmation:
Price is now above the 200 EMA (3,333.347), supporting a bullish bias.
This can act as dynamic support going forward.
4. RSI Momentum:
RSI at 62.00, indicating growing bullish momentum without being overbought.
The RSI has also broken above a previous local high, confirming strength.
5. Target Projection:
The projected move (blue arrowed box) suggests a potential rally of +105.305 points (3.20%), targeting the 3,394.503 level.
This level aligns with previous price structure and acts as the next major resistance.
6. Anticipated Price Path (Black Zigzag Line):
Price is expected to pull back slightly, retesting the wedge breakout or support zone.
After this retest, a bullish continuation toward the target point is projected.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Pattern: Falling wedge breakout + support retest
Entry Zone: Around 3,300–3,320 on a retest
Target: 3,394.503
Invalidation: Strong break and close below 3,244.166
Confirmation: Bullish price action near support + sustained RSI strength
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USD/JPY) Back support level Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY pair using a combination of price action, resistance/support levels, and indicators. Here's a breakdown of the idea behind the analysis:
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Chart Breakdown (2H - USD/JPY)
1. Key Zones:
Resistance Level (Yellow Box at Top):
Price has previously been rejected from this zone multiple times.
Recent bearish wicks and aggressive sell-offs are marked by red arrows—showing strong seller interest.
Support Level / Target Point (Bottom Yellow Box):
Price has found strong buying interest around 142.142.
This zone is the anticipated downside target if the bearish scenario plays out.
2. Bearish Bias Justification:
Liquidity Grab / Fakeout (labeled “fug”):
The price briefly broke above the smaller resistance block but quickly reversed.
This "fake breakout" often traps buyers, strengthening the bearish case.
EMA 200 (Blue Line):
Price is currently near or slightly under the 200 EMA (144.553), suggesting a potential rejection area aligning with resistance.
RSI Indicator:
RSI shows divergence and has not confirmed a bullish breakout.
The values (56.77 and 42.82) indicate loss of bullish momentum.
3. Projection (Black Lines):
The black zig-zag lines represent a forecasted drop to the support level.
Suggests a short setup near 144.50–145.00 with targets near 142.14.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Near resistance area (144.50–145.00)
Target: 142.142 (support zone)
Invalidation: Strong break above 145.00 and hold
Confirmation: Rejection from resistance with bearish candle pattern
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GBP/JPY) back bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe, signaling a potential rally from a key support area. Here’s a breakdown of this analysis:
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Technical Breakdown
1. Key Support Zone (Yellow Box):
Price has pulled back to a strong support level around 196.50–197.00.
This level previously acted as resistance and now flipped to support (classic support-resistance flip), marked by the green arrow.
2. EMA 200 as Dynamic Support:
The 200 EMA (~196.567) is just below the support zone, reinforcing the likelihood of a bullish bounce from this area.
3. Bullish Price Projection:
The chart suggests a bounce off this support zone with a projected move toward the target point at 200.132, indicating a +1.71% upside.
4. RSI Indicator (14):
RSI is at 43.47, approaching the oversold region but curving upward — supporting a potential reversal to the upside.
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Forecasted Move
Expected Move: Bullish reversal from support, targeting 200.132.
The chart outlines a potential entry at current levels, with a bounce confirmed by price respecting the yellow support zone.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea Summary
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: Around 196.50–197.00
Stop-Loss: Below support zone (~196.00 or lower)
Take-Profit: 200.132
Confirmation: Bullish candlestick pattern or RSI crossover
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XAU/USD) bearish reversal analysis Read The captionTechnical analysis of (XAU/USD) based on price action and technical indicators on the 15-minute timeframe. Here's a
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Key Technical Insights:
1. Resistance Level (Highlighted Yellow Zone):
Price is approaching a strong resistance zone (previous rejection marked by red arrows).
This area has historically pushed price downward.
2. Trendline Support (Rising Black Line):
Price has been following a short-term ascending trendline, forming higher lows.
A break below this trendline signals potential bearish reversal.
3. EMA 200 (Blue Line):
Price is currently above the EMA 200, indicating short-term bullish momentum.
However, price is testing resistance — a rejection could flip momentum bearish.
4. Bearish Rejection & Projection:
The chart shows an anticipated rejection from resistance, followed by a break of trendline support.
Target zone is marked near 3,228.098, indicating a drop of ~94 points from the current level.
5. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is nearing overbought territory (68.79).
A bearish divergence or RSI crossing down may confirm weakening momentum.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion / Trading Idea:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Near the resistance level (~3,322)
Confirmation: Break of trendline support
Target: 3,228
Stop-Loss: Above resistance zone (just over the upper trendline)
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XAU/USD) bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of (XAU/USD) on a short-term timeframe, incorporating several key tools and concepts:
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Overview of the Analysis
Price Level (Current): Around $3,273.40
EMA 200 (Blue Line): Around $3,337.95 (signaling broader trend)
Resistance Zone (Yellow Box): Between approximately $3,300–$3,320
Support/Target Zone: Around $3,231.11
RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 32.88, which is near oversold territory (below 30)
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Interpretation of Chart Structure
1. Descending Channel:
Price is moving within a downward-sloping channel.
Suggests a bearish trend is in play.
2. Resistance Level (Yellow Box):
Price is expected to retest this area and face resistance.
Confluence of a supply zone and upper trendline, reinforcing its strength.
3. Projected Price Action:
Price may climb back up into the resistance zone.
A rejection is anticipated, leading to another leg down.
The target is around $3,231.11, which matches previous measured moves.
4. Measured Moves (Blue Arrows):
Highlights historical price drops of ~79 points.
Repeating this pattern suggests symmetry and continuation.
5. RSI Indicator:
Currently at 32.88: nearing oversold, but not quite.
No clear bullish divergence, so price could drop further.
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Trade Idea Summary
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Near $3,300–$3,320 (resistance)
Target: Around $3,231.11
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above $3,337–$3,340 (EMA 200 and channel breakout)
Mr SMC Trading point
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Caution/Considerations
Watch for false breakouts above the resistance zone.
Monitor RSI for potential bullish divergence that could invalidate the downside.
Be cautious around the U.S. economic news event icon, which might cause volatility.
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XAU/USD) Bullish trand Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a breakout from consolidation supported by key levels and trend structure. Here’s the detailed analysis:
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Technical Breakdown
1. Key Support Zone
Price has formed a strong base around 3,315–3,325, with multiple bullish rejections (green arrows).
This zone has acted as a demand level, reinforcing bullish structure.
2. Ascending Trendline Support
An uptrend line supports higher lows, showing momentum building to the upside.
3. EMA 200
Price is now challenging the 200 EMA (3,353.41) — a key dynamic resistance.
A successful breakout and retest above this EMA will likely fuel continued bullish movement.
4. Breakout & Measured Move Projections
The chart indicates a bullish breakout from a consolidation box (yellow zone).
Measured move targets based on the previous rally:
First target: 3,368.86 (1.17%)
Second target: 3,381.55 (1.75%)
5. RSI Confirmation
RSI (14) is around 57, showing bullish momentum but still below overbought—supporting further upside potential.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion / Idea Summary
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: On pullback into 3,330–3,340 range or breakout retest above EMA 200
Targets:
3,368.86
3,381.55
Invalidation: Sustained close below 3,320 and break of the uptrend line
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USD/JPY) bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 3-hour timeframe, highlighting a breakdown from trendline resistance and projecting a move toward a significant downside target.
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Technical Breakdown
1. Trendline Rejection
Price sharply rejected from the descending resistance trendline near 148.00 (red arrow), forming a potential lower high.
This suggests continuation of the broader downtrend structure.
2. Break Below EMA 200
Price has broken below the 200 EMA (144.752), signaling a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
EMA is likely to act as dynamic resistance if price attempts a pullback.
3. Bearish Projection
The chart outlines a measured move downward toward the target point at 139.955, implying a drop of over 5.36% (approximately 770 pips).
The projected path shows lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish structure.
4. RSI Confirmation
RSI (14) is currently at 29.98, indicating oversold conditions, but this often supports strong momentum in trending markets—suggesting a possible continuation lower after minor retracements.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion / Idea Summary
Bias: Bearish
Entry: After trendline rejection and EMA 200 break (~144.75)
Target: 139.955
Invalidation: Break above 148.00 resistance trendline
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XAU/USD) Bullish reversal analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe, based on technical signals and price action behavior. Here's the breakdown
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Gold Bullish Reversal Setup – Targeting 3,384
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Key Technical Highlights:
1. Support Zone & Price Reaction:
Price has tested a strong horizontal support level (highlighted in yellow).
Multiple bullish rejection wicks indicate buying pressure at this zone.
The green arrows show successful support bounces, hinting at bullish intent.
2. Trendline Analysis:
Price bounced near the lower boundary of the falling wedge/downtrend channel.
An uptrend line convergence supports potential reversal.
A breakout above the short-term descending trendline is indicated.
3. EMA & Target Projection:
EMA 200 at 3,364.33 may act as dynamic resistance, the next short-term hurdle.
Target zone projected at 3,384.04, offering a potential move of +65.67 pts (~1.98%).
4. RSI Indicator:
RSI(14) is oversold (~29.93), signaling a potential reversal.
A bullish crossover may be forming, supporting upward momentum.
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Trading Plan:
Entry Zone: Near current support area around 3,325
Target: 3,384
Stop Loss (Suggested): Below 3,300, under support structure
Risk/Reward: Favorable based on support hold and breakout projection
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion:
This setup suggests a short-term bullish reversal from a key support area, with confirmation likely if price breaks above the descending trendline and clears the 200 EMA.
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ETHUSD 4H Chart | ETH Bearish SetupThis chart highlights a possible bearish breakdown scenario for Ethereum (ETHUSD) on the 4H timeframe.
🔍 Key Levels:
Breakdown Confirmation Level: $2,362
Target 1: $2,151
Target 2: $1,954
(Optional Target 3: $1,750 if added)
📉 After multiple failed attempts to break above resistance, ETH price is now testing a critical support zone. A confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger further downside towards the mentioned targets.
Ichimoku Cloud shows weakening bullish momentum, supporting the potential for a bearish move.
Use Proper Money Management
USD/JPY) Bearish reversal analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY 3-hour chart suggests a bearish reversal setup, based on smart money concepts (SMC), resistance rejection, and price action structure. Here's a full breakdown:
Technical Breakdown – USD/JPY
Big Resistance Zone (~145.800–146.300):
Price has tapped into a major resistance zone (yellow box) twice (highlighted with red arrows).
Both rejections indicate strong seller interest.
The latest candle structure shows clear rejection wick, signaling weakness at resistance.
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Bearish Bias Confirmation:
Bearish structure forming after the second rejection.
Break of the rising trendline could accelerate selling pressure.
A measured move projection (-2.58%) aligns the downside target with the support level at ~142.144.
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Support Zone (~141.800–142.400):
Marked as the likely target zone.
Historically acted as a strong bounce area (visible from late May to early June).
Completion of ABC bearish structure aligns here.
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Indicators & Tools:
200 EMA (144.419): Price currently slightly above it — watching for a close below to strengthen bearish view.
RSI (14): Shows signs of bearish divergence and cooling off from overbought (was above 70 previously).
Volume spike during the rejection suggests institutional selling.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Forecast Summary:
Bias: Bearish toward 142.144
Entry Idea: Look for confirmation of breakdown below trendline (~145.00)
Invalidation: Strong bullish close above 146.300 would break this idea.
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XAU/USD) Back Bullish trand Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 3-hour timeframe based on a price action setup within a rising channel and a key support zone. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
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Technical Overview:
Trend Structure:
The price is moving within a rising channel (marked by the black trendlines). Recent touches on both the top and bottom of the channel suggest that it is being respected.
Key Support Zone (Yellow Box):
Price recently tested a strong support zone around $3,338 – $3,350, which aligns with:
Historical price reaction area.
The 200 EMA (blue line).
An uptrend line support.
A bullish reaction (green arrow) confirming demand.
Bear Trap Breakout:
There’s a false breakout below the support followed by a sharp reversal (green arrow), which could indicate a bear trap, often followed by a bullish rally.
Price Projection:
The projected move suggests a bullish rally toward $3,478.89, offering a potential 3.97% gain (~133 points).
The path includes a possible consolidation before a breakout (illustrated by the wavy arrow).
RSI Indicator:
RSI is recovering from the oversold zone (~45), indicating increasing bullish momentum.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: Around $3,350–$3,370 (post-retest of support)
Target: $3,478.89
Confirmation: Bullish price action at support, 200 EMA bounce, RSI reversal
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XAU/USD) Back support level Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs U.S. Dollar) – 2H Timeframe:
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XAU/USD Bearish Rejection from Resistance – Short-Term Sell Setup
Key Observations:
1. Rejection from Upper Channel & Resistance Zone:
Price was rejected sharply after touching the upper boundary of the ascending channel and the newly established resistance zone (~3400–3420).
A strong bearish candle confirms selling pressure at the top.
2. Support Retest in Progress:
The price is currently descending toward the EMA 200 and the KYY support zone (approximately 3343–3348).
The previous bounce originated from this level, making it a significant retest zone.
3. EMA 200 as Confluence:
The 200 EMA (currently at 3346.92) aligns with the support zone, increasing the likelihood of a bounce or at least temporary pause in bearish momentum.
4. RSI Bearish Signal:
RSI has dropped below 50, confirming a momentum shift toward the downside.
Still above oversold territory, suggesting more downside room.
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Trade Idea:
Bias: Bearish (Short-Term)
Entry Zone: Around 3390–3400 (confirmed rejection area)
Target Zone: 3348 – 3343 (KYY support + EMA 200)
Stop Loss: Above 3425 (just above resistance zone)
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
Gold has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance zone within an ascending channel, and is now targeting the EMA 200 and previous structural support. Short opportunities could be considered toward the 3343–3348 zone, with RSI and price action supporting the move.
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USD/CAD)) Bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 3-hour timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and classic technical analysis. Here's a breakdown
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Key Technical Insights:
Overall Trend:
The pair is in a clear downtrend, confirmed by:
Lower highs and lower lows
Price trading below the 200 EMA (currently at 1.37402)
Respect for the downtrend channel
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Resistance Zones:
1. Upper Resistance Zone (~1.38400 – 1.38750):
Strong historical sell area (price sharply reversed here in late May)
2. Mid Resistance Zone (~1.36450 – 1.36750):
Price reacted twice here and dropped.
Aligns with the downtrend line and was recently tested again (red arrow).
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Bearish Projections:
After the latest pullback into the resistance zone, price is expected to:
Reject the zone
Continue following the descending structure
Target marked around 1.35034, which coincides with:
Previous low
Lower boundary of the descending channel
Mr SMC Trading point
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Chart Tools & Features Used:
Trendlines: Clearly marking the downtrend channel
200 EMA: Used as dynamic resistance
Fib-like measured move: Mirrored previous impulse moves (-1.61%) suggesting a symmetric drop
Arrows: Indicating reaction points from resistance
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Conclusion:
Bias: Bearish
Invalidation: Break and hold above 1.36500 would weaken the bearish outlook.
Next Move: Potential sell setups on lower timeframe retests or bearish confirmations within the resistance zone.
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EUR/USD) back to bearish Trand Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of EUR/USD pair on the 2-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the idea behind the analysis:
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Trading Idea Summary: EUR/USD Bearish Reversal Setup
1. Rejection at Resistance Zone
Resistance Level (~1.1600): Price has tested this level twice (red arrows) and faced strong rejection, suggesting it’s a firm supply zone.
This double top near resistance signals potential downside pressure.
2. Bearish Market Structure
Price action shows a break in short-term bullish momentum.
Bearish trend arrows and structure indicate expected continuation to the downside.
3. EMA Resistance
The 200 EMA (blue line) at 1.14356 is above the key support zone, acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
4. Target Levels
First Target: 1.13694 (Key Support Level)
Previous structure zone with strong historical price reaction.
Final Target: 1.12025 (Major Support Zone)
Larger demand area where buyers previously stepped in.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion
This analysis suggests a potential short setup with confirmations from:
Repeated resistance rejection
Bearish price structure and trend arrows
EMA as added confluence
Clear downside targets: 1.13694, then 1.12025
> Bearish bias remains valid unless price reclaims and closes above the resistance zone (~1.1600).
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Index/US) Bearish trend analysis Read The caption)SMC trading point update
Technical analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 30-minute timeframe, with the price respecting a clear downtrend and repeatedly rejecting a resistance zone near the 200 EMA.
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Analysis Breakdown
Key Technical Elements:
1. Downtrend Structure:
The price remains within a descending channel.
Multiple lower highs and lower lows signal sustained bearish pressure.
2. Resistance Zone:
Highlighted near 98.490–98.495, aligned with the EMA 200.
Multiple rejections from this level (indicated by red arrows), confirming strong supply.
3. EMA 200 (98.490):
Acts as dynamic resistance.
Price is below it, reinforcing the bearish bias.
4. Projected Move:
Bearish price path targets the 97.189 level (target point).
A measured move of approximately -1.30% is illustrated.
5. RSI (14):
RSI currently at 46.27, below the neutral 50 mark.
This confirms bearish momentum without being oversold, leaving room for further downside.
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Bearish Thesis:
Repeated failure to break above key resistance + downward channel + RSI weakness suggests a continuation to the downside.
Short-term consolidation expected before breakdown continuation.
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Trade Idea Concept:
Entry: Sell on a minor pullback near resistance (~98.300–98.490), or breakdown below the recent minor support.
Target: 97.189 zone.
Stop Loss: Above 98.500 or EMA 200 to invalidate the bearish setup.
Mr SMC Trading point
Risks to Watch:
A break and strong close above 98.500 would invalidate the bearish structure and could initiate a trend reversal.
Economic events (noted by calendar icons) may trigger volatility – ideal to monitor closely around those times.
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USD/JPY) Bearish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC trading point update
Technical analysis iUSD/JPY on the 30-minute timeframe, showing a rejection from resistance zones and a potential move toward lower support levels.
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Analysis Breakdown
Technical Components:
1. Resistance Zones:
Primary Resistance: Near 145.500 (upper yellow box), which has previously been rejected multiple times (red arrows).
FVG (Fair Value Gap) Resistance Level: Around 144.400, also acting as strong resistance, especially near the EMA 200.
2. Downtrend Line:
The price is moving below a downward trendline, respecting bearish structure.
Last rejection from both the trendline and FVG zone confirms selling pressure.
3. EMA 200 (144.075):
Price is hovering around this level, showing indecision.
Bearish bias remains unless price breaks and holds above it.
4. Target Zone:
A clearly marked support level around 142.543, shown as the bearish target.
Includes multiple event markers (potential news catalysts or key dates), suggesting added volatility.
5. RSI (14):
Currently near 55.23, with a prior rejection from higher RSI levels.
Bearish divergence not clear, but no overbought conditions.
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Bearish Idea Summary:
Thesis: Rejection from resistance zones + trendline + EMA suggests continuation to downside.
Expecting: Price to either:
Retest the upper resistance zone (around 145.000–145.500) and reject again, or
Break below current levels and continue lower toward 142.543.
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Trade Idea Concept:
Entry Option 1: Sell on confirmed rejection from FVG zone or upper resistance.
Entry Option 2: Sell on break and retest below 144.000.
Target: 142.543 (support zone).
Stop Loss: Above the resistance zone or trendline (e.g., >145.600).
Mr SMC Trading point
Risks to Watch:
Invalidation: Clean break and close above 145.500 would invalidate the bearish setup.
News Impact: Note the icons near the target zone – monitor economic releases around that time.
---
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XUA/USD) Bullish trand support level Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe, incorporating a support zone and trendline confluence strategy. Here's a breakdown
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Analysis Summary
Key Technical Elements:
1. Uptrend Channel:
Price is trading within a rising channel.
Higher highs and higher lows indicate bullish momentum.
2. Support Zones:
Key Support Level (near 3,400): A horizontal support zone has been marked where price previously bounced (confirmed by green arrows).
Trendline Support: This upward sloping trendline adds confluence to the horizontal support zone.
3. EMA 200 (3,377.96):
Acts as a dynamic support level.
Price is well above the EMA, supporting bullish sentiment.
4. Projected Price Move:
The chart anticipates a dip back to the support area (~3,400), followed by a bullish bounce.
Target is clearly defined at 3,504.01, with a measured move of about +103.36 points from the support.
5. RSI Indicator:
RSI is around 57, which is neutral to slightly bullish.
No overbought/oversold signal yet – supporting potential for more upside.
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Bullish Bias Reasoning:
Confluence Zone: Horizontal + trendline + EMA 200.
Healthy Price Structure: Higher lows being maintained.
Momentum Indicator (RSI) supports continuation.
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Risks / Considerations:
If price breaks below the confluence support (~3,400), bullish invalidation may occur.
Monitor for false breakouts or heavy selling pressure near resistance.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Plan
Buy Zone: Around 3,400 (support confluence).
SL: Below the trendline/EMA – e.g., 3,370 or lower.
TP: Around 3,504 (target zone marked).
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USD/JPY) bearish Technical Analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
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Trend & Price Action
The chart shows a descending trendline connecting recent lower highs, indicating a downtrend.
Current price: 143.548
Price has recently rejected off the trendline and started to fall, suggesting continued bearish momentum.
A red arrow marks the rejection point, emphasizing a key resistance area.
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Technical Indicators
EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average): At 144.459 — the price is currently below the EMA, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI (14) values: around 35.45, which is near the oversold threshold (30) but not quite there yet.
Indicates increasing bearish momentum but no reversal signal yet.
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Support Levels Identified
1. Support Level (Target 1): ~142.280
First target point for bears. Likely to see some reaction or consolidation here.
2. Big Support Level (Target 2): ~140.382
A stronger, more significant support zone and a deeper bearish target if the first support breaks.
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Bearish Target Scenario
The projected path (in black lines) suggests:
A further drop into the 142.280 zone.
If that breaks, a continuation toward the 140.382 level.
This suggests a swing trade setup favoring short positions if the price respects the current rejection zone.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion
Bias: Bearish
Resistance Confirmed: Rejection from descending trendline and below EMA200.
Bearish Targets:
Short-term: 142.280
Medium-term: 140.382
Risk Management: Watch RSI for potential bullish divergence near the second support zone, which could indicate reversal or consolidation.
---
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USD/CAD) Down Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD (U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar) currency pair on the 2-hour timeframe, and it suggests a potential sell setup based on price action, key levels, and momentum indicators.
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Chart Summary
Pair: USD/CAD
Timeframe: 2H
Current Price: 1.36432
EMA 200: 1.37436
Direction Bias: Bearish
Volume: 6.92K
Key Tool: EMA 200, RSI, Support/Resistance Zones
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Technical Breakdown
1. Resistance Zone / Supply Area (~1.3680 - 1.3700)
The yellow box highlights a strong resistance zone.
Marked by three red arrows, where price has repeatedly rejected.
Indicates clear seller dominance in this area.
2. Break of Support Level
Price broke below the yellow support area and is now trading below it.
This signals a bearish breakout from a consolidation zone.
3. EMA 200 Trend Confirmation
EMA 200 (blue line) is sloping down.
Price is below the EMA, confirming bearish trend bias.
Acts as dynamic resistance.
4. Bearish Flag/Channel Break
A bearish flag or wedge pattern seems to have been broken downward.
The measured move (blue vertical line) suggests the projected drop.
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Target Point
Target Price: 1.34951
This is based on the measured move from the resistance zone.
It aligns with the previous demand/support zone.
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RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI (14) is 36.37, approaching the oversold zone.
This shows strong bearish momentum, but it also means price may stall or bounce slightly before continuing downward.
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Trade Setup Idea
Entry: After confirmation of breakout below 1.3640
Stop Loss: Above 1.3700 (resistance zone)
Take Profit: 1.34951
Risk-to-Reward: ~1:2+
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Risk Management & Caution
If price moves back into the yellow zone or breaks above 1.3700, the setup is invalidated.
Watch for high-impact news events (marked on the chart with U.S. flags) that may trigger volatility.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion
This is a well-structured bearish idea based on:
Resistance rejections
Break of support
Downward EMA slope
Bearish RSI reading
It reflects strong downside potential toward 1.3495, offering a clean shorting opportunity for swing traders
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GBP/JPY) Bearish analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY (British Pound / Japanese Yen) based on multiple Technical signals on the 4-hour timeframe. Let's break it down in detail:
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Overall Analysis Summary
Direction Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: 4H
Price (at analysis time): 195.033
Tool Used: EMA 200, RSI, Support/Resistance, Chart Pattern
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Technical Components
1. Strong Resistance Zone (~195.800 - 196.200)
Marked by 3 red arrows.
Price has rejected this level multiple times, forming a Triple Top pattern.
Suggests strong selling pressure and low probability of price breaking higher in the short term.
2. Trendline Break (Structure Shift)
Ascending support trendline (marked with "$$$") is broken.
This is a key market structure break, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening or reversing.
3. EMA 200 (193.661)
Price is currently just above the 200 EMA.
A clean break and close below the EMA would confirm trend reversal.
EMA often acts as dynamic support/resistance.
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Target Zones
Two downside targets are indicated:
Target 1: 192.600
Minor support level, could be the first stop for bearish pressure.
Target 2: 190.733
Strong historical support zone (yellow box labeled big support level).
Also aligns with measured move from the top of the range to the base (height of the range).
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RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI (14): ~43.40
Neutral zone (not oversold yet), meaning there’s room for more downside before oversold conditions are hit.
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Trading Psychology & Risk Management
This setup assumes:
Sellers continue to defend the resistance zone.
Break of structure (trendline + EMA) confirms shift.
Traders may consider short entries below 194.800–195.000 with stops above 196.200.
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Trade Idea (Based on This Chart)
Entry: Below 194.800 (after break confirmation)
Stop-Loss: Above 196.200
Take-Profit 1: 192.600
Take-Profit 2: 190.733
Risk-Reward: Favorable (~1:2+)
Mr SMC Trading point
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Caution
If price reclaims 196.200 and closes above the resistance, bearish setup is invalidated.
Watch for fakeouts near EMA.
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XAU/USD) Breakout strong bullish trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis chart of gold (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of the key ideas presented in the chart:
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Key Support/Resistance Zone
A yellow rectangular zone marks a significant support/resistance level.
This level was previously a resistance and has now been flipped into support ("new support level").
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Trend Analysis
Uptrend line (lower diagonal line): Shows support and higher lows forming a bullish structure.
Downtrend lines (upper diagonals): Show past resistance levels being tested.
Strong downtrend line has now been broken, which is bullish.
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Target Points
Three bullish targets are marked:
1. $3,436.70
2. $3,500.93
3. $3,647.33
These targets seem to be based on:
Breakout above the resistance zone.
Measured move projections from previous impulsive rallies.
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Technical Indicators
200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Currently at $3,261.87, acting as dynamic support.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current RSI is 54.80, indicating neutral momentum.
Previously touched overbought zone (~69), indicating strong recent bullish momentum.
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Arrows
Green arrows mark strong bullish bounce points.
Red arrow marks a rejection from the downtrend line (previous resistance).
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion (Idea Summary)
Price has broken out of consolidation and downtrend resistance.
If the price holds above the yellow support zone and 200 EMA, a bullish continuation is likely.
Targets: $3,436 → $3,501 → $3,647.
Confirmation of breakout and momentum depends on volume and RSI behavior in coming candles.
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USD/JPY) breakout bearish trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) pair on a 2-hour timeframe. Here's the idea behind the analysis:
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Overall Idea: Bearish Move Toward Support
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Key Levels
Resistance Zone (Yellow Box, Top): Marked with two red arrows — shows strong price rejection around 146.00–147.00 area.
Support Zone (Yellow Box, Bottom): Around 139.85, marked as a target point and support level.
These two zones form the range in which price has been reacting.
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Current Price Action
Price is currently trading at 142.649, well below the 200 EMA (at 144.190), which is a bearish signal.
It has broken below the mid-range and seems to be heading toward the lower support zone (139.85).
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Trend & Structure
The price is following a downward trend after rejecting from the resistance zone.
The channel suggests a further leg down is likely to complete a measured move.
A temporary retest of the broken trendline might occur before continuation down.
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RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently around 31.83, nearing oversold territory, indicating the potential for:
A short-term bounce before further downside, or
A reversal near the key support zone.
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Projection
The projection arrow (blue) suggests a bullish rebound from the 139.85 support zone.
This aligns with a potential buy opportunity once support is confirmed.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion (Trade Idea Summary)
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Medium-Term Setup: Look for a buy opportunity around 139.85, if price reacts well.
Key Steps:
1. Watch for price to reach 139.85.
2. Look for bullish reversal patterns or confirmations at that level (e.g., bullish engulfing, RSI divergence).
3. If confirmed, a potential long trade could target back toward the 144–145 zone.
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