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Fractal

Beautiful fractals of Bitcoin ends before ChristmasWhen we start counting the strong and memorable upward waves of Bitcoin from August's lowest price, where we saw a nice support reaction at $49,000, we witness one of the most beautiful phenomena in the financial markets on the chart. It's a stunning nested fractal that showcases a powerful five-wave upward movement, with the third wave standing out, and it itself has formed another self-similar five-wave fractal, for 4 times in a row! I can't emphasize enough how beautiful this part of the market is. The power of the upward waves, the neat and appealing corrections, the Fibonacci levels that comply with Elliott's rules, and the stunning reactions to significant static and dynamic levels—all of this creates an incredible visual. I can share this section of the Bitcoin chart many times in my classes to help enthusiasts understand the nested nature of market waves and gain greater mastery and appreciation for the beauty of the financial market. I've even tried to create a minimal drawing of this phenomenon on the chart with my limited drawing skills. Now, we see that all these fractals have closed at the price of $108,000, and there isn't an upward fractal that had started before touching the low at $49,000. The downward momentum from the $108,000 price indicates that we've completed a strong bullish period and are entering a new phase. The end of an upward movement doesn’t necessarily mean the beginning of a downturn, so I’m not setting any outlandish bearish targets. I always track the market step by step. This could be the start of a significant drop, or perhaps the price will range for a while. The recent movement, which has lasted about 135 days, suggests that this correction period won't end soon, and I don’t expect the historical peak to be broken until March 2025 at the earliest. Based on fundamental analysis of the markets in the upcoming year, I believe we can agree that Bitcoin's upward movement may continue into next year. However, given the economic data and the Federal Reserve's cautious decisions to strengthen the dollar, we shouldn't expect this rise to happen rapidly. Bitcoin's fluctuations in the $90,000, $80,000, and maybe even $70,000 range can be good news for those who are still dollar-cost averaging. By the way, I wish all market participants the best in the new year. Merry Christmas 🎄 and Happy new year! ✨✨✨✨
by leqaeian
BTC : All Time High IN - OR Multimonth Playout?Bitcoin has begun a steep drop, and it's likely that the ATH is priced in. This fits my previous idea that the ATH would either be just over or just under 100k. There is, ofcourse, another option as well - a continuation over the next few months. This is likely if the price of BTC follows a fractal of the previous cycle. It would become likely if we see a strong bounce around the 81-82K zone, pushing us up into the 90's. But, at the moment, I'm leaning towards the idea that the ATH is in. It would also makes sense for the ATH to be in, from an Elliot Wave Theory perspective, since we've made a perfect 5 waves. If this is indeed the case, we can look forward to a few more rallies in the altmarket. _______________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Short
by CryptoCheck-
1
NASDAQ-100 NEEDS MORE CLARITY TO MOVE INDEX FORWARD!Last week, the NASDAQ-100 established key levels for both sellers and buyers. As we head into the next trading week, price rejection at either of these levels will likely determine the index's direction. While the weekly outlook remains bullish, a bearish close this week could lead to further deterioration of the index. N.B! - NAS100USD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #nas100usd #nasdaq
OANDA:NAS100USD
by BullBearMkt
LISTA LOOKS BULLISH (12H)LISTA has created a large BASE, and by making higher L's, it seems to be aiming to break this BASE upwards. If it stabilizes around the Flip range, it could move towards the targets. The green box is a good area to add volume to the position. The target could be as large as the lower BASE box. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this view. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
Bitcoin: Interconnectedness of Defining CyclesJust a followup analysis on scalable structure from "Natural Patterns & Fractal Geometry" ed idea. Additional Regularities: 2018 Downtrend Phase Fib Resonation: Fibonacci ratios are not just mathematical abstractions; they manifest in Bitcoin's market structure due to human behavior and market psychology. 2020 Uptrend Phase Fib Resonation: Unconventional use of Fibonacci ratios highlights areas where price has shown significant reactions. These levels act as dynamic support and resistance zones, underscoring the fractal and cyclical nature of Bitcoin's price movements. 2021 - Late 2022 Crash Metrics More detailed breakdown of emerging randomness: The repetitive alignment of market cycles with Fibonacci levels underscores Bitcoin's tendency to oscillate between predictable extremes, offering insights for timing entries and exits. Distinct cycles are clearly visible, separated by major tops (e.g., ATH in 2013, 2017, and 2021) and bottoms (e.g., the 84.12%, 72.26%, and 77.57% corrections). Each cycle adheres to Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, demonstrating a self-similar structure . Price expansions align with Fibonacci extensions (e.g., 1.618 and beyond), showing that Bitcoin’s growth phases are not random but rather guided by harmonic principles. The ascending channels mapped through Fibonacci ratios capture both the bullish and corrective phases, showcasing the market's bounded yet fractal rhythm . The percentage swings (+2484.44%, +12804.20%, +1692.21%, +600.07%) highlight the explosive nature of Bitcoin during expansion phases, followed by steep corrections. These as well align with Fibonacci proportions, providing a blueprint for market rhythm.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
18
TESLA: Fractal Metrics Fractal Cyclicality Cycle I The chart displays fractal cyclicality leading up to a major breakout. It emphasizes the progression of swing percentages and cyclic patterns, potentially identifying the foundational structure for a larger trend. The use of layered channels adds depth to the analysis, showing both minor and major fractal levels. Cycle II The upward and downward swings in this cycle demonstrate increased volatility and amplitude compared to the initial cycle. This suggests a stronger market reaction and more pronounced trends within the fractal structure. The price action aligns closely with the channel boundaries, indicating the preservation of the fractal framework while showcasing expansion within the structure. The swings are visually more aggressive, with higher peaks and deeper corrections, highlighting the market's larger movements leading up to the breakout. The cyclical patterns and overlapping fractal waves are more intricate, suggesting a maturing market phase with more participants and liquidity. Cycle III All three cycles exhibit a fractal nature with nested waves, maintaining consistency in cyclic progression through identifiable peaks and troughs. The price movement continues to respect the broader channel boundaries, reinforcing the fractal geometry's framework. Similar to the first two cycles, the third cycle shows distinct swings with well-defined percentage movements, suggesting a rhythmic market behavior. Like the earlier cycles, the third cycle builds on the previous fractal structure, with larger amplitudes and deeper corrections, indicating scaling behavior. Phi remain prominent and rooted across all cycles, suggesting persistent harmonic proportions. Evolutionary Growth in the Third Cycle The swings in the third cycle appear to be significantly larger than those in the first two, reflecting an increase in market volatility and participation. The third cycle seems to be emerging over a more extended period, indicating maturation in the fractal evolution. The deeper corrections, such as the -75.44% retracement, highlight stronger mean reversion tendencies before significant expansions.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract