Fractal
Bitcoin would go sideway until the end of this yearThis is a fractal I found that shows similar price action to the current 6-month consolidation of Bitcoin. Note that the chart below is at a 3-day interval for each candle, representing the bear market price action in 2014-2015. This fractal suggests that the current correction has found a bottom at 50k and will likely move sideways from now until the end of 2024. The good news is that 2025 could be a great year for Bitcoin. Time to DCA in!
XAUUSD Outlook 💹 Commodities:
👁️ Outlook
Context time frame (5hr): Price has been breaking bullish
Context time frame (5hr): Price re-accumulated and has showed strength to the upside heading towards 2531.765
Validation time frame (30m): Price is currently re-accumulating
I am expecting a deeper re-accumulation for news then looking for longs inside the 5m
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
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US30 Outlook💹 Indices:
👁️ Outlook:
US30 has been breaking down into the 200ema
Context time frame (5hr): I would like to see price show strength above the 10ema and 50ema before looking for longs.
Validation Time Frame (30m): Price is below the 10/50/200 and is breaking into new lows.
Neutral on US30 until it shows strength in the same direction both on 5hr and 30m time frame.
6-Sep-24Inflation is getting scary and that fear might fuel a bull run in Bitcoin. If a big bull is on the horizon, look for a bear trap soon (and vice versa).
I'm expecting a retest of the recent reversal demand zone, I think it will hold strong or maybe briefly break to a lower low.
Longer term view:
XAUUSD Outlook💹 XAUUSD:
📈 Bullish Outlook:
XAUUSD has been breaking into new highs on our 5hr
Context time frame (5hr): Price has been surfing above the 10ema and is showing strength.
Context time frame (5hr): Price has brokedown into the 10ema and has showed a valid pullback.
Context time frame (5hr): I want price to break above the EMAs to show some strength for longs.
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
5-Sep-24I was caught out by the volume gap yesterday, but I think this is a bull trap and we will rapidly reverse downwards.
I then expect a drop to reach the demand zone at about 51K. I think this will result in a bullish reversal, which would likely form around the key level at 55K.
Longer term view:
AUDCAD Outlook💹 Forex:
📉 Bearish Outlook:
AUDCAD has been breaking into new lows on our 5hr, 30m and 5m time frame.
Context time frame (5hr): Price has been surfing below the 10ema and is showing strength.
Context time frame (5hr): Price has brokeup and made a valid pullback into the 10ema and has showed a valid pullback.
Validation time frame (30m): Price is showing strength and surfing below the 10/50/200 EMAs.
Validation time frame (1D): Price has brokeup into the 10ema/50ema and has showed a valid pullback.
Entry time frame (5m): Price has brokedown below the 10ema/50ema and has showed strength.
Entry time frame (5m): I am interested in price if we can re-distribute by coming back to the 10/50ema and then get our entry setup.
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
SHIB USDT - FRACTAL Shows Bullish Impulse NextMany altcoins are currently in Accumulation Phase and/or approaching great buy zones. This is the part of the cycle where there seems to be very little action, and the price moves in a range and sideways.
It's safe to say that we can expect sideways/range trading until BTC moves the market. In a previous update, I mentioned how it is crucial to watch not only BTC, but BTC.D and the TOTAL3 market for the next move:
The good news, is that this makes for an excellent time to BUY back into any market. The lowest risk option here would require some patience though, because the accumulation cycle often lasts month. Luckily - we are already a month in of mostly range trading.
Here's a look at another altcoin that's possible worth buying - RNDR, which is now approaching a great zone to buy-back :
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BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
DOGS LEVELSFrom a technical analyst's perspective, the chart for DOGE/USDT shows a clear downward trend moving within a descending channel 📉. Let’s break down the key elements:
1. Descending Channel: The price is moving within a well-defined descending channel, indicated by the black and red lines. This suggests continuous selling pressure and lower highs and lows. 📉
2. Support and Resistance Zones:
- Green Zones: These represent resistance levels, where the price may face selling pressure and could potentially drop. 💥
- Red Zones: These indicate support levels, where buyers might step in, and the price could bounce upwards. 🛡️
3. Current Price: The current price, around 0.0010409, appears to have recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, indicating a short-term upward move. 📈
4. Extended Channel: This note suggests that the descending channel may continue to influence price action, with the possibility of further downward movement unless a breakout occurs. If the price breaks out either upward or downward, it could signal a trend reversal. 🔄
📊 In summary, the chart reflects a strong bearish trend, but there is potential for short-term corrections as the price interacts with the support or resistance zones. Traders typically watch for channel breakouts to confirm a continuation or reversal.
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Unlocking Profits: 57.47% Probability of AUDJPY Hitting TPAUDJPY Bullish Outlook:
Riding the Wave of Economic Shifts
The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen (AUDJPY) pair is showing promising signs for bullish momentum. Several key fundamentals are aligning to support this outlook:
Global Economic Recovery
As the world continues to rebound from recent economic challenges, risk-on sentiment is growing. This typically favors the Australian Dollar, known for its correlation with global growth and commodity prices.
Interest Rate Differentials
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been maintaining a more hawkish stance compared to the Bank of Japan (BOJ). This interest rate differential makes the AUD more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
Commodity Demand
Australia's resource-driven economy is benefiting from increased global demand for commodities, particularly from China's economic resurgence.
To capitalize on this bullish bias, I'll be employing a probability-based approach to enter long positions. By carefully analyzing market structures and key levels, I've identified entry points that offer favorable risk-reward ratios.
My analysis suggests a 57.47% probability of reaching the take-profit level on 1H timeframe.
As always, stay tuned for updates as I monitor this AUDJPY trade idea and adjust my strategy based on evolving market conditions.
12M:
2W:
1H:
The Bullish Case for Cardano: A Strategy to Maximize Your GainsMarket Recovery
The overall crypto market is bouncing back, with ADA recently seeing a nice price increase of over 4%. This shows that investors are gaining confidence.
Key Price Levels
ADA is approaching the important $0.70 mark, and many traders are watching for it to break through to $1. This could signal further gains.
Exciting Developments
Cardano has made some exciting upgrades, like the Hydra scaling solution, which makes the network faster and more efficient. This could attract more users and boost its value.
Trading Strategy
As always I plan to use a probability-based approach to enter long positions. This means I’ll look for the best entry points while managing risk effectively based on X1X2 strategy and its indicators.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
12M:
3D:
10H:
S&P 500: New ATH? 59% Chance!Economic Resilience: The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with robust job growth and consumer spending supporting overall market performance.
Technological Advancements: Ongoing innovations in AI and other tech sectors are driving productivity gains and creating new growth opportunities for many S&P 500 companies.
Corporate Earnings: Many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong business performance and potential for further market gains.
Global Recovery: As international markets stabilize, U.S. multinationals within the S&P 500 are benefiting from increased global demand and improved supply chains.
Monetary Policy: While the Federal Reserve remains vigilant, there are indications that the interest rate hiking cycle may be nearing its end, potentially providing a more favorable environment for equities.
Using the X1X2 strategy, I'll be looking for optimal entry points for long positions.
Let's dive into the comprehensive top-down analysis together.
12M:
2W:
3H:
Please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions!
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Jun 2014The most unwanted outcome for Bitcoin's price action in the next few weeks would be similar to what happened in June 2014. The price managed to get back above the 200-day SMA twice, but eventually fell below it again, starting a bear market in 2014. I’ll be closely monitoring the 200-day SMA line in the coming weeks. Bitcoin should not close below it again!
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Dec 2019The current 6-month consolidation of Bitcoin's chart looks similar to the one in December 2019. The price closed above the 200-day SMA twice, then fell back below it. Bitcoin should not close below the 200-day SMA again in the next few weeks to invalidate this fractal. If it does, then I will be very bearish.
4-Sep-24Yesterday's forecast has been accurate so far, but recent price action has been more drawn out than expected, so I'm now looking for a bullish relief bounce to the local supply zone before dropping lower.
See related ideas for more detailed TA
dashed lines = stop losses
dotted lines = entries/exits
blue line = fib retracement (placed at dashed line)
yellow lines = fib channel