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Fractal

Potential long setup EURUSDTook almost two months for us to take April high well done for those who caught the move. This analysis will probably take a lot less time to play out. Friday closed with an inside bar which means you would have to go onto lower timeframes to see which direction makes more sense to go. I have not been given any reason fundamentally or technically to be bearish on the pair just yet so I will be targeting the high. The daily FVG is a key area to look at and if it fails and we start making bearish FVGs that could be a sign that we will start getting a weekly or even a monthly pullback. That's all I can say for now stay safe and flow with the markets.
Long
by Keyserfx
1
EURUSD, GBPUSD - Outlook for next weekEURUSD - So we have 2x 4 hour POI's (Points Of Interest). Will be looking at potential reversals at both POI's however, within the first POI we have an area of potential liquidity that could look to be taken before we make out move back to the upside. Therefor, the second POI could look to be our more solid option for our buying options at some point next week. GBPUSD - This pair looks to be building its liquidity now for potential trades to the upside as today on the lower TF's it was setting quite a few traps for the potential longs and the traders that would have been shorting the breaks below structure to the left. If you have any questions for me please do let me know
by BenFxLDN
VIX Call Spread – Hedging Against Black Swan Risk (Aug ’25)📌 VIX Vertical Call Spread – Aug 19, 2025 (18/25) Executed on June 13, 2025 Volatility has compressed near multi-month lows, but the chart shows two major spikes above 45 in less than a year — triggered by macro shocks (Fed surprises, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, geopolitical escalations like Israel–Iran). I’m positioning with a long call spread on the VIX (Buy 18C / Sell 25C, exp. Aug 19), structured to hedge against a black swan while maintaining capital discipline. • Risk/Reward: 2:1 • Probability of Profit (POP): ~58% • Breakeven: ~21 • Defined risk / Defined reward • No directional delta risk I’m not forecasting volatility — I’m accepting that extreme events can (and do) happen. This spread pays off only if volatility spikes again above 21–22 in the next 60 days, which aligns with historical context. 🔒 No need to predict the trigger. Just manage exposure and define your risk upfront. 📈 Follow for more volatility and options setups based on structure + context. Let’s stay ahead, not reactive.
TVC:VIXLong
by fredcast80
2
ADBE: Fractal Pattern Repeating Again?ADBE has printed a surprisingly consistent technical pattern since 2023: A rejection from supply, followed by a gap-down, then a gradual but deep decline. We may now be witnessing the early stage of a fourth repeat. 📘 Historical Pattern Zone 1: ~$575 • Gap: –5.71% • Drop after gap: –12.11% • Duration: 49 days Zone 2: ~$551 • Gap: –8.85% • Drop after gap: –18.55% • Duration: 32 days Zone 3: ~$458 • Gap: –6.71% • Drop after gap: –18.21% • Duration: 25 days Zone 4: ~$425 (current) • Gap: –2.53% • Post-gap = in progress 🧠 All three prior moves began with a gap, followed by a small bounce, and then a larger sell-off. Each of them dropped between –12% and –18% from the post-gap high. 🔍 Current Structure • Price just rejected from ~$425 (1D supply) • New gap-down of –2.53% has just occurred • Currently sitting on critical DCS support zone: $382–$388 This is a high-stakes inflection area. A close below this support could trigger the next leg lower. ⚙️ Options Setup (Bearish Thesis) 💡 Trade Idea: Bear Put Spread (400 / 350, Jul 18 expiry) • Defined risk with a 2.2:1 reward/risk ratio • Breakeven ≈ $384 • Thesis becomes actionable if price breaks below the $382 DCS support • Invalidation: strong reclaim of ~$425 supply This setup targets a continuation of Adobe’s repeating structure. It limits downside exposure while offering meaningful reward if breakdown confirms. 🙌 Found this helpful? If this idea gave you value — a like 👍 or comment 💬 goes a long way! Follow me for more structured trade setups based on price action + context. Let’s grow with clarity, not noise. 📊💡
NASDAQ:ADBEShort
by fredcast80
Ethereum's Road to $7500 – Strategic Entries & Profit Optimizati🔵 Entry Zone: My first position is placed at $2225.5, aligning with a strong support level, while a secondary entry at $1857.5 serves as an additional safeguard against unexpected market swings—lowering my average purchase price and protecting capital. 💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: For low-risk traders, securing a 40% profit from the first entry is a prudent move to lock in gains early. However, my long-term target remains ambitious. 🚀 Main Target: Based on valuation models and fundamental news, Ethereum’s upside potential points toward $7500. However, I personally plan to secure 90% of my holdings at $6000, ensuring strong profit realization while leaving room for further upside. This setup balances risk management, smart positioning, and strategic profit optimization. Let’s see how ETH’s trajectory unfolds! Entry1: 2225.5 Entry 2: 1857.5 If your second entry is successful, you are required to withdraw 50 to 70 percent of your capital to maintain your capital. I will definitely update this setup.
Long
by Masoism
Bitcoin: Temporal ST FibsSo we have consecutive 2 rejections after registering Lower High on bigger scale.. Research Notes Hypothetically, if it's about to fall based on similar flow of market reactions forming on top then this would be the closest fractal for bearish scenario. Should be perceived as squeezed version of historic pattern. Not to scale on price axis solely, as increase in volatility can accelerate replication rate at places. The value is in temporal aspect like frequency of reversals. To be sure I'd add a curve that describes current growth on smaller scale, and which could later on indicate a turning point. Crossing under would confirm a scenario of bearish continuation. Experiment If we connect highs and map it to the local bottom, would the dimensions of original wave carry any structural significance? Original Fib Channels (price oriented) Temporal Fibs Sharing common coordinate to define them. Yet to evaluate this approach for structural buildup. Fibs Channel lines are extended upwards in order to capture the reactions at any scenario.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
5
EURUSD - Mark up for the rest of the weekAfter the CPI data was released today we had a lovely upside move. The move has caused us to trade into the previous weak higher timeframe high which I am hoping we can break and close above before the day is out. I am now focusing on what kind of pullback we may get into out POI's. Because there is no buy side liquidity on the first POI I will need to see a structural shift on the 15min TF to confirm that internal structure swing to move back towards the upside. If the 1st POI fails to hold I will be more aggressive with my secondary POI as that will be the premium discount price in order for us to move higher. If that POI fails and we break the 4H structure swing then this could signal we are about to move lower. If I can be of any assistance to anyone don't be shy to give me a message
by BenFxLDN
XAU/USD 11 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025. In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome. As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS. Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ). Intraday Expectation: Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765. Alternative scenario: Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK