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Fractal

Signal gold📉 Signal 1: Entering a Short Trade 🔹 Entry Conditions: If the price fails to break 2,806 - 2,813 and shows bullish weakness, a short trade can be considered. Entry around 2,789 is suitable. 🔹 Stop Loss: Above 2,800 🔹 Take Profit: First target: 2,777 Second target: 2,764 Third target: 2,764 (if the downtrend continues) 🔹 Risk Management: If the price stabilizes above 2,813, reassess the trade. If 2,777 support is broken, the downtrend will strengthen. 📈 Signal 2: Entering a Long Trade 🔹 Entry Conditions: If the price holds the 2,777 - 2,789 support and reversal candles appear, a long trade can be considered. Entry around 2,818 is suitable. 🔹 Stop Loss: Below 2,806 🔹 Take Profit: First target: 2,850 🔹 Risk Management: If 2,764 is broken, reassess the long trade. If the 2,813 resistance is broken, the uptrend will strengthen. ✅ Overall Conclusion: If the price reaches 2,806 - 2,813 and shows weakness, a short (sell) trade is preferable. If the price reaches 2,777 - 2,789 and shows bullish reversal signs, a long (buy) trade is logical. Entry confirmation should be based on price action and candlestick patt
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ehsancrypto72
EURUSD Potential Shorts (Technical Analysis)Overall Context: The dollar's been flexing its muscles lately, and EURUSD is feeling the pressure. We saw some crazy gaps when the markets opened on Monday morning – a sign of shaky liquidity, which usually snaps back. But with the trade war rumbling on, who knows? As traders, we've got to stay prepared, expecting a correction but ready with our contingency plans if it doesn't happen. Let's dive in - Technical Outlook: Failure of the previous accumulation cycle - Classic Wyckoff stuff, cycles run their course. A re-distribution is likely on the horizon, especially if the lower timeframes agree with the bigger picture. (Fractally, we need to see the LTF accumulation fail and for distribution to align with the HTF sentiment and cycle). Price has broken to the downside and has created multiple lower highs. Trading below the 200 EMA and has recently tested and bounced of the 50 EMA (at a correlating level of supply) Keep in mind that USDJPY and EURUSD are inversely correlated and are currently in line - While the inverse correlation is a significant factor, it's not the only thing that influences these currency pairs. Interest rates, economic data, and global events can also play a role and we know how that story looks at present so this is just additional confluence for us. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Scenario 1 (High Probability) - Price will pull back into the supply and drop from there. Scenario 2 (Medium Probability) - Price will continue to plummet and break structure to the downside. Trading Considerations: If price fills the gap and reaches supply levels above, you should wait for bearish confirmations to get involved. If price drops past the previous low, identify new levels of supply and trade accordingly. (I'll try to post an update if this happens). Final Notes: Strong technical picture but this week has a lot of upcoming economic events (NFP, anyone?). With the Tariffs imposed so close to the NFP release one can only assume there will be a power play by the Trump administration which we may not see coming. All we can do for now is follow the money flow to stay in the know! Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
4
EUR/USD 4H Analysis: Smart Money Concept SetupOn the 4H timeframe, EUR/USD transitioned from a downtrend to bullish momentum after breaking the previous LH. This indicates a potential trend reversal. Price swept liquidity at the IDM level, confirming the inducement move. I’ll now move to the 30M timeframe to refine my entry. My focus is on waiting for a CHoCH (Change of Character) and a bullish order block retest before executing a buy position. Sticking to one pair this week to maintain a focused approach. Let’s see how this plays out! Feedback is welcome—drop your thoughts below! Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
Probabilistic RealmI remember taking the CMT exam, where one question referenced the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which asserts that price action is purely random. To avoid losing points, I had to select “random” as the correct answer, despite knowing that market behavior is far more structured than EMH suggests. Despite of passing I still won't ever agree that market is random. Prices are neither random nor deterministic. Market fluctuations follow a chaotic structure, but chaos is not the same as randomness. Chaos operates within underlying patterns and scaling, whereas randomness lacks any order or predictability. Although chaos makes predictions difficult, keep in mind that the universe is not random— effects still follow causes in continuity . No matter how chaotic a system may seem, it always follows a trajectory toward a certain point. For example, in Lorenz’s model of chaos, the trajectory formed a pattern resembling the wings of a butterfly. Understanding these patterns of chaos has practical applications. In the market, even a slight fluctuation can trigger irreversible changes, reinforcing the idea that we cannot rely on absolute forecasts— only probabilities . The market is not necessarily a reflection of the economy; rather, it reflects participants’ feelings about the “economy.” The human emotional component drives the uncertainty and chaos, making it essential to visualize price dynamics exclusively through "systematic" lens. Market Structure Is Self-Referential Markets move in proportion to their own size, not in fixed amounts. Price is arbitrary, but percentage is universal – A $10 move on Bitcoin at $100 is not the same as a $10 move at $100,000. Percentage metrics reflects this natural scaling and allows comparability across assets and timeframes – A 50% swing in 2011 holds similar structural significance to a 50% swing in 2024, despite price differences. Using log scale is a must in unified fractal analysis. Percentage swings quantify the intensity of collective emotions—fear, panic, euphoria—within market cycles. Since markets are driven by crowd psychology, percentage changes act as a unit of measurement for emotional extremes rather than just price fluctuations. After all it's the % that make people worry.. The magnitude of percentage swings encodes emotional energy, shaping the complexity of future market behavior. This means that larger past emotional extremes leave deeper imprints on market structure, influencing the trajectories future trends. The inverse relationship between liquidity and psychology of masses partially explains the market’s fractured movements leading to reversals. In bullish trends, abundant liquidity fosters structured price behavior, allowing trends to develop smoothly. In contrast, during bearish conditions, fear-driven liquidity contraction disrupts market stability, resulting in erratic price swings. This dynamic highlights how shifting sentiment can amplify price distortions, causing reactions that are often disproportionate to fundamental changes. PROBABILISTIC REALM Rather than viewing fluctuations as a sequence of independent events, price action unfolds as a probabilistic wave shaped by market emotions. Each oscillation (outcome) is relative to historical complexity, revealing the deep interconnectedness of the entire chart that embodies the “2-Polar Gravity of Prices.” Fibonacci numbers found in the Mandelbrot set emphasizes a concept of order in chaos. The golden ratio (Phi) acts as a universal constant, imposing order on what appears to be a chaotic. This maintains fractal coherence across all scales, proving that price movements do not follow arbitrary patterns but instead move relative to historic rhythm. The reason why I occasionally have been referring to concepts from Quantum Mechanics because it best illustrates the wave of probability and probabilistic realm of chaos in general. Particularly the Schrodinger's wave equation that shows probability distributions. Key intersections in Fibonacci-based structures function as "quantum" nodes, areas of market confluence where probability densities increase. These intersections act as attractors or (and) repellers, influencing price movement based on liquidity and market sentiment. Similar to Probability Distribution in QM. Intersections of Fibonacci channels reveal the superposition of real psychological levels, where collective market perception aligns with structural price dynamics. These points act as probabilistic zones where traders’ decisions converge, influencing reversals, breakouts, or trend continuations. Don’t expect an immediate reversal at a Fibonacci level—expect probability of reversal to increase with each crossing. To prove that Efficient Market Hypothesis is wrong about prices being random, I'd go back to a very distant past from current times. For example, price fell 93% from 2011 ATH, reversed and established 2013 ATH. Using a tool "Fibonacci Channels" to interconnect those 3 coordinates reveals that markets move within its fractal-based timing derived from direction. If prices were random, this would have never happened. The bottomline is that viewing current price relative to history is crucial because markets operate within a structured, evolving framework where proportions of past movements shape future probabilities. Price action is not isolated—it emerges from a continuous interaction between historical trends as phases of cycles, and liquidity shifts. By analyzing price within its full historical context , we can differentiate between temporary fluctuations and meaningful structural shifts justified by the fractal hierarchy. This approach helps identify whether price is expanding, contracting, or aligning with larger fractal cycles. Without referencing historical complexity, there is a risk misinterpreting patterns from regular TA, overreacting to short-term noise, and overlooking the deeper probabilistic structure that governs price behavior.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
20
BTC | Developing Distribution Pattern | FractalsWe're looking at a disjointed channel dating back from 2019 capturing all the last two cycle tops and bottoms without having to use the log scale This distribution pattern caught my eye as it seemed very similar to the fractal top in 2021 and of course we can spot partial fractals of distribution all over the chart like the ones I circled in yellow As we trade in this top like area we have to remember BTC is a Risk-On asset and is sensitive to economic data Lets take a look at altcoins CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 at the bottom, we can notice that every time there was a developing continuation pattern, perhaps a bullish flag in this scenario, BTCs price slows down with CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D looking weaker within the 60 - 65% zone Seeing this I dont think we'll see a 70% dominance with alts looking to rise from the dead and to shoot for for the moon🌝 🎯My relevant post shows targets of $115k BTC from the falling wedge breakout also in confluence with a fib extension eyeing at the same level as the flag pole target, 100% We can also overshoot to around $120k One more thing when we line up TOTAL3s bullish patterns with BTCs price you'll notice BTC starts to underperform and while ALTs look to over perform We all know what happens after ALTs hit the moon and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD may be telling us something is coming soon. Stay tuned for more BTC updates and lets get through this together🚀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Nathanl19