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Federal Reserve Economic Data

Yield curve Before Hyperinflation (QE US BONDS) BTC & SPY The global bond market is what dictates the liquidity to stocks, its what dictates the world its what starts wars and its what ends wars. Currently I see many post focused on "recession" "market crash" when the giant elephant in the room is the global bond market and the US reserve dollar that is currently in danger. Why must we start foreign sanctions and battles with a country beginning with R? its very simple. There's a fight for the dollars survival. Covid 19 pushed the FRED past the point of no return and there is no going back to the structured system that was already falling apart. Treasury Interest is now getting at dangerous levels of unpayable amounts, Government Debt is rising by the trillions in a parabolic move that is getting steeper by the month. What has to happen? The FRED will force the US power to globally cut rates in all major economies while the FRED also has to start cutting back to zero while halting the fall of the DXY (forcing military action on other countries who do not cut rates and hinder their local currency) The last time in history something like this has happened was during the 1927-1931 period of discount rate blunders. US CPI is indicating we have entered a new stage of no turning back and this is the danger of printing money, QE will be forced in the nature of Yield Curve Control and the excess liquidity and currency will debase the markets violently in an upward notion, following this people will end up panicking being on the sidelines entering the market with heavy leverage and borrowed funds at lower rates. This is a type of scenario that would collapse Rome, Would end the Soviet Union. Expect dangerous policies, socialist developments, anti ownership, sparks of new wars. Only when you price this event in something like Bitcoin you can then re evaluate how much money will have to be printed to keep up this momentum without causing a depression with unemployment rates sky rocking and the Government defaulting on the debt.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510
Working Money vs Stock MarketM2 is the money in circulation issued by the government. (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is the real value of M2 deflated by the CPIAUCSL (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers). (fred.stlouisfed.org) (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is in an infinite uptrend, with a downward correction now. The correlation with SPX is positive as both are falling. A change in correlation, either up or down, could indicate a move in SPX. Scenarios: 1. M2REAL falling, SPX falling: positive correlation 2. M2REAL rising, SPX rising: positive correlation 3. M2REAL falling, SPX rising: negative correlation 4. M2REAL rising, SPX falling: negative correlation With money more scarce and expensive due to inflation, I believe more in scenario 1. After this inflationary crisis is over, maybe scenarios 2 and 4.
FRED:M2REALShort
by andre_007
Inflation Higher Tomorrow? They changed their Calculation!Yeah, you heard that right. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has an announcement on their site saying, " Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures. " They are changing their weighting. Does this raise inflation or lower it? Well, that depends. Based on the year-over-year percentage of change they are going back to 2019-2020 numbers which happen to be lower. That would suggest inflation may report lower and that will be the headline news report which is very unfair to everyone because it's a lie. If they adjust the weighting higher though it may even our or be higher. Used cars, oil, and energy are clearly much higher over the last year but they won't be using those numbers. What happens the following year when they do? Or, do they change the numbers again on us? Elections are coming so be watching for all kinds of bogus strategies for these politicians to take power over each other. Know, that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, NOT rising prices. Know that for the long run, they won't stop printing money until this blows up on someone's watch. Could that be in the next 10 years? I think it's highly likely.
FRED:CPIENGSLLong
by DefyingFinance
1
Bitcoin Breaks Resistance and Government Loses Their MindsBitcoin breaks above old support at $40,000 and is holding. This is showing that it may be ready to make another run for it. $53k is real resistance and we need to be watching that. If we break hard to the downside off $53k then we may have just triggered our next huge sell-off into that $30k range. The best thing would be $40k remains as support and I don't think it would be long before $53k is broken with our high $60k becoming the realistic resistance before we head to new highs. The government is losing their minds and are trying to sneak in some language to allow them to go after crypto exchanges. I would encourage others to go search for a recent article by Forbes talking about Gary Gensler from the SEC and a Trojan Horse such into some other regulation. This will allow them to also come after the Defi world. Not good news. Regulation is coming in one form or another but how heavy does it get? The government and the FED are not going to let this go lightly because it's about control over money supply and value. Is Bitcoin going to suffer the same consequences as gold did in 1933 when it became illegal in the US for citizens to hold? Anything is possible and I know most of you out there would be selling to avoid jail. No atheists in fox hols, bro. Let's see where this goes but make sure we stand up for what is best for all of us in this country. Freedom and competition in currency.
Long
by DefyingFinance
Hyperinflation coming by 2030 in the US. Can it be true? Who does it benefit? Check out the M2 money supply vs the S&P 500. Clearly, the more that is printed the more assets increase. Owning assets is your best bet of financial survival. The poor will be crushed but being wealthy in that time is not pretty either. This has been talked about for years by people like Robert Kiyosaki, Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney, and so many more. Milton Friedmans Free To Choose on YT has a great explanation about inflation I recommend everyone look at. This chart is monthly and if we are truly looking at a long-term time horizon, it looks clear this trend is not changing. Usually, these don't change until it implodes on a government. Be watching commodities over the next decade if you are a long-term player. I will be stacking those chips along with crypto in the Defi world and other dividend-paying stocks with cash flow real estate as a backup. This market we are heading into is going to test everyone's asset allocations to the extreme. #crash #inflation #depression #marketcollapse # hyperinflation
FRED:M2SLLong
by DefyingFinance
1
Fed Rate Increase, its relation to BTC price and rounded cyclesHello Traders, I just wanted to put some visuals together as I am seeing a lot of banks making statements regarding the FED rate increases affecting the price of Bitcoin and other crypto assets negatively. I am not saying that this will not end up being the case but, I wanted to show what happened the last time the FED decided to increase rates compared to what happened with Bitcoin price action. As you can see around Oct 31st (the first red vertical line) of 2015 the fed stated to gradually and from the chart dramatically increase rates per the FRED chart for FEDFUNDS which shows the Federal Funds Effective Rate* (Blue Line Graph). The price of bitcoin continues to raise just like it has in every other run that has commenced along the way after a halving event which are also depicted on the chart (yellow vertical lines). As you can see where the fed peaked rates and began the downdraw in April of 2019 which lead into the pandemic drop of 2020 the price of Bitcoin was dropping more so due to the typical bear markets that come after a bull run. Another point I wanted to make is that it seems that every run in the past has ran on a general curve or parabola which it seems as if the price has currently reached that point again in this run as of now. Is this the bottom? Are we going up from here? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Have a green week, Savvy * The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets. The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2) References (1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Federal funds." Fedpoints, August 2007. (2) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Monetary Policy". Suggested Citation: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate , retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; fred.stlouisfed.org January 30, 2022.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Savvythe1
1
Plan B - Well Plan A. Linear thinking.Let's start with inflation; I recently wrote an article on Inflation - here's a little extra info to follow on from that. This seems insane!!! And it is!!! Stimulus - hype, FOMO, institutional adoption and so on. What does this mean in terms of the charts? Well some good news and some bad news - first of all, many people have now hears about Stock - to - flow made popular by a guy called plan B. Truth is, this technique has been around for a while and has been used in other instruments such as GOLD for quite some time. S2F A stock-to-flow ratio means the currently available stock circulating in the market relative to the newly flowing stock being added to circulation each year. Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future. So although it's great "in theory" it relies on the parabolic growth - Pi top or whatever other linear logic you want to to continue. (yes insert here intentional). However, whilst stimulus checks are being printed like there is no tomorrow, as price rises for Bitcoin you have to shift focus and think of the market like a stock. When Apple or Microsoft, Google, Tesla where at a market cap of $100m to get to 200m was pretty simple. Each time it doubled, the longer it took to the next phase. Now for Amazon to double from over $1 Trillion market cap to $2 Trillion Dollars; some pretty extraordinary events need to occur. So whilst it is not impossible - you will sometimes need major corrections in the moves up, this is actually healthy for the market. Or like any model, too much of a good thing is actually detrimental to the whole thing. The Halving To understand why Bitcoin can work in the shorter term along this scale it has everything to do with the verifiable finite limit to its quantity it is important to understand the mechanism built into its code, this is known as the Halving. For every 210,000 blocks that are mined, or about every four years as we currently stand, the reward given to miners for processing Bitcoin transactions is reduced in half. This means that Bitcoin is a synthetic form of inflation because a reward of Bitcoin given to a miner adds new Bitcoin into circulation. Clever, hey. The rate of this inflation is cut in half every four years and this will continue until all 21 million Bitcoin is released to the market. Currently, there are 18.5 million Bitcoins in circulation, or about 88.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. With gold, there is a somewhat steady rate of new gold mined from the earth each year, which keeps its rate of inflation relatively consistent. Now for a S2F model, you can quantify a demand which is what the model is built upon. But with things like alts in the crypto sphere - the problem will become the flow of money. I talked about this in another recent article. With Bitcoin, each halving increases the assets stock-to-flow ratio. A stock-to-flow ratio means the currently available stock circulating in the market relative to the newly flowing stock being added to circulation each year. So if demand drops for any number of reasons; from bankers adding fees - limiting purchase power. governments around the world tightening up or restricting flow, through to taxation events or heightened regulation. (we CANNOT, ignore these factors). Since Bitcoin’s inception, its price has followed extremely close to its growing stock-to-flow ratio. Each halving Bitcoin has experienced a massive bull market that has absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But as Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market". Bitcoin’s price increase can also be attributed to its stock-to-flow ratio and deflation. Should Bitcoin continue on this trajectory as it has in the past, investors are looking at significant upside in both the near and long-term future. Theoretically, this price could rise to at least $100,000 sometime in 2021 based on the stock-to-flow model shown above. However, you have to watch for the pitfall of a large Elliott monthly move back down from 3-4 on a larger scale than the drop from the previous ATH. Some investment firms have made Bitcoin price predictions based on these fundamental analysis and scarcity models. In a leaked CitiFX Technicals analysis Tom Fitzpatrick, the managing director at US Citibank, called for a $318,000 Bitcoin sometime in 2021. Think back of the Amazon stock doubling model - I can't see us going from 61k current level to 318k within the next 50 days. Live on Bloomberg, the Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Global called for a $400,000 Bitcoin based on their “fundamental work.” Like I said, it's not going to be easy. Anyways - enjoy the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
SPX's saddest day 2021, FRED ST. Louis discontinued "Big Mama" This weekly series is discontinued and will no longer be updated. The non-seasonally adjusted version of this weekly series is WM2NS, and the seasonally adjusted monthly series is M2SL. Starting on February 23, 2021, the H.6 statistical release is now published at a monthly frequency and contains only monthly average data needed to construct the monetary aggregates. Weekly average, non-seasonally adjusted data will continue to be made available, while weekly average, seasonally adjusted data will no longer be provided. For further information about the changes to the H.6 Statistical Release, see the announcements provided by the source. Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. For more information on the H.6 release changes and the regulatory amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcements and Technical Q&As posted on December 17, 2020. Suggested Citation: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock (DISCONTINUED) , retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; fred.stlouisfed.org March 17, 2021.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
Historical GDP Print for The U.S. for Q2 2020 Print Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. Observation: Q2 2020: -32.9 (+ more) Updated: Jul 30, 2020 Units: Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Frequency: Quarterly
F
by TayFx
8
A Macroeconomic Perspective for Diverging MarketplacesPowell's admission that he's not even thinking about, thinking about, thinking about raising interest rates means there's no possible scenario under which the Fed would raise rates. No matter how low the dollar falls or high gold goes, the Fed will be late again. I suspect the mmimd or lower 80s the the DXY is on the way. This is based on clear-cut macroeconomic data that is currently devaluing the dollar naturally as it should in an economy that continues to inflate, whilst remaining capped in terms of nominal (real) GDP. The unemployment outlook is getting bleaker as new weekly jobless claims were not only above 1 million for the 19th consecutive week, but with yesterday's 1.434m print, they are now higher for the 2nd week in a row. The "recovery" has already ended, and the relapse has already begun. 20:15:02 ( UTC ) Fri Jul 31, 2020
F
by TayFx
3
Gold and Money Supply. Why Gold is a good long-term investment.Here we see the correlation of Gold (XAUUSD) and M1 (money supply composed of physical currency and coin, demand deposits etc). During the last two financial crises (DOTCOM and SUBPRIMES), the central bank raised the rates to support the stock market collapse and save the economy from recession. As you see when rates were raised and money supply spiked, Gold started rising as well as a counter to inflation. Similarly, Gold has spiked since March 2020 when the Fed announced the trillion dollar rescue package to counter the shattered demand from the COVID lockdown. In our opinion that makes Gold a necessity to any investor's portfolio on the long-term. ** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FRED:WM1NSLong
by InvestingScope
1