Gold's Chart Signals Temporary Downtrend but Uptrend Indicators As per the analysis of the provided chart, the outlook for Gold suggests potential downside towards the levels of 59260 , 59000 , and 58700 . Traders should pay attention to the level of 59600 , as a crossover and close above this level could signal a resumption of the uptrend. The presence of the 100-day moving average and a parallel channel on the chart further support the notion of an underlying uptrend, indicating that the current downtrend may be temporary.
In terms of key events for today, the following are of significance:
18:00 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr) and Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) - High impact
19:30 Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May) - Low impact
22:30 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count - Medium impact
Additional information and important event details for the upcoming week will be provided shortly.
Freecommoditytips
Silver Price Analysis: Exploring Resistance, CP, Volume, Events Upon analyzing the chart, it is evident that silver has been trading within a parallel channel for almost a year, indicating a well-defined price range. In the previous trading session, the price of silver reached the resistance line of this channel. For short-term traders, a critical resistance level to watch is 74060. If this level is not surpassed convincingly, it could lead to a potential downturn towards the control price (CP) line. It is worth noting that silver has yet to test the CP line and the 100-day moving average (MA) successfully.
Taking into consideration the parallel channel pattern, it suggests that silver prices may experience a decline towards levels around 73000 , 71800 , and 71360 .
Furthermore, volume plays a significant role in the current scenario. Short-term investors should be cautious and await a successful breakout of the channel for a potential upside move towards price levels of 74900 , 75560 , and even exceeding 76800 . Monitoring the volume and price action closely will provide further insights into the market direction and potential trading opportunities.
As a market participant, it is important to closely monitor the following market-moving events, as they have the potential to impact the prices of gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas:
Monday, Jun 12, 2023
23:30 Federal Budget Balance (May) and Note Auctions: These events have a medium impact and can provide insights into the economic health of the country, potentially influencing investor sentiment and market movements.
Tuesday, Jun 13, 2023
11:30 Employment & Unemployment, Avg Earning Index, Claimant Count Change: These medium-impact events provide crucial data on the labor market, which can have a significant effect on commodity prices.
18:00 CPI and Core CPI: These high-impact events reveal the inflation rate, which is closely watched by traders as it can impact the value of commodities.
Wednesday, Jun 14, 2023
02:00 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: This medium-impact event discloses the inventory levels of crude oil, which can influence crude oil prices.
18:00 PPI and Core PPI: These medium-impact events measure changes in producer prices and can affect commodity prices.
20:00 Crude Oil Inventories: This high-impact event reports the weekly changes in crude oil stocks, which can impact the price of crude oil.
23:30 Fed Interest Rate Decision & Projection, and FOMC Economic Projections & Statement: These high-impact events provide insights into the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve, which can have a broad impact on commodity markets.
Thursday, Jun 15, 2023
00:00 FOMC Press Conference: This medium-impact event involves a press conference following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, providing further context and potential market-moving statements.
18:00 Import Prices MoM & YoY: This low-impact event reports changes in import prices, which can indirectly affect commodity prices.
20:00 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change: This low-impact event reveals the weekly changes in natural gas inventories, potentially impacting natural gas prices.
Friday, Jun 16, 2023
01:30 Net Long-term TIC Flows: This low-impact event discloses the flows of international capital, which can have an indirect impact on commodity markets.
17:15 Fed Waller Speech: This low-impact event involves a speech by a Federal Reserve official, which may provide insights into monetary policy and influence market sentiment.
19:30 Michigan Consumer Sentiment: This medium-impact event measures consumer confidence, which can affect demand for commodities.
Monitoring these events will help traders and investors stay informed about potential catalysts that can impact the prices of gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
Silver's Price Outlook: Targets for Uptrend and Downtrend ScenarThe resistance level at 67160 is a critical level for silver's trend, as it will determine whether the current uptrend will continue or a downtrend may be expected. If the price manages to break and sustain above the resistance level, it suggests a continuation of the uptrend, with potential upside targets at 68360 , 68760 , and even as high as 69300+ .
However, it's important to note that these targets are not guaranteed and depend on the price's ability to overcome the resistance level. On the other hand, if the price fails to break above the resistance, we may expect a potential downtrend. In this scenario, downside targets may include 65600 and 65060 below the critical resistance level.
Don't Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With MCX GoldKey levels: 47948 - 49290
Gold is rejecting uptrend and downtrend at the level of 47948 . And we don't see a powerful movement in the 2021 year, wherein it throwout the level of 49280 successfully.
Here, you will have a strong support level, wherein we may decide about buying or selling. And it is the level of 47948 . Intraday traders can keep buying the gold for targets of 48360 - 48640 - 48890 - 49280 until it remains above the level of 47948 .
But, if you see a breakout of the first 'key' level, then sell it for the targets of 47480 - 47060 below.
Buyers must be aware these days. Why?
The gold prices may push down with power compared to an uptrend because of Coronavirus (Omicron).
For advance traders, watch significant releases or events that may affect the movement of gold, silver, crude oil & natural gas.
Tuesday, Dec 28, 2021
20:30 CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) - High
Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021
03:00 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - Medium
21:00 Crude Oil Inventories - High
Thursday, Dec 30, 2021
19:00 Initial Jobless Claims - High
21:00 Natural Gas Storage - Low
Part 2: What Drives Gold (XAUUSD) Prices?PREVIOUS:
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Weekly outlook of Gold Spot -
WHAT'S NEXT:
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Key levels: 1793.6 and 1783.6
According to my previous newsletter, my gold key levels will remain the same. It's not sellable until breakout the 1766 (strong support).
In XAUUSD, buying pressures are increasing. We may see 1812 - 1824 - 1836+ levels.
Alternatively, gold is taking a reversal from the first key level, so its upside rally may be weak. But, day traders can play between my range. And stop buying when it breaks the first key level. That could drag down the gold price directly at the second key level ( 1783.6 ).
And gold's closing price below 1783.6 means blast. It may hit the strong support level directly.
Please note, don't forget to watch significant releases or events mentioned above in the chart that may affect the movement of gold, silver, and crude oil.
FOMC Minutes: A confirmation for an explosive rally in XAUUSDGold has started collapsing nonstop after Nonfarm Payrolls data. And it stopped at my ' tested many times ' level. XAUUSD has recovered 50% almost in the previous week.
The gold spot needs to break the 1793.6 level to start an uptrend. Afterward, it will go for 1806 - 1826 levels. And these levels can push the gold price up to 1900 .
But if gold breaks the strong support again, it will start falling. This time, it won't stop! Hence, the short-term traders can start selling from there for the targets of 1744 - 1726 - 1684 .
For advance traders, watch significant releases or events that may affect the movement of gold, silver & crude oil. Especially, don't forget to watch this Wednesday's events to find out gold upcoming actions.
Tuesday, Aug 17, 2021
18:00 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) - High Impact
23:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks - High Impact
Wednesday, Aug 18, 2021
02:00 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - Medium Impact
20:00 Crude Oil Inventories - High Impact
23:30 FOMC Meeting Minutes - High Impact
Thursday, Aug 19, 2021
18:00 Initial Jobless Claims - High Impact
20:00 Natural Gas Storage - Low Impact
Friday, Aug 20, 2021
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count - Low Impact
MCX Gold Will Have An Explosive Rally This Wednesday:
MCX traders should keep their eyes on the 46720 levels. It's a trend changer.
As per XAUUSD, Indian MCX Gold can raise 47500 - 48260 after a breakout of $1793.6 . And if it breaks the strong support of Gold Spot, it will keep falling for targets of 46260 - 45860 .
Part 2: Silver will touch 69200 levels again?Key level: 62110
On 6 June 2021, I had drawn a chart of silver ( ). Wherein, I've shown the silver can collapse up to 0.618 . It has made a low of 62184 and touched 0.618 levels of retracement.
If MCX silver crossover and close below the level of 62110 , it will try to hit 60000 - 58900 - 57260 levels.
Otherwise, it will take a bounce back from here and come back to the 65800 - 69200 levels.
Please note, don’t forget to watch significant releases or events mentioned in the last update of crude oil that may affect the movement of gold, silver, and crude oil. URL:
Will MCX Crude oil Come Back to 5500?Crude oil has broken March 2020 support trendline today. That is indicating a direct sell signal. If crude crossover & closes above to 5160 levels, then it can come out from the downtrend. And we may see 5300 - 5500 again.
According to the current breakout, MCX crude oil may hit the following levels: 4800 - 4760 - 4660 - 4590
Gold will come back to the $1800 level?On 16 July, gold has crashed over 60$ during the FOMC event. At that time, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data was highlighting selling pressure.
GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 07/27/21
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) | OPEN INTEREST: 500,187
NON-COMMERCIAL & COMMERCIAL TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
LONG 452,107 | SHORT 481,533
Ref: CFTC Gov
And on 27 July, CFTC data was said OI (Open Interest) of a gold future contract is 500,187 and total shorts 481,533 & buys 452,107 . But, gold prices increased.
We have to notice that the bullish rally wasn't powerful compare to the 16 July data. And selling pressure has higher compare to buyers. Hence gold has moved bearish side in the last trading session.
If gold wants to move upside, then it has to crossover my strong resistance. That will lead the gold's prices above 1840 - 1860 - 1882 - 1900 .
But if you focus fundamentally & CFTC data, XAUUSD will keep falling and touch the following targets: 1793.6 - 1783.6 - 1763.6 . Gold is making double top formation also.
NAS100 BUY/SELL ENTRIES AND EXITS! How I trade -
Buy at support or WAIT once thee buy entry has been broke . If support breaks more than 15 pips than ride that SELL ENTRY to TPs (Take Profit) 1-3. Trail stop 15-20 pips behind each TP. Same thing at resistance, sell or WAIT and sell once thee SELL ENTRY has broke. but if broken by 15 pips then enter the buy and ride to TPS 1-3. Each TP is a different level of support and resistance so be wary of reverses during each bull and bear run! FOLLOW if you enjoyed!
MCX Crude oil: Ascending Triangle Pattern (TP 5112)Crude oil is forming Ascending Triangle Pattern. According to the monthly chart and chart pattern analysis, the crude oil rally will not stop here. It will keep moving forward for levels of 5160 - 5300 - 5600+ .
MCX crude oil target for intraday traders is 5112 level.
MCX Nickel Parabolic Curve Pattern & TipsThis is MCX Nickel weekly chart. Price projection is based on Parabolic Curve & Fib Retracement.
As mentioned in the chart, At the end-point of Base 3, indicated by the "X" symbol, the nickel could double in the shortest period of time. Targets: 1426 - 1632 - 1778 - 1854 - 1962 ( 2.618 - Based on Fib Retracement ).
If nickel breaks the curve line, it can collapse up to "X" or base 3 deep. Hence, we can see the following targets from the selling point: 1130 - 1050 - 960 - 850 and below .
Remember, trade with the direction of the breakout. And stop-loss above/below breakout level.
Silver Price 2021 RoadmapAccording to the date range on MCX Silver daily chart, it's changing the trend after every 46 bars.
If silver does not crossover 88.60% of fib retracement before completing 46 bars, we may expect a downtrend ahead. It can collapse up to 61000 to 55765 .
Here, targets for intraday traders: 67500 - 65600 - 63660 .
Or if it breaks the 88.60% , then silver will make a new high. And it will start raising & hit the following levels: 75000 - 77000 - 80000+ .
Crude oil is bearish near-term - Elliott wave analysisThe crude oil started the bullish Elliott wave on the 4-hour timeframe. A new low, followed by a three-wave recovery to roughly 3760 - 3660 - 3470 can be expected before the uptrend resumes.
If there will be the upside breakout of wave 5 ( Protective Stop: 3980 ), then it's a failure of the Elliott wave pattern. What happens if it breaks wave 5? I will update it in my next post.
MCX Gold Trading Strategy for Intraday TradersGold is taking reversal from the strong support (SS) level ( 48635 ). And at present, it's very close to the SS. Can we see a reversal again?
If gold remains above SS, then it can touch the following levels: 49000 - 49200 - 49400
But according to RSI, MA, & DMI, it seems in a downtrend. So, if MCX gold breaks the support level, we may see the following targets: 48460 - 48260 - 48000
Gold Price 2021 Roadmap - EWTThe Gold spot started the bearish Elliott wave on the daily timeframe. Right now, it's making the 5th wave. It has to cross 1824 - 1800 - 1776 to complete the fifth wave. The fifth wave will complete around 1690 .
If there will be the upside breakout of wave 4 , then it's a failure of the Elliott wave pattern. And the target for the uptrend will be as following 1980 - 2000 .
Will AUD/USD Breaks the Support?Currently, AUD/USD is moving upward. It started to rise from the 19th of March 2020 and still moving upside. Right now, It's moving a little downside, and then it will again start to rise. The trend will rise to the following targets 0.7621 - 0.7635 - 0.7641 - 0.7700 - 0.7800 .
But what if it breaks the support and fall?
If it starts to fall by breaking the support then the targets for the fall will be 0.7598 - 0.7592 - 0.7580 .
ABC Correction started for the EWT on AluminiumMCX Aluminium has started falling due to Elliott Wave's ABC correction. Expected A is at 100% or 161% retracement of wave 5.
Therefore, it can start rising from here to the level of 164.4 . The day traders can have the advantage of this impulsive ride of B .
According to ABC correction, we may see the Aluminium prices below 161.6 - 159.4 before the weekend.
Identifying the Crude Oil Price Next Big MoveAccording to this chart, MCX crude oil is trying to climb upward. It has started upside rally from the beginning of May.
Here, I have applied Volume, DMI, MA, and Fib Retracement to identify the next move. Moving average of 50 & 200 is throwing direct up signals by crossover. And here, ADX is less than 25 but +DI above the -DI. Hence, we have chances to see slow movements.
Smart investors can buy for 3260 - 3300 - 3360 - 3400 levels.
In the previous trading session, it has created a Doji. It’s a direct sign of a reversal or trend continuation. But if it breaks the support line, the crude oil will fall to 88.6% (2982) - 78.6% (2735) of Fib retracement levels.
MCX Gold Double Bottom – Potential ReversalIn the last two weeks, MCX gold has lost -2003 points. We may see a continued downtrend up to the support line (Range: 49600 - 49200 ). Intraday traders can play between freefall by taking it as a target.
As mentioned in the chart, the double bottom pattern will complete when the price fails to break past the two bottoms and heads back to the neckline.
Short-term targets: 50900 - 51860
Long-term targets: 53560 - 53400
But if gold fails to complete the double bottom pattern by breaking the support line, we may see continue downward movements. And the gold price will come at/below 48760 - 48000 levels.
If it happens, I will update you ASAP. Follow my account for immediate update notifications.
MCX Silver Trading Strategy for the Intraday TradersSilver is growing slowly. According to this chart, silver is trying to move upside from the strong support trendline. It's a potential reversal point based on a support trendline.
Currently, it has broken a strong support trendline. We have chances to see a tail , fakeout , or excess here. That can be up to a hurdle. And the hurdle breakout is a direct sign of a downtrend.
After all, 200 MA is recommending further advance here. So, we can pick the silver mega lot for the targets of 63000 - 63360 - 63660 - 64000+ .
Safe traders can wait for a 50 MA breakout before entering as well.
Elliott Wave Vision on MCX SilverSilver made a bullish Elliott wave. The fifth wave is including a diagonal. After the fifth wave, there is an ABC correction. Silver can move upside to 62840 - 63560 levels.
Expected C range: 60565 - 59200 - 57045
The correction will over at 63560 to change the current trend. And upside rally will resume for the levels of 65000 - 66000 - 68000+ .
Will MCX Crude Palm Oil touch the 900?Currently, MCX Crude Palm Oil (CPO) shows an uptrend. By following the ADX, we can say that the trend will rise because ADX is greater than 25 (ADX>25) , and +DI is above the -DI .
Let's have a look at the volume. Volume spikes double of the average, so this also shows an uptrend, and it will go to the 900 - 920 - 960+ .
Right now, the trend is crossing the parallel channel.
If it is excess, then Crude Palm Oil will start to fall to the following targets 836 - 810 . It can be said by following the parallel channel.