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Update on US Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices – December 2022A cold weather snap forecast across much of the United States is driving demand for natural gas as a heating fuel higher. Prices of front month Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures have risen over the past week as a result. The front of the curve has moved more than the rest of the curve. The curve is now close to where it was two weeks ago. Natural gas in storage is within seasonally normal range. Since June 2022, when Freeport LNG Terminal had to shut down after a fire, natural gas storage in the US has been ramped up as the gas produced in the US can no longer be exported at the same volume as prior to the shut-down. Freeport LNG accounts for close to 20% of US export capacity. Its re-opening has been delayed many times and the latest guidance from Freeport is a partial opening in mid-December 2022 and full production in March 2023 . However, in an email statement to Reuters they have pushed the reopening to end-of-year , and we remain sceptical that there will be any flow of LNG from the terminal this side of the of the New Year. Ample storage could drive US natural gas prices lower when the cold weather snap passes. Europe has been able to fill its natural gas storage capacity to close to 90% coming into the start of the winter period (October 2022) and is now drawing on that capacity at a slower than expected rate due to thrifting and an initially milder-than-expected weather pattern. However, colder weather has arrived, which could drive higher demand. Natural gas flows to Europe from Russia have slowed to a trickle and hence the region is reliant on Liquified Natural Gas from elsewhere. Unfortunately, with Freeport LNG offline, the US will not participate fully in meeting this demand over the coming weeks, but US Henry Hub may get a boost when Freeport LNG opens. The European Union is currently trying to implement a price cap on imports. There is no final deal to speak of, but the European Commission’s proposal, is for a market correction mechanism that would kick in when the price of month-ahead contracts on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility exceeded €275 ($290) per megawatt hour and the gap between world prices was greater than €58 . Any success in approving this price cap, could limit upside for US Henry Hub used as feedstock for LNG exports to Europe. However, with the price gap between US and European natural gas prices being so wide (almost 6 times ), we believe the upside could nevertheless very large. Source: 1 FREE PORTING NEW ROUTER 2 Reuters 3 Bloomberg 13/12/2022 4 WisdomTree calculation on 13/12/2022 using Dutch TTF Gas 1st Line Financial Futures (USD/MMBTU) as published by ICE Endex who convert megawatt hour to Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU) and USD using the WM/Refinitiv Closing EURUSD Spot Rates as published by Refinitiv at 4 pm UK time and Henry Hub Front month futures.
NYMEX:NG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Freeport McMoran Strong Future PositionFreeport-McMoRan's relatively strong position significant producing assets in the U.S. and Indonesia and expansion opportunities puts it in a somewhat stronger position. In short, the outlook for copper prices is good They are forecasting steady annual sales growth. 2023 is expected to be an even stronger year than 2022, and 2024 is expected to be weaker but still stronger than 2021. This provides a runway for significant sales improvement for the company and continuous income for the company in the upcoming years
NYSE:FCXLong
by TraderMentorX
4
Things ProfZero doesn't like - Increasing correlationsINVESTMENT CONTEXT On June 9, the ECB governing council announced its intention to raise interest rates by 25bps in July; a "larger increment", possibly sized at 50bps, is envisaged for September if inflation persists For the third time this year the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for 2022, this time to 2.9%, after January and April revisions to 4.1% and 3.2% respectively, and warned about coming years of above-average inflation and possibly stagflation The OECD slashed its global growth forecast to 3% - down from 4.5% it predicted only a few months ago U.S. inflation in May unexpectedly hit 40-year high at 8.6%, up from April's reading at 8.3% considerably adding pressures to the Fed Freeport LNG terminal in Texas, crucial for energy supplies to Europe, will be closed for at least three weeks following an explosion at its Texas Gulf Coast facility Mortgage demand is at the lowest level in 22 years in front of rising rates PROFZERO'S TAKE Equities cratered on June 9 and 10, as investors processed the combined news of the ECB announcing its path to increase interest rates and surprisingly surging inflation in the U.S. Albeit money-market traders already priced in the ECB 25bps hike scheduled for July, now they are factoring a 40% probability of a heftier 50bps raise for September - one that would bring interest rates into positive territory almost 2 quarters ahead of forecasts after 8 years of ultra-loose monetary policy. ProfZero largely anticipated that markets didn't fully bake-in the ECB's course on monetary policy; now that that pocket of volatility has been uncovered, ProfZero sees turmoil on equity markets as the positions that were constructed in an attempt to call the bottom are unwound; yet with more clarity on the Regulation's side, now investors can rely on a more detailed strategic frame ProfZero does not like swelling correlations. They signal generalized distress amongst traders, with algorithms amplifying the sentiment. Seeing the blockchain space fall along with the market at large while BTC comes at the closing point of a mid-term triangle indicates a possibly painful breakout may be in the making PROFONE'S TAKE After the bank cut again its world economic growth forecast for 2022, World Bank's President David Malpass said “The world economy is again in danger”. According to the OECD, the world economy will pay a "hefty price" for the war in Ukraine. The macroeconomic scenario is not homogeneous, and emerging market economies are expected to bear the brunt of the worsening conditions. Some signs of relief are appearing instead in developed countries, thanks to small price declines for semiconductors and fertilizers. ProfOne reminds that June is the peak period for energy supplies to be stocked ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere, while freight rates are expected to be kept high by persistent port congestion and intensifying deliveries for goods to be dispatched ahead of holiday season. Under such premises, Profs see but scant possibilities for near-term solution to the inflation equation, left alone the possibility of a "soft landing" for the economy deeper in 2022 PROFTHREE'S TAKE Mixed news coming from China - trade data showed exports bounced back in May, growing at 16.9% on a yearly basis, while also imports rose to 4.1% after both indicators had hit the floor in April amidst COVID-related restrictions. Yet, albeit trade figures beat expectations, investors somewhat shifted their attention to a new lockdown in one district of Shanghai, which capped the gains in Asian markets. ProfThree has set its eyes on the containment of COVID in Inner Mongolia, China’s key coal mining province, which now accounts for almost a half of total Omicron cases in the country. With coal supply and the related logistics under strain, prices might surge even higher, compounding to global energy supply and security concerns
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Freeport-McMoran Testing Long Term Resistance FCX, Freeport McMoran is testing a long term resistance trend-line. Copper has been unfavorable as of late due to the slowdown in Chinese growth. China is the largest buyer of Copper in the global market. However, recently, the dollar down move has been reflationary for commodities in general, with the CRB commodities index rallying. Moreover, Chinese PMI's have recently bounced, alongside Europe and other EM countries. This is all bullish for Copper. Given that it is the last major commodity to turn in this dollar-down short term macro picture, FCX is ripe to break this long term resistance and head to new highs.
NYSE:FCXLong
by MT-Macro
FCX On Verge Of Dropping 21%FCX is on the verge of dropping 21%. Investors need to take note of these this major factor that dictates price action. Notice on the stock chart below, how over the last two weeks Freeport-McMoRan has been unable to make new highs while the stock market has made multiple new all-time highs. In addition, the stock chart over those same two weeks has a clear bear flag pattern formation. This usually forms when small investors are buying but big institutional traders are gently selling into them, dumping shares. All in all, these are huge bearish signals on the Freeport-McMoRan and investors should be selling or shorting the stock heavily. The first target to the downside is $13.20, a net profit from the current price of 14% for shorts. The second target is $12.10, a net profit for shorts of 21%. This trade will likely play out in the next six weeks, if not sooner. View all of my trades VERIFIED right here: verifiedinvesting.com
NYSE:FCXShort
by AnnabelleTrader
The Force Behind Brazil's Recent Bullishness (Analysis on VALE)If you've been paying attention to headlines about Brazil recently, the term "impeachment" seems to be all over the place. But what's really driving prices upwards in the country's stock market? Is it the daily swaying impeachment probability or something else? Today's stock to be analysed is VALE, the Brazilian iron ore producer. The chart's left side is late October 2014, when president Dilma Rousseff got re-elected. As can be seen, Vale's stock price has since then maintained a close correlation with the price of the main product it sells. The analysis gets even more interesting when the stocks of other notable Iron Ore producers are plotted on the chart... Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton and US-Based Freeport McMoRan. So, what's really driving those prices more, Dilma or Iron Ore(rhymed!)? I'll stick with Iron Ore...
NYSE:VALE
by geraldelli