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French election shock: What will FX markets say? France is on the brink of a hung parliament, with the left-wing coalition capturing the most seats in a stunning upset over Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Obviously, the forex markets are closed on the weekend. So will be interesting to see the reaction to these shock election results in France on the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP when the market opens. Regardless of whether the market thinks this turn of events is good for France or the Eurozone as a whole, this might be trumped by its dislike of surprises. The left-wing alliance, projected to win between 180 and 215 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, outpaced President Macron’s liberal bloc, which is forecast to secure 150-180 seats. The far-right National Rally, led by Le Pen, and its allies are anticipated to hold 120-150 seats. Le Pen's National Rally led in the first round of voting last week and aimed to achieve a historic majority. However, strategic voting and alliances among left-wing parties have thwarted her efforts. Le Pen’s ties to Russia, including past opposition to EU sanctions, might have also harmed her campaign. Over the weekend, Le Pen had vowed to cancel permission for Kyiv to use French-supplied long-range weapons against targets in Russia.
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally The British pound surged above $1.276 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in three weeks, as voters across the United Kingdon headed to the polls for parliamentary elections. The Labour Party, currently leading in the polls, appears poised to unseat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party. Some projections suggest Labour could secure a majority, marking their first general election victory since 2005. But, perhaps the more interesting trade is in the euro in reaction to the second round of voting in France scheduled for over the weekend on 7 July. In a strategic move to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front (NFP) has announced it will withdraw its candidates in 200 districts where they finished third, lending support to stronger candidates opposing the National Rally (RN). Forecasts now indicate the RN and its allies are likely to win between 190 and 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. Prior to these withdrawals, polls had estimated the RN could secure between 250 and 300 seats. In the forex market, a bullish push could see the euro retesting the previous high around 1.0850, with a potential challenge to the 1.0900 psychological level switching the broader outlook to bullish. Conversely, a drop below the 200 SMA may find immediate support at 1.0775, with further support at the 50 and 100 SMA levels around 1.0733.
by BlackBull_Markets
Political Sway: Biden, Trump, Macron, and Mbappé Investors are bracing for a series of political events in the coming weeks, beginning with Thursday’s debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican Nominee Donald Trump, and extending to elections in France and the United Kingdom. Thursday's debate is expected to offer contrasts between Biden's and Trump's economic visions (in-between personal jabs). Trump has hinted at his debate strategy, focusing on inflation and criticizing Biden's economic record. "Under Biden, the economy is in ruins," Trump declared on Saturday. His economic proposals include imposing strict tariffs on imports, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and extending the tax cuts from his first term. Economists warn these measures could stoke inflation further if implemented. While Biden may avoid discussing the ballooning federal deficit, Trump is expected to bring it into the spotlight, despite the national debt increasing by 25% during his presidency. At the same time, EUR/USD traders need to stay alert as the French elections approach. The final week before the vote could bring significant shifts in market sentiment, driven by polling data. Current projections show the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies leading with 35.5% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is trailing in third place with 19.5%. Interestingly, football star Kylian Mbappé on Sunday urged the French public to vote against "extremes," a statement interpreted as an endorsement for Macron. Mbappé, currently the highest-paid footballer in the world, could influence younger voters and add an unpredictable element to the election's outcome.
by BlackBull_Markets
[ATO] French Stock for lotto playHere is a bleeding stock on the French market with very bad managment and fondamental side. The shares are going for dilution soon. So why I am speaking about it ? Because this stock is the one from a great French Company (or was) and we potentially can except it to rise up again if great change are made. "When there is blood in the streets" is time to buy but not without a proper strategy and here we start to see a potential long level of rejection. Great Trade !
EURONEXT:ATOLong
by ArnoSG
6
[TEP] TELEPERFORMANCE a French Monster ?TELEPERFORMANCE (TEP), a French stock renowned for its strong fundamental value, presents an enticing investment opportunity amidst recent market movements. The stock has witnessed a notable reversal at a significant daily level, affirming the scenario outlined in previous analyses and underscoring the importance of close monitoring. In the long scenario, a clear path forward emerges, with a critical level at €135.5 poised to validate our bullish outlook. A successful break above this level would signal further potential upside for TEP, with ambitious price targets set at €275.0 and €400.0. Ultimately, our objective is to hold for new All-Time Highs, reflecting our confidence in TEP's ability to deliver sustained value creation. Conversely, the short scenario presents a nuanced picture. While a trendline break has occurred, the lack of significant downside momentum raises caution. The €132.5 level serves as a potential pivot point, warranting careful observation to mitigate risks to our long-term strategy. In navigating both scenarios, maintaining a vigilant stance and adapting to evolving market dynamics are key. The confluence of fundamental strength and technical signals underscores the potential for strategic opportunities in TEP. While short-term fluctuations may present challenges, our strategic vision remains focused on capturing the long-term upside potential of this compelling investment opportunity.
EURONEXT:TEPLong
by ArnoSG
CAC40 to break above Falling Wedge?Falling Flag (Wedge) has formed on CAC40 since April 2023. We have had the price come down each time but make a higher low and fail to break below 7,056. It might be premature but, it looks like the momentum is pointing up (along with many other alternative indices). I'll be happy to go long when the price breaks above. But now it's a waiting game. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target 1 will be at 7,857 ABOUT THE INDEX Name: The CAC 40 is an abbreviation of "Cotation Assistée en Continu", which translates to "continuous assisted trading", and the number 40 refers to the number of companies represented in the index. Establishment: The CAC 40 was established on 31 December 1987, with a base value of 1,000 points. Representative of French Market: The CAC 40 is the benchmark stock market index in France, which reflects the performance of the 40 largest publicly traded companies listed on the Euronext Paris. Diverse Sectors: The index includes a diverse range of sectors, such as manufacturing, banking, pharmaceuticals, media, utilities, luxury goods, etc.
INDEX:CAC40Long
by Timonrosso
CAC40 Bearish (Downtrend)CAC40 has officially become bearish, I think that was pretty obvious two or three days ago. We've got a bearish divergence on the 1-day timeframe, not to mention the fact stoch and rsi is both topped out completely on 1 week and 1 month timeframe, I believe we could be seeing lows of 6300 points. Due to the FED moving towards tapering it's possible there could be a tantrum within the market causing major indicies to crash. 4-hour timeframe H&S completed 30-minute timeframe bearish divergence Descending Channel on countless timeframes (lower) We're seeing most timeframes oversold though which is quite worrying, however, they seem to be building up due to it just hovering around so we'll see how the market plays out.
FShort
by mithianme
BEWARE OF PULLBACK ON RESISTANCE - CAC40 - 30MNThanks for your likes and shares! Much appreciated! _____________________________________________ The market is in a recovery mood . The actual range can possibility be a good entry for a short direction profitable trade. The upper level can possibly see a nice entry for long direction trade, BUT, beware of pullback because it is a strong resistance line. If pullback happen it will be a even better entry for Short Direction Trade!
EURONEXT:CAC
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas