FSLR
Bearish Gap Fill Pending For First SolarFirst Solar has been in a clearly defined downward trend since between May and August of 2016. As of the close on May 12, this stock is at the top of the cycle which is near a strongly established resistance. The projected future movements are highlighted below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 81.4842. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is well overbought and due to retreat.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.9577. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3173 and the negative is at 0.6377. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the positive indicator had been moving up, but may be in the early stages of its downward reversal. Projected future movement has been drawn in the VI window.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 93.9795 and D value is 90.7662. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently in overbought territory. This indicator will drop, the question is will the stock drop with it or slowly begin to swing up and down?
The stock recently gapped up after earnings. Gaps are typically filled, but the time in which this is done varies. Even though a closing of the gap may happen, simple movement to the bottom of the gap is much more likely and it is a staggering 11% drop from the May 12th closing price.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside, although definitive downward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 10% over the next 30 trading days if not sooner.
More analysis at LimitLessLifeSkills!
Here We Go!!! Buying 5,000 Shares Of $FSLR: Huge Breakout ComingI am buying 5,000 shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR). The stock chart is one of the most beautiful bull flag patterns I have seen in some time and on the verge of the break out. The stock is trading just off 52 week lows which means it has significant upside potential. Overall, I view First Solar as a low risk, high reward swing trade.
I verify my trades on VerifiedInvesting.com
UI | Cashflow: 8.5% on SOLAREDGERETIREMENT ACCOUNT HOLDERS
If you have this stock $SEDG NASDAQ:SEDG
Stock screener protocol is good except the earnings date falls on 2nd August. Take care of it...
Chart is looking good. Buying low as it bounce on TREND LINE. And in next few days, possible cross over of green on red and white MAs. See the chart NASDAQ:SEDG
Aug 16 18.00 call is 1.60 which is 8.5% (unassigned return) and 4.4% (assigned return)
Be Awesome
Raj
CIO
Unconventional Intelligence
Risk: Enter at your own Risk. Investment mindset differs from person to person. Method may not be suitable for your investment objectives.
Disclaimer: I don't provide investment advice, I'm entering the market with my own account.I don't try to accurate in entry, because most of the time I or my client own this stock, so we only look approximate change in trend. It is not necessary you have to do the same.
FSLR -- MAR 4TH 51/54/70.5/73.5 IRON CONDORGoing small here, given the fact that the solar space has been a bit of wild of late ... .
Metrics:
FSLR March 4th 51/54/70/73.5
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $71/contract
Buying Power Effect: $229/contract
Notes: Ordinarily, I pass on stuff that doesn't have at least a 1.00 credit in it. I could naturally go short strangle, but don't want to tie up the buying power if the thing goes awry (a 53.5/71.5 short strangle would get you a 1.44 credit). That being said, I don't have a ton of stuff going on (mostly waiting for longer-term setups to play out), so I figured I'd play it just to keep some buying power engaged ... . Look to take it off at 50% max profit.
THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- HD, FSLR, CRM, LOW, TGT, BIDUHere's are next weeks earnings plays that I'm thinking of playing via options, assuming the implied volatility rank "stars" line up correctly ... :
HD: announces on Tues 2/23 before market open.The rank is 55, the implied 32, neither of which is that great. If IV doesn't pop, I'll pass.
FSLR: announces on Tues 2/23 after market close. With a rank of 72 and an implied of 69, it's good to go .
LOW: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Its rank is 65; implied, 35, so it's kind of the edge. Like HD, its volatility needs to pop a bit for me to play.
TGT: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Rank: 57; implied 33. Needs to pop.
CRM: announces on Wed 2/24 after market close. Also good to go with a rank of 71 and an implied of 60.
BIDU: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. It's good to go with rank at 72, implied at 60.
EOG: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Good to go, but I don't think I've played this one recently, which is surprising because it's an oil and gas play, and that sector's been hot volatility wise.
HLF: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Also good to go, rank and implied volatility wise.
I'll post setups the day immediately preceding the announcement if it looks like they're still good plays.
FSLR -- EARNINGS PLAYS VIA OPTIONSFSLR announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the final hours of the NY session.
Here's two setups, one of which is an undefined risk trade; the other, defined:
FSLR March 4th 55.5/73.5
Probability of Profit: 74%
Max Profit: $144 per contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
FSLR March 4th 53/56/72/75 Iron Condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $79 per contract
Buying Power Effect: $221/contract
Notes: I had to goof around with the iron condor setup, since the strikes "thin out" at 75 and increase to 5 dollar increments, making it difficult to set your short strikes at the 85% probability OTM strike with your long options 3-4 strikes out from that, so the max profit isn't what I'd ordinarily like to see.