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by Golden_candle
Market News Report - 08 December 2024The dollar was back to its usual dominance in the past week, concluded by a positive Non-Farm Payroll figure last Friday. The yen also picked up the bullish momentum it began last week. It will probably be a volatile week with the release of four interest rate decisions. Let's explore whether our latest market news report reveals notable technical and fundamental changes in the major forex pairs. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%, emphasizing that inflation is moving towards the 2% target but is still slightly elevated. Keep an eye on the new inflation rate on Wednesday. October's labour data was down, mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating an 88% chance (up from 67%) chance of a 25 bps cut this week. Furthermore, last Friday's NFP print suggested that there is nothing to stop the Fed from cutting rates. While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it has retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. December 6's jobs data indicates that CPI this week will be important and closely watched by markets. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut on Thursday (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Still, a pullback may be due at some point. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Other contributing factors to a pressured euro are bumpy French politics and the prospect of a German snap election. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Furthermore, he forecasted four rate cuts in 2025, which is a tad bit more dovish than market pricing. A big miss in the GDP print on Friday, could be enough to send the GBP lower this week. However, inflation data still remains crucial. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 89% chance (up from 84%) of a rate hold by the BoE next Thursday. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently kept its interest rate unchanged, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. Diarise the upcoming AUD interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday. The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD is very close to testing the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD is close to the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market. Long-term outlook: bearish. Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut in October. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Markets indicate a likelihood of a cut on Wednesday (maybe another 50 bps). The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. This market is very close to the fresh key resistance at 1.41781. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 68% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) in the Sept. 26 meeting. The Swiss National (SNB) also indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. STIR pricing indicates a 57% chance of a 50 bps cut on Thursday. The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result as it was for September). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major resistance level at 0.922444, while the major support level is at 0.83326. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum. EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF are all the currencies with new upcoming interest rate decisions. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
Market News Report - 01 December 2024After weeks of dominance, the dollar finally took a backseat. The Japanese yen was among the most bullish forces. It found strength against markets like CAD and AUD, aligning with its bullish fundamentals. Let's explore if there are notable changes in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut in December. Still, FOMC minutes last week suggest the Fed remains data-dependent. Keep an eye on the new Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment announcement on Friday. While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Jobs data this week is key to deciding the next near-term directional move for the dollar. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut in December (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations. Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the recent election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Still, negative US moves would likely result in a pullback for EUR. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight pullback in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Another contributor is the latest Consumer Price Index print, which came in hotter than expected on November 20. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 84% chance of a rate hold by the BoE later this month. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged recently, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD looks to test the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD isn't far from the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market. Long-term outlook: bearish. Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut a few weeks ago. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.39468. While the new target in the meanwhile is 1.41058, let's see what happens around the former area in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 30% chance of a 50 bps cut and 70% chance of a 25 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar still remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum. The US NFP and unemployment rate are the main high-impact economic events to watch for this week. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few months. The only exception is the Australian dollar, where we have changed from 'weak bullish' to 'neutral.' As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
Are Funded Trading Accounts Right for You? In the trading world, funded accounts are becoming increasingly popular. But are they the right fit for your trading journey? Let’s break it down: 🔥 What Is a Funded Account? It’s simple: You trade using someone else’s capital, usually provided by a proprietary trading firm. In exchange, you keep a percentage of the profits, often ranging from 70% to 90%. ⚖️ Pros of Funded Accounts: No Risk to Your Personal Capital: You’re trading someone else’s money. Access to Larger Capital: Grow your profits with higher lot sizes and better leverage. Keeps You Disciplined: Many firms require strict adherence to risk management rules. 💡 Challenges to Consider: Evaluation Phase: Most firms require you to pass a challenge or verification, proving your profitability and discipline. Daily/Overall Drawdowns: Strict rules on losses can be unforgiving. Profit Splits: A portion of your earnings goes to the firm. 📈 Is It for You? If you’re confident in your strategy and risk management, funded accounts can be an incredible opportunity. If you’re still learning or struggle with discipline, it might be better to focus on improving your skills first. 🏆 Popular Funded Account Firms: FTMO, Alpha Capital Group, The5ers, and more! Research each one to find the best fit for your style. Have you tried a funded account? What was your experience like? Let’s discuss below!
by Safaric
FTMUSDT - An irreplaceable opportunity!Weekly chart displays a breakout of a huge symmetrical triangle since more than 45months! The price projection for the symmetrical triangle is the vertical distance between the base and the upper side pf tge pattern ...this distance shown as a green arrow which shown in the chart That mains our target is 17$ , this target matches with the 1.618 fib level. The FTM Phantom Coin Fund was backed with $200 million to accelerate the migration of partners for the launch of Sonic and its S token. SONIC + FTM = S It will be a huge event that was scheduled for last September and was postponed to December. The team's decision to postpone is appropriate. Best regards Ceciliones 🎯
FLong
by ceciliones
2
Market News Report - 24 November 2024It's become clichéd to report another bullish week for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and the British pound were among the most bearish. The dynamic with the greenback is interesting in that, despite the bearish fundamentals, the currency is still pretty strong. Let's cover this idea and more in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points/bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with STIR pricing indicating one more 25 bps cut in December. However, Powell stated on November 14th that the economy isn't giving signals that the Fed must be in a rush to cut rates. The Dixie continues to head north, touching the key resistance at 107.348. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their decisions going forward. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations. Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. Actually, the dollar is among the euro's main drivers. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.04485. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight increase in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, incoming CPI (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of last month. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish mood. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged last week, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. Diarise the upcoming CPI for the Aussie on Wednesday. Despite the slightly bullish fundamentals, the dollar is dominant against the Aussie. The key resistance level lies ahead at 0.69426, while the major support remains at 0.63484. Despite this bearish setup, consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD in your overall analysis. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut this Tuesday of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. While lingering around 0.58498, another considerable support target is nearby at 0.57736. Long-term outlook: bearish. A 50 bps rate cut is predicted for the meeting on Tuesday. They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. As with the Aussie, potential headwinds for NZD are considered due to the trade tariff issues between China and the United States. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.39468. While the new target in the meanwhile is 1.41058, let's see what happens around the former area. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the October CPI came in weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. The NZD interest rate decision is the main high-impact economic event this week. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few months. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
FTMO Trading: Bullish Trend in a Rising ChannelThe FTMO market is currently in a strong bullish phase, moving within a well-defined rising channel. The price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, showing strong upward momentum. This suggests that buyers are in control, and the overall market sentiment remains positive. Key Observations: Rising Channel Formation: The market is following a clear upward sloping channel, with price respecting both the support and resistance lines. We’ve seen several successful bounces off the lower trendline, which indicates a strong buying interest. Bullish Trend Continuation: Given the market structure and the current price action, we anticipate the bullish trend to continue. The price could look for the next key resistance level at the upper trendline of the rising channel. Entry Opportunities: Look for pullbacks to the lower channel boundary or any bullish reversal patterns to enter long positions. The market is still trending upward, so any retracement can be seen as an opportunity to buy. Target Levels: Keep an eye on the upper boundary of the channel as a potential target. If the price breaks above this level, it could signal an acceleration in bullish momentum. Risk Management: Always ensure proper risk management. Use stop losses below the recent swing lows or channel support for optimal trade setups. Thankyou Stay with me...
FLong
by Naveed_Azam_Zarrar
Market News Report - 17 November 2024The US dollar is showing no let-up as it was, yet again, a bullish force. While there were up-trending currencies like CHF and JPY, USD is definitely stealing the show. But what do the fundamentals say for the greenback and the other currencies? Let's cover them in more detail in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. As predicted by STIR (short-term interest rate) markets, the Fed cut the interest rate by 25 basis points/bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While there is some mildly positive economic data, the bearish bias remains for USD, with STIR pricing indicating one more 25 bps cut in December. However, Powell stated on the 14th of November that the economy isn't giving signals that the Fed must be in a rush to cut rates. The Dixie continues to head north and is very close to the key resistance at 107.348. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their decisions going forward. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Furthermore, any big misses in economic data, such as labour and GDP (Gross Domestic Product), would support the expectation of cuts. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations (although the Eurozone Gross Domestic/GDP growth was above expectations). Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.04485. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be continuously sold off. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight increase in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Speaking of which, watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for GBP scheduled for Wednesday. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. The nearest key support is at 1.26156 (which it has just touched), while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, incoming CPI (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. Unlike in July this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted not long ago that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). As recently as 31 October 2024, Ueda also stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections were realised. Interestingly, you can diarise his upcoming speech on Thursday. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth also provide the potential for upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive. Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged last week, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. As with GBP/USD, the Aussie is currently more of a seller's market than a buyer's one. The key resistance level lies ahead at 0.69426, while the major support remains at 0.63484. Despite this bearish setup, consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD in your overall analysis. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It's crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it has just touched. It will be interesting to see how it reacts this week. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' A 50bps rate cut is predicted for the meeting later this month. They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. As with the Aussie, potential headwinds for NZD are considered due to the trade tariff issues between China and the United States. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.34197. We have to go onto a higher time frame for the next target. For now, let's see what happens around this area. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the October CPI came in weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. Inflation is a common theme among central banks. Watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for GBP on Wednesday. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI