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Ftmo

Dax daily: 30 Jun 2020The week started with a price correction and Dax reached 12 151 as we anticipated. Take a look at how nicely this zone functioned. This was the level where buyers and sellers battled over the dominance of further price development. Bulls won this call and took Dax back to the consolidation range. Again. The price is now in a balanced area where it is understood as fairly valued. The session was closed in the black numbers and at its daily high. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's session could be optimistic for buyers. As per the Statistical application, there is an increased probability of breaking yesterday's high, which, unfortunately, is relatively very near so it doesn't offer good RR. The consolidation range is quite wide and it's not yet fully clear where the price might head. The resistance at 12 494 is relatively far away but if we had to favour one side of the story, we have a bullish bias in the mid to long-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 29 Jun 2020On Friday, we anticipated that Dax will remain in its consolidation range above 12 151, however, sellers found enough strength to break below this zone, keeping the price suppressed. Not only the session was closed at its daily low but the significant volume of orders moved lower as well and this signifies the sellers' dominance. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 829 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Monday's session started with a descending gap, yet the bearish sentiment doesn't fully control the initial trading hour. The price is confidently heading towards the weekend gap closure at the time of writing. For today, we have two important zones marked nearby - 12 151 as the resistance and 11 829 as the support. It is quite possible that we'll see some correction of Friday's drop before bears step in again to target 11 829. Have a good trading week!
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Jun 2020Yesterday's morning session was up and down around 12 151 level but eventually, buyers took dominance and Dax is now back in the same consolidation range of the past week. The price closed at its daily high and this signifies a lost battle of bears. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's session started near yesterday's close. Nothing provides hints about a clear dominance of either buyers or sellers when the price is midway through the consolidation range. We fight the price at the long-term fair values, although we'd love to see any clear directional move to either side. The current situation doesn't provide reasonable trading hints nor statistical probabilities. We anticipate the session to remain in the range between 12 151 and 12 494.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2020As we predicted yesterday, Dax made its way outside of the consolidation range when it broke out of the resistance at 12 494. Just as we wrote, this breakout was a clear signal to retest another S/R level in the row and that is exactly what happened. Dax continued to hit the resistance at 12 595 where the price bounced back down and returned to the range of the past week. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's price action gave us a signal that there is a mood in the markets and Dax has tendencies to continue higher. Considering that yesterday's breakout led to a retest of another S/R zone, we can understand this as the confirmation of the sentiment continuation probability. The major US indices futures also play in our favour as they gain in the morning trading hours and the correlation with Dax is often quite likely.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 23 Jun 2020Dax gave us a fake signal yesterday when it faked-out below the 12 151 S/R zone. The price very quickly returned to the consolidation range of the past week, levelled between 12 151 and 12 494. The daily range was relatively standard and we haven't even seen much volatility. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMI reports Today's session hypothesis Considering the fact Dax hasn't moved away from its consolidation range lasting one week already, we have no reasons changing the outlook. The Statistical Application also doesn't generate any probabilities in these situations and Dax awaits any decisive catalyst that will propel the price development. This could be today's PMI reports from the Eurozone or volatility in the main US Indices. These appear to be on the crossroad between the artificial positivism of re-opening the US economy, as created by Trump's administration, and a fear of the upcoming second wave of the pandemic. We now need to monitor the price action but mainly the breakout from the current consolidation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 22 Jun 2020The last session of the past week turned out well for sellers. They managed to get down to a support level at 12 151 where we saw a slight correction before Dax broke to the downside and closed the week lower at 12 112. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 829 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis After a long time, today's session opened without a weekend gap. Dax hasn't moved anywhere yet to determine the initial directional push. Following Friday's session outcome, we slightly favour bears now. Their target could now be the previous fair value from 15 Jun, laying at 11 829. Our upper S/R zone will certainly be an interesting one as it could be a decisive factor between buyers and sellers. Should the price return back above, Dax would trade in the same consolidation range where it was last week.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 19 Jun 2020Thursday's session was quite interesting. We anticipated that Dax was likely to trade in its range and the resistance at 12 494 really served to just reject the upward price move. It is apparent this S/R zone is valid and those who had limit orders around this level can pride themselves with nice profits. Dax then moved to the middle of the range and we start fresh from the same levels, again. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Friday's session starts near the previous day and the first trading hour is dominated by buyers. It seems that bulls are likely to target 12 494 yet again and we stick to our yesterday's bias. We anticipate the retest and/or breakout of the nearest S/R zones and we incline more towards 12 494's side. If buyers don't want to go above there, the support at 12 151 isn't much stronger.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
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Dax daily: 18 Jun 2020We were unsure about the price development yesterday as no hints were present. We clearly defined the range of 12 151 - 12 494 and the price stayed there all day long. The session was a slow one with the range being relatively narrow. Dax was moving sideways just to close the day near break even. Our zones remain unchanged. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:30 CEST - SNB Policy Rate + Statement Today's session hypothesis Dax opens the day with a small descending gap. We anticipate the retest of yesterday's close and trading in the defined range. The nearest S/R zones will play a major role and the price action around either of these will be a decisive factor for further price estimation. The breakout will be a major focus for us. We have a day filled with macroeconomic events so stay alert.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 17 Jun 2020Yesterday's session started well in line with the auction market theory. The price first dropped to retest our support at 12 151 and bounced back up to continue higher, even above the open. Buyers lost momentum mid-day and Dax dropped sharply to retest the same support once again. The session then closed nearly break even. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis We'll disappoint all traders who expect a clear direction analysis today. The price hasn't eventually gone anywhere yesterday and is currently in the middle of two important S/R zones. We don't have any indications or signals about the direction, yet we incline more to the bullish side. The retest of 12 494 is expected in the short to the mid-term horizon. Contrary, should 12 151 be broken to the downside, space opens for more sell-offs.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Jun 2020Yesterday's session showed us very clearly that buyers don't give out their gains of the past month. Dax was ascending since the open, without any pullback or correction. The price sliced through the 11 734 S/R zone without any sign of slowing down and closed the day up at 12 084 near its daily high. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today's session hypothesis Against all odds, we haven't witnessed the low volatility as expected. The gap today suggests the volatility is likely to stay in the markets today as well. Dax opened the day with an ascending gap, priced at 12 288. The price is now above the S/R zone of 12 151, which is now being eyed as the most important level for bullish traders. We anticipate a pullback towards this area where buyers are likely to show their strength. If there is no will to get to 12 151, the resistance of our interest lays at 12 494 which is a very nice target to be retested.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 Jun 2020The only thing certain on Friday were our S/R zones. Have a look at how our resistance at 12 151 functioned perfectly. Dax went to retest this level also as it was the VPOC of previous session and the price exemplarily bounced away to offer enough opportunities for profitable trades. Besides this, the session hasn't really presented us with any more interesting trading opportunities. Important zones Resistance: 11 734 Support: 11 412 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we cannot use our Statistical application as the weekend gap is beyond standards. The gap being sized 393 points has minimum historical prints. Yes, Dax truly surprised us when this week opened with a huge descending gap below the 11 734 S/R zone. The retest and closure of the gap in today's session are the least probable. Taking this situation into account, further descend towards 11 412 is more likely or might also see consolidation around 11 734.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 12 Jun 2020We mentioned it in our analysis yesterday that previous days signalled a bearish correction and could further support sellers. This turned out valid and Dax headed south. The price even broke the support at 12 151 and almost reached the next support at 11 734. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 734 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened the day with 166 points gap, correcting portion of yesterday's fall. We don't plan to trade the gap situation. The price is midway through yesterday's session and it doesn't provide good hints now. We are not fully clear about the direction, S/R zones are defined so we'll be eying either of those, depending on the initial momentum. Global Indices, including Dax, feared a second wave of pandemic yesterday and chances are that this market mood could further play a role in the upcoming days.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 11 Jun 2020Yesterday's session started with another sell-off and market participants closed the gap and retested the support at 12 494. The price then bounced back up but buyers were not strong enough to take Dax higher. The session closed at its daily low, right at the support zone of 12 494. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The gap is sized 217 points with low closing probability Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opens the session with 217 points sized descending gap. It is apparent that yesterday's bearish day sparked the downside momentum, propelled by the FOMC. After two weeks of growth, it is now clear the bullish trend ended. Dax is now priced 12 300 and the support of 12 151 is in the near vicinity and this is the first interesting S/R zone to take into account. As the resistance, we can mark the 12494 zone which is yesterday's support and the closing price of the session. The statistical probability of retesting this area today is low, yet this scenario can actually happen.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jun 2020A couple of times already, we mentioned that a correction is inevitable. That's exactly what we saw yesterday and our uptrend continuation bias along with the statistical probability of breaking previous day's High hadn't happened. Dax reacted with the sell-off right after the open and in correlation with the risk-off sentiment across the board. The downfall was held by the support level at 12 494 and the price was just slowly correcting its fall for the rest of the day. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592, 12 494 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 20:00 CEST - Fed Rate + FOMC Statement 20:30 CEST - FOMC Press Conference Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's drop was caused by the risk-off sentiment and profit-taking after long runs of global Indices. It was commodity currencies and Indices that were weakening, while the safe-haven currencies gained considerably. Overnight, Dax slightly corrected its drop as the ascending gap gives us a signal to retest previous days' VPOC. The price is in the middle of the range between the support of 12 494 and the resistance of 12 882 and we now need to monitor the price action impulses to further establish directional bias. However, we incline to buyer's favour in the short-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jun 2020Yesterday's price action has, again, brought great profiting opportunities and Dax added another day to its bullish uptrend, even though the daily range was relatively standard. Right with the open of the European session, the price retested VPOC from Friday and continued consistently towards our resistance of 12 882 where it exemplarily bounced back lower and we were presented with another long entry opportunity on the pullback, below Friday's fair value. Dax eventually broke the resistance and closed at it's high at 12 934. Important zones Resistance: 13 119 Support: 12 592, 12 882 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of yesterday's High breakout is 90% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax has opened the day in the near vicinity of the 12 882 S/R zone. We see good chances right at the beginning of the session, especially for closing the gap towards yesterday's close and also retesting this value with the probable scenario of bullish continuation. The Statistical application also favours this thesis as the indication is for a 90% probability of yesterday's High breakout. We don't have any fundamental releases scheduled for the day hence we stick with our hypothesis uptrend continuation, best on pullbacks until we see some clear signs of a correction.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 08 Jun 2020Welcome to the new trading week. Our analysis on Friday turned out very successful, again. According to our statistical application, we saw the closure outside of the previous day range as this hypothesis had a high statistical probability. Dax continued in its bullish traction all the way towards the resistance level at 12 882 and the NFP print helped considerably in this. We haven't yet seen the correction. Important zones Resistance: 12 882, 13 119 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis A strong uptrend is underway and nothing suggests it should change. For some time already, we anticipate the correction, but Friday's NFP release hasn't really supported this vision, quite the contrary. There is a wave of optimism in the US markets but this is considered unsubstantiated if not false by many analysts. We'll only see the real economic impact of the coronavirus crisis with a delay. The US Indexes reacted to the labour data with obvious positivism and Nasdaq has printed another new record high, wiping out the entire crisis sell-off as if nothing happened. Dax is enjoying this correlated wave of markets optimism. The volume of orders has shifted higher to 12 800 and this week opened at this level, without a significant gap. Until we get some signs of a correction, we prefer to follow the trend with entries at pullbacks.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Oct 2019We saw another bullish happiness for Dax. After the initial long, buyers took a lunch break and the price resumed its climb later in the afternoon session. The resistance zone at 12 598 was broken and functioned as a support. Dax formed a new high of the recent past weeks but didn't hold the throne for long. The price then closed the day at 12 624. Important zones Resistance: 12 676 Support: 12 598 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened with a descending gap today. Before we finished writing this analysis, the gap has closed quickly. Buyers respected the support zone at 12 598. If the current bullish sentiment holds up, the retest of yesterday's high at 12 676 is very likely. That level is now an important resistance zone and should it be broken, we see another target at 12 730 which is the August high. Dax traders seem to be optimistic also due to the favourable Brexit echoes we hear recently. On the other hand, if the market mood changes, we are looking at a decline towards 12 483.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
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