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Stocks - What Next?Idea for indices: - As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts). - China continuing to lead down. - Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere. - ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE. - Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight. I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation. Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due. Already short US indices (long vol). Nikkei real performance (relative to currency): Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next: GLHF - DPT
TVC:NI225Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
UKX Hourly - Nice pullback off resistance Nice pullback this morning off the top of the megaphone formation identified yesterday. There is double support around 7015/25 = lateral and upward sloping. A break below here targets 6980 and 6940. 6900 would see the bottom of the megaphone formation and the next large support region shaded in red. My bias would like to see it lower - but ideally would need to wait for confirmation. Also need to bare in mind that its not unusual to see selling into month end followed by a rally at the beginning of the new month
TVC:UKX
by gillyblore
GBP/USD: Complete Weekly Outlook (July 12-16) 🔥My complete weekly outlook for GBP/USD. Leave me a comment on how you would trade the pair, and please hit "LIKE" and follow for more trade ideas like this. Thanks! FUNDAMENTALS: After reaching fresh 2-week highs on Friday, the GBPUSD pair fell sharply overnight as the US dollar firmed with higher UST yields. Markets remain cautious on GBP as the United Kingdom proceeds with their reopening plan, despite a surge in daily infections to around 31k. However, hospitalizations remain low, 90% of the UK population has covid-19 antibodies, and the country is also one of the leaders in vaccination rates. This supports my bullish bias in the currency for the week, assuming risk sentiment remains supportive and the USD continues to slide. Latest Headlines: USD News: - US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Recovery targets 92.85 - US futures mixed ahead of North American trading - Fed's Barkin: If labour market takes longer to recover, tapering goes a little later - Fed's Barkin: Labor market hasn't healed enough to taper bond buying – WSJ - US Dollar Index regains traction around 92.20 GBP News: - GBP/USD: Sterling set to suffer as “Freedom Day” may be less free than earlier anticipated - GBP/USD now targets 1.3900 and beyond – UOB - GBP/USD retreats from two-week tops, flirts with session lows near 1.3885-80 area - Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD teases 1.3900 on softer USD, risk-on mood - GBP/USD teases 1.3900 on softer USD, risk-on mood - Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD in a third week of declines? Delta, data and dollar Upcoming Market Reports: Here are the most important market reports for GBP/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone): Tuesday at 12:30: USD CPI m/m (Expected: 0.5% , Previous: 0.6% ) Tuesday at 12:30: USD Core CPI m/m (Expected: 0.4% , Previous: 0.7% ) Tuesday at 17:01: USD 30-y Bond Auction (Expected: , Previous: 2.17|2.3 ) Wednesday at 06:00: GBP CPI y/y (Expected: 2.2% , Previous: 2.1% ) Wednesday at 12:30: USD PPI m/m (Expected: 0.6% , Previous: 0.8% ) Wednesday at 12:30: USD Core PPI m/m (Expected: 0.4% , Previous: 0.7% ) Wednesday at 14:30: USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -6.9M ) Wednesday at 16:00: USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies (Expected: , Previous: ) Thursday at 10:00: GBP MPC Member Saunders Speaks (Expected: , Previous: ) Thursday at 12:30: USD Unemployment Claims (Expected: 350K , Previous: 373K ) Thursday at 12:30: USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Expected: 27.8 , Previous: 30.7 ) Thursday at 13:15: USD Industrial Production m/m (Expected: 0.6% , Previous: 0.8% ) Thursday at 13:30: USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies (Expected: , Previous: ) Friday at 12:30: USD Retail Sales m/m (Expected: -0.5% , Previous: -1.3% ) Friday at 12:30: USD Core Retail Sales m/m (Expected: 0.4% , Previous: -0.7% ) Friday at 14:00: USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Expected: 86.5 , Previous: 86.4 ) INTERMARKET: Yields: Yield differentials remain supportive for the pair due to the slide in US 2y yields over the last two weeks. This is a bullish sign for the pair. SENTIMENT: CoT: The GBP is one of the rare majors that saw an increase in positioning against the USD in the last week (along with the JPY). Net long positioning in GBP rose to $1.9 billion, but it's worth noting that fast money has reached a 12-month extreme, which poses a downside risk for the pound. Currency Strength Index: GBP is slowly building its bull trend while the USD remains somewhat flat against other majors for the last 6 trading days. Today, risk-off supported the USD and JPY overnight, but the picture is changing ahead of the NY open, with risk currencies (and the pound) recovering some ground and the USD retreating from daily highs. Risk Reversals: While risk reversals are still skewed to the downside, it's worth noting that GBP call options are recovering vs similar out-of-the-money put options, signaling that investors are increasingly protecting against higer prices in the pound. * Comment: In the FX market, risk reversals refer to the difference between the implied volatility of the most popular out-of-the-money calls and puts with the same expiration. Higher demand for an options contract increased its volatility and price. Therefore, a positive risk reversal signals that upside protection in the pair is relatively more expensive than downside protection, suggesting that investors are speculating on a rise in the currency. TECHNICALS Price-Action: GBP/USD broke above a bearish trendline and reached fresh 2-week highs, were sellers pushed the price lower overnight. The pair is now finding support at the broken trendline, near the 50% Fib level of the latest bullish impulse move and a horizontal support area. The short-term trend is turning bullish, but 1.3830 (and 1.3815, the 61.8% Fib) need to hold for buying opportunities to emerge. Pound pairs are famous for their deeper corrections, so the 61.8% Fib may be in play. However, risk tolerant traders may also use the 1.3830 level (which aligns with a horizontal support) to build their long positions. It's also worth noting that today's (Monday) bear run is accompanied with decreasing volume, signaling that a turning point may be near. Levels to follow (Liquidity): Major resistance: 1.3909 (weekly high) Minor support: 1.3815 (61.8% Fib) Major support: 1.3750 (weekly lows and daily trendline) == SUMMARY == UK's "Freedom Day" (July 19 when all restrictions should be lifted by the government) could provide further support for the pound despite higher daily infection rates. The number of hospitalizations and fatal outcomes has been greatly reduced, and the majority of the UK population has covid antibodies, which supports my constructive outlook for the pair. Pullbacks (like the one today) could be used to enter long in GBP/USD. Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
3
GBP/USD Daily Outlook: 1.3735-50 Key Support to Charge GBP BullsHow to trade GBP/USD today. FUNDAMENTALS: The US dollar remained bid despite falling UST yields over concerns that global economic recovery is slowing down. The UK government is likely to go ahead with easing restrictions despite growing cases of Covid infections, which could prompt markets to reassess their bullish bias on the pound. However, as for now, the reaction of GBP has been muted, which signals that investors consider it unlikely that a renewed virus outbreak could derail the UK economic recovery. The UK lacks any major market reports until Friday, when BoE Governor Bailey is expected to deliver a speech. This means that the pound could be at the mercy of USD dynamics. Latest Headlines: USD News: - US Dollar Index to hit new year highs above 93.45 – Westpac - US futures extend fall in European morning trade - US Dollar Index eases from tops, back near 92.60 - USD to remain bid as optimism over a robust global growth is tested – MUFG - US 10-year yields face strong support at 1.30% - UOB - US 10-year Treasury yields bounce off five-month low amid covid concerns GBP News: - GBP/USD Price Analysis: Rebound remains capped below 1.3800 - GBP/USD risks extra losses below 1.3735 – UOB - Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD holds on to corrective bounce off weekly low - GBP/USD remains depressed below 1.3800 as coronavirus woes probe UK unlock plans - UK data - RICS House Price Balance for June: 83% (vs. expected 77%) - GBP/USD Price Analysis: Wednesday's Doji teases bulls around 1.3800 Upcoming Market Reports: Here are the most important market reports for GBP/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone): Thursday at 12:30: USD Unemployment Claims (Expected: 345K , Previous: 364K ) Thursday at 15:00: USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: -4.0M , Previous: -6.7M ) Friday at 10:00: GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks INTERMARKET: Yields: Falling US yields pushed the 2-year yield differentials (UK-US) higher, but the pair fails to follow suit due to USD strength. Interestingly, GBPUSD also failed to follow EURUSD for a push higher, despite both pairs being highly correlated. TECHNICALS The 1.3750 level remains an extremely important intraday support. A fall below the level on extended USD strength could see retest of the daily trendline around 1.3735, followed by uncharted territories. If EURUSD (and US yields) are of any help, the pair is poised to break above a bullish wedge given the 1.3750 level holds. The latest 1-hour candlestick suggests some stopping volume, and volume spread analysis for today generally supports further strength in the pair. Levels to follow (Liquidity): Major resistance: 1.39 (weekly high) Minor resistance: 1.38 (upper wedge line) Major support: 1.3735-1.3750 (weekly lows) == SUMMARY == A push above 1.38 could see further strength in the pair given the 1.3750 level holds. However, bear in mind that we could see a dip into liquidity below 1.3735 (possibly to the 1.37 level) before lower UST yields kick in and attract buyers in the pair. For this, we would also need a risk-on shift with the US open. Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
by MujkanovicFX
FX Morning Meeting & Top Trade Ideas for July 08🌐 MORNING MEETING - MARKET PREVIEW - JULY 08 🔴 USD INDEX The US dollar retreated from highs after the FOMC minutes release with the UST 2y-10y curve continuing its bull flattening. The falling yields suggest that the US dollar could see some selling pressure, at least against low-yielding currencies. However, with risk aversion present in the markets ahead of the weekend, downsides in the USD may be limited. USD bulls could continue to flex their muscles against risk currencies. Today's US Unemployment Claims are expected slightly lower than in the previous month (345k vs 364k expected). 🔴 GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS Morning traders, global markets entered a broad risk-off mode after the FOMC minutes showed that the Fed is not as hawkish as previously expected. Asian markets closed lower (Hang Seng is down 2.90%), and European markets followed their Asian peers with losses that exceed 1%. US futures are also down ahead of the NY open. 🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH Surprise surprise, the risk-off scissors are here! JPY and CHF are the strongest, while AUD, NZD and CAD are racing who will print the biggest loss. 🔴 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Early in the morning London time, RBA's Lowe held a webinar speech about monetary policy, but didn't deliver anything the markets don't already know. The remaining calendar is light with key reports being the US unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. Inventories have fallen more than anticipated for six previous periods, which is helpful to have on mind. 🔴 TOP TRADE IDEAS FOR JULY 08 - Long USD against high-yielders - While falling UST yields could pose a bearish risk for USD, risk-off may still support the currency. - Long low-yielders - If technicals allow
TVC:DXY
by MujkanovicFX
🌐 FX MORNING MEETING: Let's prepare for the trading day June 30Hi traders, here is our FX Morning Meeting for June 30. This market overview will help you find market opportunities where they actually exist ("Trades of the Day section"), based on a number of fundamental, intermarket, and sentiment signals. Leave us a comment what you want to trade today! 🌐 MORNING MEETING - JUNE 30 🔴 GLOBAL MARKETS (main chart) Morning traders, global markets remain in a cautious mode ahead of the US NFP release and holiday ("event risks"). This has supported safe havens so far and put selling pressure on risk assets. Asian markets closed mixed/unchanged, while European markets entered a strong downtrend this morning. 🔴 US DOLLAR INDEX Looking at the USDx, the currency traded higher today despite slightly lower US yields, likely fueled by risk-off flows. The 92.40 resistance remains a strong obstacle to the upside, but we could see additional strength in the currency during the day. 🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH Our currency strength index shows a typical risk-off pattern: JPY and USD are among the strongest (together with GBP), while CAD, AUD, and NZD are the weakest currencies so far. 🔴 ECONOMIC CALENDAR The economic calendar is packed with reports today, although few of them will have market-moving potential. China PMIs came in weaker than expected (negative for AUD). EUR CPI Flash Estimate (an early reading of eurozone inflation) matched forecasts (1.9%). Upcoming events to follow: - US ADP NFP Change (expected 555k) - US Chicago PMI (expected 70.2) - US Pending Home Sales (an important leading indicator, expected -1.1%) 🔴 TRADES OF THE DAY (JUNE 30) - We hold to our short AUD/USD and AUD/JPY trades (Take-Profit hit, remaining position at Breakeven) - Today's trade setups are similar to yesterday's: Long safe-havens (USD, JPY) and short high-beta risk currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD).
by MujkanovicFX