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FTSE to find difficulty maintaining levels above 7000FTSE has bounced smartly from above the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November, with prices now pressuring the 6956.70 retracement. Extension to congestion around 7000 is highlighted from rising momentum studies, but any further gains are expected to prove difficult to maintain, as the Tension Indicator, (not shown), continues to weaken and investors maintain a cautious stance. A close above 7000, however, would improve sentiment and open up highs towards the critical 7129.83 high of October. Support is raised to congestion around 6800, but a close below the 6615/76~ lows is needed to confirm continuation of the October bear trend and turn investors bearish once again.
TVC:UKX
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
4
Will 21st Century Fox make a bid for Sky PLC?The share price of Sky PLC spiked as much as 30% earlier today as news broke out about a potential takeover from 21st Century Fox. Fox already holds 39% of Sky PLCs shares and a preliminary deal has now been reached for Fox to purchase the remaining stake at £10.75 per share. Sky currently operates in five different countries within the EU and with the current weakness of the pound, UK companies are attractive for foreign companies. If this deal successfully goes through, it will greatly increase Fox’s market share of the Global Television industry. Rupert Murdoch, executing co-chairman of 21st Century Fox has made it clear previously that he would like to own all of Sky. Fox have until 6th January 2017 to make their intentions clear or walk away for six months due to the UK Takeover rules. From the chart, we can see that Sky PLCs share price shot up towards the trendline before retracing to close just below it. Over the next month, we would expect to see some retracement until Fox make their intentions clear or make a formal offer. If no deal is made or the shareholders of Sky reject the proposed offer, the share price of Sky would be expected to fall back towards £7.90. If a deal is successful, price could head in excess of £12.00 depending on Fox’s plans with Sky PLC.
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by priyesh
World Stock MarketA Trump victory meant a rally for the global dow of 76.5 points(+3.2%) 4 days before the elections for the next 21 days. By end of the year, it might reach the yearly high, close to 2490. Maybe next year we'll see 2500 and above it. Global Dow is an index with top 150 companies around the world. More on wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org More upside for DOWG if it stays above 2500. If by the end of 2015, the index goes below 2389, it's a start of a downtrend for the global stock market . It is expected for the Dow to stay at current levels or go for more upside. The first months of the next year will decide the future of the stock market for a good period of time. Trade idea is on the chart. Chart of DOWG since 2015:
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by justaname
FTSE Long-Term Forecast2016/11/17. FTSE 100 stock index forecast for next months and years. FTSE 100 forecast for November 2016. The forecast for beginning of November 6899. Maximum value 7454, while minimum 6610. Averaged index value for month 6999. Index at the end 7032, change for November 1.93%. FTSE forecast for December 2016. The forecast for beginning of December 7032. Maximum value 7597, while minimum 6737. Averaged index value for month 7133. Index at the end 7167, change for December 1.92%. FTSE 100 forecast for January 2017. The forecast for beginning of January 7167. Maximum value 7730, while minimum 6854. Averaged index value for month 7261. Index at the end 7292, change for January 1.74%. FTSE forecast for February 2017. The forecast for beginning of February 7292. Maximum value 7795, while minimum 6913. Averaged index value for month 7339. Index at the end 7354, change for February 0.85%. FTSE 100 forecast for March 2017. The forecast for beginning of March 7354. Maximum value 8059, while minimum 7147. Averaged index value for month 7541. Index at the end 7603, change for March 3.39%. FTSE forecast for April 2017. The forecast for beginning of April 7603. Maximum value 8413, while minimum 7461. Averaged index value for month 7854. Index at the end 7937, change for April 4.39%. FTSE 100 forecast for May 2017. The forecast for beginning of May 7937. Maximum value 8398, while minimum 7448. Averaged index value for month 7927. Index at the end 7923, change for May -0.18%. FTSE forecast for June 2017. The forecast for beginning of June 7923. Maximum value 8490, while minimum 7528. Averaged index value for month 7988. Index at the end 8009, change for June 1.09%. FTSE 100 forecast for July 2017. The forecast for beginning of July 8009. Maximum value 8598, while minimum 7624. Averaged index value for month 8086. Index at the end 8111, change for July 1.27%. RED/GREEN- Weekly S/R Levels to watch BLUE- Weekly/Monthly Channel UP
FLong
by iBrokers
The Aftermath of the Brexit Vote After the Brexit referendum vote on June 23, 2016, it’s apparent the United Kingdom is facing legal challenges invoking Article 50, making it official the UK is formally leaving the EU. Article 50 states that any member state may leave “in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”, this ambiguity has encouraged Remainers and Brexiters to use political means to achieve their desired objectives. Two week ago Brexit Secretary David Davis said MPs will not be allowed to vote on enacting Article 50 or formally cancelling the Brexit vote. Now, attorneys representing the UK government are stating MPs would “very likely” be able to final on the final outcome of the Brexit initiative. As stated by the Independent: “James Eadie QC was speaking in the High Court as part of the final day of the hearing to decide whether Prime Minister Theresa May can trigger Article 50 without parliamentary approval.” The decision of whether Theresa May can invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval will be announced on Tuesday October 25th, 2016. As Chris from MacroView Research pointed out in the article There's No Exit In Brexit , The UK will have financial difficulty leaving the European Union for the following: • The Brexit vote is a referendum and not a mandate. • The European Union had proved numerous times to ignore or force a new vote of national elections that differ from EU objectives. • The UK is economically on shaky ground as follows: 1. The widening trade deficit. 2. Massive public and private debt. 3. High taxes. 4. Elevated real estate prices indicate a bubble has formed. Brexiters suggest the UK should mimic Switzerland’s model of arranging bilateral agreements with the EU. However, the UK is a weaker position than Switzerland was in 1992 despite them already being in a recession at that time when they rejected the immigration policies of the EU. After the 1992 rejection of the EU mandates, Switzerland faced an elongated recession from June 1990 through June 2003, with brief exits. The Swiss recession of the 90s/early 2000s was the longest ever of all OECD countries by rejecting the European Union’s one market mandate. Being in the single market system is a precondition to Switzerland’s wealth and prosperity. While Switzerland achieved most of its mandates through its bilateral trade agreements, it took them ten years! Whereas the Article 50 mandate only allows 2 years to negotiate the terms of a Brexit. Tuesday’s announcement of the of whether Theresa May can invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval will no doubt shape the UK’s economy for the foreseeable future. If Theresa May can bypass parliament to invoke Article 50, we can expect the GBP to fall below 1.10. Furthermore, we can expect a decline in the Business Services and Finance industry which is comprised of 7% of the UK’s GDP to offset the recent growth of 0.5% in 2016 Q2 and 0.7% in 2016 Q1. If MPs can vote on the validity of the Brexit referendum, initially the markets will see a lift but the long-term the markets will be wary until the MPs vote for the outcome of Brexit. The GBP will face volatility until the Brexit referendum finally draws a conclusion, then a new baseline will be established. MacroView Research has analyzed three different Brexit scenarios and how the markets will react to the UK remaining in the EU to help our clients make sense of the noise and hedge against uncertainty. If you want to learn more follow @Macro_View on TWTR and go to macroview.co to get on our waiting list to subscribe.
TVC:UKX
by MacroView_Research